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mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 1 Cognitive Maps to Aid Structure an Effect Based Operation Plan Marcelo Zawadzki MSc Monica Maria De Marchi DSc 31. AUG. 2010 Objectives mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31.

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Marcelo Zawadzki – MSc Monica Maria De Marchi – DSc

Cognitive Maps to Aid Structure an Effect Based Operation Plan

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Objectives

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Contents

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Multiple perspectives Conflicting interests

Military Operations

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Military Operations presents characteristics

  • f unstructured problems.

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There is something more to be considered…

We are handling with Systems of Systems. That leads to hard complexity!

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How to deal with this kind of issues?

Problems Structuring Methods - PSM

PSM are a family of methods that uses modeling approaches to address messy or wicked problems faced by the managers of

  • rganizations. They seek to alleviate or

improve situations characterized by uncertainty, conflict and complexity.

Problem Structuring Methods Special Interest Group (http://www.orsoc.org.uk/region/study/problem.htm)

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Problems Structuring Methods

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  • Strategic Options Development and

Analysis (SODA)

  • Soft Systems Methodology (SSM)
  • Strategic Choice Approach (SCA)
  • Robustness Analysis
  • Drama Theory
  • Viable Systems Model (VSM)
  • System Dynamics (SD)
  • Decision Conferencing

(Mingers & Rosenhead, 2004).

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mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br Colin Eden (2003) 10

Our propose….

  • Cognitive map is a P.S. tool used to describe the

task of mapping the reasoning about a problem or issue.

  • The maps are a network of nodes and arrows as

links where the direction of the arrow implies believed causality and influences.

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  • Tactically and operationally the

stakeholders (commander, staff, others involved) can hold different points of view. Some times they are conflicting and it can be highlighted in the framework.

  • Strategically

the plans can be easily demonstrated and decisions can be analyzed by all involved. Consequences of a choosing strategy also can be analyzed.

Using cognitive maps as a tool in general Military Operations planning

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Effect Based Operations

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Action Action Action Action Action Action

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  • They can express exactly the cause – effect logic

that is encompassed on the EBO approach.

  • Desirable effects are directly presented and easy

to see.

  • Undesirable effects tend to be easily observed.
  • Trade offs become clear and allow decision

makers to choose a more appropriate course of action.

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EBO planning on a cognitive map framework:

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EBO planning approach:

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Analysing effects and discussing capabilities

CAPABILITIES EFFECTS

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Hypothetical Scenario

AREA “B” AREA “A” AREA “C”

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Operational Staff point of view

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Logistical Staff point of view

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Congregate Map

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Considerations:

  • Cognitive map is a interesting Soft tool to

manage conflicting military desirable effects under strategic, operational and tactical military restrictions of the operational plan.

  • The negative impacts of a desirable effects

can be observed on a congregated map.

  • Cognitive maps can indicate when the

military capabilities are optimally effective.

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  • Elaborating a cognitive map and analysis

during a real campaign planning requires time and a facilitator.

  • More studies should be done to verify the

employment and impacts in a real scenario.

Considerations:

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mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br Instituto de Estudos Avançados 23 09/09/2010

THANK YOU!

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