MODELS INS MODELS INSTR TRUMENT UMENTAL AL IN IN CO COAST - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MODELS INS MODELS INSTR TRUMENT UMENTAL AL IN IN CO COAST ASTAL L AL LOUIS OUISIAN IANA A PLANNING E PLANNING EFFOR FFORTS TS Integrated Compartment Model & Basin-wide Delft Eric D. White, PE Research Engineer October 2, 2017

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MODELS INS MODELS INSTR TRUMENT UMENTAL AL IN IN CO COAST ASTAL L AL LOUIS OUISIAN IANA A PLANNING E PLANNING EFFOR FFORTS TS

Eric D. White, PE Research Engineer October 2, 2017

Integrated Compartment Model & Basin-wide Delft

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HIST HISTORIC ORIC WETLAND WETLAND LOSS IN OSS IN CO COAST ASTAL AL LOUISIAN OUISIANA

Couvillion et al. (2017). USGS. Land area change in coastal Louisiana (1932 to 2016). https://doi.org/10.3133/sim3381

Estimated land loss from 1932 – 2016: ~ 4833 km2 (1866 mi2) Equivalent to 25% of 1932 wetland area

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2017 2017 CO COAST ASTAL AL MAS MASTE TER R PLAN PLAN

coastal.la.gov/our-plan/coastal-master-plan/

M A S T E R P L A N M O D E L I N G T E A M

Modeling Staff

+Brady Couvillion (USGS) +Zhifei Dong (CB&I) +Scott Duke-Sylvester (ULL) +Jenneke Visser (ULL) +Alex McCorquodale (UNO) +Eric White (WI)

Ann Hijuelos (WI) Yushi Wang (WI) Joao Pereira (WI) Alaina Grace (WI) Scott Hemmerling (WI) Leland Moss (WI) Stokka Brown (M&N) Jonathan Wang (M&N) Kevin Hannigan (M&N) Mallory Rodrigue (CHF) Jenni Schindler (CHF) Robert Romaire (LSU)

CPRA Lead

Mandy Green Angelina Freeman David Lindquist

PM-TAC Team

Courtney Harris (VIMS) John Callaway (USFCA) Mike Waldon Scott Hagen (LSU) Wim Kimmerer (SFSU)

Water Institute Lead Denise Reed

+Ehab Meselhe

Vadim Alymov (CECI)

Michael Poff (CECI) Craig Conzelmann (USGS) Hardin Waddle (USGS) Kevin Suir (USGS)

+ David Johnson (RAND)

Kenneth Kuhn (RAND)

+ Jordan Fischbach (RAND)

Gordon Thomson (CB&I) Hugh Roberts (Arcadis) Zach Cobell (Arcadis) John Atkinson (Arcadis) Haihong Zhao (Arcadis) Kim de Mutsert (GMU) Kristy Lewis (GMU)

+primary model code developer of Master Plan model subroutines

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2017 2017 CO COAST ASTAL AL MAS MASTE TER R PLAN PLAN

INTEGRATE LEGACY MODELS IMPROVE PHYSICAL PROCESSES MODEL VALIDATION & CALIBRATION MODEL FUTURE SCENARIOS

M O D E L I M P R O V E M E N T P L A N

coastal.la.gov/our-plan/coastal-master-plan/

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ICM: INTEGRA ICM: INTEGRATED TED COMP COMPAR ARTMENT TMENT MODEL MODEL

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ICM: ICM: MODEL MODEL INTEGRA INTEGRATION TION

ICM ADCIRC + SWAN CLARA

2x 2x 2 0 1 2 M A S T E R P L A N L A N D S C A P E M O D E L S 2 0 1 7 M A S T E R P L A N L A N D S C A P E M O D E L 2 0 1 2 & 2 0 1 7 R I S K A S S E S S M E N T

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ICM: ICM: BARR ARRIER IER ISLAND ISLAND PR PROCES OCESSES SES

 Island elevation change  Breaching  Overwash / cross shore profile change  Longshore transport  Wave transformation  Storm effects (SBEACH)  Back-barrier marsh, dune and swale vegetation

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ICM: ICM: ESTU ESTUAR ARY Y & OPEN & OPEN WA WATER TER PR PROCES OCESSES SES

 Hydrodynamics  Water quality  Sedimentation  Bed resuspension  Sediment distribution

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ICM: ICM: WETL WETLAND AND PR PROCES OCESSES SES & & VEGE VEGETATION TION

 Wetland elevation change  Wetland area change  Marsh collapse  Marsh edge erosion  Storm effects  Coastal vegetation

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ICM: ICM: COMP COMPAR ARTMENT TMENT CONC CONCEPTU EPTUALIZA ALIZATIO TION N & SP & SPATIAL TIAL RES RESOL OLUTIO UTION

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ICM: ICM: ECOS ECOSYSTEM STEM OUT OUTCOMES COMES & & DEC DECISION ISION METRICS METRICS

EwE: Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace food web model HSIs: Habitat Suitability Indices

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PR PROJECTED OJECTED FUTURE FUTURE CONDITION CONDITIONS

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BASIN ASIN-WIDE DELF WIDE DELFT3D T3D MODELING MODELING

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PR PROJECT OJECT TEAM TEAM

The Water Institute of the Gulf

Natural Systems Modeling and Monitoring

– Model setup, calibration, validation and production runs

Physical Processes and Sediment Systems

– Data collection for model calibration and validation – QA/QC model output

Coastal Ecology

– Data collection for model calibration and validation – QA/QC model output

People, Resources & Technology

– Calculation and preparation of land change maps

Collaborators

University of Louisiana-Lafayette

– Development and integration of vegetation model

Louisiana State University

– Geotechnical data collection and laboratory analysis

Deltares

– Support of model setup, calibration and validation activities

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PR PROPOSED OPOSED SEDIMEN SEDIMENT T DIVERSI DIVERSIONS ONS

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PR PROJECT OJECT GO GOAL AL

Produce a calibrated and validated model capable of simulating:

– Land change processes that occur during the creation of a new delta and wetland areas – Nutrient effects to the wetland vegetation, soil, and the phytoplankton of Breton Sound and Barataria Basin

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BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D MODEL MODEL FRA FRAMEW MEWORK ORK

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VEGE VEGETATIO TION N DYN YNAMICS: AMICS: OR ORGANIC GANIC MA MATTER TTER ACCUMUL CCUMULATION TION

Total Biomass

Spartina patens

Aboveground Belowground Biomass Allocation POM in water column POM in soil Mortality (VEGMOD) (LaVegMod.RootShoot) (VEGMOD)

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BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D MODEL MODEL DOMAIN DOMAIN

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SUPP SUPPLEME LEMENT T EXISTING EXISTING DATA A WITH WITH TAR ARGETE GETED D COL COLLEC LECTION TION

Model Setup

– Update bathymetry to build grids – Utilize locally observed values within model (e.g., soil properties, water quality, meteorology, ocean forcing, etc.)

Calibration and Validation

– Key parameters to tune model performance

Improved Understanding of

Processes

– Compare model outputs to observed basin behavior, ensuring dynamics are captured by the model design

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RIVER RIVER HYDR HYDROD ODYN YNAMICS: AMICS: CAL CALIBRA IBRATION TION & & VALID ALIDATION TION

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BASIN ASIN HYDR HYDROD ODYN YNAMICS: AMICS: CAL CALIBRA IBRATION TION & & VALID ALIDATION TION

Water Level Salinity

CRMS0225

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NUTRIENT NUTRIENT DYN YNAMICS: AMICS: CAL CALIBRA IBRATION TION & & VALID ALIDATION TION

Chl-a

Nitrate Total Suspended Sediment Chlorophyll a

Grand Isle

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VEGE VEGETATIO TION N DYN YNAMICS: AMICS: CAL CALIBRA IBRATION TION & & VALID ALIDATION TION

Vegetation Biomass

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BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D : : YEA YEAR R 50 50 ( (20 2070 70) ) SAL SALINITY INITY

No Diversions Active Mid Diversions Active

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BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D : : YEA YEAR R 50 50 ( (20 2070 70) ) WA WATER TER QU QUALITY ALITY

Mid Diversions Active Mid Diversions Active

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BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D : : 50 50-YEA YEAR R FUT FUTURE URE WITH WITH NO NO PR PROJE OJECT CT

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BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D : : 50 50-YEA YEAR R FUT FUTURE URE WITH WITH ALL ALL DIVERS DIVERSIONS IONS

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THANK YOU

301 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 2000 BATON ROUGE, LA 70825 (225) 448-2813 WWW.THEWATERINSTITUTE.ORG Eric D. White, PE Research Engineer ewhite@thewaterinstitute.org