Modeling of Storm-Induced Hurricanes Inundation through a - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

National Ocean Service Office of Coast Survey Coast Survey Development Laboratory Coastal & Marine Modeling Branch Modeling of Storm-Induced Hurricanes Inundation through a Comprehensive Flexible Coupling Framework Saeed Moghimi*, A. Van der Westhuysen*, A. Abdolali*, Z. Ma*, S. V. Vinogradov*, Y. Funakoshi*, E. Myers*, A. Chawla*, J. Meixner*, and A. Mehra*, F. Liu**, C. Massey***, N. Kurkowski* * NOAA ** ESMF developer team *** US Army Eng. Research & Development Center Monday, 8 January 2018 O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

Content  NEMS/NUOPC caps development  NSEModel NEMS App (Name Storm Event Model)  Executable  Configuration  NSEM results  Ike, 2008  Isabel, 2003  Andrew, 1992  Summary and outlook O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) atmosphere GSM (Global Spectral Model), ATM NMMB (Non-hydrostatic multiscale model on the B-grid) MOM5 (Modular Ocean Model), OCN ocean HYCOM ( Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model WWIII (WAVEWATCH III) WAV wave CICE (Los Alamos Sea Ice Model) ICE sea ice KISS (Keeping Ice's Simplicity) WRF-Hydro (Weather Research and Forecast Model Hydrology) HYD hydrology LIS (Land Information System) LND land aerosol or GOCART (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport) AER chemistry ionosphere plasmasphere IPE (Ionosphere-Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model) IPM ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) CST coast O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

NEMS (NUOPC/ESMF) Applications Application ATM OCN WAV ICE HYD LND AER IPM CST CMAQ Air Quality NMMB PM2.5 WWIII NWM ADCIRC COASTAL HYCOM-GSM-CICE GSM HYCOM CICE Regional Hydro GSM MOM5 CICE WRF- LIS-Noah Hydro Regional Nest NMMB HYCOM UGCS-Seasonal GSM MOM5 CICE UGCS-Weather WAM-IPE GSM IPE Wave GSM WWIII O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

NSEModel Application Driver: Model: Model: ADCIRC NWM Model: Model: HWRF (data) WW3 NUOPC components Driver Model Connector O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

Hurricane Ike (Aug. 28-Sep13, 2008) Animations On the wind wave modeling and validation see Ali’s talk, On Wednesday, 10 January 2018 from 11:30 AM - 11:45 AM O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

Ike forcing cases HWRF forcing cases  HWRF_GFS25d  HWRF_GFS1d  HWRF_GFS05d  HWRF_GFS05d_OC  HWRF_GFS05d_OC_DA No bias correction Observations  High Water Marks  CO-OPS tide stations Hurricane Surge On-Demand Forecast System (HSOFS) mesh coverage with more than 2.4 M nodes O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

Ike validation: Total Water Level time series (TWL) HWRF_GFS05d_OC captures the peaks better than the other forcing cases O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

Ike validation: High Water Marks (HWM)  HWRF_GFS05d_OC_DA_Wav is the overall choice  Relative BIAS ~ 0.15 for ADCIRC- WW3 coupled case  Model results and observation variability are comparable O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

Surface waves effects Surge (Total Water Level – Tide) Wave-setup Good news and bad news: Wave set-up and atmospheric surge maximum regions are not necessarily at the same time and location O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

Surface waves effects Andrew Isabel Total surge Wave setup Andrew O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y

Summary  NSEModel NEMS application for coastal inundation studies using NUOPC/ESMF infrastructure is developed.  A set of generic coupling caps for ADCIRC, WaveWatch III and HWRF using NUOPC/ESMF technology are implemented.  The caps are capable of importing and exporting data fields based on the available fields from the connected model components.  The application is validated for hurricane Andrew,1992; hurricane Ike, 2008 and hurricane Isabel, 2003 on the HSOFS triangular mesh.  The model skills and its improvements due to wave effects on the final inundation water level were examined and discussed using time series and high water marks observations. FY18 plans:  Validation of the fully coupled wave and surge model  Implementation and validation of the National Water Model coupled to Coastal Inundation model (ADCIRC+WaveWatchIII) via NEMS system  Investigate some of the more recent storms (e.g. Hurricane Sandy, 2012) Office of Coast Survey

Thanks O f f i c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y