Energy system model Technology-oriented, bottom-up optimization model Perfect foresight Objective: Minimization of total costs (optimization model) Modelling period 2010 – 2050 12 time segments (four seasonal and three daily time segments) 31 Regions model (EU 28, Norway, Switzerland, Baden- Württemberg) Co s t- a nd E m issi on s b ala n ces Interregional exchange processes (electricity, biofuels) I ndu s t r y Co al r e f i n e m e nt N e t p r od . val u e R e n e w a b les H ea t P r o cess Country-specific segmentation of the power generation R es ou r ce availa b ili t y R e f i n e r ies e n e r g y Coo li ng D e m a nd D r ive r s E n e r g y p r ices, H ea t e d s p ace sector, households, commerce, industry and transport H y d r o po w e r Co mm e r ce Do m es t ic P opu la t i on And photo v o l t aics s upp ly o r H ea t L i ght i ng p r odu c t i on Emissions: Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) Coo li ng P o w e r a nd Co mm un ica t i o n h ea t i ng p la nt s Hou se ho l d s M ec h a n ical Sector-based: public and industrial energy supply, e n e r g y H ea t E lec t r ici t y - a nd Coo li ng P asse ng e r D is t r ic t h ea t kil o m e t e r s industry, households, GHD, transport, agriculture and T r a n s po r t Ton kil o m e t e r s I m po r t refineries G as D is t r i but i on Ag r ic u l tu r e P r i m a r y e n e r g y F i n al e n e r g y D e m a nd
– evocation to avoid the waterbed effect, calculated against scenario “REF”
main part of this study carried out shortly before publication of the results of the coal commission Comparable pathways until 2025 smiliar end dates Slightly lower capacities in 2030 – 2035 Additional analysis showed no significant differences between pathways
scenarios to achieve climate protection goals scenario with , as KSP90 is achieved in the end use sectors achieve total quantities in the transformation sector After , however, (all power plants shut down) - residual emissions from natural gas power plants and refineries
of the existing hard coal-fired power plants is . Use of power plants is also . National protection for the energy industry are nevertheless being . , the expected per decommissioned capacity by the rebound (coal).
Additional generation from renewables (RES) and higher certificate prices (CR) have a in the transformation sector Coal phase out thus a measure Still the years and
Withdrawal from coal (CEX-Q) leads to pronounced use of of the use of natural gas (CEX-Q+) leads to natural gas
Stable sales or interim high from 2025 to 2040 (CEX-Q/CEX-Q+) Gradual decline (COP/COP+)
National shift production to neighbouring countries Massive Increasing the ETS price through simultaneous expansion of can provide a more
Long-term with rising trend in 2050 Increasing renewable energy use across all scenarios: Solar & wind and geothermal energy – except when compensated for by CO2 price or accompanying measures Higher in plus scenarios
Not included are the lost revenues due to the certificate revocation externalities e.g. environmental or climate damage not taken into account
Vielen Dank! E -M a il T e l efon + 49 ( 0 ) 711 685 - F a x + 49 ( 0 ) 711 685 - U n iv e rsi tät S tuttga r t
Ko s t e n- und E m issi on s b ila nz ie r ung I ndu s t r ie Koh leve r e d el ung B i o m asse - N e tto- N ac h f ra g e b es t imme nd e Gr öß e n R ess ou rce n ver f ügb arkei t ve r fügb a r kei t p r odu k t i on s w e r t W ä r m e R a ff i n e r ie Energieträgerpreise, K äl t e P r oz esse n e r g ie G HD W asse r k r a ft und B e h ei zt e F läc h e I n la nd s - P hoto v o l t aik Fö r d e r ung W ä r m e B ev ö lke r ung Bz w . K äl t e - a uf k o mm e n L ic ht K r a ft w e r ke und H ei z k r a ft w e r ke H a u s h al t e Ko mm un ika t i on W ä r m e K r a ft S t r o m - und K äl t e P e r s on e n- F e r n w ä r m eve r t . kil o m e t e r V e r ke h r I m po r t Tonn e n- G asve r t eil ung kil o m e t e r L a nd w i r t sc h a ft P r i m ä r e n e r g ie E nd e n e r g ie N ac hf r a g e
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