IPGA PU IP PULSE SES S CO CONC NCLAVE VE 19th 21 st February, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

INDIA PULSES SUPPLY & DEMAND OUTLOOK

Presented by

Sudhakar TOMAR

Managing Director

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 1

IP IPGA PU PULSE SES S CO CONC NCLAVE VE

19th – 21st February, 2014, Goa , India

Area of Interest

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 2

India’s Growing Food Needs

(1991 = 100)

Courtesy - www.statpub.com

As average age and incomes rise food needs will grow

Know your INDIA

 Covers population of 1. 22 Billion and area of 3.28

million sq km roughly the size of 1/3rd of Canada

 Economy 4.7 Trillion ( 3rd by PPP)  18% of world’s population ( > 60% under 30 )  2 % of world’s land (60% agricultural /30% irrigated)  less than 3.5% of world renewable fresh water (Canada

has 7% )

 Average per capita income : US$ 3851.00 (140th by PPP)  Food Import bill US$ 25 Billion ( 5% of total imports)  Employs >60% of work force in small scale agriculture

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 4

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 5

India – The fight between Nutrition Vs Calories

Know your INDIA

 Pulses area : 25-27 Million Hectares – 87% Rainfed with average

annual rainfall of 1000 mm ( almost double of AAP of Saskatchewan)

 Two Crop Cycles

Rabi ( Winter Crop) – Harvesting - March/April ( 65%)

 Major Crops – Chickpea , Lentil , Pea  Major Growers – M.P (33 %) UP (19% ) , AP (11%) (

Maharashtra ( 9%) Kharif (Monsoon Season) – Harvesting Sept /October ( 35%)

 Major Crops : Mung Beans ,Pigeon Peas ,Black Matpe  Major Growers : Maharashtra (24%) Rajsthan (15%),

UP(13%) , MP (10%)

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 6

Global Pulses Calendar

7

Pulses growing regions in India

Pulses value chain

How does India consume Pulses ?

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 10

How does India consume Pulses ?

Versatile Flour –Purees – Sauces – Salted & Sweet Snacks – Drinks – Breads – Cakes Extremely Versatile & Diversified usage : 11000 + Dishes Google search yields >2.2 Million results

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 11

From CANADA to KOLKATA

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 12

Area – Yields - Production

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 13

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 14

Pulses | Imports in first 9 months of 2013-14 season ( 000 MTs)

Pulses – Second Advance Estimate – Released on Valentines Day 14/02/2014

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 17

INDIA – Supply & Demand

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 18

Source : Stat Publishing Canada

The great Indian Pulses Matrix

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 19

India is the largest exporter of Kabuli Chickpeas @ 175,000 MTs

The ever Devaluing Indian Rupee ( INR)

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 20

AU$ 30% CA$ 18%

Pulses | How much is too much ?

* The Great Indian Pulses Plan *

To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 22

Masters of the game

 Indian Institute of Agricultural Research (ICAR)  Indian Institute of Pulses Research (IIPR)  All India Coordinated Research Projects (AICRPs) on Chickpeas,

Pigeonpeas, Lentils & Beans

How will they do it ?



Crop Development Schemes



National Food Security Mission - Pulses (NFSM-Pulses),



Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) - National Agri Development Scheme



Macro Management of Agriculture (MMA),



Integrated Scheme of Oilseeds, Pulses, Oil Palm & Maize (ISOPOM)



‘Accelerated Pulses Production Program (A3P)’



2013-2014 Legume Cultivation Scheme for Gram Mono Crop Areas ( Budget 2013-2014 US$ 60 Million)

India – Projected Pulse requirements 2012- 2030

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 23

* The Great Indian Pulses Plan *

To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 24

How really ? Quote…To meet the projected requirement for 1.68 Billion Indians the

productivity needs to uplift at 1361 kg per ha and about 3.million ha additional area has to be brought under pulses besides reducing the post-harvest losses.Unquote

• 1. Increasing government procurement

prices ( MSP) in reality

• 2. Bringing additional 3-5 Million Hectares

under Pulses cultivation

• 3. Improving yield from 700 Kg/Ha to 1361

Kg/Ha



………

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 25

 Estimating Supply & Demand Pulses in India  DISCLAIMER



WARNING
Business is unpredictable and unsafe. The Internet is dangerous. Many blogs have been written about these dangers, and there’s no way we can list them all here. Read the blogs.



The Internet is covered in slippery slopes with loose, slippery and unpredictable footing. The RIAA can make matters worse. Patent trolls are everywhere. You may fall, be spammed or suffer a DOS attack. There are hidden viruses and worms. You could break your computer. There is wild code, which may be vicious, poisonous or carriers of dread malware. These include viruses and worms. E-mail can be poisonous as well. We don’t do anything to protect you from any of this. We do not inspect, supervise or maintain the Internet, blogsphere, ISP†™ s or other features, natural or otherwise.



Real dangers are present even on the Web. E-commerce is not the mall. It can be, and is, steep, slippery and dangerous. Web features made or enhanced by humans, such as firewalls and spam filters (if any) can break, collapse, or otherwise fail catastrophically at any time. We don’t promise to inspect, supervise or maintain them in any way. They may be negligently constructed or repaired. The web is unsafe, period. Live with it or stay away.



Stay on trusted sites whenever possible. The terrain, in addition to being dangerous, is surprisingly complex. You may get lost. Carry food, water and an APU at all times.



Ads for things you don†™ t want and other objectionable content can arrive from nowhere. This can happen naturally, or be caused by people around you that are being used as bots. Spam and disgusting images of all sizes, including huge images, can arrive, or pop-up with no warning. Use of spam filters is advised for anyone approaching the Internet. They can be purchased or rented from us. They won’t save you if you get hit by something big or on a port you left open. A whole DOS attack might collapse on you and squash you like a bug. Don’t think it can’t happen.



Public opinion can be dangerous, regardless of the forecast. Be prepared with extra damage control, including press releases. Ticking off the blogsphere can kill you. The Streisand effect can turn a simple nastygram into a deathtrap.



If you make hasty comments about those in high places (making unsupported comments that reduce the image of a person, often posted quickly and without thinking) without proper thought and, or allow your employees to do so, you are making a terrible mistake. Even if you know what you’re doing, lots of things can go wrong and you may be sued for libel. It happens all the time.



We do not provide rangers or security personnel. The other people on the web, including other visitors, our employees, agents, and guests, and anyone else who might sneak in, may be stupid, reckless, or otherwise dangerous. They may be mentally ill, criminally insane, drunk, using illegal drugs and/or armed with deadly malware and ready to use them. We aren’t necessarily going to do anything about it. We refuse to take responsibility.



If you surf at work, you may become pre-occupied with it. This is true whether you are experienced or not, trained or not, equipped or not, though training and equipment may help. It’s a fact, surfing at work is extremely dangerous. If you don’t like it, surf at home. You really shouldn’t be doing it anyway. We do not provide supervision or instruction. We are not responsible for, and do not track how much time you surf at work (although we could if we wanted to.) As far as we know, your employer may find out and send you plunging to unemployment. There are countless tons of loose management staff ready to be dislodged and fall on you or someone

• else. There are any number of extremely and unusually dangerous conditions existing on and around the Web, and elsewhere on the Internet. We may or may not

know about any specific hazard, but even if we do, don’t expect us to try to warn you. You’re on your own.



Rescue services are not provided by us, and may not be available quickly or at all. Local computer geeks may not be equipped for or trained in hard drive recovery. If you are lucky enough to have somebody try to get rid of a virus or find that deleted file, they may be incompetent or worse. This includes your local computer store. We assume no responsibility. Also, if you decide to participate in a rescue of some other unfortunate, that’s your choice. Don’t do it unless you are willing to assume all risks.



By entering our site, you are agreeing that we owe you no duty of care or any other duty. We promise you nothing. We do not and will not even try to keep the premises safe for any purpose. The premises are not safe for any purpose. This is no joke. We won’t even try to warn you about any dangerous or hazardous condition, whether we know about it or not. If we do decide to warn you about something, that doesn’t mean we will try to warn you about anything else. If we do make an effort to fix an unsafe condition, we may not try to correct any others, and we may make matters worse! We and our employees or agents may do things that are unwise and

• dangerous. Sorry, we’re not responsible. We may give you bad advice. Don’t listen to us. In short, ENTER AND USE THIS SITE AT YOUR OWN RISK. And have fun!

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 26

How do we estimate

Supply & Demand numbers for Pulses in India

Domestic Retail Prices (Jan 2013-2014)

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 27

Price Outlook

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 28

Price Outlook

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 29

Price Outlook

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 30

Emerging Trends

• 1. Farmers – globally- will not grow pulses unless

they can make as much or more money than growing other crops –Battle for Acres will keep prices volatile

• 2. South Asian consumers will not buy more pulses

unless they are as cheap or cheaper than other foods (or they become Fashionable / Desirable) As a result, all crops will follow same price pattern

• 3. Developing countries will improve average

yields & reduce losses at farm and in logistics & storage chain

31

Emerging Trends 2

• 5. Changing ownership……….

 Glencore + Viterra + ABB  Cargill + AWB  AGT + Australian Milling Group + various  Legumex-Walker and so on  Archer Daniels Midland $2.3 billion bid for Graincorp

• 6. Global supply chain getting shorter

( Example : India - 18 Large Exporters to India run their own Origination & Distribution in India )

• 7. Intense Competition for

market share

32

Emerging Trends 3

• 7. New Competitors…….

 Ukraine, Russia other CIS countries  Emergence of North and East Africa (Ethiopia,

Tanzania) = still emergent – but catching up fast.

• 8. Changing Markets……

 Growing Indian middle class demanding quality  Dramatic changes in China  Health and Nutrition – New Usage of Pulses –

pulses as quality and healthy Ingredient to food industry seems the new Mantra = Changed demand patterns

33

AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 34

So what is in it for me ? what

AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 35

Acknowledgements

①

CGIAR/ICARDA

②

Pulse Canada / Gordon Bacon

③

Commodity India / Foretell

④

USDA

⑤

BRIAN CLANCEY / STATPUB

⑥

FAOSTAT /FAO

⑦

WFP

⑧

CICILS-IPTIC / Gavin Gibson

⑨ The Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Department of Agriculture, Government of

India, New Delhi

⑩ Retail Price Section, Directorate of Economics & Statistics,Ministry of Agriculture Government

• f India, New Delhi.

11

P K Joshi, Devesh Roy and P Kumar, K Inbasekar, R Chanda, A Negi, G Tripathi, V Sonkar, N Datta, B Mishra and P Parthasarty Rao of International Food Policy Research Institute

12

Glencore India / Pravin Dongre / Saurabh Bhartia / Anurag Tulshan / Dharmendra Vijaywargi / Anand Mandan / Sandip Burman Ray / Shahwar Khan

36

Thank you very much

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 37

HAKAN AGRO DMCC 34th Floor , Tower BB2 Mazaya Business Avenue Jumeirah Lakes Towers P O Box 31489 Dubai ( UAE) Email : sudhakar.tomar@hakanfoods.com Website : www.hakanfoods.com