Managing a big river basin in a climate change context: the So - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Managing a big river basin in a climate change context: the São Francisco (Brazil)

Session ID 257: Assessing world river basins in a climate change context Alberto Schvartzman (AGB Peixe Vivo), Pedro Bettencourt (Nemus), Marcel Scarton (V&S Ambiental) IAIA17 (Montréal, Canada) 6 april, 2017

São Francisco River Basin - Location

Main features

• The basin encompasses areas within 7 states
• Current population: over 15 million inhabitants
• Drainage area:  639,000 km2
• Length of the Sao Francisco river:  2,850 km
• 4 physiographic units:

– High SF(40% of the total area - 63% of the population) – Medium SF(39% of the total area - 11% of the population) – Sub medium SF(17% of the total area - 12% of the population) – Low SF(5% of the total area - 11% of the population)

• Cattle raising is the fastest growing sector
• An increase of 42% in agricultural production in the period
• An increase of 35% in milk production
• The industry is connected to agricultural and extractive

production

• Iron ore mining is concentrated in the High Sao Francisco

basin, gold is mined in the Medium Sao Francisco Basin

Socioeconomics

Evolution 2005-2013:

Water balance

Surface water

STATE BOUNDARIES HYDROGRAPHIC BOUNDARIES

This figure shows the surface water balance, in the watershed,

• btained by the

ratio of the water demanded for all identified users and the water flow in the dry season

Water balance

Groundwater Groundwater Balance

Very critical Critical Of concern Comfortable Excellent

According to the balance, in most part of the watershed the groundwater balance is comfortable or excellent in terms of availability.

• Deforestation of the area to create pasture,

agro systems or development areas have resulted in loss of habitats;

• Desertification areas have emerged;
• Acute habitat fragmentation, leading to an

increase in the number of species under threat - 13% of the flora and 8% of the fauna;

• Destruction of riparian vegetation not helped

by the lack of rain leads to accelerated sedimentation resulting in low flows, navigation and traditional fishing difficulties

Environmental Degradation Issues

• Present climate trends (since mid 20th

century) has impacted water availability:

– Air temperature increased by 2ºC in the high and low Sao Francisco Basin in the period 1961-2014 – Evaporation increased – Average annual precipitation decreased slightly but there was an increase in extreme events of precipitation, thus creating an imbalance

• Climate forecasts suggest a rise in air

temperature and evapotranspiration by the mid 21st century

• Precipitation and flow forecasts are

uncertain

Climate change

Consequences of temperature rise:

• Reduction in areas for

livestock

• Migration of farmers

– Lower access to water and sanitation services – hydroelectric power plants may suffer

The Management Plan 2016-2025

aims at

• Being an important instrument
• f the basin’s water resources
• Assessing the current situation
• f the basin
• Ensuring multiple and

sustainable use of water and environment in the basin

• Connecting communities,

public sector and water users though engagement and participation Multiple use

Energy production Irrigation Water transfer Economic activities Navigation

Management Plan 2016-2025

Data collection Basin Assessment Targets, Actions and Budget Public Participation Scenarios and Forecasts Approved Action Plan

Scenarios Studied and Forecasts

Frameworks Occurences

Trend Scenario (B - Base) Baseline Scenario

(A - more favorable)

Other Scenarios (C)

Trends and patterns

Likely Future Desirable Future Other Possible Futures Predetermined Elements Uncertain Elements

• Structural Instability +

Public Policies Diagnosis

Source: Adapted from Ribeiro, Correia & Carvalho (1997) and MOPTC (2009)

Trend Scenario

• The ongoing dynamics observed in the São Francisco basin points to a

expressive increase in water consumption (even in the mid term)

• The scenario studied based on the trends in the basin up to 2012 leads to a

demand of over 585 m3/s in 2025 (72% higher when compared to the estimated figures for 2015)

• With this dynamics, if flow control measures are not implemented properly,

withdrawals could reach nearly 737 m3/s in 2035 (probably unsustainable, given the existing water availability)

SFB Withdrawal flow (m3/s) Accumulated growth 2015 2025 2035 2015-25 2025-35 2015-35 Total 339.6 585.3 737.2 72.4% 26.0% 117.1% Total demand: Trend Scenario

Total Demand 2025 Scenario

• Total demand of 585 m3/s in

2025

• 72% rise when compared to

2015 (7.2%/year)

• Increase in High SF (39%),

Medium SF (52%), Submedium SF (241%) and Low SF (30%)

Trend Scenario

• Commitment between the Union, States

and the São Francisco River Basin Committee up to 2018

• Concerns:

– Water distribution – Priority uses of water – Management of water reservoirs – Improvement of water management, knowledge, monitoring, control and regeneration

Water Pact

Implementation of the Plan 2016-2025

Axis III

Water quantity and multiple uses

Axis I

Governance and social mobilisation

Axis II

Water quality and sanitation

Axis V

Biodiversity and environmental requalification

Axis IV

Water sustainability in the Semi-arid

Axis VI

Use of soil and dam safety

Axis III

Water quantity and multiple uses 2 Targets

• Target III.1: by 2025 improve awareness of

surface and underground water availability and flows necessary to guarantee protection of the ecosystems

• Target III.2: by 2025 reduce water deficit and

situations of conflict concerning water uses

• Target IV.1: by 2025 increase three fold the

number of cisterns to supply homes, as well as farming for communities with a population of 20.000 inhabitants or less

• Target IV.2: by 2025 implement several small

projects of energy sources alternative to wood

• Target IV.3: by 2025 implement mechanisms to

deal with the climate change in the Semi-arid region Axis IV

Water sustainability in the Semi-arid 3 Targets

Exemple of the main targets 2016-2025

Implementation of the Plan 2016-2025 - Budget

O e to co

Executive Plan budget (2%) Strategic Plan budget (98%)

532.5 million Reais 30.8 billion Brazilian Reais (30.800 million Reais)

Allocation of Strategic Plan Budget:



Water supply (25.0%; 7.7 billion Reais)



Sewage and solid waste collection and urban drainage (62.7%; 19.3 billion Reais)



Recovery of deteriorated areas, riparian vegetation and water springs (8.6%; 2.6 billion Reais)



Other areas (3.7%; 1.2 million Reais)



Semi-arid region: inversions 12 to 15 billion Reais

Implementation of the Plan 2016-2025 - Budget

Thank you!

Alberto Schvartzman (AGB Peixe Vivo) Pedro Bettencourt (Nemus) Marcel Scarton (V&S Ambiental) Agência Peixe Vivo (Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil) ditec@agbpeixevivo.org.br nemus@nemus.pt marcelscarton@vesambiental.com.br agbpeixevivo@agbpeixevivo.org.br agenciapeixevivo.org.br