Model Review May 11, 2016 1 Agenda Overview of model files - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Model Review May 11, 2016 1 Agenda Overview of model files - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Model Review May 11, 2016 1 Agenda Overview of model files provided for review Calibration Results Technical Team Review Process External Peer Review Process Next Steps Public Input 2 Overview of Model Files (Provided

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SLIDE 1

Model Review

May 11, 2016

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SLIDE 2

Agenda

 Overview of model files provided for review  Calibration Results  Technical Team Review Process  External Peer Review Process  Next Steps  Public Input

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Overview of Model Files

(Provided on 05/02/16)

 Groundwater Model

 Modflow Command line version  Groundwater Vistas version

 GIS Files

 Calibration geodatabase  Well package geodatabase

 Responses to Technical Team Comments (submitted

from October 2015 to January 2016)

 Calibration Maps, Tables and Graphs  HSPF Files (if external hard drive provided)

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Groundwater Model

 Modflow command line version  GVistas version

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GIS Files

 Calibration geodatabase  Well package geodatabase

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Calibration Results

 Entire Model Domain  North Florida Water Supply Planning Area  Keystone Heights

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Entire Model Domain

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SAS Water Levels

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SAS Water Level Residuals

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UFA Water Levels

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UFA Water Level Residuals

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LFA Water Levels

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LFA Water Level Residuals

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SAS/UFA Water Level Difference

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SAS/UFA Water Level Difference Residual

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UFA/LFA Water Level Difference

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UFA/LFA Water Level Difference Residual

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UFA Potentometric Map

2009 Average 2010 May/June

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Springs (Individual Vents)

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Springs (Large spring groups)

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Springs 2001

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Springs 2009

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(Target flow is in question)

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Baseflows

GAGE Baseflow2001 Baseflow2009 BF01 BF09

2176500

PART PART 34.82047 33.9238

2197500

Zero weight Zero weight 5100.717 5380.907

2197830

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 189.41 275.06

2198000

Zero weight Zero weight 261.5639 408.5153

2198100

PART PART 8.033171 10.10993

2198500

Zero weight Zero weight 5453.015 7258.601

2198690

PART PART 8.706037 39.95236

2201230

Zero weight Zero weight 541.6235 1185.906

2202040

Zero weight PART 699.9122 1287.685

2202190

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 1109.71 1679.86

2202500

Zero weight Zero weight 854.4814 1662.142

2202600

PART HSPF/low weight 22.37391 122.3639

2203000

PART PART 123.3907 256.9959

2203518

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 656.16 945.54

2215000

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 1292.374 2142.927

2215100

PART PART 60.95845 132.4766

2215260

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 2127.45 3040.97

2215500

HSPF HSPF 2333.293 3423.662

2215900

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 172.22 284.54

2216180

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 26.63283 63.35481

2223500

Zero weight Zero weight 1853.359 2828.815

2224500

Zero weight HSPF 1624.587 3231.738

2224940

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 5033.36 7796.27

2225000

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 5012.24 7943.75

2225270

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 241.5 355.82

2225500

Zero weight Zero weight 415.1159 685.1783

2226000

HSPF HSPF 5724.65 8618.454

2226100

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 147.62 175.11

2226362

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 340.93 521.9

2227270

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 96.52 241.12

2227500

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 93.17 501.58

2228000

PART PART 587.4256 1298.087

2228500

PART PART 10.83654 75.97353

2229000

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 4.5 49.54

2229250

PART Zero weight 3.970942 79.51

2230500

HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 66.16 114.29

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Cumulative Baseflows

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Cumulative Baseflow Residuals 2001

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Cumulative Baseflow Residuals 2009

(Less Confidence with the target baseflows)

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Calibration Statistics

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2001 2009 2001 2009 2001 2009

  • 5 feet < Residual < 5 feet

80% 76% 79% 79% 80% 82% 83%

  • 2.5 feet < Residual < 2.5 feet

50% 49% 53% 52% 54% 60% 59% Mean Error 0.2

  • 0.1
  • 0.1
  • 0.1

0.5 0.1 Absolute Mean Error 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 Root Mean Square of Error 4.9 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.7 Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99

All Target Wells Target Wells (# of WL Data > 1) North Florida WSP Area Statistical Criterion Proposed Target

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North Florida Water Supply Planning Area

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SAS Water Level Residuals

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UFA Water Level Residuals

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LFA Water Level Residuals

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SAS/UFA WL Difference 2001

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SAS/UFA WL Difference 2009

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UFA/LFA WL Difference 2001

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UFA/LFA WL Difference 2009

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Keystone Heights 2001

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Keystone Heights 2009

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Keystone Height Lake Seepage

Lake Leakage to the UFA Simulated Literature Lake Magnolia 19 - 36 in/yr 16 - 113 in/yr Lake Lowry 40 - 44 in/yr 28 - 89 in/yr Lake Geneva 6 - 9 in/yr 7 - 13 in/yr Lake Brooklyn 56 - 94 in/yr 36 - 100 in/yr

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Water Budget 2009

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Recharge Maps

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Flooding 2009

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Aquifer Parameters

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SAS Ks

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Layer 2 ICU where exists

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UFA Ts

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Layer 4 MCU where exists

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Layer 5 LFA where exists

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Final Technical Team Review Process

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Files Delivered on 05/02/16

 Modflow files  Groundwater Vistas file  Geodatabase including Calibration Targets  Tables, Graphs and Maps for Calibration Results  A document including brief description of model files  Responses to initial technical team comments  HSPF Files

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2016

Today Apr May Jun Jul

Model Calibration Completed

4/18/2016

Model Delivery

5/2/2016

Technical Team Meeting

5/11/2016

Initial Comments

5/27/2016

Technical Team Meeting

6/1/2016

Final Comments

7/1/2016

Technical Team Meeting

7/6/2016 5/2/2016 - 7/1/2016

Technical Team Review

6/1/2016 - 7/29/2016

Planning Level Model Updates Model Files Preparation for Review

4/18/2016 - 5/2/2016

Expected Timeline for Technical Team Review

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External Peer Review Process

 Develop selection criteria  Develop a list of potential candidates

 Tech Team provide suggestions for consideration by

5/18/2016

 Develop a short list

 6 for MODFLOW (3 primary, 3 substitute if needed)  3 for HSPF (1 primary, 2 substitute if needed)

 Select top 3 candidates for MODFLOW model and 1

candidate for HSPF models

 Contact the candidates for availability

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Selection Criteria

General Criteria

 Free of conflicts of interest  Not member of the model development team  Not member of the technical review team  Well qualified by virtue of education and work experience  Responsive and able to meet deadlines

Specific Criteria

 Experience in constructing and calibrating a regional-scale groundwater flow

model

 Educational background in engineering, geology, hydrology, or other related

earth science Specialized expertise or experience in one or more of the following is beneficial

 Development of models with an emphasis on surface-water/groundwater

interactions

 Developing groundwater flow models for Floridan Aquifer system  Analysis or modeling of near-surface hydrological processes  Experience in calibrating regional groundwater models using PEST  Experience in peer review of regional groundwater flow models using

MODFLOW code

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Next Steps

 Technical Team Review  Model Scenarios  External Peer Review

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Upcoming Meetings

 Technical Team Meetings

 June 01, 2016  July 06, 2016 (could be a joint meeting w/ Steering team)

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Public Input

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