Local Advisory Committee Meeting #3 November 23, 2016 AGENDA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Toronto Local Advisory Committee Meeting #3

November 23, 2016

• Recap of June 1 Toronto LAC Meeting
• Review of Toronto IRRP Implementation
• IESO’s Ontario Planning Outlook
• Distributed Energy Resources
• Development of Agenda for next Toronto LAC meeting
• Public Questions

AGENDA

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TORONTO IRRP: IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE

• Plan update to be issued explaining changes

– Lakeshore West train electrification / transmission reinforcement

• Status of near-term projects
• Resilience for vulnerable load customers

IRRP Implementation Update

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OVERVIEW OF THE ONTARIO PLANNING OUTLOOK

Planning Context under Bill 135

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Bill 135, the Energy Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016 Received Royal Assent on June 9, 2016

IESO’s Ontario Planning Outlook

• The Ontario Planning Outlook is a

technical report that provides a 10-year review (2005-2015) and a 20-year outlook (2016-2035) for Ontario’s electricity system

• The report responds to a June 10, 2016,

request from the Minister of Energy to have the IESO submit a technical report on the adequacy and reliability of Ontario’s electricity resources The OPO:

• Considers a range of potential long-term

electricity demands

• Provides insights and considerations for

the operational needs associated with implementing low carbon resources, electrification and the growth of distributed energy resources

7 The report can be found on the main page of the IESO’s website @ ieso.ca

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Net Energy Demand Across Demand Outlooks

Four Outlooks

(or low demand outlook), which explores the implications of lower electricity demand (or flat demand outlook), which explores a level of long-term demand that roughly matches the level of demand that exists today (or higher demand outlooks), which explore higher levels of demand driven by different levels of electrification associated with policy choices on climate change

Conservation

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• All four outlooks reflect achievement of the 2013 LTEP conservation target and the Conservation First Framework.
• To be achieved through a combination of conservation programs and building codes and equipment standards.
• The Achievable Potential Study results identify that the existing conservation targets and planned savings are
• feasible. The LTEP process and results of the Achievable Potential Study will help inform the review of conservation

targets as part of the IESO’s mid-term review process.

Outlook for Installed Capacity

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Available Supply at the Time of Peak Demand Relative to Total Resource Requirements

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Current Technology Characteristics

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Capacity Energy Operating Reserve Load Following Frequency Regulation Capacity Factor Contribution to Winter Peak Contribution to Summer Peak LUEC ($/MWh) Conservation Yes Yes No No No Depends on Measure Depends on Measure Depends on Measure $30-50 Demand Response Yes No Yes Yes Limited N/A 60-70% 80-85% N/A Solar PV Limited Yes No Limited No 15% 3-5% 20-35% $140-290 Wind Limited Yes No Limited No 30-40% 20-30% 11% $65-210 Bioenergy Yes Yes Yes Limited No 40-80% 85-90% 85-90% $160-260 Storage Yes No Yes Yes Yes Depends on technology/ application Depends on technology/ application Depends on technology/ application Depends on technology/ application Waterpower Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 30-70% 67-75% 63-71% $120-240 Nuclear Yes Yes No Limited No 70-95% 90-95% 95-99% $120-290 Natural Gas Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes up to 65% 95% 89% $80-310

Status and Drivers of Transmission Projects

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• No significant new transmission investments would be required in an outlook of flat electricity demand served by

existing and currently planned resources

• Additional transmission or local resources to address specific regional needs may be identified in the future as

regional planning continues across the province

• The need to replace aging transmission assets over coming years will also present opportunities to right-size

investments in line with evolving circumstances

Electricity Sector GHG Emissions in Outlook B

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Total Cost of Electricity Service in Outlook B

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Conclusions

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• Because of current and past investments, Ontario is well-positioned to

meet provincial needs until the mid-2020s, while continuing to adapt to significant change across the sector.

• Implementation of the province’s climate change policies will have an

impact on the demand for electricity, including through greater electrification of the economy.

• In higher demand outlooks, additional investments in new resources

(conservation, generation and transmission) would be required to meet the increase in demand. However, opportunities for increased conservation will also vary with increases and decreases in demand.

• The total cost of electricity service over the planning outlook will be a

function of demand growth, the cost of operating the existing system and the investments required in new resources to meet potential needs.

How to Participate

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 Go to www.energy.gov.on.ca/en/ltep/ to read “Planning Ontario’s Energy Future”, a discussion guide to accompany the LTEP consultations.  Provide your feedback online through:

• EnergyTalks consultation

(talks.ontario.ca)

• the Environmental Registry

(www.ebr.gov.on.ca)  Attend one of the in-person consultation sessions:

• Kingston, Nov 24
• Windsor, Nov 28
• Kitchener, Nov 28
• London, Nov 29
• Mississauga, Nov 30

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DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES (DER): OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION

• Part One: DER Technologies

– Overview of Technologies – Program approaches in Ontario and Elsewhere

• Part Two: Committee Input and Discussion

– Opportunities for DER in Toronto – DER Benefits – DER Challenges

Distributed Energy Resources: Outline

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• Currently almost 1,500 solar PV FIT projects are

contracted in the City of Toronto (~86 MW)

– Range in size from 0.7 kW to 500 kW (0.5 MW)

• Larger penetration can shift the “peak” to evening

DER Technologies: Solar Photovoltaic

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• Highly diverse in size and location
• Output tends to coincide with

summer peaks

• Prices have steeply declined
• Can pair with storage to increase

dependability

Installed Solar PV Cost Projections (Ontario)

21 $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Ontario Installed Cost (2015-$/kW)

Residential Rooftop Solar PV (3-10 kW) Commercial Rooftop Solar PV (100 kW) Commercial Rooftop Solar PV (500 kW) Small-Scale Ground-Mounted Solar PV (500 kW) Utility-Scale Ground-Mounted Solar PV (> 5 MW)

• Current pilot and demonstration projects are

actively exploring various value streams

– Managing demand, improving power quality, integrating renewable resources, etc. – Technologies evolving (batteries, flywheel, CAES, etc.)

DER Technologies: Energy Storage

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• Very flexible in terms of modular

sizing (kWh to tens of MWh’s)

• Can be paired with solar PV to

improve capacity / dependability

• Prices high today but forecast to

decline over the next several years

• Two wind turbines in Toronto (3 kW + 750 kW)
• Potential for on-shore wind is limited in Toronto
• Significant off-shore wind potential in Lake Ontario
• No known waterpower opportunities in Toronto
• Limited biogas/biomass opportunities in Toronto

DER Technologies: Wind, Water, Biomass

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• Wind and water opportunities are extremely

limited in built up / urban areas

• Some potential biomass applications (e.g.,

wastewater treatment facilities)

• Provincial moratorium on offshore wind

development in place

• Provides security / resilience benefits

to the customer

• Large range of installation sizes /

applications

• In larger buildings a minimum level
• f emergency backup capacity is a

Building Code requirement

Mainly based on enhancing customer resilience:

• Used in commercial, industrial and multi-unit residential

settings to provide backup supply

• These resources, if used to supplement a customer’s

power needs, could reduce peak demand needs

DER Technologies: Small-scale Gas (Backup)

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CHP applications include hospitals, campuses, commercial centres, high-density residential

• Maximizing efficiency means sizing / operating

the system according to the heating load

Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

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• Generates thermal and electrical

energy using a single fuel source

• Total system efficiency can be

high, but subject to wide range

• Can be economic when sized to

meet thermal demand

• May produce electricity

whether needed or not

Heat 50% Electricity 30% 20% Fuel in 100% Losses, waste heat

• CDM resources are also part of a distributed

solution

– Demand Response

• Through incentives, technology or contractual arrangements,

customers reduce their electricity usage when the system peaks

– Energy Efficiency

• Measures such as LED lighting or other retrofits that reduce

electricity usage throughout the day (or night)

– Building Codes and Appliance Standards

• Requiring buildings to built more efficiently, or limiting the market

to more efficient appliances, etc. – Ontario Building Code, Toronto Green Building Standard, Energy Star, etc.

Conservation and Demand Management

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Toronto DER Projects In-Service (2016)

27 Type No. kW kW

Biogas 1 4,700 Diesel 13 32,100 Natural Gas 18 60,020 Photovoltaic 1498 76,817 Wind Turbine 2 753 Other 7 4,987

TOTAL 1,539 179,377

Co lu

Program No. kW kW

microFIT 949 5,977 FIT 479 69,236 Net Metering 63 1,380 RESOP 8 919 Load Displacement 25 51,943 Closed Transition 9 31,750 Other 6 18,150

TOTAL 1539 179,377

Technology Capacity Status Qty

Compressed Air 660kW/330kWh C 1 150kW/600kWh C 1 500kW/250kWh C 1 500kW/500kWh IP 1 500kW/250kWh IP 1 15kW/15kWh C 1 2,000kW/4,000kWh IP 2 4,000kW/14,400kWh IP 1 9,000kW/40,800kWh IP 1

TOTAL 10

Lithium Ion Battery

19,325kW/ 62,745kWh

Comparative Cost of Electricity Resources

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CHP SCGT

• New York City: Brooklyn-Queens Demand

Management Program (Consolidated Edison)

– Demonstration project to defer $1.2 billion in new substation investments through investments in distributed alternatives

• Energy efficiency, demand response, distributed generation, and
• ther novel approaches such as microgrid development
• Orange County, California: Preferred Resources

Pilot (Southern California Edison)

– Regional pilot to measure the impact of alternatives to building new gas-fired power plants

• Energy efficiency, demand response, renewable distributed

generation, energy storage

DER Approaches in Other Jurisdictions

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• Brant Area Local Demand Response (DR) Pilot

– The IESO and LDCs will test the use of DR to address local capacity needs – Seeking to secure up to 15 MW of DR from customers supplied by constrained transformer stations – DR capacity to be procured through an RFP

• Local DR in Toronto (Cecil TS)

– Various measures (storage, curtailment, voltage reduction, etc.) to provide 10 MW station relief – DR can be more cost effective than expanding a transformer station in the City

Demand Response (DR) Pilots in Ontario

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• IESO is working with LDCs in three regions to

support local Conservation feasibility studies

– Builds on the IESO’s 2016 Conservation Achievable Potential study – Regions include Toronto, Barrie-Innisfil, and Parry Sound-Muskoka – Will determine the potential and costs for geo- targeting Conservation efforts within specific station areas, etc. to address local area constraints – LDCs will take the lead and apply to the IESO Conservation Fund for funding support

Ontario: Targeting Conservation

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• “Virtual Power Plant” consisting of 20 residential solar +

storage systems controlled by the LDC

– A 5 kW solar array, 6.8 kW inverter, and 11 kWh lithium-ion battery are installed behind-the-meter at each home

• Customers make an upfront contribution and pay a

monthly service fee for a five-year term

• Studying the feasibility of DER as an

alternative to the traditional wires solution for delivering electricity to customers

– Supported by the IESO’s Conservation Fund and the LDC

Ontario: PowerStream’s POWER.HOUSE Pilot

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PART TWO: LAC DISCUSSION

• In periods of adequate supply resources system-

wide, DER opportunities can be driven by:

– Economic business case for the customer (energy/demand costs, security/resilience) – Local capacity constraints – Local grid benefits such as reliability/resilience – Meeting policy goals/targets for GHG reductions, etc.

Context: Identifying DER Opportunities

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• The load duration curve for specific areas can

help determine which DER are appropriate

Context: Identifying DER Opportunities

35 35 Annual Hours 8760 8760

• Are there additional local initiatives that LAC members

would like to share?

• What benefits can be attributed to these initiatives?

– Distribution of benefits between customer, system, LDC – How to quantify and account for the customer benefit? Can the benefits justify the cost? – How much are customers willing to pay for improved reliability

• r resilience?
• How can an integrated electricity plan serve to help
• vercome challenges to greater DER adoption?

– Economics, customer awareness, community acceptance around noise, emissions, visual impacts

Questions for LAC Discussion

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PLANNING FOR FUTURE TORONTO LAC MEETINGS

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PUBLIC QUESTIONS