Initially Prepared Plan Initially Prepared Plan for the for the Panhandle Water Planning Area Panhandle Water Planning Area Amarillo, Texas Amarillo, Texas August 9, 2005 August 9, 2005 CONSULTANTS: CONSULTANTS: Freese and Nichols, Inc. Freese and Nichols, Inc. Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Texas Cooperative Extension Texas Cooperative Extension Bureau of Economic Geology Bureau of Economic Geology
Why Senate Bill One & Two? Why Senate Bill One & Two? •1995-1996 Drought •Sixth drought in 50 years •SB1 passed in 1997 • $6 Billion Estimated Economic Losses • Nearly 300 Entities with Threat to Water Supplies • Large cities suffered the least throughout the drought • Continued Drought in 2001 and beyond •SB2 passed in 2001
Interest Groups Represented Interest Groups Represented � Membership Includes: – Municipalities – Water Utilities – River Authorities – Water Districts – Counties – Industrial – Public – Small Business – Environmental – Agriculture – Electrical Generating – Higher Education Utilities
Members of the Panhandle Water Planning Group Members of the Panhandle Water Planning Group Interest Name Public Janet Guthrie Counties Judge Vernon Cook Dan Coffey Municipalities David Landis Industries Bill Hallerberg Denise Jett Agricultural Frank Simms Janet Tregellas B. A. Donelson Rudie Tate Grady Skaggs Environmental Dr. Nolan Clark Inge Brady Small Businesses Rusty Gilmore Elec. Generation Utilities Gale Henslee River Authorities Jim Derington Richard Bowers C. E. Williams Water Districts Bobbie Kidd John C. Williams Water Utilities Charles Cooke High Education John Sweeten
Water User Groups Water User Groups Water User Groups (WUGs) All Uses by City, County, River Basin & Region For each decade 2010-2060 � Manufacturing � Municipal � Steam Electric Power – Cities – County Other � Mining � Irrigation � Livestock
Request Adopted copy from December TWDB 12, 2001 by TWDB
What Goes Into a Regional Plan? What Goes Into a Regional Plan? • 50 year planning period • Determine Population and Water Demands • Determine Existing Supplies • Determine Water Surplus or Needs • Social & Economic Impact of Not Meeting Needs • Develop Plans to Meet Needs • Consideration of Conservation Efforts (SB2) • Evaluate Water Management Strategies to Meet Needs • Evaluate WMS impact on Water Quality (SB2) • Identify Ecologically Unique Streams and Rivers • Identify Unique Sites for Reservoir Construction • Propose Legislative Policy Recommendations
Irrigation Municipal 38% 36%
Surface Water Versus Groundwater Use Surface Water Versus Groundwater Use Greater than 55% groundwater 45 to 55% groundwater and surface water Greater than 55% surface water
Population and Water Use Population and Water Use 25,000,000 50,000,000 Water Use (AFY) 20,000,000 40,000,000 Population 15,000,000 30,000,000 10,000,000 20,000,000 5,000,000 10,000,000 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Water Use (1997 Plan) Water Use (2002 Plan) Water Use (2005 Plan) Population (TWDB-1997) Population (RWPG-2002) Population (RWPG 2004)
Planning Area Description Planning Area Description
Planning Area Description Planning Area Description 21 COUNTIES IN PWPA 21 COUNTIES IN PWPA - Armstrong - Hall - Ochiltree - Carson - Hansford - Oldham - Childress - Hartley - Potter - Collingsworth - Hemphill - Randall - Dallam - Hutchinson - Roberts - Donley - Lipscomb - Sherman - Gray - Moore - Wheeler
Planning Area Description Planning Area Description Population Projections Population Projections 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 SB1 SB2
Planning Area Description Planning Area Description Economy Economy � Economy � Major Water Use – Irrigation – Agribusiness – Agricultural Production – Manufacturing – Food Processing and Kindred – Petroleum – Petroleum Refining – Tourism – Chemical and Allied Products – Electric Power Generation
Planning Area Description Planning Area Description Surface Water Supplies Surface Water Supplies 35,000 30,000 25,000 Supply (AFY) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Meredith Palo Duro Greenbelt Run-of-the-River
Planning Area Description Planning Area Description Ground Water Supplies (1.25%) Ground Water Supplies (1.25%) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Supply (AFY) 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Ogallala Blaine Seymour
Senate Bill 1 vs. Senate Bill 2 Senate Bill 1 vs. Senate Bill 2 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 ount (ac-ft/yr) 2,000,000 1,500,000 Am 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 SB 1 Demand SB 2 Demand SB 1 Supplies SB 2 Supplies
Groundwater Availability Groundwater Availability Modeling Modeling � 1.25% Availability Management Policy � Future Conditions Simulation � Uncertainty in Results � 50-ft Intervals – White Denotes <50ft
1950 1950 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
1960 1960 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
1970 1970 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
1980 1980 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
1990 1990 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
2000 2000 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
2010 2010 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
2020 2020 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
2030 2030 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
2040 2040 OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA TEXAS TEXAS DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB DALLAM SHERMAN HANSFORD OCHILTREE LIPSCOMB HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL HARTLEY MOORE HUTCHINSON ROBERTS HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER OLDHAM POTTER CARSON GRAY WHEELER RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH RANDALL ARMSTRONG DONLEY COLLINGSWORTH
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