Model Review May 11, 2016 1 Agenda Overview of model files - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Model Review May 11, 2016 1

Agenda  Overview of model files provided for review  Calibration Results  Technical Team Review Process  External Peer Review Process  Next Steps  Public Input 2

Overview of Model Files (Provided on 05/02/16)  Groundwater Model  Modflow Command line version  Groundwater Vistas version  GIS Files  Calibration geodatabase  Well package geodatabase  Responses to Technical Team Comments (submitted from October 2015 to January 2016)  Calibration Maps, Tables and Graphs  HSPF Files (if external hard drive provided) 3

Groundwater Model  Modflow command line version  GVistas version 4

GIS Files  Calibration geodatabase  Well package geodatabase 5

Calibration Results  Entire Model Domain  North Florida Water Supply Planning Area  Keystone Heights 6

Entire Model Domain 7

SAS Water Levels 8

SAS Water Level Residuals 9

UFA Water Levels 10

UFA Water Level Residuals 11

LFA Water Levels 12

LFA Water Level Residuals 13

SAS/UFA Water Level Difference 14

SAS/UFA Water Level Difference Residual 15

UFA/LFA Water Level Difference 16

UFA/LFA Water Level Difference Residual 17

UFA Potentometric Map 2010 2009 May/June Average 18

Springs (Individual Vents) 19

Springs (Large spring groups) 20

Springs 2001 21

Springs 2009 (Target flow is in question) 22

Baseflows GAGE Baseflow2001 Baseflow2009 BF01 BF09 2176500 PART PART 34.82047 33.9238 2197500 Zero weight Zero weight 5100.717 5380.907 2197830 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 189.41 275.06 2198000 Zero weight Zero weight 261.5639 408.5153 2198100 PART PART 8.033171 10.10993 2198500 Zero weight Zero weight 5453.015 7258.601 2198690 PART PART 8.706037 39.95236 2201230 Zero weight Zero weight 541.6235 1185.906 2202040 Zero weight PART 699.9122 1287.685 2202190 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 1109.71 1679.86 2202500 Zero weight Zero weight 854.4814 1662.142 2202600 PART HSPF/low weight 22.37391 122.3639 2203000 PART PART 123.3907 256.9959 2203518 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 656.16 945.54 2215000 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 1292.374 2142.927 2215100 PART PART 60.95845 132.4766 2215260 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 2127.45 3040.97 2215500 HSPF HSPF 2333.293 3423.662 2215900 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 172.22 284.54 2216180 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 26.63283 63.35481 2223500 Zero weight Zero weight 1853.359 2828.815 2224500 Zero weight HSPF 1624.587 3231.738 2224940 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 5033.36 7796.27 2225000 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 5012.24 7943.75 2225270 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 241.5 355.82 2225500 Zero weight Zero weight 415.1159 685.1783 2226000 HSPF HSPF 5724.65 8618.454 2226100 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 147.62 175.11 2226362 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 340.93 521.9 2227270 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 96.52 241.12 2227500 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 93.17 501.58 2228000 PART PART 587.4256 1298.087 2228500 PART PART 10.83654 75.97353 2229000 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 4.5 49.54 2229250 PART Zero weight 3.970942 79.51 23 2230500 HSPF/low weight HSPF/low weight 66.16 114.29

Cumulative Baseflows 24

Cumulative Baseflow Residuals 2001 25

Cumulative Baseflow Residuals 2009 (Less Confidence with the target baseflows) 26

Calibration Statistics Target Wells North Florida WSP All Target Wells (# of WL Data > 1) Area Proposed Statistical Criterion Target 2001 2009 2001 2009 2001 2009 -5 feet < Residual < 5 feet 80% 76% 79% 79% 80% 82% 83% -2.5 feet < Residual < 2.5 feet 50% 49% 53% 52% 54% 60% 59% Mean Error 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.1 Absolute Mean Error 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 Root Mean Square of Error 4.9 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.7 Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 27

North Florida Water Supply Planning Area 28

SAS Water Level Residuals 29

UFA Water Level Residuals 30

LFA Water Level Residuals 31

SAS/UFA WL Difference 2001 32

SAS/UFA WL Difference 2009 33

UFA/LFA WL Difference 2001 34

UFA/LFA WL Difference 2009 35

Keystone Heights 2001 36

Keystone Heights 2009 37

Keystone Height Lake Seepage Leakage to the UFA Lake Simulated Literature Lake Magnolia 19 - 36 in/yr 16 - 113 in/yr Lake Lowry 40 - 44 in/yr 28 - 89 in/yr Lake Geneva 6 - 9 in/yr 7 - 13 in/yr Lake Brooklyn 56 - 94 in/yr 36 - 100 in/yr 38

Water Budget 2009 39

Recharge Maps 40

Flooding 2009 41

Aquifer Parameters 42

SAS Ks 43

Layer 2 ICU where exists 44

UFA Ts 45

Layer 4 MCU where exists 46

Layer 5 LFA where exists 47

Final Technical Team Review Process 48

Files Delivered on 05/02/16  Modflow files  Groundwater Vistas file  Geodatabase including Calibration Targets  Tables, Graphs and Maps for Calibration Results  A document including brief description of model files  Responses to initial technical team comments  HSPF Files 49

Expected Timeline for Technical Team Review Technical Team Review 5/2/2016 - 7/1/2016 6/1/2016 - Planning Level Model Updates 7/29/2016 Model Files Preparation for 4/18/2016 - 5/2/2016 Review Technical Team Meeting 5/11/2016 Model Calibration Completed Initial Comments Final Comments 4/18/2016 5/27/2016 7/1/2016 Model Delivery Technical Team Meeting Technical Team Meeting 5/2/2016 6/1/2016 7/6/2016 2016 Apr May Jun Jul Today 50

External Peer Review Process  Develop selection criteria  Develop a list of potential candidates  Tech Team provide suggestions for consideration by 5/18/2016  Develop a short list  6 for MODFLOW (3 primary, 3 substitute if needed)  3 for HSPF (1 primary, 2 substitute if needed)  Select top 3 candidates for MODFLOW model and 1 candidate for HSPF models  Contact the candidates for availability 51

Selection Criteria General Criteria  Free of conflicts of interest  Not member of the model development team  Not member of the technical review team  Well qualified by virtue of education and work experience  Responsive and able to meet deadlines Specific Criteria  Experience in constructing and calibrating a regional-scale groundwater flow model  Educational background in engineering, geology, hydrology, or other related earth science Specialized expertise or experience in one or more of the following is beneficial  Development of models with an emphasis on surface-water/groundwater interactions  Developing groundwater flow models for Floridan Aquifer system  Analysis or modeling of near-surface hydrological processes  Experience in calibrating regional groundwater models using PEST  Experience in peer review of regional groundwater flow models using MODFLOW code 52

Next Steps  Technical Team Review  Model Scenarios  External Peer Review 53

Upcoming Meetings  Technical Team Meetings  June 01, 2016  July 06, 2016 (could be a joint meeting w/ Steering team) 54

Public Input 55