WECC 2019 Scenarios Study Report RAC Sub-committee Meetings January 14-16, 2010 Michael Bailey, PE
WECC 2019 Scenarios Focus Question How might customer demand How do we define customers, in what segments or categories? With DER? Grid connected? for electric services What services beyond commodity supply of electricity? What kinds of enhanced services? in the Western Interconnection evolve as new Technology innovation that impacts distributed technologies energy as well as utility scale supply and delivery systems. and policies Policies at all levels. create more market options, and with that, Markets: regulated and unregulated. Options: Power supplies. what risks and opportunities may emerge for Who and what players will be in it? the power industry in sustaining electric reliability? What risks to the reliability of the Bulk Power Systems in the Western Interconnection? What standards and requirements apply? 2
Scenario Matrix 3
NREL EFS Demand-side Scenarios Slow Technology Moderate Rapid Technology Advancement Technology Advancement Advancement Reference Customer Reference Adoption, Reference Adoption, Reference Adoption, Adoption Slow Technology Moderate Technology Rapid Technology Advancement Advancement Advancement SC3 SC1 Medium Customer Medium Adoption, Medium Adoption, Medium Adoption, Adoption Slow Technology Moderate Technology Rapid Technology Advancement Advancement Advancement SC4 High Customer High Adoption, Slow High Adoption, High Adoption, Rapid Adoption Technology Moderate Technology Technology Advancement Advancement Advancement SC2 4
Scenario Loads (GWh) by State/Province 5
Scenario Loads CAGRs 6
Generation Candidate Portfolio 7
Generation Candidate Portfolio Change Candidate Generation Portfolio Capacity Additions: 2038 vs 2028 (121 GW) Utility PV Storage Rooftop PV Oil-Gas-Steam Offshore Wind Nuclear NG-CT NG-CC Land-based Wind Imports Hydro Geothermal Curtailment CSP Coal Biopower 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 MW 8
Unserved Load with 2028 ADS Retirements 9
2028 ADS Scheduled Retirements by Region 10
2028 ADS Scheduled Retirements by Tech Type 11
Path Flows with 2028 ADS Retirements 12
Path Flows without 2028 ADS Retirements 13
Scenario Scensitivities No Transmission Constraints (NTC) and No dispatchable DER-EV (NEV) No Transmission Constraints (NTC) and With dispatchable DER-EV (WEV) With Transmission Constraints (WTC) and No dispatchable DER-EV (NEV) With Transmission Constraints (WTC) and With dispatchable DER-EV (WEV) 14
Unserved Load – All Scenarios 15
Diurnal Load Shapes 2038 Scenario 2 2028 ADS 16
Resource Mix 17
Resource Additions/Displacements 18
19
Change in Path Utilization 20
Path Flow Comparison 21
Locational Marginal Price 22
Cost of Unserved Load 23
Levelized Cost of Energy 24
Replace vs Life Extension Costs 25
2028 ADS Retirements – Replace vs Life Extension 26
New Resource Additions – Capital Cost 27
Scenario Summary Factor Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Load Profile Reference High Adoption, Reference Medium Adoption, Moderate Adoption, Slow Adoption, Moderate Technology Technology Moderate Technology Advancement Advancement Technology Advancement Advancement Unserved Load Minor High Minor Minor Impact of Minor High Minor Noticeable Transmission Constaints Effectiveness of Minor High Minor Noticeable DER-EV Path Flows Increased utilization across Basin, Rockies, and Southwest regions. LMPs Below $30/MWh Above $100/MWh Below $30/MWh Below $40/MWh 28
Observations Resource retirements between 2028 and 2038, as modeled in the 2028 ADS P2v2.0, amount to 27,000 MW of installed capacity that could be lost to the grid and could result in significant levels of unserved energy amounting to as much as 16,000 GWh annually in the long term. Each of the four WECC Scenarios, if realized, would change inter-Regional flows within the Western Interconnection. Path utilizations were observed to increase, especially in the Basin and Rocky Mountain regions. Scenario 2 could present a significant risk to the ability of load serving entities to meet all demands for energy in 2038. The availability of dispatchable distributed energy could significantly mitigate the risk of unserved energy for Scenario 2. 29
Observations All four Scenarios indicate an increasing need for natural gas-fired resources. Thus, resource planners should ensure that fuel supply and other policies support the ongoing future use of natural gas for power generation. With increased electrification, the peaks and valleys of diurnal load profiles become spikier, leading to operational challenges and increased risks to system reliability during peak and ramping periods. Flexible DER from electric vehicle battery storage (DER- EV) and battery storage in general has the potential of being very effective in smoothing the spikiness of diurnal electrification load profiles. 30
Observations Pricing points for flexible DER at or above average monthly marginal prices for energy appear to be most effective in smoothing the spikiness of diurnal electrification load profiles. The most significant influence of policy drivers on the study results was that of a $55/ton CO 2 price which led to all coal fired generation being displaced. The amount of clean energy technologies in the overall resource portfolio mix remained constant across all scenarios at between 65% and 70%. All available renewable generation within the NREL generation portfolio was committed in the results. 31
Observations While the amount of natural gas in the resource portfolio mix increased as load increased, its shares of the overall resource portfolio mix ranged between 30% and 35%. It was observed that a heavy dependence on natural gas fired generation is required with coal displacements and increased spikiness of diurnal load shapes. With increased concentration of renewable price taking resources, average LMPs dropped to below $30/MWh in all cases with the exception of Scenario 2 where load was higher and congestion was observed in the Basin and Rocky Mountain regions. Transmission path utilizations increased substantially in the Basin region of Western Interconnection (WI). 32
Observations There is a need for market mechanisms to evolve as electrification and customer adoption increase in terms including rates, pricing, time-of-use (TOU), and technology advancement. Better tools, methods, and data are needed to model DER effictively. Development of load and generation scenario ensembles to augment WECC’s study capabilities would be beneficial. Examples are high renewable and storage resource ensembles and more refined end-use load models. 33
Recommendations Resource retirements across the Western Interconnection (WI) need to be investigated and life extensions of existing resources should be considered. With transformational changes occurring to the WI, better methods of co-optimizing generation and transmission need to be developed. Better methods and models need to be developed to represent DER. Load and generation ensembles based on transformational drivers need to be assembled and used in better sensitivity studies. New and better tools and methods of studying the transformational changes occurring to the WI need to be developed. 34
Recommendations Collaboration with the national laboratories ( e.g., NREL) needs to continue to leverage the research and expertise that they offer. Better metrics on storage technologies and the benefits they may offer to the BPS need to be better understood and studied. Seasonal variations on path flows need to be studied further as resource portfolios change. Transmission enhancements to the Basin and Rocky Mountain regions need to be studied further. 35
Contact: Michael Bailey, PE Senior Staff Engineer mbailey@wecc.org 36
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