MARKETS MATTER MARSHALL THOMAS F&W FORESTRY SERVICES 6/27/2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
MARKETS MATTER MARSHALL THOMAS F&W FORESTRY SERVICES 6/27/2018 TOPICS Quick review of where we are Long term timber prices (deflated) Demand forecasts Supply - Age class distributions FIA data on wood source (planted vs.
MARSHALL THOMAS F&W FORESTRY SERVICES 6/27/2018
prices for goods and services are determined by the open market and consumers, in which the laws and forces of supply and demand are free from any intervention by a government, price-setting monopoly, or other authority. Proponents of the concept of free market contrast it with a regulated market, in which a government intervenes in supply and demand through various methods such as tariffs used to restrict trade and protect the economy. In an idealized free market economy, prices for goods and services are set freely by the forces of supply and demand and are allowed to reach their point of equilibrium without intervention by government policy.
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
$ PER TON YEAR
Southern Pine Stumpage Prices
2017 Dollars (1952-2017)
Pulpwood Small Sawtimber Large Sawtimber Source: 1952-1975 prices reported by GFCs timber sale records; 1976-2017 prices reported by Timber Mart -South across the southern states (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, & VA)
Source: RISI 15-Year Timber Forecast
PINE PULPWOOD PRICE AND 15-YEAR-OLD PLANTATION ACRES – 2017 DOLLARS CAN WE FILL DEMAND WITH FEWER YOUNG STANDS?
PINE SAWTIMBER PRICE AND 28-YEAR-OLD PLANTATION ACRES – 2017 DOLLARS HOW LONG UNTIL THE OVERSUPPLY IS GONE?
DOES FIA DATA REFLECT WHERE WOOD REALLY COMES FROM? HOW MANY ARE ABOVE THIS? HOW MANY BELOW?
Softwood Removals in Cubic Feet on Private Timberland Southwide Natural Stands 2,055,494,720 37.5% Clear evidence of artificial regeneration 3,431,968,114 62.5% Total 5,487,462,834 100.0%
greenfield sawmills in the U.S. South.
South produced 18.2 BBF of lumber, according to Lumber Track, a publication of the Western Wood Products Association.
companies are making in their existing facilities to bump up production capacity.
in Maine, facilities that will initially produce more than 10 million board feet of CLT annually.
Millinocket.
announce the location of its new facility in the next two months.
years.
Canada – so is this a constant?
new locks, the expansion was opened on 26 June 2016. The expansion doubled the Canal's capacity. On March 2nd 2018, the Panama Canal Authority announced that 3,000 New Panamax ships had crossed the canal expansion during its first 20 months of operation.”
$0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 $350,000,000 $400,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Export Value (US $)
China Log Exports from Southern Ports
Charleston Mobile Norfolk Savannah Wilmington
RANDOM LENGTHS COMPOSITE PRICE/LARGE SAWTIMBER STUMPAGE WHAT’S DRIVING THE INCREASING RATIO?
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YEAR
RL Southern Pine Lumber Composite Price/TMS Southern Pine Large Sawtimber Stumpage Price
(Nominal Yearly Average) Lumber/Sawtimber Ratio
*Stumpage prices reported by Timber Mart-South across the southern states.
SOUTHWIDE LOGGING BUSINESS DEMOGRAPHICS ARE WE HAVING TROUBLE FINDING LOGGERS?
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Number of Employees per Firm Number of Employees/Firms Year
Number of Employees Number of Firms Employees per Firm
One Few Sellers Monopoly Oligopoly Buyers Monopsony Oligopsony
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wrong?