LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT Dr. G Garland La - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT Dr. G Garland La - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 09, 2023 219 likes •429 views

LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT Dr. G Garland La Laliberte Bipol ole III Co Coalition Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before DSM, projected from 20-year historic data, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000

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SLIDE 1

LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT

  • Dr. G

Garland La Laliberte Bipol

  • le III Co

Coalition

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SLIDE 2

17000 19000 21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before DSM, projected from 20-year historic data, GWh

Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 3

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before DSM, projected from 20-year historic data, MW

3200 3600 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 4

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before DSM, projected from 10-year historic data, GWh

21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 5

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before DSM, projected from 10-year historic data, MW

3200 3600 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 6

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM

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SLIDE 7

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM

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SLIDE 8

Tw Twenty-year ar F Financi cial al I Impac acts

  • n
  • n Dom
  • mesti

tic R c Revenue Ove ver-for

  • recas

asting $2. $2.3B Effici ciency M y Man anitob

  • ba D

DSM SM $5. $5.1B Tot

  • tal

al $7. $7.4B

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SLIDE 9

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW

3200 3600 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM

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SLIDE 10
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SLIDE 11

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before DSM, GWh

21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 Historic MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 12

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before DSM, MW

3200 3600 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400 Historic MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 13

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW

3200 3600 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 14

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 15

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 Historic Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after EM DSM Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 16

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after EM DSM Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 17

Weather-Adjusted Historical and Forecast Gross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW

3200 3600 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic)

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SLIDE 18

Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh

21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 MH13 Forecast (NFAT) Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic) MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM

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SLIDE 19

Recommendation No. 1 The Public Utilities Board should direct Manitoba Hydro to revise its electric load forecast downward to more adequately reflect recent historic experience, price elasticity impacts and insights into factors driving load forecasts in other North American jurisdictions for consideration in its current General Rate Application.

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Recommendation No. 2 The Public Utilities Board should direct Manitoba Hydro to conduct its own analysis of the impact on Manitoba Hydro’s balance sheet

  • f the Government’s legislated plan for Demand

Side Management of electric energy and to report its findings to the Public Utilities Board as part of its next General Rate Application.