Landscapes in transition: Global and regional implications of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Landscapes in transition: Global and regional implications of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 04, 2023 411 likes •812 views

Landscapes in transition: Global and regional implications of post- Soviet land-use change Alexander Prishchepov 08/06/2019 2 About me 2014 - Associate Professor at the University of Copenhagen (Land system science)

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Landscapes in transition:

Alexander Prishchepov

Global and regional implications of post- Soviet land-use change

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About me

  • 2014 - Associate Professor at the University of

Copenhagen (Land system science)

  • 2014-co-affiliated Kazan Federal University, Steppe

institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

  • 2010-2014 post-Doc IAMO, Germany
  • 2004-2010 Ph. D. University of Wisconsin-Madison
  • Born and raised in St. Petersburg (Alma-mater Russian

State Hydrometeorological University)

  • Family name bears Belarussian routes :)

Research focus on sustainable land-use in transition economies

08/06/2019 2

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Socio-political changes

May have long-standing political and environmental implications

08/06/2019 3

Possible impact of Prussia, Russian Empire and Austro-Hungary subdivide of Poland Parliamentary elections in 2015 Weat yields

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Socio-political changes are not rare

  • Relaxing wheat production for Argentina by Spain
  • Accession to EU and Common Agricultural Policy
  • 1978 Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms in China
  • Long-standing effects of sanctions to North Korea, Iran

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Breakup of the Soviet Union and transition to market economy

  • Provides an interesting case
  • “Natural experiment” (J. Diamond)
  • Common starting point but different land-use

legacies

  • Multiple transition “trajectories”
  • Various impacts on landscapes

08/06/2019 5

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Outline of the Talk

  • Synthesize what we learned about the

impacts of FSU political and economic transition on landscapes

  • Global and regional impacts on

environmental processes

  • Existing research gaps

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Summary of transition across Former Soviet Union

  • Disintegration of state-

command system and guaranteed markets

  • Open market-economy

principles

  • Removal of subsidies
  • Both loss, but also new

employment opportunities

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Summary of the transition across Former Soviet Union

  • Transition means we expect some
  • utcome
  • Yet, the environmental outcomes

were not foreseen in the beginning

  • Multiple approaches how to

transition –outcomes ”success” and ”lost in transition” outcomes

Spring wildfires 2018 Dobrynin, Prishchepov 2018 Svoboda. org

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23 Feb 2010 Introduction to Remote Sensing

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Change in night-time lights intensity Proxy for Economic Activity

1992 to 2000

Source: www.ngdc.nooaa.gov/dmsp/

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Source: www.ngdc.nooaa.gov/dmsp/

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Implications to land use

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Massive land abandonment A drastic decrease of livestock and fodder crops

across FSU

1990 2000 2010

100% 50% 0%

Dynamic of livestock across FSU in FAO livestock units 1990=100%

Abandoned grassland alone- 41-123 Mha

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6/8/2019

13 Circa 2008

Active Agriculture Forest Abandoned Agriculture

Massive agricultural land abandonment

Alcantara et al. 2013, Environmental Research Letters

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Non-linear land-use change trajectories

  • ver time

Dynamics of sown areas across FSU 1990-2000

Prishchepov et al. in prep.

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Dynamics of sown areas across FSU 2000-2010

Non-linear land-use change trajectories

  • ver time

Prishchepov et al. in prep.

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A decrease of livestock pressure on grassland ecosystems

Example of distribution of grazing intensity in Kazakhstan

6/8/2019

Hankerson et al. 2012, PLOS One

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Cross-border regions highlight the differences

Prishchepov et al. 2012, Environmental Research Letters

Agricultural land abandonment from 1990 to 2000

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In sum

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18 Extent of cropland and grassland abandonment across former Soviet Union Abandoned cropland- 62 Mha Abandoned grassland- 41-123 Mha

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Abandonment results in defragmentation of landscapes, but also in polarization

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Example of steppe defragmentation in Kazakhstan

Kraemer et al. 2015, Environmental Research Letters

Over- exploiting remaining croplands

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Changing in logging patterns

predominantly a decrease

Potapov et al. 2016 RSE Baumann et al. 2012 RSE

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New forests on abandoned fields- novel ecosystems -30 Mha, defragmentation

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Proportion

  • f afforested

fields % Glushkov et al. In Preparation

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Groisman et al. (2017) Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

Yet, an increased logging in Vladimir, Arkhangelsk and some parts of Siberia Major export markets for Russian forest products

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The polarization processes –a decrease and fragmentation of intact forest landscapes across FSU due to logging and fires

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Potapov et al. 2017, Science Advances

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Global and regional implications in the teleconnected world

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Strong implications of abandonment to Carbon sink

  • One third of Russia’s CO2

emission due to industry and fossil fuels

Sources: Kurganova et al. 2014, Global Change Biology Schierhorn et al. 2013, Global Biogeochemical Cycles Schiermeier 2013, Nature News

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6/8/2019

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Assessment of carbon sequestration on abandoned lands across FSU 1990-2010

Prishchepov et al., in preparation

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6/8/2019

FSU became a global hotspot of soil and above ground biomass C sink

Mean annual change in aboveground biomass carbon between 1993 and 2012 Liu et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change

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..And a global greening hotspot too

de Jong et al. 2012, Global Change Biology

Positive NDVI trends in hotspots of abandonment

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Cascaded implications of land-use change via telecoupling

Beef exports from Brazil to Russia and imbedded CO2 emissions

1990 2000 2010

100% 50% 0%

Dynamic of livestock across FSU in FAO livestock units 1990=100%

Deforestation Abandonment Schierhorn et al. 2016 Global Food Security, Schierhorn et al. 2019, Environmental Research Letters

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Research gaps

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Lack of thematic LULCC products

  • LULCC is badly mapped so far
  • No uniform product on land abandonment and

change of land-use intensity exists so far

  • Except of Hansen (2013) and Potapov (2015) no

uniform map on forest logging exist as well

  • Urban dynamic has been missed as well

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A lack of understanding the drivers of change

Example land abandonment- we need to move beyond the myths

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Land-use change is a transition process

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Importance to find trade-offs between agricultural development and weighting up ecosystem services

Meyfroidt et al. 2016, Global Environmental Change

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alpr@ign.ku.dk

Thank you! Спасибо!

www.iltas.net Integrative Land Transformation Analysis Group