Modeling of Storm-Induced Hurricanes Inundation through a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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National Ocean Service Office of Coast Survey Coast Survey Development Laboratory Coastal & Marine Modeling Branch

Modeling of Storm-Induced Hurricanes Inundation through a Comprehensive Flexible Coupling Framework

Saeed Moghimi*,

• A. Van der Westhuysen*, A. Abdolali*, Z. Ma*, S. V. Vinogradov*, Y. Funakoshi*,
• E. Myers*, A. Chawla*, J. Meixner*, and A. Mehra*, F. Liu**, C. Massey***,
• N. Kurkowski*

* NOAA ** ESMF developer team *** US Army Eng. Research & Development Center Monday, 8 January 2018

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Content

• NEMS/NUOPC caps development
• NSEModel NEMS App (Name Storm Event Model)
• Executable
• Configuration
• NSEM results
• Ike, 2008
• Isabel, 2003
• Andrew, 1992
• Summary and outlook

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NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

ATM

atmosphere GSM (Global Spectral Model),

NMMB (Non-hydrostatic multiscale model on the B-grid)

OCN

• cean

MOM5 (Modular Ocean Model), HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model

WAV

wave

WWIII (WAVEWATCH III)

ICE

sea ice

CICE (Los Alamos Sea Ice Model) KISS (Keeping Ice's Simplicity)

HYD

hydrology

WRF-Hydro (Weather Research and Forecast Model Hydrology)

LND

land

LIS (Land Information System)

AER

aerosol or chemistry

GOCART (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport)

IPM

ionosphere plasmasphere IPE (Ionosphere-Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model)

CST

coast

ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation)

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NEMS (NUOPC/ESMF) Applications

Application ATM OCN WAV ICE HYD LND AER IPM CST CMAQ Air Quality NMMB PM2.5

COASTAL

WWIII

NWM

ADCIRC

HYCOM-GSM-CICE GSM HYCOM CICE Regional Hydro GSM MOM5 CICE WRF- Hydro LIS-Noah Regional Nest NMMB HYCOM UGCS-Seasonal GSM MOM5 CICE UGCS-Weather WAM-IPE GSM IPE Wave GSM WWIII

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Driver Connector Model

NUOPC components

NSEModel Application

Driver: Model: ADCIRC Model: WW3 Model: HWRF (data) Model: NWM

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Hurricane Ike (Aug. 28-Sep13, 2008)

Animations

On the wind wave modeling and validation see Ali’s talk, On Wednesday, 10 January 2018 from 11:30 AM - 11:45 AM

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HWRF forcing cases

• HWRF_GFS25d
• HWRF_GFS1d
• HWRF_GFS05d
• HWRF_GFS05d_OC
• HWRF_GFS05d_OC_DA

Observations

• High Water Marks
• CO-OPS tide stations

No bias correction

Ike forcing cases

Hurricane Surge On-Demand Forecast System (HSOFS) mesh coverage with more than 2.4 M nodes

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Ike validation: Total Water Level time series (TWL)

HWRF_GFS05d_OC captures the peaks better than the other forcing cases

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Ike validation: High Water Marks (HWM)

• HWRF_GFS05d_OC_DA_Wav is the
• verall choice
• Relative BIAS ~ 0.15 for ADCIRC-

WW3 coupled case

• Model results and observation

variability are comparable

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Surface waves effects

Good news and bad news: Wave set-up and atmospheric surge maximum regions are not necessarily at the same time and location

Surge (Total Water Level – Tide) Wave-setup

O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y Total surge Wave setup

Andrew

Andrew Isabel

Surface waves effects

Office of Coast Survey

• NSEModel NEMS application for coastal inundation studies using NUOPC/ESMF

infrastructure is developed.

• A set of generic coupling caps for ADCIRC, WaveWatch III and HWRF using

NUOPC/ESMF technology are implemented.

• The caps are capable of importing and exporting data fields based on the

available fields from the connected model components.

• The application is validated for hurricane Andrew,1992; hurricane Ike, 2008 and

hurricane Isabel, 2003 on the HSOFS triangular mesh.

• The model skills and its improvements due to wave effects on the final

inundation water level were examined and discussed using time series and high water marks observations.

FY18 plans:

• Validation of the fully coupled wave and surge model
• Implementation and validation of the National Water Model coupled to Coastal

Inundation model (ADCIRC+WaveWatchIII) via NEMS system

• Investigate some of the more recent storms (e.g. Hurricane Sandy, 2012)

Summary

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Thanks