Monte Ca rlo Ana lysis of Monte Ca rlo Ana lysis of Unc e rta intie s in the Ne the rla nds Unc e rta intie s in the Ne the rla nds NIR for 1990- - 2004 2004 NIR for 1990 Je roe n va n de r Sluijs (UU) Andre a Ra mire z Ra mire z (UU) Corry de Ke itze r (UU) Jos O livie r (MNP) L a ure ns Bra nde s (MNP) Se pte mbe r 27-28, 2007 Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Conte nts Conte nts Go a ls o f the re se a rc h Ma in me tho do lo g ic a l po ints Re sults a nd c o nc lusio ns Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
GOALS GOALS Asse ss whe the r a Mo nte Ca rlo a na lysis o f the unc e rta intie s in the Dutc h NI R wo uld re sult in diffe re nt le ve ls o f unc e rta intie s c o mpa re d to tho se pro vide d b y the T ie r 1 a na lysis. Asse ss whic h pa ra me te rs c o ntrib ute the mo st to the to ta l unc e rta inty in the e missio ns, in o rde r to ide ntify a re a s o f hig h prio rity fo r the furthe r impro ve me nt o f the o ve ra ll a c c ura c y o f the inve nto ry. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
METHOD METHOD Ana lysis pe rfo rme d fo r the K yo to b a se ye a r (1990/ 1995) a nd fo r 2004 Ba sic da ta fo r the c a lc ula tio ns o b ta ine d fro m NL NI R Sa me le ve l o f a g g re g a tio n c ho se n a s in NL T ie r 1 a na lysis Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
For base case For base case All kno wn no n-Ga ussia n distrib utio n we re ta ke n into a c c o unt No rma l distrib utio n a ssume d whe re sta nda rd de via tio n e q ua l o r b e lo w 30% L o g no rma l whe re sta nda rd de via tio n > 30% I n so me c a se s, no rma l distrib utio ns ha ve b e e n trunc a te d (0,+inf) Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
So ftwa re pa c ka g e use d: @ Risk PDF s fo r e missio n fa c to rs a nd a c tivity da ta we re b a se d o n unc e rta inty ra ng e s use d in T I E R 1 a nd e xpe rt judg me nt fro m MNP. All kno wn c o rre la tio ns we re ta ke n into a c c o unt Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
CO RREL AT IO NS CO RREL AT IO NS 100% F OR ACT I VI T Y DAT A: F OR T HE SAME YE AR AND DI F F E RE NT E MI SSI ON F ACT ORS SAME E MI SSI ON F ACT OR DI F F E RE NT SE CT ORS AND/ OR DI F F E RE NT YE ARS Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
PARTIAL CORRELATIONS F OR E MI SSI ON F ACT ORS F ROM SAME ARS : CAT E GORY AMONG YE Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
PARTIAL CORRELATIONS F o r e missio n fa c to rs fro m sa me c a te g o rie s a mo ng ye a rs F o r so me a c tivity da ta a c ro ss se c to rs (e .g ., g a s c o nsumptio n in c he mic a l industry in c a te g o ry 1A a nd c he mic a l fe e dsto c k in c a te g o ry 2) Ac tivity da ta a mo ng ye a rs c o nside re d inde pe nde nt (CORR=0), E xc e ptio n: E missio ns fro m L a ndfill wa ste Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Following the IPCC Tier 2 method, uncertainties in the trend emissions were calculated in absolute and in relative terms. A pedigree assessment was carried out for the most sensitive emissions factors and activity data to systematically assess strengths and weakness in the knowledge base (part of the NUSAP system). Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Pe dig re e ma trix Source: Risbey et al., 2001 Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Re sults Re sults Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
T ota l G HG e missions in the Ne the rla nds T ota l G HG e missions in the Ne the rla nds Without L UCF Without L UCF 2004 1990 1990 2004 X <=210429.5 X <=226654.06 X <=205692.83 X <=227374.2 2.5% 97.5% 2.5% 97.5% 1.2 9 Mean = 217211.1 Mean = 214434.4 8 1.0 7 Values in 10^ -4 Values in 10^ -5 0.8 6 5 0.6 4 3 0.4 2 0.2 1 0 0.0 190 218 245 273 300 200 220 240 260 280 Values in Thousands Values in Thousands Monte Carlo analysis - : Tier 1: 1990: 213 Tg CO 2eq 1990: 214 Tg CO 2eq 2004: 217 Tg CO 2eq 2004: 217 Tg CO 2eq Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation std: 4.5% (6%) std: 5.3 % (1990); 3.9% (2004) http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Trend in Total GHG emissions Trend in Total GHG emissions Without LUCF X <=11529.15 X <=-7650.37 97.5% 2.5% 9 8 Mean = 2776.677 7 Values in 10^ -5 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Values in Thousands Monte Carlo analysis: Tier 1: Relative change: 1.3% Relative change: 1.6% Copernicus Institute std: 4.5% std: 3.3% Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Total CO 2 emissions Total CO 2 emissions Without LUCF Without LUCF 2004 2004 1990 1990 X <=182112.19 X <=161351.22 X <=156659.83 X <=176954.98 97.5% 97.5% 2.5% 3.5 2.5% 3.5 Mean = 158974.5 Mean = 179516 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 Values in 10^ -4 Values in 10^ -4 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 154 158 162 166 172 176 179 183 186 Values in Thousands Values in Thousands Tier 1: Year Minimum Maximum Mean Monte Carlo analysis Mode Std Deviation Variance Skewness Kurtosis 1990 154120.8 164436.3 158974.5 158297.1 1199.3 1438225.0 0.043 2.986 2004 173637.8 185306.1 179516.0 177994.8 1318.0 1737040.0 0.034 3.011 1990: 159 Tg CO 2eq 1990: 159 Tg CO 2eq 2004: 179 Tg CO 2eq 2004: 180 Tg CO 2eq Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation std: 2.5% (5%) std: 1.5 % (1990 & 2004) http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Trend in Total CO 2 emissions Trend in Total CO 2 emissions Without LUCF Without LUCF X < = 17501.92 X < =23579.72 2.5% 97.5% 3.0 M ean = 20541.49 2.5 Values in 10^ -4 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 12 16 20 24 28 V alues in T housands Tier 1: Monte Carlo analysis: Relative change: 9.6% Relative change: 9.6% std: 2.1% std: 1.6% Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Total CH 4 emissions Total CH 4 emissions 2004 1990 1990 2004 X <=15068.76 X <=20236.8 X <=30988.2 X <=21042.94 2.5% 97.5% 3.5 97.5% 2.5% 2.0 Mean = 25463.84 Mean = 17444.48 1.8 3.0 1.6 2.5 1.4 Values in 10^ -4 Values in 10^ -4 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 15 21 28 34 40 12 18 24 30 Values in Thousands Values in Thousands Monte Carlo analysis - : Tier 1: Year M inimum M aximum M ean M ode Std Deviation Variance Skewness Kurtosis 1990 16889.97 38036.09 25463.84 25716.46 2381.692 5672456 0.4433465 3.979612 1990: 25.4 Tg CO 2eq 1990: 25.5 Tg CO 2eq 2004 12807.72 29766.56 17444.48 17203.42 1315.159 1729642 0.3799421 3.685013 2004: 17.5 Tg CO 2eq 2004: 17.4 Tg CO 2eq Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation std: 18% (25%) std: 18.7 % (1990); 15.1% (2004) http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
Trend in Total CH 4 emissions Trend in Total CH 4 emissions X <=-13540.66 X <=-3370.86 2.5% Mean = -8019.355 97.5% 1.8 1.6 1.4 Values in 10^ -4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Values in Thousands Tier 1: Monte Carlo analysis Relative change: -3.7% Relative change: -3.7% Copernicus Institute std: 1.4% Sustainable Development and Innovation std: 2.2% http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/publicaties2006/E2006-58.pdf
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