Challenges in Demand Forecasting Raj Protim Kundu ERLDC, POSOCO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Raj Protim Kundu ERLDC, POSOCO

Challenges in Demand Forecasting

• IEGC mandates it
• “5.3 (C) Each SLDC shall develop methodologies/mechanisms

for daily/ weekly/monthly/yearly demand estimation (MW, MVAr and MWh) for operational purposes. Based on this demand estimate and the estimated availability from different sources, SLDC shall plan demand management measures like load shedding, power cuts, etc….”

• For better planning
• Electricity can not be stored in large quantum in economical

way.

• If area wise demand can be forecasted well in advance,

uninterrupted, reliable power can be delivered

• Increase in renewable energy will increase more uncertainties

in supply side also

Need for forecasting

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Types of load forecasting

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Accuracy and usages of different types of load forecasting

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Eastern Region Demand Variations for 2017-18

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Input data sources for STLF

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STLF

Historical Load & weather data

Real time data base Weather Forecast

Information display

Measured load

EMS

Load Forecasting Model Development

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• Selection of proper forecasting models
• What influencing factors to be considered.
• Operational experiences are important
• Quality of input data
• Unconstraint demand data are required
• Selection of forecasted area
• Demand of large control area dependent on large no of parameter
• Demand of small control area dependent on connectivity with rest of the

grid

• Sudden contingencies
• Loss of important generating units or transmission/distribution elements
• Sudden weather changes
• Storm, Heat waves, Cold waves, Humidity changes, Fog

Challenges in forecasting

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Load crash due to Titli on October 11, 2018 (Thursday)

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DATE :11 Oct 2018

Thursday

Time DMD

Actual Demand

18:51 19478

10-10-18

6:34 15324

11-10-18

Reg.Max (MW) Reg.Min (MW)

10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Hours of the Day

EASTERN REGIONAL DEMAND

Dema mand (MW)

W) ---

• -->

Around 2500-3000 MW reduction in regional demand was observed in the early morning hours on 11-10-2018.

Load crash due to Titli on October 11, 2018 (Thursday)

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Around 1000 MW demand reduction was observed for the first few hours on 11-10- 2018

Resources for thoughts

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• U. K. Verma, S Banerjee, R P Kundu, Comparison of different forecasting models

used for short term load forecasting, CBIP water and energy international journal May 2016

• V. K. Srivastava, S Mishra, V Pandey, S S Raghuwansi and A Ahmed, Load and RE

Forecasting- Utilization and Impact on System Operation, CIGRE – AORC Technical Meeting 2018

• POSOCO, Report on Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System, 2016
• E A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, Load Forecasting, Applied Mathematics for

Restructured Electric Power Systems: Optimization, Control, and Computational Intelligence, pp. 269-285, Spinger, 2005.

• A. Meyler, G. KENNY, T. QUINN, Forecasting Irish Inflation using ARIMA Models,

Research and Publications Department, Central Bank of Ireland, , Vol. 3/RT/98, December, 1998.

• R. J. Hyndman and Y. Khandakar, Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast

Package for R, Journal of Statistical Software, Volume 27, Issue 3, July 2008.

Conclusion

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Thank You !!

rajprotim@posoco.in 9903329591

“The more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed in war.” - Norman Schwarzkopf