Leonard Kleinrock Leonard Kleinrock Chairman, Nomadix Inc Chairman, Nomadix Inc Professor, Computer Science, UCLA Professor, Computer Science, UCLA MobiHOC MobiHOC Boston, MA Boston, MA August 11, 20000 August 11, 20000
The The Web as Web as Most Most People People See It! See It! Leonard Kleinrock 2000
“A user does not “A user does not understand what is understand what is happening behind happening behind the computer the computer screen….” screen….” “…The future is in “…The future is in the art of making it art of making it the disappear” ” disappear George Vrandenburg Vrandenburg III, III, George SVP AOL SVP AOL September, 1999 September, 1999 Leonard Kleinrock 2000
The Culture of the Web The Culture of the Web • My early design philosophy: My early design philosophy: • • Every router shares in controlling the network • Every router shares in controlling the network • ARPA’s ARPA’s philosophy: philosophy: • • Give good researchers freedom and funding • Give good researchers freedom and funding • Research leaders passed this philosophy on: Research leaders passed this philosophy on: • • Give graduate students freedom and funding Give graduate students freedom and funding • • Graduate students passed this philosophy on: Graduate students passed this philosophy on: • • Share ideas among yourselves and all other users • Share ideas among yourselves and all other users • Millions of Internet users now contribute their Millions of Internet users now contribute their • ideas and creativity to make the Internet the ideas and creativity to make the Internet the major force it is today. major force it is today. • Open, shared, no one controls it, no one can Open, shared, no one controls it, no one can • shut it off, communities of interest shut it off, communities of interest Leonard Kleinrock 2000
How Big is the Web? How Big is the Web? • 1 billion web pages 1 billion web pages • • 300 million users worldwide 300 million users worldwide • • 2/3 of Americans (over 12) used Internet in past year • 2/3 of Americans (over 12) used Internet in past year • 1/3 of Americans (over 12) go online daily • 1/3 of Americans (over 12) go online daily • Years to reach 50 million people: Years to reach 50 million people: • • Radio Radio 38 • 38 • TV • TV 13 13 • Cable • Cable 10 10 • Internet (commercial) • Internet (commercial) 5 5 Leonard Kleinrock 2000
The Structure of the Web The Structure of the Web Strongly Connected Average distance between web pages is 16 If links were not directional, the distance is 7 That is, 7 degrees of “separation” Leonard Kleinrock 2000
But … Is This Really But … Is This Really The Structure of the Web The Structure of the Web ? ? Strongly “Newbies” “Introverts” In Connected Out Core 21% 21% 28% Leonard Kleinrock 2000
The Bow Tie Structure of the Web The Bow Tie Structure of the Web Tendrils 21% Strongly In Connected Out Core 21% 21% 28% Tubes Disconnected components 8% Leonard Kleinrock 2000
The Evolution of the Internet The Evolution of the Internet Period Technology Access User Community The Early Period The Early Period Principles of Data A wasteland A handful of pioneers Principles of Data A wasteland A handful of pioneers 1959- 1959 -1969 1969 Networking Networking The Birth Period The Birth Period Packet Switching Packet Switching Weak access via Weak access via Computer Scientists Computer Scientists 1969- -1972 1972 1969 at 50 Kbps the NCP Protocol at 50 Kbps the NCP Protocol The Middle Years The Middle Years Public networks Public networks Internetworking Internetworking Email dominates Email dominates 1972- -1980 1980 1972 struggle to survive problems apparent user applications struggle to survive problems apparent user applications Internetworking Internetworking Mbps networks Mbps networks TCP/IP widely TCP/IP widely Science community Science community (WAN & LAN): deployed plus a handful of 1980- -1990 1990 (WAN & LAN): deployed plus a handful of 1980 last mile inadequate commercial users last mile inadequate commercial users Gbps networks networks Nomadicity adds Commercial and Gbps Nomadicity adds Commercial and Explosion Explosion (WAN & LAN) (WAN & LAN) tremendous tremendous consumer user consumer user 1990- 1990 -2000 2000 complexity to population complexity to population access access Pbps Pbps networks. networks. Nomadicity Nomadicity Nomads and Nomads and Future Future Wireless pervasive deployed Smart Devices Wireless pervasive deployed Smart Devices 2000- 2000 - Last mile deployed Last mile deployed Leonard Kleinrock 2000 (always on) (always on)
The Vision Has Three The Vision Has Three Phases Phases 1. Advanced Network Technology Advanced Network Technology 1. Gigabit/sec and Petabit Petabit/sec networks /sec networks Gigabit/sec and Wireless everywhere Wireless everywhere Broadband access networks Broadband access networks 2. Nomadic Computing Nomadic Computing 2. Travelling from your office to another from your office to another Travelling location and still having access to your full location and still having access to your full set of Internet resources set of Internet resources 3. Smart Spaces Smart Spaces 3. Moving the Internet into your physical Moving the Internet into your physical world world Leonard Kleinrock 2000
Phase 1: Phase 1: Advanced Network Technology Advanced Network Technology • Gigabits, Gigabits, Petabits Petabits & Latency & Latency • • Wireless Access Wireless Access • • Broadband access networks Broadband access networks • Leonard Kleinrock 2000
Just how fast is a gigabit? Just how fast is a gigabit? Fast! Fast! • But ... But ... the speed • the speed of light isn’t! of light isn’t! Leonard Kleinrock 2000
from Kilobits from Kilobits to Megabits to Megabits to Gigabits! Gigabits! to Bump ? Evolution, Revolution or Bump ? Evolution, Revolution or Leonard Kleinrock 2000 Leonard Kleinrock 2000
One One 40 Megabit Megabit File File 1 C C 1.5 Megabit/sec Leonard Kleinrock 2000
We seem to We seem to One One have have Megabit Megabit bumped into bumped into the speed of the speed of File File light! light! or or C 1 Gigabit/sec Something’s Something’s going going “bump” “bump” in the light! in the light! Leonard Kleinrock 2000
Streaming Streaming Data Data 20 Million Bits in the pipe! C C 1 Gigabit/sec Leonard Kleinrock 2000
Just How Fast is a Just How Fast is a Petabit/sec? /sec? Petabit • Darned fast ! Darned fast ! • At that speed you can At that speed you can transmit the 20 trillion bytes transmit the 20 trillion bytes in the Library of Congress in in the Library of Congress in 1/6 of a sec ! 1/6 of a sec ! Leonard Kleinrock 2000
Phase 1: Phase 1: Advanced Network Technology Advanced Network Technology • Gigabits, Gigabits, Petabits Petabits & Latency & Latency • • Wireless Access Wireless Access • • Broadband access networks Broadband access networks • Leonard Kleinrock 2000
A Brief History of Radio A Brief History of Radio • Guglielmo Marconi Guglielmo Marconi : 1901 : 1901 • Newfoundland UK Leonard Kleinrock 2000
A Brief History of Pkt Pkt Radio Radio A Brief History of • 1970’s: ARPA 250 cu in 250 cu in 25 watts 25 watts 25 lbs 25 lbs Leonard Kleinrock 2000 Leonard Kleinrock 2000
A Brief History of Pkt Pkt Radio Radio A Brief History of • 1970’s >> 1990’s: ARPA 250 >>10 cu in 250 >>10 cu in 25 >> 1 watt 25 >> 1 watt 25 >> 1 lb 25 >> 1 lb Leonard Kleinrock 2000 Leonard Kleinrock 2000
A Brief History of Radio A Brief History of Radio • 1970’s >> 1990’s: ARPA • >> MobiHOC MobiHOC: 2000 : 2000 • >> IP Data With Base Stations = 3G IP Data Without Base Stations = Ad Hoc Multihop Leonard Kleinrock 2000 Leonard Kleinrock 2000
The Papers at Mobicom Mobicom had 573 had 573 The Papers at Reference Listings Reference Listings Distribution of the 573 References Distribution of the 219 References 100.0% 100.0% 90.0% 90.0% 80.0% 80.0% 70.0% 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1990's 1980's 1970's earlier 1990's 1980's 1970's earlier Leonard Kleinrock 2000
l l i The Papers at Mobicom Mobicom had 573 i had 573 The Papers at v v e e d d e e Reference Listings e Reference Listings e h h h h t t t t l l l t l t a a a a Distribution of the 573 References Distribution of the 219 References h ? o h ? o W t W t s s d d ’ ’ 0 0 e 100.0% 100.0% e 7 7 n n 9 90.0% 90.0% 9 e e 1 1 p p 80.0% 80.0% p e p e 70.0% 70.0% h a h a h t h t 60.0% 60.0% n n i 50.0% 50.0% i k k 40.0% 40.0% r r o o 30.0% 30.0% w w 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1990's 1980's 1970's earlier 1990's 1980's 1970's earlier Leonard Kleinrock 2000
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