[PPT] - Planning for the Future: 2015-16 Enrollment Report & BOE PowerPoint Presentation

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Planning for the Future:

2015-16 Enrollment Report & BOE Approved Attendance Areas for 2016-17

December 2015

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Founded in 2003
Professional educational planning firm
Expertise in multiple disciplines
Over 20 years of planning experience
Over 80 years of education experience
Over 20 years of GIS experience
Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois,

Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and North Dakota

Projection accuracy of 97% or greater

Robert Schwarz CEO, AICP, REFP, CEFP

Planning GIS Analyst Educators

Clay Guthmiller Education Planner Ryan McKay Senior Planner, AICP Jay Harris Education Planner David Stoakes Education Planner, Ed.D. Brandon Sylvester GIS Analyst Tyler Link GIS Analyst Susan Swift Education Planner, Ph.D. Diane DeBacker, Ed.D. Education Planner

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3 Key Items About the District

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Enrollment is projected to increase over the next five years by nearly 560

students (Pre-K Included) (80 to 135 student increase annually)

Capacity Concerns: Current concerns at nearly every facility. However, as

the facility master plan improvements are realized and as the Committee progresses through the scenario development, the capacity challenges will be lessened

There is considerable opportunity for future growth in the District area.

The development of this vacant land will have a significant effect on future enrollment

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District Map

District boundary is a purple line
Solid colors represent city jurisdictions:
Platte City (green)
Kansas City (blue)
Parkville (light green)
Major Streets
Major water features

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2015/16 Attendance Areas

District Boundary (purple line)
Attendance Areas
North Feeder (tan)
South Feeder (green)
Major Streets
Major water features

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Planning Areas

Planning Area (green lines)
Created by:
Existing Attendance Areas
Natural Features
Manmade Features
Type of Development

(SF, MF, Dup)

Nearly 350 planning areas

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Planning Areas (Detailed)

Zoomed into Rising Star Elementary
Show the power of GIS information
See where students are located in

relation to streets, subdivisions, parcels

Illustrates how the planning areas

are tied to the parcel

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Sophisticated Forecast Model

This is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an accurate enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s reports and maps to better understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects. Built-Out Developing

Where:

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Model Components

County City Attendance Areas Streets Development Students & People

Cohort Growth
External Growth
Kindergarten Change
Economic Scenarios

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Past School Enrollment

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Pig in the Snake Effect

Largest class in 2015/16 – 5th (343)
Smallest class in 2015/16 – 12th grade (259)
Graduating senior class will likely be smaller than

the next year incoming Kindergarten class

The above enrollment totals are Kindergarten to 12th grade The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

Oink?

Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2003/04 208 194 188 174 197 199 186 198 191 185 163 145 167 2,395 2004/05 229 207 211 200 191 207 202 199 214 200 186 169 148 2,563 2005/06 224 231 204 223 204 188 215 208 217 222 204 189 171 2,700 2006/07 223 227 234 222 218 223 197 216 212 219 216 209 172 2,788 2007/08 241 236 231 241 229 223 237 203 226 222 229 214 197 2,929 2008/09 283 258 262 238 253 246 244 241 226 238 234 236 214 3,173 2009/10 294 292 255 262 252 262 262 247 254 235 246 247 222 3,330 2010/11 314 294 309 267 283 263 286 267 265 260 244 256 248 3,556 2011/12 306 309 306 313 267 293 279 283 276 280 252 247 252 3,663 2012/13 302 301 312 310 312 292 295 278 292 267 283 239 240 3,723 2013/14 311 310 299 315 314 319 297 293 282 298 263 263 236 3,800 2014/15 292 319 310 307 325 315 320 303 299 292 286 255 270 3,893 2015/16 339 291 328 312 314 343 317 306 305 292 294 265 259 3,965

Source: Platte County School District

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Past School Enrollment Change

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Examining the Trends

Largest average class cohort increase – Kindergarten (12 students)
Largest average class cohort decrease – 10th to 11th grade (16 students)
Propensity to have each cohort increase students from year to year in most grades

The above enrollment totals are Kindergarten to 12th grade The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

From To K K 1st 1st 2nd 2nd 3rd 3rd 4th 4th 5th 5th 6th 6th 7th 7th 8th 8th 9th 9th 10th 10th 11th 11th 12th 2003/04 2004/05 21

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17 12 17 10 3 13 16 9 1 6 3 2004/05 2005/06

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12 4

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8 6 18 8 4 3 2 2005/06 2006/07

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3 3 18

5

19 9 1 4 2

6

5

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2006/07 2007/08 18 13 4 7 7 5 14 6 10 10 10

2
12

2007/08 2008/09 42 17 26 7 12 17 21 4 23 12 12 7 2008/09 2009/10 11 9

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14 9 16 3 13 9 8 13

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2009/10 2010/11 20 17 12 21 11 24 5 18 6 9 10 1 2010/11 2011/12

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5

12 4 10 16

3

9 15

8

3

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2011/12 2012/13

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5

3 4

1

25 2

1

9

9

3

13
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2012/13 2013/14 9 8

2

3 4 7 5

2

4 6

4
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2013/14 2014/15

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8 8 10 1 1 6 6 10

12
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7 2014/15 2015/16 47

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9 2 7 18 2

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4 3 - Yr Avg 12.3 5.0 2.3 4.3 7.0 8.7 2.7

3.3

4.0 3.0

4.7
16.3

2.7 3 - Yr Wavg 18.7 3.5 4.2 4.2 7.5 10.5 2.2

5.3

3.7 0.8

3.7
16.5

3.8

Source: Platte County School District

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Student In-Migration

2015/16 students who are in 1st

through 12th grade that were not attending the District in 2014/15 as Kindergarten through 11th grade

Who is new to the District that

was not attending in previous years?

Is it related to changes in the

community?

New Students in 2015/16
ES : +276
MS : +99
HS : +102
District : +477

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Student Out-Migration

Students attending the District in

2014/15 who were in Kindergarten through 11th grade that did not attend in 2015/16 as 1st through 12th graders

Who was in the District that is not

attending now?

Is it related to perceptions of a

school building?

Is it related to changes in the

community?

No Longer Students in 2015/16
ES : -272
MS : -115
HS : -92
District : -479
Net Migration : -2

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Student Heat Map

Red areas depict highest, gray as

lowest student density

Overlapping points (2 or more

students) are handled using a weighting of coincident points

Illustrates by student address

where there is the greatest clustering of students

This type of analysis can help with

understanding student population and geographic proximity to schools

The greatest density with point

data tends to be in higher density developments and mobile home parks

This map is the start to

understanding future facility locations

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Development Trends

The above numbers reflect census population change, District enrollment change, and Certificate of Occupancies issued each year.

Source: Platte County, Platte County R-3 School District, and RSP

2006 to 2007 2007 to 2008 2008 to 2009 2009 to 2010 2010 to 2011 2011 to 2012 2012 to 2013 2013 to 2014 Population Change 1,035 1,094 1,157 1,217 336 426 366 372 Enrollment Change 141 244 157 226 107 60 77 93 Certificate Occupancy 400 217 142 104 78 138 182 109

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Change From Previous Year

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Student Density Change (11/12 – 15/16)

Depicts number of students per

square mile within a planning area from 2011/12 to 2015/16

Orange areas experienced an

increase since 2015/16; green areas a decrease

White areas had no net change of

students 2015/16

Several older areas of the

community are experiencing a “regreening” effect

As new developments come online,

there will be even greater changes in those type of development.

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Residential Year Built

Is development changing – will it

impact enrollment and use of facilities?

Will households be able to afford the

types of housing stock being built?

What housing products will be built (SF,

MF, smaller or larger)?

Will the development continue as

initially planned?

Colors of dots represent specific years

according to Platte County, Clay County and City of Kansas City.

Map represents conditions as of early

2015 (not all the data was available for 2015)

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Median Home Value

Based on Census & ESRI data

estimates by RSP Planning Area. Some areas not as up to date as

thers
Home values likely correlated to

socio-economic status

Areas shaded in orange and red

have the greatest Median Home Value

Areas shaded in gray/light purple

have the least Median Home Value

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Yield Rates

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The Data has Mixed Meanings:

Elementary, Middle, and High School yield rates have increased since 2003/04, but more so at the elementary level
Overall the district yield rate is higher than it was in 2003/04, this is the influence of more complete unit data from the county as

well as additional development attracting young families with school aged children

Adding more newer housing inventory typically increases the yield rate – type of housing must be monitored

The above enrollment totals are Kdg to 12th grade The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

School Total Year K-5 6-8 9-12 District Units K-5 6-8 9-12 District 2003/04 1,160 575 660 2,395 4,344 0.267 0.132 0.152 0.551 2004/05 1,245 615 703 2,563 4,659 0.267 0.132 0.151 0.550 2005/06 1,274 640 786 2,700 4,991 0.255 0.128 0.157 0.541 2006/07 1,347 625 816 2,788 5,503 0.245 0.114 0.148 0.507 2007/08 1,401 666 862 2,929 5,903 0.237 0.113 0.146 0.496 2008/09 1,540 711 922 3,173 6,120 0.252 0.116 0.151 0.518 2009/10 1,617 763 950 3,330 6,262 0.258 0.122 0.152 0.532 2010/11 1,730 818 1,008 3,556 6,366 0.272 0.128 0.158 0.559 2011/12 1,794 838 1,031 3,663 6,444 0.278 0.130 0.160 0.568 2012/13 1,829 865 1,029 3,723 6,582 0.278 0.131 0.156 0.566 2013/14 1,868 872 1,060 3,800 6,764 0.276 0.129 0.157 0.562 2014/15 1,868 922 1,103 3,893 6,873 0.272 0.134 0.160 0.566 2015/16 1,927 928 1,110 3,965 6,897 0.279 0.135 0.161 0.575 0.276 0.133 0.159 0.568 0.276 0.133 0.160 0.570

Source: Platte County R-3 School District, Clay County, Platte County, RSP & Associates

Grade Configuration Yield Rate Three Year Average Three Year Weighted Average

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Where Will the Growth Be?

Where will the growth be?

Identifies where development activity is currently happening (dark green)

Identifies possible areas that are

likely to develop (light green & yellow)

The market and property owner’s

desire to build guides the timing of development

Other properties not shown might

develop while some shown might not develop

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Projection Accuracy

High School

Projected 1,139
Actual 1,110
97.4% Accuracy

District

Projected 4,060
Actual 4,032
99.3% Accuracy

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Elementary

Projected 1,971
Actual 1,994
98.8% Accuracy

Middle School

Projected 950
Actual 928
97.6% Accuracy

High School

Projected 1,104
Actual 1,103
99.9% Accuracy

District

Projected 3,959
Actual 3,963
99.9% Accuracy

Elementary

Projected 1,936
Actual 1,938
99.9% Accuracy

Middle School

Projected 919
Actual 922
99.7% Accuracy

2014/15 Projections from 2012/13 (2 Year) 2015/16 Projections from 2012/13 (3 Year)

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Past, Current & Future Enrollment

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The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count
Above numbers include Pre-K
Future enrollment are midpoint projections
Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

Source: Platte County R-3 School District, and RSP

1,376 1,437 1,612 1,683 1,805 1,858 1,897 1,920 1,938 1,994 1,974 2,017 2,063 2,114 2,219 625 666 711 763 818 838 865 872 922 928 980 1,006 1,023 1,024 1,018 816 862 911 928 954 971 974 1,060 1,103 1,110 1,159 1,212 1,247 1,321 1,355 2,817 2,965 3,234 3,374 3,577 3,667 3,736 3,852 3,963 4,032 4,113 4,235 4,333 4,459 4,592 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 ES MS HS Mid Proj. ES Mid Proj. MS Mid Proj. HS District

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Elementary Enrollment Projections (2015/16 Boundaries)

School Student Location 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Rising Star Elementary Res/Att 166 171 160 155 195

Capacity 184

Reside 167 171 163 158 201 177 186 187 195 198

Grades K (North)

Attend 174 171 164 157 201 Siegrist Elementary Res/Att 590 576 552 530 513

Capacity 596

Reside 592 577 566 546 523 540 547 571 559 578

Grades 1-3 (North)

Attend 656 588 573 549 530 Paxton Elementary Res/Att 358 394 409 412 421

Capacity 390

Reside 360 395 413 420 429 389 369 348 379 396

Grades 4-5 (North)

Attend 364 396 412 422 437 Pathfinder Elementary Res/Att 352 358 378 385 398

Capacity 334

Reside 383 379 414 420 440 413 438 458 488 519

Grades PreK-2 (South)

Attend 355 359 394 406 417 Barry Elementary Res/Att 307 318 311 324 331

Capacity 261

Reside 314 322 325 340 354 406 427 447 441 470

Grades 3-5 (South)

Attend 309 319 326 337 344 Great Beginnings Preschool Res/Att 53 39 54 47

Capacity 45

Reside 42 53 39 54 47 48 51 53 54 58

Grades PreK

Attend 64 51 67 65 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTAL

Capacity 1,810

Reside 1,858 1,897 1,920 1,938 1,994 1,974 2,017 2,063 2,114 2,219

Grades PreK-5

Attend 1,858 1,897 1,920 1,938 1,994

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - October 2015

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student Note 2: There are 2 mobiles at Barry and Platte High School Note 3: Capacity of each facility provided by the Platte County Schools Note 5: Attend is based on which facility the student attends (Same as Reside since only one facility for each grade level) Note 7: Grade configuration is PreK-5, 6-8, 9-12

MIDPOINT PROJECTION SHOWN IN TABLE

Note 6: Res/Att (Reside/Attend) is the student who resides in the attendance area that they attend

Exceed Building Capacity

Note 4: Reside is based on the student address

Future Enrollment By Student Residence Past School Enrollment

(Note: Includes Pre-K)

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Secondary Enrollment Projections 2015/16 Boundaries

School Student Location 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Platte City Middle School 570 596 575 615 603

Capacity 623

Reside 570 596 583 627 613 661 657 643 590 561

Grades 6-8 (North)

Attend 579 602 588 624 614 Barry Middle School Res/Att 259 263 276 285 305

Capacity 260

Reside 268 269 289 295 315 320 349 380 434 457

Grades 6-8 (South)

Attend 259 263 284 298 314 Platte County High School

Capacity 1,044

Reside 971 974 1,060 1,103 1,110 1,159 1,212 1,247 1,321 1,355

Grades 9-12

Attend 971 974 1,060 1,103 1,110 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTAL

Capacity 1,810

Reside 1,858 1,897 1,920 1,938 1,994 1,974 2,017 2,063 2,114 2,219

Grades PreK-5

Attend 1,858 1,897 1,920 1,938 1,994 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL

Capacity 883

Reside 838 865 872 922 928 980 1,006 1,023 1,024 1,018

Grades 6-8

Attend 838 865 872 922 928 HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL

Capacity 1,044

Reside 971 974 1,060 1,103 1,110 1,159 1,212 1,247 1,321 1,355

Grades 9-12

Attend 971 974 1,060 1,103 1,110 DISTRICT K -12 TOTALS

Capacity 3,737

Reside 3,667 3,736 3,852 3,963 4,032 4,113 4,235 4,333 4,459 4,592

Grades K-12

Attend 3,667 3,736 3,852 3,963 4,032

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - October 2015

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student Note 2: There are 2 mobiles at Barry and Platte High School Note 3: Capacity of each facility provided by the Platte County Schools Note 5: Attend is based on which facility the student attends (Same as Reside since only one facility for each grade level) Note 7: Grade configuration is PreK-5, 6-8, 9-12

MIDPOINT PROJECTION SHOWN IN TABLE

Note 6: Res/Att (Reside/Attend) is the student who resides in the attendance area that they attend

Exceed Building Capacity

Note 4: Reside is based on the student address

Future Enrollment By Student Residence Past School Enrollment

(Note: Includes Pre-K)

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20 2016 16/17 BOE APP

PPROVED ES

S ATTE

TENDANCE ARE REAS

PLA

LATTE COU OUNTY R-3 SCH CHOOL DISTRIC ICT: BOE

BOE APPROVE

VED ELE LEMENTARY ATTENDAN ANCE ARE REAS - PROJECT CTIO IONS

Capacities have been reassessed since the last enrollment analysis. The ranges above are based on preferred class sizes and maximum observed class sizes.

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20 2016 16/17 BOE APP

PPROVED ELE LEMENTARY ATTE TENDANCE ARE REAS

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20 2016 16/17 BOE APP

PPROVED MS

S ATTE

TENDANCE CE ARE REAS

PLA

LATTE COU OUNTY R-3 SCH CHOOL DISTRIC ICT: BOE

BOE APPROVE

VED MIDDLE SCH CHOOL ATTE TENDANCE ARE REAS AS -

PROJECT

CTIO IONS

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20 2016 16/17 BOE APP

PPROVED MID IDDLE SCHOOL ATTE TENDANCE ARE REAS

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NO NOTES TES

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