Michael Bailey, PE WECC 2019 Scenarios Focus Question How might - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

WECC 2019 Scenarios Study Report

RAC Sub-committee Meetings January 14-16, 2010

Michael Bailey, PE

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WECC 2019 Scenarios Focus Question

How might customer demand How do we define customers, in what segments

• r categories? With DER? Grid connected?

for electric services What services beyond commodity supply of electricity? What kinds of enhanced services? in the Western Interconnection evolve as new technologies Technology innovation that impacts distributed energy as well as utility scale supply and delivery systems. and policies Policies at all levels. create more market options, and with that, Markets: regulated and unregulated. Options: Power supplies. what risks and opportunities may emerge for the power industry Who and what players will be in it? in sustaining electric reliability? What risks to the reliability of the Bulk Power Systems in the Western Interconnection? What standards and requirements apply?

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Scenario Matrix

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NREL EFS Demand-side Scenarios

Slow Technology Advancement Moderate Technology Advancement Rapid Technology Advancement Reference Customer Adoption Reference Adoption, Slow Technology Advancement Reference Adoption, Moderate Technology Advancement Reference Adoption, Rapid Technology Advancement Medium Customer Adoption Medium Adoption, Slow Technology Advancement Medium Adoption, Moderate Technology Advancement Medium Adoption, Rapid Technology Advancement High Customer Adoption High Adoption, Slow Technology Advancement High Adoption, Moderate Technology Advancement High Adoption, Rapid Technology Advancement SC3 SC1 SC4 SC2

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Scenario Loads (GWh) by State/Province

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Scenario Loads CAGRs

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Generation Candidate Portfolio

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Generation Candidate Portfolio Change

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Biopower Coal CSP Curtailment Geothermal Hydro Imports Land-based Wind NG-CC NG-CT Nuclear Offshore Wind Oil-Gas-Steam Rooftop PV Storage Utility PV

MW

Candidate Generation Portfolio Capacity Additions: 2038 vs 2028 (121 GW)

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Unserved Load with 2028 ADS Retirements

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2028 ADS Scheduled Retirements by Region

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2028 ADS Scheduled Retirements by Tech Type

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Path Flows with 2028 ADS Retirements

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Path Flows without 2028 ADS Retirements

• No Transmission Constraints (NTC) and No

dispatchable DER-EV (NEV)

• No Transmission Constraints (NTC) and With

dispatchable DER-EV (WEV)

• With Transmission Constraints (WTC) and

No dispatchable DER-EV (NEV)

• With Transmission Constraints (WTC) and

With dispatchable DER-EV (WEV)

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Scenario Scensitivities

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Unserved Load – All Scenarios

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Diurnal Load Shapes

• 2038 Scenario 2
• 2028 ADS

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Resource Mix

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Resource Additions/Displacements

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Change in Path Utilization

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Path Flow Comparison

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Locational Marginal Price

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Cost of Unserved Load

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Levelized Cost of Energy

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Replace vs Life Extension Costs

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2028 ADS Retirements – Replace vs Life Extension

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New Resource Additions – Capital Cost

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Scenario Summary

Factor Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Load Profile Reference Adoption, Moderate Technology Advancement High Adoption, Moderate Technology Advancement Reference Adoption, Slow Technology Advancement Medium Adoption, Moderate Technology Advancement Unserved Load Minor High Minor Minor Impact of Transmission Constaints Minor High Minor Noticeable Effectiveness of DER-EV Minor High Minor Noticeable Path Flows Increased utilization across Basin, Rockies, and Southwest regions. LMPs Below $30/MWh Above $100/MWh Below $30/MWh Below $40/MWh

• Resource retirements between 2028 and 2038, as modeled in the

2028 ADS P2v2.0, amount to 27,000 MW of installed capacity that could be lost to the grid and could result in significant levels of unserved energy amounting to as much as 16,000 GWh annually in the long term.

• Each of the four WECC Scenarios, if realized, would change

inter-Regional flows within the Western Interconnection. Path utilizations were observed to increase, especially in the Basin and Rocky Mountain regions.

• Scenario 2 could present a significant risk to the ability of load

serving entities to meet all demands for energy in 2038. The availability of dispatchable distributed energy could significantly mitigate the risk of unserved energy for Scenario 2.

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Observations

• All four Scenarios indicate an increasing need for natural

gas-fired resources. Thus, resource planners should ensure that fuel supply and other policies support the

• ngoing future use of natural gas for power generation.
• With increased electrification, the peaks and valleys of

diurnal load profiles become spikier, leading to

• perational challenges and increased risks to system

reliability during peak and ramping periods.

• Flexible DER from electric vehicle battery storage (DER-

EV) and battery storage in general has the potential of being very effective in smoothing the spikiness of diurnal electrification load profiles.

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Observations

• Pricing points for flexible DER at or above average

monthly marginal prices for energy appear to be most effective in smoothing the spikiness of diurnal electrification load profiles.

• The most significant influence of policy drivers on

the study results was that of a $55/ton CO2 price which led to all coal fired generation being displaced.

• The amount of clean energy technologies in the
• verall resource portfolio mix remained constant

across all scenarios at between 65% and 70%. All available renewable generation within the NREL generation portfolio was committed in the results.

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Observations

• While the amount of natural gas in the resource portfolio

mix increased as load increased, its shares of the overall resource portfolio mix ranged between 30% and 35%. It was observed that a heavy dependence on natural gas fired generation is required with coal displacements and increased spikiness of diurnal load shapes.

• With increased concentration of renewable price taking

resources, average LMPs dropped to below $30/MWh in all cases with the exception of Scenario 2 where load was higher and congestion was observed in the Basin and Rocky Mountain regions.

• Transmission path utilizations increased substantially in

the Basin region of Western Interconnection (WI).

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Observations

• There is a need for market mechanisms to evolve

as electrification and customer adoption increase in terms including rates, pricing, time-of-use (TOU), and technology advancement.

• Better tools, methods, and data are needed to

model DER effictively.

• Development of load and generation scenario

ensembles to augment WECC’s study capabilities would be beneficial. Examples are high renewable and storage resource ensembles and more refined end-use load models.

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Observations

• Resource retirements across the Western Interconnection

(WI) need to be investigated and life extensions of existing resources should be considered.

• With transformational changes occurring to the WI, better

methods of co-optimizing generation and transmission need to be developed.

• Better methods and models need to be developed to

represent DER.

• Load and generation ensembles based on transformational

drivers need to be assembled and used in better sensitivity

• studies. New and better tools and methods of studying

the transformational changes occurring to the WI need to be developed.

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Recommendations

• Collaboration with the national laboratories (e.g.,

NREL) needs to continue to leverage the research and expertise that they offer.

• Better metrics on storage technologies and the

benefits they may offer to the BPS need to be better understood and studied.

• Seasonal variations on path flows need to be

studied further as resource portfolios change.

• Transmission enhancements to the Basin and

Rocky Mountain regions need to be studied further.

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Recommendations

Contact:

Michael Bailey, PE Senior Staff Engineer mbailey@wecc.org

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