Case study on Climate change contribution in Chao Bai River, Hai River Basin 潮河 1990 年代与 1970 年代以前相比 Comparison of runoff change in 1970s with 1990s 气候影响 人类活动影响 Climate change Human activity 变化 / 余 DataC70 DataC90 DataC70 DataC90 额 ParaC70 ParaC70 ParaC90 ParaC90 Yearly precipitation (mm) 年平均降雨量（ mm ） 526.27 521.74 -0.86% 实测 年平均径流深 79.57 52.81 -33.63% Yearly runoff (mm) 模拟 79.51 72.88 60.02 52.81 模拟值变化量 (mm) Modeling change -6.63 -19.49 -26.70 -0.58 模拟值变化百分比 Contribution (%) -24.82 -73.01 -100 -2.17 ( 贡献率 %) 影响 减少径流 减少径流 Runoff decline Runoff decline 1989 － 2001 1973 － 1979
Recently, MOST- China, supported a National Basic Research Project (973) on Climate Change Impact to Water Cycle & Water Security in China, 2010-2014, lead by J.Xia Eastern Monsoon Area
Research Area: 8 Major Songhua River river basins that cover 95% population in China Hai River Huai River Yellow River Yangtze River Zhu River
MAJOR RESERACH Detection & Attribution of Detection & Attribution of Reduced uncertainty of future Reduced uncertainty of future non-stationary hydrological non-stationary hydrological different climate-hydrological different climate-hydrological processes for past 50-100 processes for past 50-100 scenarios (GCMS) & downscaling scenarios (GCMS) & downscaling years years Coupling Land hydrological process Coupling Land hydrological process models with Regional climate models models with Regional climate models Impact of climate change on Impact of climate change on floods control security Drought & water security related to South China ( Huai related to food security & River/Zhu River etc,.) eco-system in North China Water resources vulnerability & adaptation management
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