India TIMES Model (Electricity)- Key Inputs & Results South Asia - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Focus Group Discussion India TIMES Model (Electricity)- Key Inputs & Results

South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy Integration(SARI/EI) 1 July 2016 Central Electricity Authority, New Delhi

Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)

1

Contents

• Overview of SARI/EI
• Overview of TIMES Model
• India TIMES Model
• Structure of Energy System (Electricity) considered for Model
• Key Results
• Model Assumptions

• 1. SARI/EI is a long standing program of USAID started in the year 2000.
• 2. Program has consistently strived to address

energy security in South Asia by focusing 1) Cross Border EnergyTrade 2) Energy Market Formation and 3) Regional Clean Energy Development.

• 3. SARI/EI–Phase IV (2012-2017): Key Outcomes.

Three Key Development Outcomes:

• 1. Coordinate policy, legal and regulatory issues.
• 2. Advance transmission interconnections.
• 3. Establish South Asia Regional Electricity Markets.

First Three Year of the Program is Completed. IRADe- a regional organization, is implementing partner

Maldives Sri Lanka India Nepal Bangladesh Bhutan Afghanistan Pakistan 8 SAARC COUNTRIES

Overview SARI/EI Program: South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy Integration (SARI/EI)

TIMES MODEL

Key attributes of Times Model

• Bottom-Up Model Generator
• Uses linear-programming to produce least-cost energy system
• Optimizes over medium to long-term time horizons
• Assumes perfect foresight- all investment decisions are made in each

period with full knowledge of future events

In a nutshell, TIMES is used for "the exploration of possible energy futures based on contrasted scenarios"

TIMES objective function: Minimization of total system discounted cost including the useful value of plant at the end of model horizon Each year, the total cost includes: Capital Costs Fixed and variable annual Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Costs Exogenous imports and domestic resource production costs Exogenous exports revenues, etc

India TIMES Model Assumptions and General Settings

• Model Base year 2011-12
• Time horizon: 2012 to 2047 equal time period of 5 years
• The model solves simultaneously for every 5th year- 2012, 2017,

2022, 2027, 2032, 2037, 2042 and 2047

• Discount rate 4% (with 6% inflation this is equivalent to 10%)
• Constant price model at 2011-12 prices
• No Transmission Constraint assumed within the region

Time Sub-Periods/Time-slices and Energy Fraction Generation

• An Year is divided into sub-time periods or Time-slices to capture

the fluctuations within a day

• Each time-slice representing one hour of a day for each month i.e.

12 am to 1 am represents first time-slice, 1 am to 2 am represent second time-slice, and so on. Thus every month will have 24 time- slices.

• Total number of time-slices for an year is 288 i.e. 2304 time-slices

in the model horizon

• The model balances the demand and supply for each time-slice

India’s Monthly Average Demand for 2014-15

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 GWh Hour

April 2014

01-Apr-14 02-Apr-14 03-Apr-14 04-Apr-14 05-Apr-14 06-Apr-14 07-Apr-14 08-Apr-14 09-Apr-14 10-Apr-14 11-Apr-14 12-Apr-14 13-Apr-14 14-Apr-14 15-Apr-14 16-Apr-14 17-Apr-14 18-Apr-14 19-Apr-14 20-Apr-14 21-Apr-14 22-Apr-14 23-Apr-14 24-Apr-14 25-Apr-14 26-Apr-14 27-Apr-14 28-Apr-14 29-Apr-14 30-Apr-14 Hourly Average

Time Slice Hourly Average Energy

India’s Monthly Average Demand for 2014-15

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 APR H01 APR H12 APR H23 MAY H10 MAY H21 JUNE H08 JUNE H19 JULY H06 JULY H17 AUG H04 AUG H15 SEPT H02 SEPT H13 SEPT H24 OCT H11 OCT H22 NOV H09 NOV H20 DEC H07 DEC H18 JAN H05 JAN H16 FEB H03 FEB H14 MAR H01 MAR H12 MAR H23 MW Maximum Demand: 1,28,682 MW Minimum Demand: 97,920 MW

Structure of Energy System (Electricity) Considered For India Model

Coal Dom & Imp Gas Dom & Imp Uranium Dom & Imp

Coal Power Plants- Sub-Critical, Super-Critical, USPC, IGCC Gas Power Plants- Gas OC, Gas CC Nuclear Power Plants- LWR, PHWR

Diesel

Diesel Power Plants Wind Power Plants- Onshore, Off-shore Solar Power Plants- PV & thermal -with & Without storage Hydro Power Plants Bio Power Plants Small Hydro Power Plants Transmission & Distribution Network Electricity Demand

Renewable

Key Parameters for T echnology Modelling:

• Power plant efficiencies &

availability factors

• Costs: Capex, Fixed O&M

and Fuel Cost

• Capacity bounds and other

user defined alternatives

• Fuels Indigenous availability

Elements of India’s Modeling Scenario

• INDC targets as per GoI have been considered viz.
• Target of 175 GW RE power generation capacity by 2022
• Minimum 40% Non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.
• After 2030, Non-fossil fuel capacity assumed to increase by 5%

every 5 years to reach 55% by 2047

• Maximum Solar Energy Potential of 748 GW
• Maximum On-shore Wind Potential of 302 GW @ 120 m mast

height

India Model Outputs- No Trade Scenario using demand from IRADe’s Macro Model

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Base Case without Trade for India: Installed Capacity & Electricity generation

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

264 408 538 776 1059 1509 2116 1274 1652 2254 3218 4597 6516 8497 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Generation (BU) Installed Capacity (GW)

Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP Total Generation

1274 1652 2254 3218 4597 6516 8497

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 BU

Generation (BU) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP Total

Electricity Generation: India-Without Trade Year Wise (BU)

Share of Fossil and Non-Fossil

% share in Installed Capacity 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Fossil 60% 39% 39% 37% 41% 38% 37% Non-fossil 40% 61% 61% 63% 59% 62% 63% Renewable share 19% 44% 44% 40% 40% 48% 53% % share in Electricity Generation 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Fossil 73% 60% 59% 55% 59% 56% 48% Non-fossil 27% 40% 41% 45% 41% 44% 52% Renewable share 9% 22% 23% 21% 21% 30% 39%

Average monthly generation & Annual Generation India Model Results-(Without trade)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

50 100 150 200 250 JAN H01 JAN H03 JAN H05 JAN H07 JAN H09 JAN H11 JAN H13 JAN H15 JAN H17 JAN H19 JAN H21 JAN H23 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

T ypical One Day Generation in January 2022 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Hydro Solar PV

Gas CC

Nuclear Wind On

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP Total 2022 138 20 1 16 51 100 61 10 10 408

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 JAN H01 JAN H03 JAN H05 JAN H07 JAN H09 JAN H11 JAN H13 JAN H15 JAN H17 JAN H19 JAN H21 JAN H23 GWh Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Typical One Day Renewable Generation in January 2022 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Solar PV Wind On SHP

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2022 138 20 1 16 51 100 61 10 10 408

50 100 150 200 250 JUNE H01 JUNE H02 JUNE H03 JUNE H04 JUNE H05 JUNE H06 JUNE H07 JUNE H08 JUNE H09 JUNE H10 JUNE H11 JUNE H12 JUNE H13 JUNE H14 JUNE H15 JUNE H16 JUNE H17 JUNE H18 JUNE H19 JUNE H20 JUNE H21 JUNE H22 JUNE H23 JUNE H24 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

T ypical One Day Generation in June 2022 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Hydro Solar PV Gas CC Nuclear Wind On

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2022 138 20 1 16 51 100 61 10 10 408

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

JUNE H01 JUNE H02 JUNE H03 JUNE H04 JUNE H05 JUNE H06 JUNE H07 JUNE H08 JUNE H09 JUNE H10 JUNE H11 JUNE H12 JUNE H13 JUNE H14 JUNE H15 JUNE H16 JUNE H17 JUNE H18 JUNE H19 JUNE H20 JUNE H21 JUNE H22 JUNE H23 JUNE H24

GWh Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Small Hydro Power Typical One Day Renewable Generation in June 2022 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Solar PV Wind On SHP

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2022 138 20 1 16 51 100 61 10 10 408

50 100 150 200 250 APR H01 APR H12 APR H23 MAY H10 MAY H21 JUNE H08 JUNE H19 JULY H06 JULY H17 AUG H04 AUG H15 SEPT H02 SEPT H13 SEPT H24 OCT H11 OCT H22 NOV H09 NOV H20 DEC H07 DEC H18 JAN H05 JAN H16 FEB H03 FEB H14 MAR H01 MAR H12 MAR H23 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind On Shore Wind Off Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Monthly Average- Electricity Generation (GWh) - 2022

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Hydro Solar PV Gas CC Nuclear Wind On

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2022 138 20 1 16 51 100 61 10 10 408

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 JAN H01 JAN H02 JAN H03 JAN H04 JAN H05 JAN H06 JAN H07 JAN H08 JAN H09 JAN H10 JAN H11 JAN H12 JAN H13 JAN H14 JAN H15 JAN H16 JAN H17 JAN H18 JAN H19 JAN H20 JAN H21 JAN H22 JAN H23 JAN H24 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Typical One Day Generation in January 2032 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Coal USC Hydro Solar PV Gas OC Nuclear Wind On

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2032 246 39 1 34 145 131 136 23 20 776

Gas CC

20 40 60 80 100 120

JAN H01 JAN H02 JAN H03 JAN H04 JAN H05 JAN H06 JAN H07 JAN H08 JAN H09 JAN H10 JAN H11 JAN H12 JAN H13 JAN H14 JAN H15 JAN H16 JAN H17 JAN H18 JAN H19 JAN H20 JAN H21 JAN H22 JAN H23 JAN H24

GWh Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Small Hydro Power Typical One Day Renewable Generation in January 2032 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Solar PV Wind On SHP

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2032 246 39 1 34 145 131 136 23 20 776

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 JUNE H01 JUNE H02 JUNE H03 JUNE H04 JUNE H05 JUNE H06 JUNE H07 JUNE H08 JUNE H09 JUNE H10 JUNE H11 JUNE H12 JUNE H13 JUNE H14 JUNE H15 JUNE H16 JUNE H17 JUNE H18 JUNE H19 JUNE H20 JUNE H21 JUNE H22 JUNE H23 JUNE H24 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Typical One Day Generation in June 2032 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Coal Sub C. Coal SC

Coal USC Hydro Solar PV Nuclear Wind On

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2032 246 39 1 34 145 131 136 23 20 776

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

JUNE H01 JUNE H02 JUNE H03 JUNE H04 JUNE H05 JUNE H06 JUNE H07 JUNE H08 JUNE H09 JUNE H10 JUNE H11 JUNE H12 JUNE H13 JUNE H14 JUNE H15 JUNE H16 JUNE H17 JUNE H18 JUNE H19 JUNE H20 JUNE H21 JUNE H22 JUNE H23 JUNE H24

GWh

Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Small Hydro Power

Typical One Day Renewable Generation in June 2032 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Solar PV Wind On SHP

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2032 246 39 1 34 145 131 136 23 20 776

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 APR H01 APR H11 APR H21 MAY H07 MAY H17 JUNE H03 JUNE H13 JUNE H23 JULY H09 JULY H19 AUG H05 AUG H15 SEPT H01 SEPT H11 SEPT H21 OCT H07 OCT H17 NOV H03 NOV H13 NOV H23 DEC H09 DEC H19 JAN H05 JAN H15 FEB H01 FEB H11 FEB H21 MAR H07 MAR H17 GWh

Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Monthly Average-Electricity Generation (GWh) - 2032

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Coal USC Hydro Solar PV Gas OC Nuclear Wind On

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2032 246 39 1 34 145 131 136 23 20 776

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 JAN H01 JAN H03 JAN H05 JAN H07 JAN H09 JAN H11 JAN H13 JAN H15 JAN H17 JAN H19 JAN H21 JAN H23 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar PV Solar Thermal With Storage Wind On Shore Wind Off Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Typical One Day Generation in January 2042 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Coal Sub C. Coal SC Coal USC Hydro Solar PV Gas OC Nuclear Wind On Solar Th Stg

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2042 502 69 62 145 371 317 23 20 1509

50 100 150 200 250 300

JAN H01 JAN H03 JAN H05 JAN H07 JAN H09 JAN H11 JAN H13 JAN H15 JAN H17 JAN H19 JAN H21 JAN H23

GWh

Solar PV Solar Thermal With Storage Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Small Hydro Power

Typical One Day Renewable Generation in January 2042 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Solar PV Wind On SHP Solar Th Stg

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2042 502 69 62 145 371 317 23 20 1509

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar PV Solar Thermal With Storage Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Typical One Day Generation in June 2042 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Coal Sub C. Coal SC

Coal USC Hydro Solar PV Nuclear Wind On Solar Th Stg

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2042 502 69 62 145 371 317 23 20 1509

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 GWh

Solar PV Solar Thermal With Storage Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Small Hydro Power

Typical One Day Renewable Generation in June 2042 (GWh)

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Solar PV Wind On SHP Solar Th Stg

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2042 502 69 62 145 371 317 23 20 1509

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 APR H01 APR H12 APR H23 MAY H10 MAY H21 JUNE H08 JUNE H19 JULY H06 JULY H17 AUG H04 AUG H15 SEPT H02 SEPT H13 SEPT H24 OCT H11 OCT H22 NOV H09 NOV H20 DEC H07 DEC H18 JAN H05 JAN H16 FEB H03 FEB H14 MAR H01 MAR H12 MAR H23 GWh Diesel Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage Solar PV Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore Hydro Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear-PHWR

Monthly Average-Electricity Generation (GWh) - 2042

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Coal Sub C. Coal SC

Coal USC Hydro Solar PV Gas OC Nuclear Wind On Solar Th Stg

I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T

• tal

2042 502 69 62 145 371 317 23 20 1509

Coal Capacity Ramping

Year 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Coal Installed Capacity (GW) 138 186 186 246 387 502 493

• Max. Ramp up

GW per Hour 25 28 28 44 92 127 148

• Max. Ramp

Down GW per Hour 25 22 22 44 90 127 127

• Max. Ramp up

MW per Min 423 470 470 739 1535 2114 2465

• Max. Ramp

Down MW per Min 423 369 369 739 1496 2112 2112

Coal Capacity Ramping

Capacity Ramping (in MW per min) as % of T

• tal Installed Coal Capacity

Change in Ramping up 0.31% 0.25% 0.25% 0.30% 0.40% 0.42% 0.50% Change in Ramping Down 0.31% 0.20% 0.20% 0.30% 0.39% 0.42% 0.43% Capacity Ramping (in GW per hour) as % of T

• tal Installed Coal Capacity

Change in Ramping up 18% 15% 15% 18% 24% 25% 30% Change in Ramping Down 18% 12% 12% 18% 23% 25% 26% Year 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Coal Installed Capacity (GW) 138 186 186 246 387 502 493

India TIMES Model Assumptions

Capital and O&M Cost Assumed- 2012 price level

T echnology Capex 2012 (INR Cr/ MW) O&M 2012 (INR Lakh/ MW) Coal Sub-Critical 4.8 12 Coal Super-Critical 5.3 13 Coal Ultra Super Critical 6.1 15 Coal IGCC 10.0 25 Gas-Open Cycle 2.25 3.4 Gas Combined Cycle 3.6 9.0 Nuclear Light Water Reactor 21 52 Nuclear Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor 8.3 20 Wind- On-Shore 6 9 Wind- Off-Shore 18 13 Large Hydro 9.5 31 Small Hydro Plants 6.5 20 Bio Power Plants 4.5 18 T echnology Capex 2012 (INR Cr/ MW) Capex 2047 (INR Cr/ MW) O&M 2012 (INR Lakh/ MW) O&M 2047 (INR Lakh/ MW) Solar PV- without Storage 8 3.3 12 4 Solar PV- with Storage 16.5 (2017) 9.8 41.14 (2017) 24.51 Solar Thermal- without Storage 12 7.7 15 9.5 Solar Thermal- with Storage 19.2 10.7 24 13.4

• For Solar- Assuming

T echnological cost reduction

Fuel Cost- 2012 price level

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

Fuel Price Cal. Value Domestic coal 1317 INR per ton 3541 Kcal/Kg Imported Coal 5119 INR per ton 5500 Kcal/Kg Biomass 2.4 INR per Kg 3752 Kcal/Kg Domestic Natural Gas 8.387 INR per SCM 10000 Kcal/SCM Imported LNG 10 USD/MMBTU 10000 Kcal/SCM Natural Uranium 7.47 INR Cr/Ton (excluding enrichment cost)

Plant Life Assumed

Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only

T echnology Plant Life Assumed (in Years) Nuclear Power Plants 50 Hydro Plants 50 Coal based power plants 40 Gas Based Power Plants 40 Small Hydro Power Plants 35 Solar Based Power Plants 25 Wind Based Power Plants 25 Bio Power Plants 20

Levelized Cost of Electricity (in INR per kWh)

• LCOE at 2012 price levels
• Capex, O&M, Fuel Cost and Plant Life as shared in previous slides

T echnology 4% discount rate 10% discount rate 10% discount rate with plant life of 25 years Sub Critical Coal Plant- Domestic Fuel 1.55 1.88 1.93 Super Critical Coal Plant- Domestic Fuel 1.39 1.75 1.81 Ultra Super Critical Coal Plant- Domestic Fuel 1.36 1.78 1.84 IGCC Coal Plant- Domestic Fuel 1.72 2.41 2.52 Sub Critical Coal Plant- Imported Fuel 3.15 3.48 3.53 Super Critical Coal Plant- Imported Fuel 2.67 3.04 3.09 Ultra Super Critical Coal Plant- Imported Fuel 2.48 2.90 2.96 IGCC Coal Plant- Imported Fuel 2.77 3.46 3.57 Open Cycle Gas Plant-Domestic Fuel 2.12 2.28 2.30 Combine Cycle Gas Plant- Domestic Fuel 1.68 1.92 1.96 Open Cycle Gas Plant-Imported Fuel 5.66 5.81 5.84 Combine Cycle Gas Plant- Imported Fuel 4.09 4.34 4.37 Hydro Plant 2.14 3.62 3.87 SHP 1.64 2.64 2.77 Solar PV Plant 3.99 6.32 6.32 Solar PV with Storage 4.96 7.53 7.53 Solar Thermal 5.80 9.29 9.29 Solar Thermal with Stg 4.55 7.29 7.29 Bio Power 1.17 1.62 1.54

Levelized Cost of Electricity-2012 price levels (in INR per kWh)

1.55 1.39 1.36 1.72 3.15 2.67 2.48 2.77 2.12 1.68 5.66 4.09 2.14 1.64 3.99 4.96 5.80 4.55 1.17 1.88 1.75 1.78 2.41 3.48 3.04 2.90 3.46 2.28 1.92 5.81 4.34 3.62 2.64 6.32 7.53 9.29 7.29 1.62 1.93 1.81 1.84 2.52 3.53 3.09 2.96 3.57 2.30 1.96 5.84 4.37 3.87 2.77 6.32 7.53 9.29 7.29 1.54

2 4 6 8 10 Sub Critical Coal Plant- Domestic Fuel Super Critical Coal Plant- Domestic Fuel Ultra Super Critical Coal Plant- Domestic Fuel IGCC Coal Plant- Domestic Fuel Sub Critical Coal Plant- Imported Fuel Super Critical Coal Plant- Imported Fuel Ultra Super Critical Coal Plant- Imported Fuel IGCC Coal Plant- Imported Fuel Open Cycle Gas Plant-Domestic Fuel Combine Cycle Gas Plant- Domestic Fuel Open Cycle Gas Plant-Imported Fuel Combine Cycle Gas Plant- Imported Fuel Hydro Plant SHP Solar PV Plant Solar PV with Storage Solar Thermal Solar Thermal with Stg Bio Power LCOE INR/kWh Technology

10% discount rate with all plant life of 25 years 10% discount rate 4% discount rate

PLF/CUF Assumed

Monthly PLF/CUF T echnology Annual PLF/CUF Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Hydro 40% 35% 43% 46% 52% 62% 61% 42% 30% 28% 28% 26% 34% SHP 40.71% 35% 44% 47% 53% 63% 62% 43% 31% 28% 28% 27% 34% Bio Power 50% Nuclear 80% Gas CC 55% (Lower Bound)- 85% (Upper Bound) Coal 55% (Lower Bound)- 85% (Upper Bound) Wind- On Shore 21.18% Modelled at Hourly Level Wind- Off Shore 33% Modelled at Hourly Level Solar PV without Storage 18% Modelled at Hourly Level Solar PV with Storage 37% Modelled at Hourly Level Solar Thermal without Storage 18% Modelled at Hourly Level Solar Thermal with Storage 37% Modelled at Hourly Level

Thank You