Alaskas Forest I ndustry: Timber Harvest and Recent Trends Erik - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Erik Berg Todd Morgan Charles Keegan

Bureau of Business & Economic Research University of Montana PNW-FI A 2013 Client Meeting May 15, 2013

Alaska’s Forest I ndustry: Timber Harvest and Recent Trends

What is Timber Products Output (TPO)?

Part of FIA that provides

information on wood use Accomplished with:

• Mill surveys
• Logging utilization studies
• Firewood and other studies
• Plot data

Why is TPO important?

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ange.” Accur curate a te accounti counting ng o

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total al r removal als a and w wood

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utiliza lizatio ion r relie lies o

• n TPO data f

from m mill a l and f field ld stud tudies. TPO infor

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duplicated ted w withi thin F n FIA. A.

• Removal

als f for t timber er p products ucts a are o e only p parti tial ally captur tured ed b by plot d

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a.

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timber p proc

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res esidue, and and mill r residue a ue are n e not c t captur tured ed a at all b by plot d

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TPO in the West

BBER = Bureau of Business & Economic Research

• Complete census of timber processors
• Logging utilization studies
• Data, analysis, & publications

Timber Harvest and Industry Reports

Alaska 2005, 2011 California, Idaho 2000, 2006, 2011 Nevada, Wyoming 2005, 2010 Montana 2004, 2009 Oregon 2003, 2008 Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah 2002, 2007, 2012

Forest I ndustry Analysis

• Western States
• Describe industry structure,

capacity, condition, and changes

• Track wood fiber from forest to

marketplace

• Associate key economic indicators

Background for the 2011 Alaska census: the “Great Recession”

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

• 5

10 15 20 25 30

1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Home starts (millions) Billion board feet

Western states harvest (Scribner log scale) Western states lumber production (Lumber Tally) U.S. New privately owned housing units started (right axis)

(from Keegan et al. 2012)

2011 Alaska Forest I ndustry Census (not a sample!)

• Primary Production, not secondary!
• Mill type, capacity, equipment, employment
• Timber harvest volume, use, species, county, &
• wnership
• Mill residue & wood fiber use
• Product volume, sales, & geographic distribution

Alaska’s timber harvest by ownership

(Data from Zhou and Warren 2012)

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Timber Harvested (MMBF) Calendar Year Total National forests State and other public Tribal and private

Alaska active timber processing mills

Number of active timber processing mills by resource area

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Southeast South-central & Western Interior Number of Facilities Resource Area 2005 2011

Southeast South-central & Western Interior Far North

• 37 mills were inactive in 2011.
• 12 active mills closed between 2005 and 2011.
• 17 active mills were mothballed (inactive).

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Southeast South-central & Western Interior MMBF Resource Area

Timber volume received by primary mills by resource area

2005 2011

Timber volume received by primary Alaskan facilities, by ownership origin (log export facilities not included)

5 10 15 20 25

Private & tribal National Forest State &

• ther public

MMBF

Ownership Class

2005 2011

Alaskan 2011 lumber & sawn products production by resource area Alaskan 2011 house log production by resource area

10 20 30 40 50 Southeast South-central & Western Interior MMBF

Resource Area

2005 2011 100 200 300 400 Southeast South-central & Western Interior Thousand Lineal Feet

Resource Area

2005 2011

Wood for energy: 2011 mill residues (in BDUs) used for energy by resource area

• In 2011 27% of mill coarse residues

were used for fuel, compared to 11% in 2005.

• In 2011 firewood sales made up

15% of all AK wood product sales.

2005 2011 Note: In 2005 Alaskan mills operated at 21.4 % of total capacity, compared to 15 % in 2011.

Total 2005 production = 54.8 MMBF lumber tally Total 2011 production = 20.9 MMBF lumber tally

Sawmill production by capacity size class

2005 2011

Alaska 36.5% West Coast 59.4% Other States 3.0% Canada 0.9% Other Countries 0.3% Alaska 74.8% West Coast 17.4% Other States 5.5% Canada 2.3%

Destinations of Alaska's primary wood products & residue: % sales value (2011 $)

2002-2011 Alaska log exports

100 200 300 400 500 600 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Dollars per MBF MMBF Scribner

Year

Volume Average Value

(Source: S. Alexander 2012)

Primary employment - Alaska's forest products industry 1969-2011

(U.S. Department of Commerce 2012; S. Alexander 2012; BBER estimated data)

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Number of Workers

Forestry, logging, and wood products Pulp Total

Note: Total Alaska active mill FTE employment from 2011 census = 150.

I n Summary: 2005 vs. 2011

• Total number of active facilities changed little, but many

were mothballed or closed completely.

• Timber volume received and lumber and houselog

production declined + / - 50% .

• Wood for fuel: Large increases in I nterior demand and

sales.

• Mill capacity utilization: Down to 15% in 2011! Potential for

substantial increases in production.

• Log Exports: Large increases- huge ramp-up in Asian

demand, particularly for lower quality logs.

I nternet: www.BBER.umt.edu Email: Erik.Berg@business.umt.edu Phone: (406) 243-4045

Special thanks: Micah Scudder, Chelsea McIver, Colin Sorensen- BBER Susan Alexander, USDA FS PNW Research Station Dan Parrent, USDA FS State and Private Forestry Allen Brackley, USDA FS PNW Research Station Glenn Christensen, USDA FS PNW FIA Juneau Economic Development Council Alaska Dept. of Nat. Resources Division of Forestry- many indiv