mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 1
Cognitive Maps to Aid Structure an Effect Based Operation Plan Marcelo Zawadzki – MSc Monica Maria De Marchi – DSc 31. AUG. 2010
Objectives mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 3
Contents mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 4
mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 5
Military Operations Conflicting interests Multiple perspectives mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 6
Military Operations presents characteristics of unstructured problems. There is something more to be considered… We are handling with Systems of Systems. That leads to hard complexity! mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 7
How to deal with this kind of issues? Problems Structuring Methods - PSM PSM are a family of methods that uses modeling approaches to address messy or wicked problems faced by the managers of organizations. They seek to alleviate or improve situations characterized by uncertainty, conflict and complexity . Problem Structuring Methods Special Interest Group (http://www.orsoc.org.uk/region/study/problem.htm) mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 8
Problems Structuring Methods Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) Strategic Choice Approach (SCA) Robustness Analysis Drama Theory Viable Systems Model (VSM) System Dynamics (SD) Decision Conferencing (Mingers & Rosenhead, 2004). mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 9
Our propose…. Cognitive map is a P.S. tool used to describe the task of mapping the reasoning about a problem or issue. The maps are a network of nodes and arrows as links where the direction of the arrow implies believed causality and influences. Colin Eden (2003) mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 10
Using cognitive maps as a tool in general Military Operations planning Tactically and operationally the stakeholders (commander, staff, others involved) can hold different points of view. Some times they are conflicting and it can be highlighted in the framework. Strategically the plans can be easily demonstrated and decisions can be analyzed by all involved. Consequences of a choosing strategy also can be analyzed. mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 11
Effect Based Operations Action Action Action Action Action Action mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 12
• They can express exactly the cause – effect logic that is encompassed on the EBO approach. • Desirable effects are directly presented and easy to see. • Undesirable effects tend to be easily observed. • Trade offs become clear and allow decision makers to choose a more appropriate course of action. mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 13
EBO planning on a cognitive map framework: mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 14
EBO planning approach: mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 15
Analysing effects and discussing capabilities CAPABILITIES EFFECTS mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 16
Hypothetical Scenario AREA “B” AREA “A” AREA “C” mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 17
Operational Staff point of view mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 18
Logistical Staff point of view mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 19
Congregate Map mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 20
Considerations: • Cognitive map is a interesting Soft tool to manage conflicting military desirable effects under strategic, operational and tactical military restrictions of the operational plan. • The negative impacts of a desirable effects can be observed on a congregated map. • Cognitive maps can indicate when the military capabilities are optimally effective. mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 21
Considerations: • Elaborating a cognitive map and analysis during a real campaign planning requires time and a facilitator. • More studies should be done to verify the employment and impacts in a real scenario. mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 22
THANK YOU! 09/09/2010 mzawa@ieav.cta.br monica@ieav.cta.br 31. AUG. 2010 Instituto de Estudos Avançados 23 23
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