Market intelligence for the energy, chemical and fertilizer - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Market intelligence for the energy, chemical and fertilizer industries www.icis.com 1

Powered by Data. Driven by Insight. At ICIS, our aim is to give companies a competitive advantage . We deliver trusted pricing data, analytics tools, high-value news, analysis and independent consulting, enabling our customers to make better-informed decisions for trading and planning. Learn more about ICIS www.icis.com www.icis.com 2 2

How can we help? Purchase and trade Inform your day to day trading activities and understand price drivers with immediate access to spot and contract price assessments for over 180 commodities Advise and support your business strategy Understand market dynamics impacting your strategies and get support planning and implementing new projects to drive growth Improve your planning and forecasting Understand short to long term trends to support your commercial decisions and inform your buying and selling strategy Increase your profitability Make sense of business costs and margins to drive profitability Keep up to date with latest developments React quickly to real time breaking news and maintain a competitive advantage www.icis.com 3

Market intelligence to support your commercial planning & decision making Pricing News intelligence Training and Analytics Conferences Solutions Supply and Consultancy Demand www.icis.com 4

Critical information as it’s needed Transactional Short-Mid Term Planning Long Term Planning Pricing Intelligence: Pricing Intelligence: Analysis and Forecasting:  Chemical price reports  Outlook chemical reports  Supply and demand database  Energy market reports  Outlook fertilizer reports  Annual studies  Fertilizer price reports  Chemical forward curves  Consulting  Chemical price alerts  Price history  Scenario Studies  Price history News: Analysis and Forecasting:  Global real-time news  Price forecast reports service  Margin reports  Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions  Power and Carbon Analytics  LNG Solution  Training & conferences www.icis.com 5

Expertise across upstream and downstream petrochemical markets Click here to search ACIDS FERTILIZER PHENOLICS Polyethylene for your commodity Acetic Acid Ammonia Acetone Polyethylene Pipe Grade Acrylate Esters Phosphate Bisphenol A Polymethyl Methacrylate Acrylic Acid / Acrylate Esters Potash Phenol Polypropylene Hydrochloric Acid Sulphur Polystyrene Request for a Sulphuric Acid CHLOR-ALKALIS Polyvinyl Chloride sample report ALCOHOLS Urea Caustic Soda Styrene Acrylonitrile Ethanol Ethylene Dichloride Methanol INTERMEDIATES Methylene Chloride POLYURETHANE CHAIN Oxo-Alcohols Butanediol Vinyl Chloride Monomer Isocyanates Epichlorohydrin Polyols AROMATICS & DERIVATIVES Epoxy Resins FIBRE CHAIN Aromatics Ethanolamines Acrylonitrile SOLVENTS Benzene Maleic Anhydride Adipic Acid Aromatics and Aliphatic Solvents Cumene Melamine Caprolactam Butyl Acetate Cyclohexane Methyl Methacrylate Dimethyl Terephthalate Ethyl Acetate Ethylbenzene Monopropylene Glycol Ethylene Glycol Glycol Ethers Styrene Phthalic Anhydride Ethylene Oxide Hexane Toluene Propylene Oxide Monoethylene Glycol Isopropanol Xylenes-Mixed Xylenes Soda Ash Nylon Methyl Ethyl Ketone Titanium Dioxide Orthoxylene Methyl Isobutyl Ketone BASE OILS Vinyl Acetate Monomer Paraxylene Naphtha Solvent Base Oils Polyester Staple Fibre & Filament Yarns Propylene Glycol Ether Paraffin Wax OIL & FEEDSTOCKS Polyethylene Terephthalate Solvents Ethyl Tertiary Butyl Ether Terephthalic Acid White Spirit BUTADIENE/C4 & RUBBERS Jet Kerosene Acrylonitrile Butadiene Rubber Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether PLASTICS OLEOCHEMICALS & Butadiene Naphtha Acrylonitrile-Butadiene-Styrene SURFACTANTS Ethylene-Propylene-Diene Monomer Engineering Plastics Alcohol Ethoxylates Polybutadiene Rubber OLEFINS Ethylene Vinyl Acetate Biodiesel Styrene Butadiene Rubber Ethylene Plasticisers Fatty Acids Propylene Polyacetal Fatty Alcohols Raffinate Polybutylene Terephthalate Glycerine Polycarbonate Linear Alkylbenzene Soap Noodles Sorbitol www.icis.com 6

Asian surfactants – Market trends and outlook Explore the surfactants market with ICIS Malini Hariharan Head of South Asia/Southeast Asia Markets Kheng Wee Loy Jackie Wong Yuanlin Koh Markets Reporter Markets Editor Markets Reporter www.icis.com 7

Agenda Price trends and key price drivers Linear Alkyl Benzene Fatty Demand and supply Alcohol Ethoxylates Fatty Alcohols Surfactant industry trends www.icis.com 8

Fatty alcohols www.icis.com 9

Fatty alcohol prices drifted lower in 2018 and this trend has continued in Q1 2019 3000 Better demand-supply El Nino resulted in significant balance as a result of lower drop in palm oil production, Recovery in palm plant utilization and pushing PKO and C12-14 oil production put 2500 shutdowns lifted prices alcohols prices downward pressure on prices Softness in PKO prices due to high stock levels continued to 2000 weigh on C12-14 alcohols prices 1500 1000 Avg 2016: $1820 Avg 2017: $2120 (up 16%) Avg 2018: $1480 (down 30%) Avg Q1 2019: $1280 (down 14%) 500 Fatty Alcohols C12-14 Alcohol FOB Asia SE : USD/tonne Source: ICIS Request for a sample report www.icis.com 10

High stocks despite declining production levels has put pressure on palm oil prices; situation could continue to H2 2000 1800 Avg 2017: $1255 (down 4%) 1600 Avg 2018: $920 (down 27%) Avg 2016: $1310 1400 Avg Q1 2019: $680 (down 26%) 1200 $/tonn 1000 800 600 400 Avg 2016: $650 Avg 2016: $660 Avg 2016: $565 Avg 2016: $510 200 PKO CPO www.icis.com 11

Malaysia’s PKO stocks are still quite high and keeping prices under pressure 500,000 400,000 Tonnes 300,000 200,000 100,000 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Source: MPOB www.icis.com 12

Fatty alcohol demand prospects are strong with Asia expected to contribute most of the growth; but industry suffers from chronic overcapacity Fatty Alcohols Demand Soaps and detergents – a major segment Asia Pacific accounts for 35% of global demand Industry projected to grow to over $7.5 billion in value by 2022 Others Growth driven by personal care industry 25% Growth from developing economies - expanding base of Soaps and middle class population in countries such as India and detergents Indonesia Personal 55% care Southeast Asia accounts for around 80% of global 10% natural fatty alcohols production Chronic overcapacity due to aggressive expansions brought onstream during 2015-16 Antioxidants 10% Source: Industry www.icis.com 13

Asia’s fatty alcohols production capacity grew by 50% during the last 5 years well ahead of demand growth Region 2013 Capacity 2016 Capacity (MT/yr) (MT/yr) Asia Pacific 2 3 Japan Global 2.6 3.6 0.05MT/yr China 0.58-0.6MT/yr India 0.16-.0.21MT/yr Overcapacity issue to persist in the near term Thailand The Possible comeback for natural alcohols vs 0.1MT/yr Philippines synthetic alcohols 0.21MT/yr Capacity losses in the alcohols market Malaysia restoring some balance 0.58-0.6MT/yr Indonesia Fatty alcohols prices continue to track palm oil 1.2MT/yr prices closely www.icis.com 14 Source: ICIS

Fatty alcohol ethoxylates (FAE) www.icis.com 15

FAE trapped in a downturn through most of 2018; prices at a 2.5 year low 1900 1800 China’s VAT down to 16% from 17% 1700 C12-14 alcohol + ethylene prices 1600 plunge 1500 1400 China’s VAT 1300 down to 13% from 16% 1200 1100 Avg 2016: $1400 Avg 2017: $1660 (up19%) Avg 2018: $1570 (down 5%) Avg Q1 2019: $1410 (down 10%) 1000 FAE EO moles 7 and 9 CIF Asia SE Drummed :USD/tonne FAE EO moles 7 and 9 CIF China Drummed : USD/tonne Source: ICIS Request for a sample report www.icis.com 16

FAE spot markets to continue to reflect developments in feedstock prices; uncertain prospects for H2 Recent decline in C12-14 alcohol prices 1500 to have lingering effects on FAE 20 2016 Avg - $1086 2017 Avg - $1191 2018 Avg - $1238 15 1400 Upstream PKO stocks high in SE Asia 10 1300 However, El Nino may kick in 2019 5 1200 0 $/tonne EO and ethylene markets currently under 1100 -5 pressure 1000 -10 900 Producers focusing on home markets on as -15 800 Q1 2019 Avg - $1035 -20 these offer better realisation 700 -25 Swing performance 600 -30 (e.g. nonylphenol ethoxylate, polyethylene glycol) % change Ethylene CFR Asia NE: USD/tonne Source: ICIS Request for a sample report www.icis.com 17

New exthoxylation investments gather pace Sasol to commission an alkoxylation facility of 150,000 tonnes/year in Nanjing, Jiangsu, China this year BASF has announced plans for a new Verbund project at Guangdong, China First plants will start around 2026, if feasible Shale gas led cracker projects spur interest in EO/ EOD projects in the US INEOS Oxide announces major plans for the US Gulf coast Request a demo of ICIS News Targeted to be operational in 2023 EO capacity around 520,000 tonnes/year; site will also house ethoxylate capacity *EOD: EO-derivative Source: ICIS www.icis.com 18

Linear alkylbenzene (LAB) www.icis.com 19