MODELS INS MODELS INSTR TRUMENT UMENTAL AL IN IN CO COAST - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MODELS INS MODELS INSTR TRUMENT UMENTAL AL IN IN CO COAST ASTAL L AL LOUIS OUISIAN IANA A PLANNING E PLANNING EFFOR FFORTS TS Integrated Compartment Model & Basin-wide Delft Eric D. White, PE Research Engineer October 2, 2017

HIST HISTORIC ORIC WETLAND WETLAND LOSS IN OSS IN CO COAST ASTAL AL LOUISIAN OUISIANA Estimated land loss from 1932 – 2016: ~ 4833 km 2 (1866 mi 2 ) Equivalent to 25% of 1932 wetland area Couvillion et al. (2017). USGS. Land area change in coastal Louisiana (1932 to 2016). https://doi.org/10.3133/sim3381

2017 2017 CO COAST ASTAL AL MAS MASTE TER R PLAN PLAN M A S T E R P L A N M O D E L I N G T E A M Modeling Staff CPRA Lead + Brady Couvillion (USGS) Mandy Green Vadim Alymov (CECI) Angelina Freeman + Zhifei Dong (CB&I) Michael Poff (CECI) David Lindquist + Scott Duke-Sylvester (ULL) Craig Conzelmann (USGS) + Jenneke Visser (ULL) Hardin Waddle (USGS) PM-TAC Team + Alex McCorquodale (UNO) Kevin Suir (USGS) Courtney Harris (VIMS) + Eric White (WI) + David Johnson (RAND) John Callaway (USFCA) Ann Hijuelos (WI) Mike Waldon Kenneth Kuhn (RAND) Yushi Wang (WI) Scott Hagen (LSU) + Jordan Fischbach (RAND) Joao Pereira (WI) Wim Kimmerer (SFSU) Alaina Grace (WI) Gordon Thomson (CB&I) Scott Hemmerling (WI) Hugh Roberts (Arcadis) Water Institute Lead Leland Moss (WI) Zach Cobell (Arcadis) Denise Reed Stokka Brown (M&N) John Atkinson (Arcadis) + Ehab Meselhe Jonathan Wang (M&N) Haihong Zhao (Arcadis) Kevin Hannigan (M&N) Kim de Mutsert (GMU) Mallory Rodrigue (CHF) Kristy Lewis (GMU) Jenni Schindler (CHF) Robert Romaire (LSU) coastal.la.gov/our-plan/coastal-master-plan/ + primary model code developer of Master Plan model subroutines

2017 2017 CO COAST ASTAL AL MAS MASTE TER R PLAN PLAN M O D E L I M P R O V E M E N T P L A N IMPROVE MODEL INTEGRATE MODEL PHYSICAL VALIDATION & LEGACY FUTURE PROCESSES CALIBRATION SCENARIOS MODELS coastal.la.gov/our-plan/coastal-master-plan/

ICM: INTEGRA ICM: INTEGRATED TED COMP COMPAR ARTMENT TMENT MODEL MODEL

ICM: ICM: MODEL MODEL INTEGRA INTEGRATION TION 2 0 1 2 M A S T E R P L A N L A N D S C A P E M O D E L S 2x 2x 2 0 1 2 & 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 7 M A S T E R P L A N L A N D S C A P E M O D E L R I S K A S S E S S M E N T ICM ADCIRC + SWAN CLARA

ICM: ICM: BARR ARRIER IER ISLAND ISLAND PR PROCES OCESSES SES  Island elevation change  Breaching  Overwash / cross shore profile change  Longshore transport  Wave transformation  Storm effects (SBEACH)  Back-barrier marsh, dune and swale vegetation

ICM: ICM: ESTU ESTUAR ARY Y & OPEN & OPEN WA WATER TER PR PROCES OCESSES SES  Hydrodynamics Water quality  Sedimentation   Bed resuspension  Sediment distribution

ICM: ICM: WETL WETLAND AND PR PROCES OCESSES SES & & VEGE VEGETATION TION  Wetland elevation change  Wetland area change  Marsh collapse  Marsh edge erosion  Storm effects  Coastal vegetation

ICM: ICM: COMP COMPAR ARTMENT TMENT CONC CONCEPTU EPTUALIZA ALIZATIO TION N & SP & SPATIAL TIAL RES RESOL OLUTIO UTION

ICM: ICM: ECOS ECOSYSTEM STEM OUT OUTCOMES COMES & & DEC DECISION ISION METRICS METRICS EwE: Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace HSIs: Habitat Suitability Indices food web model

PR PROJECTED OJECTED FUTURE FUTURE CONDITION CONDITIONS

BASIN ASIN-WIDE DELF WIDE DELFT3D T3D MODELING MODELING

PR PROJECT OJECT TEAM TEAM The Water Institute of the Gulf Collaborators Natural Systems Modeling and Monitoring University of Louisiana-Lafayette – Model setup, calibration, validation and – Development and integration of vegetation production runs model Louisiana State University Physical Processes and Sediment Systems Geotechnical data collection and laboratory – analysis – Data collection for model calibration and validation Deltares QA/QC model output – – Support of model setup, calibration and validation activities Coastal Ecology – Data collection for model calibration and validation QA/QC model output – People, Resources & Technology – Calculation and preparation of land change maps

PR PROPOSED OPOSED SEDIMEN SEDIMENT T DIVERSI DIVERSIONS ONS

PR PROJECT OJECT GO GOAL AL Produce a calibrated and validated model capable of simulating: – Land change processes that occur during the creation of a new delta and wetland areas – Nutrient effects to the wetland vegetation, soil, and the phytoplankton of Breton Sound and Barataria Basin

BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D MODEL MODEL FRA FRAMEW MEWORK ORK

VEGE VEGETATIO TION N DYN YNAMICS: AMICS: OR ORGANIC GANIC MA MATTER TTER ACCUMUL CCUMULATION TION Spartina patens Biomass Mortality POM in Total Aboveground Allocation water Biomass column POM in soil Belowground (VEGMOD) (VEGMOD) (LaVegMod.RootShoot)

BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D MODEL MODEL DOMAIN DOMAIN

SUPP SUPPLEME LEMENT T EXISTING EXISTING DATA A WITH WITH TAR ARGETE GETED D COL COLLEC LECTION TION Model Setup • – Update bathymetry to build grids – Utilize locally observed values within model (e.g., soil properties, water quality, meteorology, ocean forcing, etc.) • Calibration and Validation – Key parameters to tune model performance • Improved Understanding of Processes – Compare model outputs to observed basin behavior, ensuring dynamics are captured by the model design

RIVER RIVER HYDR HYDROD ODYN YNAMICS: AMICS: CAL CALIBRA IBRATION TION & & VALID ALIDATION TION

BASIN ASIN HYDR HYDROD ODYN YNAMICS: AMICS: CAL CALIBRA IBRATION TION & & VALID ALIDATION TION Water Level Salinity CRMS0225

NUTRIENT NUTRIENT DYN YNAMICS: AMICS: CAL CALIBRA IBRATION TION & & VALID ALIDATION TION Nitrate Chlorophyll a Chl-a Total Suspended Sediment Grand Isle

VEGE VEGETATIO TION N DYN YNAMICS: AMICS: CAL CALIBRA IBRATION TION & & VALID ALIDATION TION Vegetation Biomass

BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D : : YEA YEAR R 50 50 ( (20 2070 70) ) SAL SALINITY INITY No Diversions Active Mid Diversions Active

BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D : : YEA YEAR R 50 50 ( (20 2070 70) ) WA WATER TER QU QUALITY ALITY Mid Diversions Active Mid Diversions Active

BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D : : 50 50-YEA YEAR R FUT FUTURE URE WITH WITH NO NO PR PROJE OJECT CT

BASIN ASIN-WIDE WIDE DEL DELFT3 FT3D D : : 50-YEA 50 YEAR R FUT FUTURE URE WITH WITH ALL ALL DIVERS DIVERSIONS IONS

THANK YOU Eric D. White, PE Research Engineer ewhite@thewaterinstitute.org 301 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 2000 BATON ROUGE, LA 70825 (225) 448-2813 WWW.THEWATERINSTITUTE.ORG