LEEM Advisory Board Meeting ACCELERATING An Environmentally - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LEEM Advisory Board Meeting

ACCELERATING An “Environmentally Sensitive Electricity” FUTURE

September 1, 2015 Wayne State University Detroit, MI

Agenda



WELCOME & Introductions 10:30



Updates 11:00

 Project #991 Wrap Up  Commercialization Milestones  I-Corps



Pilots/HCS 11:30



Lunch 12:00



Validation 12:30



LEEM 3.0 2:30



Next Steps 2:45



Adjourn 3:00

Updates Since Last Meeting

#991 Wrap Up



Accomplished or exceeded all project objectives

• n time and on budget



LEEM Additions & Improvements



Expansion Market Research



Technology Transfer Roadmap

LEEM 2.5 Technical Improvements Include …

 Coverage  Prime Mover/Fuels  Generation Cost/Generator-Fuel

Probability Distribution Functions

 Outputs

LEEM 2.5 ISO COVERAGE

LMP = Locational Marginal Price CPN = Commercial Pricing Node PM-FT = Prime Mover-Fuel Type ISO = Independent System Operator LEEM 2.5 LEEM 3.0

Location within MISO, NYISO & PJMISO Date and Time ISO s Database Tag CPN Tag LMP EIA PM-FT Heat Rate Fuel Price Archive

Tag ISO, NERC Region & eGRID Sub-Region

LMP Power Generation Cost of PM-FT

Marginal Generator PM-FT

PM-FT Emission rate Air Market & eGRID CO2, NOx, SOx, Hg, Pb Emission rate (lb/kWh)

LEEM 2.5 (Today)

Stochastic Approach

Heat Rate – Generator Type Probability Distribution Functions

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 5 10 15 20 Probability Heat Rate (MMBtu/MWh)

Heat Rate (MMBtu/MWh)

ST-DFO ST-SUB ST-NG CA,CT-NG

0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2 5 10 15 20 Probability Fuel Price ($/MMBtu)

Fuel Price ($/MMBtu)

DFO(RFC) SUB(RFC) NG(RFC)

Fuel Price – Fuel Type Probability Distribution Functions

Generation Cost – Generator Type Probability Distribution Functions

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 50 100 150 200 250 300 Probability Generation Cost ($/MWh)

Generation Cost ($/MWh)

ST-DFO(RFC) ST-SUB(RFC) ST-NG(RFC) CA,CT-NG(RFC)

LMP = f (space, time)

Day-Ahead hourly LMPs for Chicago, Detroit & Buffalo

LMP to LME



LEEM methodology takes this granular information on LMP as f(time,space) and calculates LME

Locational Marginal Emissions

Pilot with HCS – HEPTA Control Systems



Chrysler Building – Campus Martius, Detroit

 Suite of over 50 Buildings



Control (RT) and Carbon Footprint

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 8/20/2015 0:00 8/20/2015 1:12 8/20/2015 2:24 8/20/2015 3:36 8/20/2015 4:48 8/20/2015 6:00 8/20/2015 7:12 8/20/2015 8:24 8/20/2015 9:36 8/20/2015 10:48 8/20/2015 12:00 8/20/2015 13:12 8/20/2015 14:24 8/20/2015 15:36 8/20/2015 16:48 8/20/2015 18:00 8/20/2015 19:12 8/20/2015 20:24 8/20/2015 21:36 8/20/2015 22:48 8/21/2015 0:00 Power Demand (kW) Date/Time

One Campus Martius Building Power Demand (Side A & B) (kW)

Chrysler Building (Side A & B) Power Demand (kW) on 08/20/2015

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 8/20/2015 0:00 8/20/2015 1:12 8/20/2015 2:24 8/20/2015 3:36 8/20/2015 4:48 8/20/2015 6:00 8/20/2015 7:12 8/20/2015 8:24 8/20/2015 9:36 8/20/2015 10:48 8/20/2015 12:00 8/20/2015 13:12 8/20/2015 14:24 8/20/2015 15:36 8/20/2015 16:48 8/20/2015 18:00 8/20/2015 19:12 8/20/2015 20:24 8/20/2015 21:36 8/20/2015 22:48 8/21/2015 0:00 Pollution Emission (lb) Date/Time

Chrysler Building CO2 Emission (lb)

CO2

Chrysler Building (Side A & B) CO2 Emission (lb) 08/20/2015

Chrysler Building (Side A & B) Accumulated CO2 Emission (lb)

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 8/20/2015 0:00 8/20/2015 1:12 8/20/2015 2:24 8/20/2015 3:36 8/20/2015 4:48 8/20/2015 6:00 8/20/2015 7:12 8/20/2015 8:24 8/20/2015 9:36 8/20/2015 10:48 8/20/2015 12:00 8/20/2015 13:12 8/20/2015 14:24 8/20/2015 15:36 8/20/2015 16:48 8/20/2015 18:00 8/20/2015 19:12 8/20/2015 20:24 8/20/2015 21:36 8/20/2015 22:48 8/21/2015 0:00 Pollution Emission (lb) Date/Time

Accumulated CO2 Emission (lb)

Accumulated CO2

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0:00 1:12 2:24 3:36 4:48 6:00 7:12 8:24 9:36 10:48 12:00 13:12 14:24 15:36 16:48 18:00 19:12 20:24 21:36 22:48 0:00

Pollution Emission (lb) Date/Time

One Campus Martius Building CO2 Emission (lb)

C… 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0:00 1:12 2:24 3:36 4:48 6:00 7:12 8:24 9:36 10:48 12:00 13:12 14:24 15:36 16:48 18:00 19:12 20:24 21:36 22:48 0:00

Pollution Emission (lb) Date/Time

NOx & SOx Emission (lb)

NO x 0.000002 0.000004 0.000006 0.000008 0.00001 0.000012 0.000014 0.000016 0:00 1:12 2:24 3:36 4:48 6:00 7:12 8:24 9:36 10:48 12:00 13:12 14:24 15:36 16:48 18:00 19:12 20:24 21:36 22:48 0:00

Pollution Emission (lb) Date/Time

Hg & Pb Emission (lb)

H G

Chrysler Building (Side A & B) Pollution Emission (lb)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 8/20/2015 0:00 8/20/2015 1:12 8/20/2015 2:24 8/20/2015 3:36 8/20/2015 4:48 8/20/2015 6:00 8/20/2015 7:12 8/20/2015 8:24 8/20/2015 9:36 8/20/2015 10:48 8/20/2015 12:00 8/20/2015 13:12 8/20/2015 14:24 8/20/2015 15:36 8/20/2015 16:48 8/20/2015 18:00 8/20/2015 19:12 8/20/2015 20:24 8/20/2015 21:36 8/20/2015 22:48 8/21/2015 0:00

Emission Rate (lb/MWh) Date/Time

DECO.RVRRGE2 CO2 Emission Rate (lb/MWh)

C… 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 8/20/2015 0:00 8/20/2015 1:12 8/20/2015 2:24 8/20/2015 3:36 8/20/2015 4:48 8/20/2015 6:00 8/20/2015 7:12 8/20/2015 8:24 8/20/2015 9:36 8/20/2015 10:48 8/20/2015 12:00 8/20/2015 13:12 8/20/2015 14:24 8/20/2015 15:36 8/20/2015 16:48 8/20/2015 18:00 8/20/2015 19:12 8/20/2015 20:24 8/20/2015 21:36 8/20/2015 22:48 8/21/2015 0:00

Emission Rate (lb/MWh) Date/Time

DECO.RVRRGE2 NOx & SOx Emission Rate (lb/MWh)

N O… 0.00E+00 2.00E-05 4.00E-05 6.00E-05 8.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.20E-04 1.40E-04 1.60E-04 1.80E-04 2.00E-04 8/20/2015 0:00 8/20/2015 1:12 8/20/2015 2:24 8/20/2015 3:36 8/20/2015 4:48 8/20/2015 6:00 8/20/2015 7:12 8/20/2015 8:24 8/20/2015 9:36 8/20/2015 10:48 8/20/2015 12:00 8/20/2015 13:12 8/20/2015 14:24 8/20/2015 15:36 8/20/2015 16:48 8/20/2015 18:00 8/20/2015 19:12 8/20/2015 20:24 8/20/2015 21:36 8/20/2015 22:48 8/21/2015 0:00

Emission Rate (lb/MWh) Date/Time

DECO.RVRRGE2 Gh & Pb Emission Rate (lb/MWh)

H G

DECO.RVRRGE2 CPN (Closest CPN to One Campus Martius Building) Emission Rates (lb/MWh) on 08/20/2015 (5 min intervals)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8/20/2015 0:00 8/20/2015 1:12 8/20/2015 2:24 8/20/2015 3:36 8/20/2015 4:48 8/20/2015 6:00 8/20/2015 7:12 8/20/2015 8:24 8/20/2015 9:36 8/20/2015 10:48 8/20/2015 12:00 8/20/2015 13:12 8/20/2015 14:24 8/20/2015 15:36 8/20/2015 16:48 8/20/2015 18:00 8/20/2015 19:12 8/20/2015 20:24 8/20/2015 21:36 8/20/2015 22:48 8/21/2015 0:00

Emission Rate (lb/MWh) Date/Time

PM-FT Probability as a Marginal Unit (All 14 PM-FT)

ST-BIT ST-DFO CA-CT-DFO GT-DFO IC-DFO ST-LIG CS-NG ST-NG CA-CT-NG GT-NG 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8/20/2015 0:00 8/20/2015 1:12 8/20/2015 2:24 8/20/2015 3:36 8/20/2015 4:48 8/20/2015 6:00 8/20/2015 7:12 8/20/2015 8:24 8/20/2015 9:36 8/20/2015 10:48 8/20/2015 12:00 8/20/2015 13:12 8/20/2015 14:24 8/20/2015 15:36 8/20/2015 16:48 8/20/2015 18:00 8/20/2015 19:12 8/20/2015 20:24 8/20/2015 21:36 8/20/2015 22:48 8/21/2015 0:00

Emission Rate (lb/MWh) Date/Time

PM-FT Probability as a Marginal Unit (PM-FTs with Non-Aero Probability)

ST- BIT

at DECO.RVRRGE2 CPN (Closest CPN to One Campus Martius Building) on 08/20/2015 (5 min intervals)

Commercialization Milestones



Awareness/Promo

 LEEM: Connecting Energy Consumption to Real Time Emissions

Impacts (Webinar 4/17/15; 90 Participants)

 Accelerating the Future of Environmentally Sensitive Electricity

(Symposium 5/19/15; 30 Attendees; Chicago)

 Recent interactions with EPA …. CLEAN POWER PLAN



Pilots Underway

 Hepta Control Systems/Bedrock Real Estate (Detroit)  Wayne State University/Siemens (Detroit)  WattTime/EcoMotorWorks (Chicago)



New Startup Company: Energy Emissions Intelligence LLC (E2i)

 To commercialize LEEM  In negotiation with Wayne State University for license  Hope to open for business in next few months

Funding



Recent NSF Grant



Urban Water Center



Upcoming Proposals

 Great Lakes Protection Fund  Illinois Science & Energy Innovation Foundation



Energy Emissions Intelligence LLC

I-Corps at NEXTEnergy



May to June 2015



Carol Miller, Guoyao Xu, Chris Theriot, Steve Miller, Gavin McCormick



Customer Discovery

 84 customer discovery interviews (utility

, energy policy , and corporate landscapes)

 Strong interest across market segments in LEEM’s transparency and ability to

time-shift energy to lower emissions. No one rejected the concept



Value Proposition

 Means to differentiate from competition and engage customer on sustainability

issues

 Concrete and measurable sustainability and green marketing tool  Appeals to customers motivated by interest rather than current ‘pain point’  Appeal for LEEM to increase significantly when EPA regulates carbon emissions



Initial Target Customers

 Energy managers/energy management software-hardware companies  Grid-connected devices/software integrators

Pilots

Pilots



Energy managers/energy management software-hardware companies

 Hepta Control Systems/Bedrock Real Estate (Detroit)  Wayne State University/Siemens (Detroit)



Grid-connected devices/software integrators

 WattTime/EcoMotorWorks (Chicago)



Ongoing operational improvements include …

 Now delivering continuous LEEM emissions data to offsite energy

management software

 Developing version 1.0 of Carbon Footprint calculator  Now able to receive building energy use data stream for carbon

footprint calculations

 PJM 5-minute LMP info is loaded into LEEM system

Validation

Validation Overview



LEEM Internal validation process

 Internal Sanity Testing  Comparing LEEM and Market Monitor Results for PJM



External validation by ISOs



How LEEM responds to

 Internal validation issues  Known/likely anomalous areas  External validation issues

Example PJM Marginal Emissions

HOUR MMS_TIMEZONE FUEL_TYPE PERCENT_MARGINAL 01JUN2015:00:00:00 EDT Natural Gas 0.6667 01JUN2015:00:00:00 EDT Coal 0.3333 01JUN2015:01:00:00 EDT Coal 0.25 01JUN2015:01:00:00 EDT Natural Gas 0.75 01JUN2015:02:00:00 EDT Natural Gas 0.8333 01JUN2015:02:00:00 EDT Coal 0.1667 01JUN2015:03:00:00 EDT Natural Gas 1 01JUN2015:04:00:00 EDT Natural Gas 0.9167 01JUN2015:04:00:00 EDT Coal 0.0833 01JUN2015:05:00:00 EDT Natural Gas 0.4375 01JUN2015:05:00:00 EDT Coal 0.5625 01JUN2015:06:00:00 EDT Natural Gas 0.1429 01JUN2015:06:00:00 EDT Coal 0.8571 01JUN2015:07:00:00 EDT Natural Gas 0.3333

http://www.monitoringanalytics.com/data/marginal_fuel.shtml

Extracted From PJM Documentation

Example During the first half of one hour, a coal unit is on the margin. In the second half of the hour, there are two units on the margin; one is a coal unit, the other a natural gas unit. Coal and gas are jointly marginal for the second half‐hour. Coal is marginal for six five‐minute intervals and jointly marginal for six five‐minute intervals. Gas is jointly marginal for six five‐minute intervals. Coal has a weight of 1.0 for the first six intervals and coal and gas each have a weight of 0.5 for the second six intervals. In this example, coal would be marginal for 75% of the hour and natural gas would be marginal for 25% of the hour.

Matching LEEM Results with Market Monitor Outputs for PJM (and ISONE)



Methodology Comparisons

 Market Monitor methodology  LEEM methodology (Uses Prime Mover)



Comparison Questions?



Credible Comparison Process



Acceptable Comparison Results



Next Steps

External Validation by ISOs



Test: LEEM accurately predicts correct marginal generator type __+% of time



Parameters

 Test: Frequency that LEEM predicts the correct marginal generator

type

 Multiple nodes  Real time 5 minute intervals  Day ahead 1 hour intervals

 Results

 Accuracy – how close the measured value is to the true value  Bias – systematic error that makes all measurements wrong by a certain

amount

 Variance - how LEEM results are distributed around the expected value or

mean

External Validation by ISOs



Test: LEEM accurately predicts correct marginal generator type __+% of time



Validation Process

 LEEM output needs (how many points, how much data, when, etc.?)  ISO validation tests  ISO validation results  Validation results analysis  LEEM refinement/improvement (if needed)  Re-validation (if needed)



Validation To-do’s

 LEEM  ISO  Other parties (if any)

LEEM 3.0

LEEM 3.0 (Future)



Additional LEEM methodological improvements

 E.g. identifying actual marginal generator



Additional geographies

 ISOs: California, ERCOT

, New England)

 Non-ISO territories



Ability to “count” and track emissions savings



New Signals: “Renewable Energy On” and “Peak Power Event”



Additional environmental impacts (e.g. water & particulates)

LMP = Locational Marginal Price CPN = Commercial Pricing Node PM-FT = Prime Mover-Fuel Type ISO = Independent System Operator LEEM 2.5 LEEM 3.0

Location within MISO, NYISO & PJMISO Date and Time ISO s Database Tag CPN Tag LMP EIA PM-FT Heat Rate Fuel Price Archive

Tag ISO, NERC Region & eGRID Sub-Region

LMP Power Generation Cost of PM-FT

Marginal Generator PM-FT

Emission rate (lb/kWh) PM-FT Emission rate Air Market & eGRID CO2, NOx, SOx, Hg, Pb Tag Power Plant Space of Expected Generator Location within ISO

Water Consumption of Power Plants Environmental Footprint

• f Electricity Usage

PM2.5, PM10

Predicted LMP Power Generation Cost of Each Plant

Using Historical Data & Machine Learning Predicting More Accurate Day Ahead LMP Modeling Power Distribution Network Power Generation Pattern

• f Solar, Wind, Nuclear

Generators

Marginal Power Generation Plant Congestion Cost & Distribution System Constraints

LEEM 3.0 (Future)

LEEM 3.0 GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE

Discussion about Accelerating LEEM 3.0



Key Features



Priorities



Suggestions



Funders

Next Steps

LEEM Team



Carbon Footprint Calculator



Continuing Outreach

 Energy management market  EPA, DOE etc.



Commercialization

 Energy Emissions Intelligence LLC



LEEM 3.0

LEEM Team + Advisory Board



Validation



Other Items from Today



Request for Continued Participation in LEEM Advisory Board



Next Meeting

Adjourn

STAY TUNED! & THANK YOU!

Subregions, Primary Fuel Generation Categories & Fuel Types

26 eGRID Subregions

• S. Mohsen Sadatiyan

A.

eGRID Primary Fuel Generation

Biomass Coal Gas Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Other Fossil Fuel Solar Wind Other Unknown/Purchase d/Waste Heat 11 Primary Fuel Generation Category

eGRID Primary Fuel Type

AB LIG SUB BFG MSB SUN BG NG TDF BIT NUC WAT BLQ OBS WC COG OG WDL DFO OTL WDS DG OTS WH GEO PC WND JF PP WO KER RFO LFG

RG 34 Primary Fuel Type