INTEGRATIVE ASSESSMENT FROM SHOALS TO SEAS AND INTO THE FUTURE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

INTEGRATIVE ASSESSMENT – FROM SHOALS TO SEAS AND INTO THE FUTURE

From micro- to ecosystem scale: Do we know enough to make decisions? Chair: Sabine Cochrane, SALT and Jacob Carstensen, Aarhus University

DEVOTES Final Conference, 17 – 19 October 2016, Brussels

PRESENTORS IN BLOCK 6 (11:00 – 12:25) Christopher Smith, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research Jesper Andersen, NIVA Denmark Water Research Jacob Carstensen, Aarhus University Laura Uusitalo, SYKE Finnish Environment Ins]tute Fuensanta Salas Herrero, Joint Research Centre – European Commission Next: Mike Ellio-, University of Hull

How will climate change affect marine assessments?

Professor Mike Ellio_ Ins]tute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies, University of Hull, UK. With acknowledgements to Ángel Borja, Jesper Andersen, Krysia Mazik, Abigail McQua_ers-Gollop, Silvana Birchenough, Suzanne Pain]ng, Sue Boyes, Roxy Saul, Richard Barnes & Myron Peck

DEVOTES Final Conference, October 17-19 2016, Brussels

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Basic Premise:

• Exogenic (outside the management area) and endogenic

(inside the management area) pressures produce individual, in-combina]on and cumula]ve effects.

• Global climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure

where management has to respond to the consequences rather than the causes of that change.

• We can summarise our understanding as conceptual models

(‘horrendograms’) to inform future natural and social science research and management.

• This presents managers with the sequence of responses by

the natural and human systems, and hence indicate impediments to the implementa]on of legisla]on such as European Direc]ves.

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Hazard & Risk Typology:

Hazard leading to Risk (depending on assets) A) Surface hydrological hazards B) Surface physiographic removal by natural processes - chronic/long-term C) Surface physiographic removal by human ac]ons - chronic/long-term D) Surface physiographic removal - acute/short-term E) Climatological hazards - acute/short term F) Climatological hazards - chronic/long term G) Tectonic hazards - acute/short term H) Tectonic hazards - chronic/ long term I) Anthropogenic microbial biohazards J) Anthropogenic macrobial biohazards K) Anthropogenic introduced technological hazards L) Anthropogenic extrac]ve technological hazards M) Anthropogenic acute chemical hazards N) Anthropogenic chronic chemical hazards

= Risk Assessment & Risk Management (RA&RM):

• Hazard Identification:
• Risk Assessment:
• Risk Management:
• Risk Communication:

Abbrevia]ons: BWD= Bathing Water Direc]ve; BWM= Ballast Water Management Conven]on; CAP= Common Agricultural Policy; CFP= Common Fisheries Policy; EIA= Environmental Impact Assessment Direc]ve; FRMD= Flood Risk Management Direc]ve; FRMD (FRMP)= Flood Risk Management Direc]ve (Flood Risk Management Plan); HD= Habitats Direc]ve; MPS= Mari]me Spa]al Planning Direc]ve; MSFD= Marine Strategy Framework Direc]ve; Natura 2000= Habitats and Wild Birds direc]ves; Nitrates Dir= Nitrates Direc]ve; SAC= Special Area of Conserva]on; SEA Dir= Strategic Environmental Assessment Direc]ve; SPA= Special Protec]on Area; UWWTD= Urban Wastewater Treatment Direc]ve; WBD= Birds Direc]ve; WFD= Water Framework Direc]ve (with extension out to 12nm for chemical status); WFD (RBMP)= Water Framework Direc]ve (River Basin Management Plan)

Geographical scope and competencies of EU marine legisla]on

Activity Aquaculture Extraction of living resources Transport & Shipping Renewable Energy Non-renewable (fossil fuel) Energy Non-renewable (nuclear) Energy Extraction of non-living resources Navigational Dredging Coastal Infrastructure Land-based Industry Agriculture Tourism/Recreation Military Research Carbon Sequestration

Activities contributing to Endogenic Managed Pressures

Pressures Smothering Substratum loss Changes in siltation Abrasion Selective extraction of non-living resources (habitat removal) Underwater noise Litter Thermal regime change Salinity regime change Introduction of synthetic compounds Introduction of non- synthetic compounds Introduction of radionuclides Introduction of other substances Nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment Input of organic matter Introduction of microbial pathogens Introduction of non- indigenous species and translocations Selective extraction of species Death or injury by collision Barrier to species movement Emergence regime change Water flow rate changes pH changes Electromagnetic changes Change in wave exposure

Pressure Description Thermal regime change Temperature change (average, range, variability), climate change (large scale) Salinity regime change Temperature change (average, range, variability) due to climate change (large scale) Emergence regime change Change in natural sea level (mean, variation, range) due climate change (large scale) and isostatic rebound Water flow rate changes Change in currents (speed, direction, variability) due to climate change (large scale) pH changes Change in pH (mean, variation, range) due to climate change (large scale), volcanic activity (local) Change in wave exposure Change in size, number, distribution and/or periodicity of waves along a coast due to climate change (large scale). Exogenic Unmanaged Pressures – Climate Change-Induced Physico-chemical Pressures

Figure 2 Primary drivers and consequences of marine global climate change (cross- referring to other figures) Increased atmospheric CO2 Altered temperature regime Physico-chemical water changes

Loss of polar ice-cover (Fig. 10)

Increase in relative sea level Physiographic changes (Fig. 5) Physiological responses (Fig. 4) Changes to coastal hydrodynamics (Fig. 6) Ocean acidification (Fig. 9) Species re- distribution (Fig. 3) Changes to climate patterns Changes to estuarine hydrodynamics (Fig. 8) Changes to NAO/EAO and rainfall run-off (Fig. 7)

Figure 3 Species re-distribution and community response due to altered temperature regime (MSFD Descriptor denoted in brackets, see text) Altered temperature regime Species distribution change (D1, 4) Northern species decrease in area (D1, 3, 4)

Southern species increase in area (D1, 3, 4)

Change in community structure & functioning (D1, 4, 6) Fisheries repercussions (D3)

Increase of ‘rare’ / ’fragile’ species (D1)

Conservation management repercussions (D1, 6)

Decrease of ‘rare’ / ’fragile’ species (D1)

Species distribution change (D1, 4) Increased susceptibility to alien & invasive species (D1, 2, 4)

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Hazard & Risk Typology:

Hazard leading to Risk (depending on assets) A) Surface hydrological hazards B) Surface physiographic removal by natural processes - chronic/long-term C) Surface physiographic removal by human ac]ons - chronic/long-term D) Surface physiographic removal - acute/short-term E) Climatological hazards - acute/short term F) Climatological hazards - chronic/long term G) Tectonic hazards - acute/short term H) Tectonic hazards - chronic/ long term I) Anthropogenic microbial biohazards J) Anthropogenic macrobial biohazards K) Anthropogenic introduced technological hazards L) Anthropogenic extrac]ve technological hazards M) Anthropogenic acute chemical hazards N) Anthropogenic chronic chemical hazards

CC – hazards caused or exacerbated by climate change

• r societal

responses to climate change!! CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC CC

Summary: Cross rela]onships between CC impacts and GEnS Descriptors

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Topics Descriptor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 I Altered temperature regime – species re- distribution and community response ü ü ü ü ü II Altered temperature regime – individual physiological/phenological response ü ü ü ü ü ü III Increased relative sea-level rise - physiographic changes ü ü ü ü ü IV Increased climate variability effects on coastal hydrodynamics ü ü ü ü V Changes to large scale climatic patterns due to land run-off ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü VI Increased relative sea-level rise changing estuarine hydrodynamics ü ü ü ü VII Increased ocean acidification and seawater physico-chemical changes ü ü ü ü ü ü VIII Loss of polar ice cover and global transport repercussions ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü Sum categories 8 3 6 8 3 7 5 2 2 1 1

MSFD Wording

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In the proposed MSFD (CEC 2005), the highly variable nature of marine ecosystems and the changes over time in human activities and pressures, were cited as the reasons for having an adaptive, flexible and dynamic definition of GEnS. The wording had then changed in the final Directive to: ‘In view of the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems and their natural variability, and given that the pressures and impacts on them may vary with the evolvement of different patterns of human activity and the impact of climate change, it is essential to recognise that the determination

• f good environmental status may have to be adapted
• ver time.’

• 15. Prevent deterioration (R)
• 1. Vision/aim (to

achieve GEnS) (D)

• 16. Re-vision/revision
• 14. Perform

management (R)

• 4. Activities (A)
• 6. Pressures (Annex III)

(P)

• 12. Determine the

effect on society (I(W))

• 13. Programme of cost-

effective measures (R)

• 3. 11 Descriptors

(Annex I)

• 10. Monitoring programme

(to detect change against a target) (R)

• 11. Assess current

status cf. GEnS (S)

• 5. 29 Criteria
• 7. Decide pressure &

state indicators (as an aspiration)

• 8. Define index/metric /

method (SMART) to assess status/impact

• 9. Identify appropriate target/

baseline/reference (to be reached) for indicators and methods But CC is mentioned very little Need to account for moving baselines, to include inherent and increasing variability; hence signal:noise are more difficult to detect See text MSFD is related to EnMP and ExUP of inputs (e.g. nutrients) but excludes the ExUP of CC For targets for knowledge, pressure, state change & impact; need to ensure they can change/be adapted if required re. response to CC But are these realistic/ achievable if there are shifting baselines? But there could be exemptions if an indicator is not responsive or is masked by CC See text But the system is changing because of CC As box below but also need feedback loop to revise measures if not successful To control cause & consequence of EnMP but only consequences

• f ExUP

But there is the problem of assessing status and GEnS against shifting baselines due to CC

Caution because of climate change (CC) Step in MSFD implementation including DAPSI(W)R

• 2. Characteristics &

Initial Assessment (Art. 8; Annex I) But the characteristics are changing constantly although there are few long-term datasets Figure 1: A conceptual model of the implementation of the MSFD (inner blue circle) together with the areas for caution as the result of global climate change (red boxes) (see text).

• Art. 14 of MSFD and Art. 2 of WFD – not mee]ng GEnS or GEcS?

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a) action or inaction for which the Member State concerned is not responsible, b) natural causes, c) force majeure, d) modifications or alterations to the physical characteristics of marine waters brought about by actions taken for reasons of overriding public interest which outweigh the negative impact on the environment, including any transboundary impact, e) natural conditions which do not allow timely improvement in the status of the marine waters concerned.

So what? – the legal repercussions?

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2012 Assessment report baseline 2012 status with increased variability

Moving Baselines (MSFD)?

Fixed baseline 2012 Extended baseline Moving baseline?

2020 status 2032 status 2026 status 2038 status 2044 status 2050 status 2056 status 2062 status 2068 status

2074 status

Intra- and inter- annual variability in estuarine (juvenile) cod and whiting densities (1981-1989)

(Elliott et al 1990)

So where is the baseline and how is it changing because of a joint effect

• f the climate changing

and human impacts?

Impediments to achieving GEnS with regard to Climate Change (1)

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(1) We have a good conceptual science-base but poor precise links between changes in biota and climate features; (2) Climate change produces ‘shifting baselines’ which need to be accommodated in monitoring together with ‘unbounded boundaries’; (3) Despite budget cuts, more cost-effective spatial and temporal monitoring is required otherwise there is poor predictability; (4) ‘Wicked problem’ - determine GEnS on a Descriptor-by- Descriptor basis or by 2020 vs. aggregation; will an area be ‘unhealthy’ or just different; (5) Challenge of detecting local anthropogenic change against wide climate change;

Impediments to achieving GEnS with regard to Climate Change (2)

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(6) Climate change-induced geographical disparity to achieving GEnS; (7) How to resolve non-achieving GEnS for the Ecosystem Services and Societal Benefits against climate change; (8) Unknown unknowns – legal challenges if climate change treated as a force majeure? (9) Challenge of making the core generic RSC indicators SMART and robust to climate change? (10) Lessons are applicable to all seas and marine directives.

The Grand Premise and Challenge for marine science and management to achieving GEnS with regard to Climate Change:

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Premise: “changing systems are not a problem for the ecology as it will adjust to any new situation and create a new equilibrium, they are only a problem for society, i.e. we might not be able to obtain the societal benefits from ecosystem services that we wish to and we may not like the new ecology but eventually we will have to accept it”

www.devotes-project.eu

Grant agreement nº 308392

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstraZon under the grant agreement nº 308392

DEVOTES Final Conference, October 17-19 2016, Brussels

Challenge: “for management to deal with especially unpredictable exogenic unmanaged pressures when it cannot manage the causes but can only respond to the consequences, it has to realise what is manageable and what is not”