17 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION ON 17 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG 17) ON LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG 17) LNG TRADE DE FLOWS OWS <Title of Presentation> Hans Stinis is <Title of Presentation> Shell Integrated Gas Strategy & Portfolio Manager By: <Author Name>, <Organization> By: <Author Name>, <Organization> <Date> <Date> April 2013
DEFINITIONS FINITIONS AND D CAUTIO TIONARY NARY NOT OTE Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this announcement includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as Secu rities and Exchange Commission of the United States (“SEC”) proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum En gineers 2P and 2C definitions. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentatio n “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Companies over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to “joint ventures” and companies over which Shell has si gnificant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. In this presentation, joint ventures and associates may also be referred to as “equity -accounted in vestments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actu al results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that coul d affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20 -F for the year ended December 31, 2012 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 17 April 2013. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
LNG DEMAND AND SUPPLY L NG DE MAND L NG SUPPL Y* Mtpa Mboe/ d Mtpa Mboe/ d Japan/ Korea/ Taiwan SE Asia Asia ME & East Africa Europe China Qatar Americas West coast India Other West Africa Americas East coast Australia Arctic * Risked view of all LNG supply projects Impact of limited supplies (existing supplier issues, deferred projects) Results in 2012 supply to be lower than 2011 Source : Shell analysis
GROWTH: GLOBAL LNG DEMAND GROWING AT 5% P.A. mtpa 750 500 500 Wes t of Suez 30% 400 E as t of 250 Suez 70% 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Strong LNG demand growth to 500 mtpa by 2025, particularly in upcoming LNG markets East of Suez Source : Shell analysis
LNG MARKET DEVELOPMENTS L NG IMPORT COUNTRIE S 1990 2010 2020 mtpa No. of countries Importing Countries Exporting Countries Volumes sold FID Shell On stream Source : PFC Energy and Shell Analysis
CHINA: GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND CHINA GAS DE MAND GAS SUPPL Y MIX Bcf/ d Bcf/ d Imports ~30% Domestic ~70% R esidential & Commercial Transport Others L NG P ipeline Domestic Gas Industrial P ower Demand outlook requires both domestic and import gas growth Source : Shell analysis
MARKET DYNAMICS Balanced Severe R ebalancing. Legend tightening. Timing uncertain. Scenario 1 with a further one 0 year delay across all projects Scenario where projects are 1 delayed but not significantly 0 1 0 Balance equals Supply less Base demand. Excludes spot demand and incremental demand from flexible markets Short 2012 2014 2016 2018 Before we get to a balanced market, we face an extended tight market period Source : Shell analysis
Europe: CONTINUES TO BALANCE GLOBAL LNG MARKET Euro rope regas capa pacit ity (mt) 2010 to 2017 Euro rope LNG quarte rterly rly import rts (mt) 2009 to 2017 mt mt 25 200 2011 peak import level Under construction 4 mt reduction quarter Existing 20 on quarter vs. fundamental demand ? 150 15 10 100 L owest level of imports historically ~ 11 mt since 2009 5 Actual imports 0 50 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source : Shell Analysis Source: PFC Energy
North American Exports INDUSTRY L NG E XPORT PL ANS NORTH AME RICAN L NG E XPORT DE VE L OPME NT Kenai L NG mtpa Bcf/ d Valdez T otal NA application Canada L NG USA GoM + E as t Sanctioned projects Coas t potential Kitimat 2025: ~130mtpa BC L NG Canada + US Wes t Coas t potential 2025: Jordan Cove Sabine P ass ~30 mtpa Oregon L ake Charles Cove P oint Cameron F reeport Gulf L NG Corpus Christi P ort Arthur Gulf Coast Elba Island L avaca Bay L NG P roduction NG export facility – application filed L Sanctioned Major opportunity for the American gas industry Source : Poten & Partners and Shell Analysis
POTENTIAL: LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY Shtokman Yamal Multiple Canadian and West Coast Ruydonm Sakhalin III projects Valdivostok Multiple GOM and East Coast projects West Africa ASIA Nigeria LNG T7 Tangguh Expansion East Africa Brass LNG Abadi Tanzania LNG Olokola LNG Sunrise Mozambique LNG Angola Expansion Equatorial Guinea Expansion West Coast East Coast Browse CBM to LNG projects Gorgon Expansion Industry players together pursue ~250 to ~400 mtpa of new, non FID supply projects Projects ranging from possible to highly speculative Source : GIIGNL, Poten and Partners
Recommend
More recommend
