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Michael Bailey Meeting Plan Presentation on Report Highlights - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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WECC 2038 Scenarios Report SDS Approval Meeting April 20, 2020 Michael Bailey Meeting Plan Presentation on Report Highlights Remarks by the WECC Scenarios Task Force Questions, Answers, and General Discussion Approval

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WECC 2038 Scenarios Report – SDS Approval Meeting

April 20, 2020

Michael Bailey

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Meeting Plan

  • Presentation on Report Highlights
  • Remarks by the WECC Scenarios Task Force
  • Questions, Answers, and General Discussion
  • Approval Vote
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  • WECC and its stakeholders developed the

four future scenarios for the Western Interconnection based on a “focus question” developed during a scenario development workshop held March 27-28, 2018 at WECC’s headquarters in Salt Lake City, Utah.

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Scenario Development Workshop

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How might customer demand How do we define customers, in what segments

  • r categories? With DER? Grid connected?

for electric services What services beyond commodity supply of electricity? What kinds of enhanced services? in the Western Interconnection evolve as new technologies Technology innovation that affects distributed energy as well as utility scale supply and delivery systems. and policies Policies at all levels. create more market options, and with that, Markets: regulated and unregulated. Options: Power supplies. what risks and opportunities may emerge for the power industry Who and what players will be in it? in sustaining electric reliability? What risks to the reliability of the BPS in the Western Interconnection? What standards and requirements apply?

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Focus Question

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Scenario Matrix

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  • GridView tool used for production cost model

(PCM) analysis.

  • WECC Generation Capital Cost Tool for capital

expansion analysis.

  • PowerWorld tool used for power flow analysis

and the construction of the PCM model and to perform data validations.

  • Various productivity tools to create model

inputs, parse results, and create charts and tables.

  • The NREL Electrification Futures Study (EFS),

Demand-Side Scenarios, and Standard Scenarios.

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Study Tools

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NREL Mid-Case Resource Model

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Generation Resource Model

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Generation Resource Additions

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Biopower Coal CSP Curtailment Geothermal Hydro Imports Land-based Wind NG-CC NG-CT Nuclear Offshore Wind Oil-Gas-Steam Rooftop PV Storage Utility PV

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Candidate Generation Portfolio Capacity Additions: 2038 vs 2028 (121 GW)

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Generation Resource Comparison – 2038 vs 2028

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Resource Mix – Reference Case

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Resource Additions/Displacements – Reference Case

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Reduction in CO2 Emissions

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Reduction in Water Consumption

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NREL Demand-Side Load Profiles

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NREL Demand-Side Load Comparison

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Annual Load Comparison

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Load CAGRs

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Diurnal Load Shapes – Reference Case

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Diurnal Load Shapes – Scenario 1

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Diurnal Load Shapes – Scenario 2

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Net Load – Reference Case

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Net Load – Scenario 1

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Net Load – Scenario 2

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Unserved Load – Reference Case

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Unserved Load – Scenario 1

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Unserved Load – Scenario 2

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Storage – Reference Case

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Storage – Scenario 1

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Storage – Scenario 2

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Path Utilization – Reference Case

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Path Utilization – Scenario 1

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Path Utilization – Scenario 2

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Path Utilization – Seasonal Variations

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LCOE – New Generation

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LCOE – Existing Generation

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Capital Expansion Costs

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  • 1.76% Weighted Average CAGR for Western

Interconnection based on IRPs.

  • NREL EFS bottoms-up approach to load

modeling suggests most electrification load growth will come from Electric Vehicles.

  • Electrification, in this study, focused on fuel-

switching transition.

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Key Takeaways – Load Growth

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  • Main Contributors to Occurrences of

Unserved Load:

  • Diurnal Electrification Demand Higher at

Evening Peak

  • Displaced Baseload Resources (Coal)
  • Higher Penetrations of Variable Resources

(Especially Solar).

  • Storage and Dispatchable Demand-Side

Options Highly Effective at Reducing Unserved Load.

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Key Takeaways – Unserved Load

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  • Increased dependence on gas, solar, and wind for

resource adequacy.

  • Coal displaced.
  • Increased dependence on gas for flexibility.
  • Solar, without storage partner, contributes little

to ELCC at evening peak.

  • Gas was marginal in commitment at peak.
  • Storage and demand-side management highly

effective to mitigate against unserved load by flattening the diurnal load shapes.

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Key Takeaways – Resource Mix

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  • DER expected to double by 2038.
  • Growth in DER expected to come primarily

from solar PV.

  • Electric vehicles (EV) are the wild card in

DER growth, depending on deployment and implementation strategies.

  • Time-of-use strategies for EV could be of

great benefit or detriment.

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Key Takeaways – DER

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  • California largest importer (yesterday, today,

tomorrow).

  • Rocky Mountain region becomes net importer

with coal retirements.

  • Exports from the Desert Southwest and Basin

regions increase with increases solar and coal retirements.

  • Path transfers from Desert Southwest and

through Basin increase.

  • Energy production from Desert Southwest

especially important during Winter months.

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Key Takeaways – Inter-Regional

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  • Close correlation between LMP price spikes and

unserved load capped at $4000/MWh modeled in GridView.

  • LMPs range from high positive (unserved load) to

negative (energy spillage).

  • Energy spillage driven by higher levels of solar at

lower load levels.

  • LCOEs for new resources within the average PCM

commitment/dispatch window between $100/MWh and $25/MWh.

  • Life extension are estimated to be roughly 60% of

new builds.

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Key Takeaways – Economics

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  • CO2 emissions in 2038 decreased by roughly

30% from that of 2018, from 0.27 billion metric tons to 0.19 billion metric tons, primarily due to the displacement of coal.

  • Water consumption for thermal cooling in

2038 decreased by roughly 19% from that of 2018, from 190 billion gallons to 154 billion gallons, primarily due to the displacement of coal.

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Key Takeaways – Environmental

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  • Demand-Side Management
  • Fuel Prices
  • Resource Flexibility
  • Electrical Storage
  • ADS Extension to 20 year time-frame
  • Load and Generation Ensembles
  • Micro-Grids
  • EV Deployment Strategies
  • Distributed Energy Resources
  • Consumer Choice Modeling
  • Simultaneous Feasibility Modeling

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Forward Looking – Sensitivity Studies

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Contact:

Michael Bailey, P.E. Senior Staff Engineer mbailey@wecc.org

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