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LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT Dr. G Garland La Laliberte Bipol ole III Co Coalition Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before DSM, projected from 20-year historic data, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000

  1. LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT Dr. G Garland La Laliberte Bipol ole III Co Coalition

  2. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before DSM, projected from 20-year historic data, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 23000 21000 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic) 19000 17000

  3. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before DSM, projected from 20-year historic data, MW 6400 6000 5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

  4. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before DSM, projected from 10-year historic data, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 23000 21000 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

  5. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before DSM, projected from 10-year historic data, MW 6400 6000 5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

  6. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 23000 21000 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM

  7. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 23000 21000 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM

  8. Tw Twenty-year ar F Financi cial al I Impac acts on on Dom omesti tic R c Revenue Ove ver-for orecas asting $2. $2.3B Effici ciency M y Man anitob oba D DSM SM $5. $5.1B Tot otal al $7. $7.4B

  9. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW 6400 6000 5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM

  11. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before DSM, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 23000 21000 Historic MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

  12. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before DSM, MW 6400 6000 5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 Historic MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)

  13. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW 6400 6000 5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic)

  14. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 23000 Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM Linear (Historic) 21000

  15. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 23000 Historic Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after EM DSM Linear (Historic) 21000

  16. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast 23000 MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after EM DSM Linear (Historic) 21000

  17. Weather-Adjusted Historical and Forecast Gross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW 6400 6000 5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic)

  18. Weather-Adjusted Historic and Forecast Gross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 MH13 Forecast (NFAT) Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast 23000 MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic) MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM 21000

  19. Recommendation No. 1 The Public Utilities Board should direct Manitoba Hydro to revise its electric load forecast downward to more adequately reflect recent historic experience, price elasticity impacts and insights into factors driving load forecasts in other North American jurisdictions for consideration in its current General Rate Application.

  20. Recommendation No. 2 The Public Utilities Board should direct Manitoba Hydro to conduct its own analysis of the impact on Manitoba Hydro’s balance sheet of the Government’s legislated plan for Demand Side Management of electric energy and to report its findings to the Public Utilities Board as part of its next General Rate Application.

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