The Arpanet Beginning The Arpanet Beginning • 1967 1967 ARPA gathers the “ “gang gang” ” • ARPA gathers the • 1968 1968 Roberts publishes ARPANET plan • Roberts publishes ARPANET plan • 1968 1968 RFP for a network goes out • RFP for a network goes out • 1968 1968 BBN wins the contract under Frank Heart’ ’s s • BBN wins the contract under Frank Heart leadership & Bob Kahn’ ’s system design s system design leadership & Bob Kahn • 1968 1968 Kleinrock’ ’s s lab at UCLA selected to be the lab at UCLA selected to be the • Kleinrock first node and serve as Network and serve as Network first node Measurement Center Measurement Center • 1969 1969 (Jan- -Aug) BBN & UCLA are Busy! Aug) BBN & UCLA are Busy! • (Jan • 1969 1969 UCLA puts out Press Release • UCLA puts out Press Release • 1969 1969 8/29 BBN sends first switch (IMP) to UCLA • 8/29 BBN sends first switch (IMP) to UCLA UCLA UCLA • 1969 1969 9/2 First data moves from • 9/2 First data moves from IMP IMP UCLA Host to UCLA switch UCLA Host to UCLA switch Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The 1969 IMP The 1969 IMP Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The 1969 IMP The 1969 IMP Leonard Kleinrock 2007
We Decided to Keep a Log We Decided to Keep a Log Leonard Kleinrock 2007
An Important Entry An Important Entry SRI SRI in Our IMP Log in Our IMP Log UCLA UCLA First Message on the Internet - ever! Leonard Kleinrock 2007 Leonard Kleinrock 2006
But What WAS the First Message But What WAS the First Message Ever Sent on the Internet? Ever Sent on the Internet? • Was it Was it “ “What hath God Wrought What hath God Wrought” ” (Morse 1844) ? • (Morse 1844) ? • Or Or “ “Watson, come here. I want you. Watson, come here. I want you.” ” (Bell 1876) ? • (Bell 1876) ? • Or Or “ “One Giant Leap for Mankind One Giant Leap for Mankind” ” (Armstrong 1969) ? • (Armstrong 1969) ? • It was simply a It was simply a LOG LOGIN from the UCLA computer IN from the UCLA computer • to the SRI computer. to the SRI computer. SRI SRI UCLA UCLA • We sent an We sent an “ “L L” ” - - did you get the did you get the “ “L L” ”? ? YEP! • YEP! YEP! • We sent an We sent an “ “O O” ” - - did you get the did you get the “ “O O” ”? ? YEP! • • We sent a We sent a “ “G G” ” - - did you get the did you get the “ “G G” ”? ? • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
But What WAS the First Message But What WAS the First Message Ever Sent on the Internet? Ever Sent on the Internet? • Was it Was it “ “What hath God Wrought What hath God Wrought” ” (Morse 1844) ? • (Morse 1844) ? • Or Or “ “Watson, come here. I want you. Watson, come here. I want you.” ” (Bell 1876) ? • (Bell 1876) ? • Or Or “ “One Giant Leap for Mankind One Giant Leap for Mankind” ” (Armstrong 1969) ? • (Armstrong 1969) ? • It was simply a It was simply a LOG LOGIN from the UCLA computer IN from the UCLA computer • to the SRI computer. to the SRI computer. • We sent an We sent an “ “L L” ” - - did you get the did you get the “ “L L” ”? ? YEP! • YEP! YEP! • We sent an We sent an “ “O O” ” - - did you get the did you get the “ “O O” ”? ? YEP! • • We sent a We sent a “ “G G” ” - - did you get the did you get the “ “G G” ”? ? • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
But What WAS the First Message But What WAS the First Message Ever Sent on the Internet? Ever Sent on the Internet? • Was it Was it “ “What hath God Wrought What hath God Wrought” ” (Morse 1844) ? • (Morse 1844) ? • Or Or “ “Watson, come here. I want you. Watson, come here. I want you.” ” (Bell 1876) ? • (Bell 1876) ? • Or Or “ “One Giant Leap for Mankind One Giant Leap for Mankind” ” (Armstrong 1969) ? • (Armstrong 1969) ? • It was simply a It was simply a LOG LOGIN from the UCLA computer IN from the UCLA computer • to the SRI computer. to the SRI computer. • We sent an We sent an “ “L L” ” - - did you get the did you get the “ “L L” ”? ? YEP! • YEP! YEP! • We sent an We sent an “ “O O” ” - - did you get the did you get the “ “O O” ”? ? YEP! • • We sent a We sent a “ “G G” ” - - did you get the did you get the “ “G G” ”? ? • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Growth of the Internet Growth of the Internet • 1969 1969 10/29 First Internet message • 10/29 First Internet message • 1969 1969 Howie Frank assists topology design Frank assists topology design • Howie • 1969 1969 UCLA’ ’s Steve Crocker RFC #1 s Steve Crocker RFC #1 • UCLA Host- -Host Protocol and the NWG Host Protocol and the NWG Host • 1970 1970 ARPANET spans US: UCLA <- -> BBN > BBN • ARPANET spans US: UCLA < • 1970 1970 UCLA team releases NCP • UCLA team releases NCP • 1971 1971 BBN TIP - - direct terminal access direct terminal access • BBN TIP • 1972 1972 Ray Tomlinson introduces net email • Ray Tomlinson introduces net email • 1972 1972 First public demo of ARPANET • First public demo of ARPANET Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Enter the Wireless Networks Enter the Wireless Networks • 1972 1972 Norm Abramson’ ’s packet radio s packet radio • Norm Abramson Alohanet connected to ARPANET connected to ARPANET Alohanet • 1973 ARPA deploys SATNET 1973 ARPA deploys SATNET • -- 1st international connection 1st international connection -- • 1973 1973 First analysis of slotted • First analysis of slotted Aloha: performance, stability Aloha: performance, stability S = Ge -G Kleinrock, L. and S. Lam, "Packet Switching in a Slotted Satellite Channel", AFIPS Conference Proceedings , Vol. 42, National Computer Conference, New York, June 1973, AFIPS Press, Leonard Kleinrock 2007 Montvale, New Jersey, pp. 703-710, 1973
Enter the Wireless Networks Enter the Wireless Networks • 1972 1972 Norm Abramson’ ’s packet radio s packet radio • Norm Abramson Alohanet connected to ARPANET connected to ARPANET Alohanet • 1973 1973 ARPA deploys SATNET • ARPA deploys SATNET – 1st international connection 1st international connection – • 1973 1973 First analysis of slotted • First analysis of slotted Aloha: performance, stability Aloha: performance, stability • 1974 1974 First analysis of CSMA • First analysis of CSMA Ge -aG Kleinrock, L. and F. Tobagi, "Carrier Sense Multiple S = Access for Packet Switched Radio Channels", G(1+2a) + e -aG Conference Record, International Conference on Communications , Minneapolis, Minnesota, pp. 21B-1 to 21B-7, June 1974. Leonard Kleinrock 2007
3. A Brief History of Wireless Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Who Made These Predictions? Who Made These Predictions? • “It will be possible for a business man in New York to It will be possible for a business man in New York to • “ dictate instructions, and have them instantly appear in dictate instructions, and have them instantly appear in type at his office in London or elsewhere. type at his office in London or elsewhere. • • “He will be able to call up, from his desk, and talk to any “ He will be able to call up, from his desk, and talk to any telephone subscriber on the globe. telephone subscriber on the globe. • “An inexpensive instrument, not bigger than a watch, An inexpensive instrument, not bigger than a watch, • “ will enable its bearer to: will enable its bearer to: Nikola Tesla Tesla Nikola hear anywhere, hear anywhere, • • on sea or land, on sea or land, • • In 1908 In 1908 music or song, music or song, • • the speech of a political leader, the speech of a political leader, • • the address of an eminent man of science, the address of an eminent man of science, • • or the sermon of an eloquent clergyman, or the sermon of an eloquent clergyman, • • • delivered in some other place, however distant. • delivered in some other place, however distant. • “In the same manner any picture, character, drawing, or In the same manner any picture, character, drawing, or • “ print can be transferred from one to another place. print can be transferred from one to another place. • “The wireless art offers greater possibilities than any The wireless art offers greater possibilities than any • “ invention or discovery heretofore made, and … … we can we can invention or discovery heretofore made, and expect with certitude that in the next few years wonders expect with certitude that in the next few years wonders will be wrought by its application." will be wrought by its application." Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Giants of Wireless The Giants of Wireless “Mathematicians Mathematicians … … “ Communication Communication will even be doubtful will even be doubtful whether the ideas as whether the ideas as • James Clerk Maxwell James Clerk Maxwell • expressed in expressed in symbols had ever symbols had ever quite found their way quite found their way out of the equations out of the equations into their minds.” into their minds. ” • Heinrich Hertz Heinrich Hertz • "I do not think that the wireless "I do not think that the wireless waves I have discovered will waves I have discovered will have any practical application." have any practical application." “Today Today’ ’s scientists have substituted s scientists have substituted “ • Nikola Nikola Tesla Tesla • mathematics for experiments, and they mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality.” ” no relation to reality. • Guglielmo Guglielmo Marconi Marconi • “Have I done the world good, Have I done the world good, “ or have I added a menace?” ” or have I added a menace? Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Radio Timeline Radio Timeline • 1864: Maxwell mathematically predicts the 1864: Maxwell mathematically predicts the • existence of radio waves. existence of radio waves. • 1878: David E. Hughes sends/receives Morse 1878: David E. Hughes sends/receives Morse • Code, discovering radio waves. Code, discovering radio waves. • 1885/6: Hertz proves existence of radio waves 1885/6: Hertz proves existence of radio waves • using a primitive transmitter and receiver. using a primitive transmitter and receiver. • 1891: Tesla is granted U.S. Patent revealing the 1891: Tesla is granted U.S. Patent revealing the • basic techniques for greatly improving basic techniques for greatly improving radio transmitter performance. radio transmitter performance. • 1893: Tesla demonstrates "wireless telegraphy" 1893: Tesla demonstrates "wireless telegraphy" • • 1894: Alexander 1894: Alexander Popov Popov builds his first radio builds his first radio • receiver in Russia, the first non- - receiver in Russia, the first non laboratory radio service. laboratory radio service. • 1894: Oliver Lodge transmits radio 1894: Oliver Lodge transmits radio • signals at Oxford University signals at Oxford University – One year after Tesla One year after Tesla – – One year before Marconi One year before Marconi – Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Radio Timeline Radio Timeline • 1895: Marconi transmits wireless signals a 1895: Marconi transmits wireless signals a • distance of about 1 mile distance of about 1 mile • 1896: Tesla transmits wireless signals over 1896: Tesla transmits wireless signals over • distances of up to 30 miles. distances of up to 30 miles. • 1897: Marconi is granted a British patent, 1897: Marconi is granted a British patent, • establishes the world's first radio station establishes the world's first radio station and what later becomes the Marconi and what later becomes the Marconi Wireless Telegraph Company Wireless Telegraph Company • 1898: 1898: Popov Popov effects ship effects ship- -to to- -shore shore • communication over a distance of 6 miles communication over a distance of 6 miles • 1901: Marconi receives the first trans 1901: Marconi receives the first trans- -Atlantic Atlantic • radio signal. radio signal. • 1906: Lee de Forest invents the 1906: Lee de Forest invents the Audion Audion, now , now • known as the vacuum- -tube triode. tube triode. known as the vacuum • 1909: Marconi wins the Nobel Prize in physics 1909: Marconi wins the Nobel Prize in physics • • 1933: Edwin Armstrong patents FM 1933: Edwin Armstrong patents FM • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Radio Radio Newfoundland Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Radio Radio Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Packet Radio Packet Radio • 1970’s: ARPA 250 cu in 250 cu in 25 watts 25 watts 25 lbs 25 lbs Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Packet Radio Packet Radio • 1970’s >> 1990’s: ARPA 250 >>10 cu in 250 >>10 cu in 25 >> 1 watt 25 >> 1 watt 25 >> 1 lb 25 >> 1 lb Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Packet Radio Packet Radio • 1970’s >> 1990’s: ARPA 3G PCS GPRS EVDO TD- -SCDMA SCDMA TD 250 >>10 cu in 250 >>10 cu in 3GPP 3GPP 3GPP2 3GPP2 25 >> 1 watt 25 >> 1 watt HSDPA HSDPA WiFi 25 >> 1 lb 25 >> 1 lb WiMax Mesh nets Sensor nets IP Services Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Giant Stepping Giant Stepping in Packet Radio in Packet Radio • Multihop • Multihop • Each hop covers distance R (Tx Tx Radius) Radius) • Each hop covers distance R ( • Total distance to cover is D (D>>R) • Total distance to cover is D (D>>R) • Delay per hop = T(R) • Delay per hop = T(R) • Big R, more interference, fewer hops • Big R, more interference, fewer hops • Small R, less interference, more hops • Small R, less interference, more hops • Total Delay = T(R) [ D/R D/R ] • Total Delay = T(R) * to minimize total delay • Choose R=R * to minimize total delay • Choose R=R • dT(R)/dR = T(R)/R optimality condition = T(R)/R optimality condition • dT(R)/dR Reference: Kleinrock, L. "On Giant Stepping in Packet Radio Networks," UCLA, Packet Radio Temporary Note #5, PRT 136 , March 1975. Leonard Kleinrock 2007
dT(R)/dR = T/R = T/R dT(R)/dR T(R) T(R) Optimum Radius * R R R R Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Growth of the Internet Growth of the Internet • 1973 1973 ARPA deploys SATNET • ARPA deploys SATNET – 1st international connection 1st international connection – • 1973 1973 Cerf and Kahn design TCP • Cerf and Kahn design TCP • 1973 1973 Bob Metcalfe develops Ethernet idea • Bob Metcalfe develops Ethernet idea • 1975 1975 ARPANET mgt transfers to DCA • ARPANET mgt transfers to DCA • 1978 1978 TCP splits into TCP and IP driven by • TCP splits into TCP and IP driven by Danny Cohen (since 1973) , David Reed Danny Cohen (since 1973) , David Reed and John Schoch Schoch to support real to support real- -time time and John traffic. This allows the creation of UDP. traffic • 1980 1980 CSNET funded by NSF in response to a • CSNET funded by NSF in response to a proposal by Larry Landweber Landweber, Dave , Dave proposal by Larry Farber, Tony Hearn and Peter Denning Farber, Tony Hearn and Peter Denning • 1981 1981 IBM introduces their first PC • IBM introduces their first PC Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Growth of the Internet Growth of the Internet • 1983 1983 ARPANET standardizes on TCP/IP • ARPANET standardizes on TCP/IP • 1983 1983 DCA splits MILNET from ARPANET • DCA splits MILNET from ARPANET • 1984 1984 DNS introduced: • DNS introduced: Paul Mockapetris Mockapetris and Jon and Jon Postel Postel Paul • 1986 1986 NSFNET at 56 Kbps for supercomputers; • NSFNET at 56 Kbps for supercomputers; Dave Mills writes the initial software. Steve Dave Mills writes the initial software. Steve Wolff in charge. Wolff in charge. • 1988 1988 NSFNET upgraded to T- -1 backbone 1 backbone • NSFNET upgraded to T st Internet worm • 1988 1988 Robert Morris unleashes 1 st Internet worm • Robert Morris unleashes 1 th anniversary • 1989 1989 UCLA celebrates 20 th anniversary • UCLA celebrates 20 • 1990 1990 ARPANET replaced by NSFNET • ARPANET replaced by NSFNET • 1991 1991 Tim Berners- -Lee Lee’ ’s WWW made available s WWW made available • Tim Berners on the Internet on the Internet Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Growth of the Internet Growth of the Internet • 1991 1991 NSF opens Internet to commercial use • NSF opens Internet to commercial use • 1992 1992 Internet Society formed • Internet Society formed • 1992 1992 NSFNET upgraded to T- -3 backbone 3 backbone • NSFNET upgraded to T • 1993 1993 Marc Andreeson Andreeson Mosaic browser Mosaic browser • Marc • 1994 1994 Cantor & Siegel introduce spam • Cantor & Siegel introduce spam th anniversary • 1994 1994 BBN celebrates 25 th anniversary • BBN celebrates 25 • 1995 1995 dot.com boom starts with faith that a boom starts with faith that a • dot.com “new economy new economy” ” is beginning is beginning “ • 1996 1996 Telecom Act deregulates data networks • Telecom Act deregulates data networks • 1996 1996 More email than postal mail in USA • More email than postal mail in USA • 1997 1997 Internet2 consortium is established • Internet2 consortium is established • 1997 1997 IEEE releases 802.11 (WiFi) standard • IEEE releases 802.11 (WiFi) standard Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Spam ! Spam ! • It surfaced as a critical and widely publicized It surfaced as a critical and widely publicized • event in April 1994 when two Arizona- -based based event in April 1994 when two Arizona attorneys arguably became the two most attorneys arguably became the two most hated individuals in the history of the hated individuals in the history of the Internet. It was Lawrence Canter and Martha Internet. It was Lawrence Canter and Martha Siegel, the famous "green card lawyers" who Siegel, the famous "green card lawyers" who "spammed" the Internet. "spammed" the Internet. Leonard Kleinrock 2007
• From: Laurence Canter (nike@indirect.com nike@indirect.com) ) • From: Laurence Canter ( The First The First Subject: Green Card Lottery Subject: Green Card Lottery- - Final One? Final One? Newsgroups: Newsgroups: alt.brother alt.brother- -jed jed, , alt.pub.coffeehouse.amethyst alt.pub.coffeehouse.amethyst View: Complete Thread (4 articles) | Original Format View: Complete Thread (4 articles) | Original Format Date: 1994 Date: 1994- -04 04- -12 00:40:42 PST 12 00:40:42 PST Spam email Spam email Green Card Lottery 1994 May Be The Last One! Green Card Lottery 1994 May Be The Last One! THE DEADLINE HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED. THE DEADLINE HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED. The Green Card Lottery is a completely legal program giving away a a The Green Card Lottery is a completely legal program giving away certain annual allotment of Green Cards to persons born in certain in certain annual allotment of Green Cards to persons born in certa countries. The lottery program was scheduled to continue on a countries. The lottery program was scheduled to continue on a permanent basis. However, recently, Senator Alan J Simpson However, recently, Senator Alan J Simpson permanent basis. introduced a bill into the U. S. Congress which could end any future ture introduced a bill into the U. S. Congress which could end any fu lotteries. THE 1994 LOTTERY IS SCHEDULED TO TAKE PLACE lotteries. THE 1994 LOTTERY IS SCHEDULED TO TAKE PLACE SOON, BUT IT MAY BE THE VERY LAST ONE. SOON, BUT IT MAY BE THE VERY LAST ONE. PERSONS BORN IN MOST COUNTRIES QUALIFY, MANY FOR PERSONS BORN IN MOST COUNTRIES QUALIFY, MANY FOR FIRST TIME. FIRST TIME. The only countries NOT qualifying are: Mexico; India; P.R. China; are: Mexico; India; P.R. China; The only countries NOT qualifying Taiwan, Philippines, North Korea, Canada, United Kingdom (except Taiwan, Philippines, North Korea, Canada, United Kingdom (except Northern Ireland), Jamaica, Northern Ireland), Jamaica, Domican Domican Republic, El Salvador and Republic, El Salvador and Vietnam. Vietnam. Lottery registration will take place soon. 55,000 Green Cards will be Lottery registration will take place soon. 55,000 Green Cards will be given to those who register correctly. NO JOB IS REQUIRED. NO JOB IS REQUIRED. given to those who register correctly. THERE IS A STRICT JUNE DEADLINE. THE TIME TO START IS THERE IS A STRICT JUNE DEADLINE. THE TIME TO START IS NOW!! NOW!! For FREE information via Email, send request to For FREE information via Email, send request to cslaw@indirect.com cslaw@indirect.com **************************************************************** ***************************************************************** * Canter & Siegel, Immigration Attorneys Canter & Siegel, Immigration Attorneys 3333 E Camelback Road, Ste 250, Phoenix AZ 85018 85018 USA USA 3333 E Camelback Road, Ste 250, Phoenix AZ Leonard Kleinrock 2007 cslaw@indirect.com cslaw@indirect.com telephone (602)661- telephone (602)661 -3911 3911 Fax (602) 451 Fax (602) 451- -7617 7617
Growth of the Internet Growth of the Internet • 1997 1997 Leiner, et al publish , et al publish “ “The Past and Future The Past and Future • Leiner History of the Internet Internet” ” http://www.isoc.org/internet/history/brief.shtm History of the • 1998 1998 Blogs begin to appear begin to appear • Blogs • 1998 1998 VOIP equipment begins rolling out • VOIP equipment begins rolling out th anniversary • 1999 1999 UCLA celebrates 30 th anniversary • UCLA celebrates 30 • 1999 1999 Napster rolls out • Napster rolls out • 2000 2000 dot.com bubble begins to burst bubble begins to burst • dot.com • 2001 2001 Napster forced to suspend service • Napster forced to suspend service • 2003 2003 Flash mobs gain popularity • Flash mobs gain popularity • 2003 2003 World Summit on the Information Society • World Summit on the Information Society st meeting in Geneva (WSIS) 1 st meeting in Geneva (WSIS) 1 th anniversary • 2004 2004 UCLA celebrates 35 th anniversary • UCLA celebrates 35 Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Growth of the Internet Growth of the Internet • 2004 USA phone Revenue: • 2004 USA phone Revenue: mobile = fixed line = $50 billion mobile = fixed line = $50 billion • 2004 USA leads in avg avg minutes for a cell call minutes for a cell call • 2004 USA leads in USA =15- -20, Korea = 8, Japan = 6, Britain = 5, World = 3 20, Korea = 8, Japan = 6, Britain = 5, World = 3 USA =15 • 2004 Camera- -enabled phone sales exceed enabled phone sales exceed • 2004 Camera combined sales of digital + film camera combined sales of digital + film camera • 2005 812 million cell phones sold • 2005 812 million cell phones sold 219 million laptops sold 219 million laptops sold • 2005 Google is the darling of the Internet • 2005 Google is the darling of the Internet • 2005 Peer- -to to- -Peer Grows; Supreme Court Peer Grows; Supreme Court • 2005 Peer Decision supports RIAA et al. Decision supports RIAA et al. • 2005 Grokster closes down closes down • 2005 Grokster Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Growth of the Internet Growth of the Internet • 2005 2005 AT&T disappears • AT&T disappears • In 1983 it was the world In 1983 it was the world’ ’s largest corporation with s largest corporation with • assets > $125 billion assets > $125 billion • On November 18, it ceased to exist as an On November 18, it ceased to exist as an • independent company; SBC bought AT&T independent company; SBC bought AT&T • It employed some of the world It employed some of the world’ ’s best scientists s best scientists • and worst managers and died of stupidity. and worst managers and died of stupidity. • 2005 2005 AT&T reappears • AT&T reappears SBC renames itself as AT&T SBC renames itself as AT&T • • • 2005 2005 Google maps and Google Earth • Google maps and Google Earth appear appear • 2005 2005 Web 2.0 technologies (e.g., social • Web 2.0 technologies (e.g., social networks, blogs blogs, , wikis wikis) heat up ) heat up networks, Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Growth of the Internet Growth of the Internet • 2005 2005 MySpace has more page views than has more page views than • MySpace Google Google • 2006 2006 Is Google evil? • Is Google evil? • 2006 2006 YouTube purchased by Google purchased by Google • YouTube for $1.65 billion for $1.65 billion • 2006 2006 Nanotechnology showing up • Nanotechnology showing up • 2007 2007 AT&T largest US Carrier again! • AT&T largest US Carrier again! • 2007 2007 2007 Mobile TV, ads, apps and Mobile TV, ads, apps and • 2007 content content Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Personalities Who Brought The Personalities Who Brought Us All This Technology Us All This Technology Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Some of the Wireless Personalities The Early Pioneers Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Some of the Internet Personalities The Early Pioneers The Implementers The Value Adders The Launchers The Billionaires Leonard Kleinrock 2007
4. The Early Internet Vision Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Did you see this coming? Well … Remember Yes and No ! my 1969 Vision The Press Me Leonard Kleinrock 2007
So What Was So What Was My Early Internet Vision? My Early Internet Vision? • The Internet technology will be everywhere The Internet technology will be everywhere • • Always accessible Always accessible • • Always on Always on • • Anyone can plug in any device anywhere Anyone can plug in any device anywhere • • Invisible Invisible • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Internet Got it Right The Internet Got it Right Almost Almost Yep The Internet technology will be everywhere The Internet technology will be everywhere Yep Always accessible Always accessible Yep Always on Always on Nope Anyone can plug in any device anywhere Anyone can plug in any device anywhere Nope Invisible Invisible Leonard Kleinrock 2007
What Did the Internet Get Wrong? What Did the Internet Get Wrong? • The Internet model grew up assuming that The Internet model grew up assuming that • • the end user, the end user, • • his device, his device, • This is no longer true: This is no longer true: This is no longer true: This is no longer true: • its IP address, its IP address, • the nomads are taking over the nomads are taking over the nomads are taking over the nomads are taking over • his location his location • • are always tightly coupled. are always tightly coupled. • Joe’s computer Joe Joe’s computer’s IP Address Joe’s Office Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Enablers Enablers for the Dark Side for the Dark Side • The Internet allows anyone to reach The Internet allows anyone to reach • hundreds of millions of users hundreds of millions of users easily, easily, quickly, quickly, at essentially no cost (in money or effort), at essentially no cost (in money or effort), anonymously. anonymously. • This is a This is a perfect formula perfect formula for enabling the for enabling the • dark side of the Internet. dark side of the Internet. Leonard Kleinrock 2007
5. The Future Vision The Edge Evolves The Edge Evolves Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Extending My Internet Vision: Extending My Internet Vision: The Internet’ ’s Next Five Phases s Next Five Phases The Internet Phase 1: Nomadic Computing Phase 1: Nomadic Computing Phase 2: Embedded Technology (or Phase 2: Embedded Technology (or Smart Spaces/Smart Nets) Smart Spaces/Smart Nets) Phase 3: Ubiquitous Computing Phase 3: Ubiquitous Computing Phase 4: Convergence Phase 4: Convergence Phase 5: Software Agents Phase 5: Software Agents Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Phase 1: Nomadic Computing Phase 1: Nomadic Computing In Your Office You Have ... In Your Office You Have ... • A High performance workstation A High performance workstation • • Access to high speed networks Access to high speed networks • • Support from an IT Systems Administrator Support from an IT Systems Administrator • You lose the last 2 as soon as you You lose the last 2 as soon as you go on the road ! go on the road ! We need a portable portable network network We need a administrator. administrator. Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Future Vision Phase 1: Nomadic Computing Phase 1: Nomadic Computing In Your Office You Have ... In Your Office You Have ... The system support to provide The system support to provide • A High performance workstation A High performance workstation • the nomadic user with trouble- - the nomadic user with trouble free Internet service from free Internet service from any device, any device, • Access to high speed networks Access to high speed networks • any place, any place, at any time. • Support from an IT Systems Administrator Support from an IT Systems Administrator at any time. • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Phase 2: Embeded Phase 2: Embeded Technology: Technology: Smart Spaces & Smart Networks Smart Spaces & Smart Networks • Our environment will be Our environment will be • Thousands of Thousands of • • alive with technology all with technology all processors per alive processors per around us human around us human • In the walls In the walls • Logic, memory Logic, memory • • • In my desk In my desk • Communications Communications • • • In my belt In my belt • Actuators, sensors Actuators, sensors • • • In my eyeglasses In my eyeglasses • Cameras, Cameras, • • • In my refrigerator In my refrigerator • Microphones, Microphones, • • speakers speakers • In my automobile In my automobile • • Displays. Displays. • • In my fingernails In my fingernails • • In my hotel room. In my hotel room. • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Future Vision Phase 2: Embeded Phase 2: Embeded Technology: Technology: Smart Spaces & Smart Nets Smart Spaces & Smart Nets • Our environment will be Our environment will be • Thousands of Thousands of • • alive with technology all with technology all processors per alive processors per around us human around us human Small intelligent devices Small intelligent devices • In the walls In the walls • Logic, memory Logic, memory • • embedded in the physical world embedded in the physical world • In my desk In my desk • Communications Communications • • and connected to the Internet and connected to the Internet • In my belt In my belt • Actuators, sensors Actuators, sensors • • • In my eyeglasses In my eyeglasses • Cameras, Cameras, • • • In my refrigerator In my refrigerator • Microphones, Microphones, • • speakers speakers • In my automobile In my automobile • • Displays. Displays. • • In my fingernails In my fingernails • • In my hotel room. In my hotel room. • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
What WILL be Connected? What WILL be Connected? Leonard Kleinrock 2007
What WILL be Connected? What WILL be Connected? Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Future Vision Phase 3: Phase 3: Ubiquitous Computing Ubiquitous Computing • Sequence of ubiquitous access • Sequence of ubiquitous access technologies: technologies: Dial- -up access up access Dial • • Copper DSL Copper DSL • • Cable modems Cable modems • • Satellite access Satellite access • • Cellular 3G, 4G etc Cellular 3G, 4G etc • • WiFi WiFi • • WiMax WiMax • • Fiber. Fiber. • • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Computing Goes Un- -tethered tethered Computing Goes Un • WiFi WiFi spreading spreading • • Cellular Cellular pervasive pervasive • • Ultra Wide Band Ultra Wide Band showing on product showing on product • roadmaps roadmaps • Cognitive Radio Cognitive Radio emerging in Standards emerging in Standards • • RFID RFID use in inventory management use in inventory management • • IEEE IEEE Zigbee Zigbee moving forward in pervasive low moving forward in pervasive low- - • cost sensor networks cost sensor networks • Near Field Communication Near Field Communication finding its way into finding its way into • almost touch transaction transaction- -based computing based computing almost touch Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Future Vision Phase 3: Phase 3: Ubiquitous Computing Ubiquitous Computing Internet service availability Internet service availability wherever the nomad travels on wherever the nomad travels on a global basis a global basis Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Future Vision Phase 4: Phase 4: Convergence Convergence Content Content Function Function Services Services Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Let’ ’s Focus on the Mobile Device s Focus on the Mobile Device Let Leonard Kleinrock 2007
It is a Content Rendering Device It is a Content Rendering Device Leonard Kleinrock 2007
On The Road On The Road • A person who carries a digital watch, A person who carries a digital watch, • a 2- -way email pager, cell phone, MP3 way email pager, cell phone, MP3 a 2 player, PDA, camera, GPS and notebook player, PDA, camera, GPS and notebook computer is carrying: computer is carrying: • 8 displays, 8 displays, • • 6 keyboards, 6 keyboards, • • 5 speakers, 5 speakers, • This is Ridiculous! This is Ridiculous! • 3 microphones, 3 microphones, • • 8 clocks, 8 clocks, • • 8 batteries and 7 chargers 8 batteries and 7 chargers • • 4 communication devices. 4 communication devices. • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Let’ ’s Converge Them Into One Device All This Garbage I Carry Around s Converge Them Into One Device Let All This Garbage I Carry Around Portable Camera GPS Device MP3/Video Television Pager Phone Rolodex Camcorder FM Radio PDA Game Console PC Leonard Kleinrock 2007 watch Walkie-Talkie
The Converged Smart Phone The Converged Smart Phone Features Features Future Enhancements Future Enhancements • Phone Phone • Touchscreen Touchscreen • • • Messaging Messaging • Large, high resolution screen Large, high resolution screen • • • Calendar Calendar • Powerful processor Powerful processor • • • E E- -mail mail • Vast storage space Vast storage space • • • Internet Internet • Considerable battery life Considerable battery life • • Access Access • Intuitive input system Intuitive input system • • Camera Camera • Video Phone Video Phone • • • Music Player Music Player • Movie Player Movie Player • • • Game Player Game Player • Mobile TV Mobile TV • • • Wireless Wireless • GPS Mapping GPS Mapping • • Headset Headset • Compass Compass • • Accelerometer Accelerometer • • Wi Wi- -Fi Connectivity Fi Connectivity • • Software defined radio Software defined radio • • Pocket Pocket- -size size • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Device Earlier Known as The Device Earlier Known as the Cell Phone the Cell Phone Will Become a Communicating Will Become a Communicating Multifunction Rendering Device Multifunction Rendering Device Leonard Kleinrock 2007
A Converged Phone A Converged Phone Those keyboards Those keyboards are getting smaller are getting smaller But My Fingers But My Fingers Are Not ! Are Not ! Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Screens Are Getting Smaller The Screens Are Getting Smaller And My Eyes And My Eyes Are Getting Are Getting Weaker Weaker Leonard Kleinrock 2007
How Far Have We Come in 35 How Far Have We Come in 35 Years? Years? Honeywell DDP-516 PalmOne Treo Interface Message Processor circa 2004 circa 1969 Connected to Internet via Connected to Internet via 50 kbps leased line 50 kbps GPRS link Leonard Kleinrock 2007 Ref: Henry Samueli, Broadcom, Inc.
What is the Mobile Device? What is the Mobile Device? • Traditional View Traditional View • It’ ’s a Phone s a Phone It • Hollywood View Hollywood View • It’ ’s a Tiny TV s a Tiny TV It • Silicon Valley View Silicon Valley View • It’ ’s a PDA s a PDA It • Game Industry View Game Industry View • It’ ’s a s a GameBoy GameBoy It • Correct View Correct View • It’ ’s a Whole New Medium ! s a Whole New Medium ! It Leonard Kleinrock 2007
The Fourth Screen is Here The Fourth Screen is Here and Always With You and Always With You Phone Screen PC Screen TV Screen Movie Screen Leonard Kleinrock 2007
New Services New Services Multi- -Billion Dollar Industries Billion Dollar Industries Multi • Ring Ring- -back tones (fan tones) back tones (fan tones) • • Music Streaming Music Streaming • • Full Song Downloads Full Song Downloads • • Music Video Downloads Music Video Downloads • • Full Video Downloads Full Video Downloads • • Gaming Gaming • • Gambling Gambling • • Sports. Sports. • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Motivated Wireless Ads Motivated Wireless Ads Sign up customers (e.g., students) Sign up customers (e.g., students) Offer them cash for watching ads they request Offer them cash for watching ads they request 15 second ads download to their cellphone cellphone at night at night 15 second ads download to their Advertisers choose demographic and location Advertisers choose demographic and location Customer clicks on icon immediately after watching an ad: Customer clicks on icon immediately after watching an ad: This generates the cash ($1 per ad) This generates the cash ($1 per ad) This satisfies advertiser that ad was viewed. This satisfies advertiser that ad was viewed. http://www.blowfishworks.com/ Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Wireless Heart Implant Wireless Heart Implant • The Medtronic Chronicle monitors blood The Medtronic Chronicle monitors blood • pressure and other conditions inside the hearts pressure and other conditions inside the hearts of patients suffering heart failure. of patients suffering heart failure. • The goal is send a wireless alert to warn The goal is send a wireless alert to warn • patients, their doctors and caregivers when they patients, their doctors and caregivers when they are in danger at a point before they need to be are in danger at a point before they need to be hospitalized. hospitalized. Friday, March 2, 2007 Medtronic's Chronicle Fails Friday, March 2, 2007 Medtronic's Chronicle Fails Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Wireless Sensor for Diabetics Wireless Sensor for Diabetics • Peripheral neuropathy Peripheral neuropathy • • Pressure sensor Pressure sensor • Pressure Alert Shoe Pressure Wireless MediNode Sensor Processor Cellphone MediSens Wireless, Inc. 27621 San Valle, Mission Viejo, CA 92692 PDA, iPod Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Valentine’ ’s Day: Feb 14, 2007 s Day: Feb 14, 2007 Valentine • 50 50- -mile backup on Pennsylvania mile backup on Pennsylvania’ ’s I s I- -78 78 • • Gov. Ed Rendell said the recent fiasco on Gov. Ed Rendell said the recent fiasco on • Interstate 78 included a "total breakdown Interstate 78 included a "total breakdown in communications." in communications." Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Valentine’ ’s Day: s Day: Valentine It Could Have Been Better It Could Have Been Better • With picture phones that now include With picture phones that now include • GPS, drivers could have informed officials GPS, drivers could have informed officials and they could have pieced together and they could have pieced together detailed mile- -by mile photo maps by mile photo maps -- -- detailed mile "mashed up" with Google maps of "mashed up" with Google maps of precisely where the worst conditions precisely where the worst conditions were! were! Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Location- -Based Services Based Services Location • The obvious location- -based services based services - - the ones the ones • The obvious location available today - - are are available today Basic mapping Basic mapping • • Direction finding Direction finding • • Yellow Pages- -style listings style listings Yellow Pages • • • • New location- New location -based services: based services: Mashup services that let users create, tag, and annotate services that let users create, tag, and annotate Mashup • • their own maps their own maps • • Passive Service: Passive Service: “This is a quality restaurant This is a quality restaurant” ” “ • • “This is City Hall This is City Hall” ” “ • • • Active Services: • Active Services: Note left for spouse to buy milk here Note left for spouse to buy milk here • • “Family or friends are nearby “ Family or friends are nearby” ” • • “Interesting performance going on in this auditorium “ Interesting performance going on in this auditorium” ” • • Ad from a store offering a discount now Ad from a store offering a discount now • • • Camera phone that can read bar codes • Camera phone that can read bar codes • Cameras that can read coupons on your cellphone cellphone • Cameras that can read coupons on your Leonard Kleinrock 2007
From Convergence From Convergence to Divergence to Divergence Leonard Kleinrock 2007
With Convergence Comes With Convergence Comes Divergence Divergence • Bluetooth earpiece Bluetooth earpiece • • Implanted pacemaker Implanted pacemaker • • The advanced nerd The advanced nerd • • Head Head- -mounted displays mounted displays • • Minority Report Minority Report • • Things you didn Things you didn’ ’t anticipate t anticipate • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
Yet More Divergence in the Yet More Divergence in the Environment Environment Leonard Kleinrock 2007 The Intelligent Car
The Future Vision Phase 5 : Phase 5 : Software Agents Software Agents • Intelligent Intelligent software agents software agents will be will be • deployed across the network whose deployed across the network whose function it will be to function it will be to • Mine data Mine data • • Act on that data Act on that data • • Observe trends Observe trends • • Carry out tasks dynamically Carry out tasks dynamically • • Adapt to their environment. Adapt to their environment. • Leonard Kleinrock 2007
So What’ ’s the Infrastructure s the Infrastructure So What Vision? Vision? Start With Mine From 1969: Start With Mine From 1969: • The Internet technology will be everywhere The Internet technology will be everywhere • • Always accessible Always accessible • • Always on Always on • We Got That Far We Got That Far We Are On Our Way to the Next Steps: We Are On Our Way to the Next Steps: • Anyone can plug in any device anywhere Anyone can plug in any device anywhere • • Invisible Invisible • Now Let’ ’s Expand That Vision: s Expand That Vision: Now Let Leonard Kleinrock 2007
An Expanded Vision of the Future An Expanded Vision of the Future • Armies of Nomads dashing about Armies of Nomads dashing about • • Small pervasive Small pervasive devices ubiquitously devices ubiquitously • embedded in the physical world, in the physical world, embedded • Providing the capabilities of Providing the capabilities of • • actuators, sensors, logic, memory, processing, actuators, sensors, logic, memory, processing, • communications, speakers, microphones, cameras, communications, speakers, microphones, cameras, displays, etc. displays, etc. • Intelligent Intelligent software agents software agents deployed across deployed across • the network the network whose function it is to whose function it is to • • • mine data, act on that data, observe trends, carry out mine data, act on that data, observe trends, carry out • tasks dynamically and adapt to their environment. tasks dynamically and adapt to their environment. • Considerably more network traffic Considerably more network traffic • generated not so much by humans not so much by humans, but by , but by generated these embedded devices devices and these and these these embedded intelligent software agents agents. . intelligent software Leonard Kleinrock 2007
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