Importance of incorporating ecosystem services within the context of social-ecological systems Lawrence (Larry) A. Kapustka, Ph.D LK Consultancy Turner Valley, Alberta kapustka@xplornet.com National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, & Medicine Committee on the Potential for Biotechnology to Address Forest Health Public Meeting #3 5 April 2018 Washington, DC
Themes Ecological-Sociological Constructs for Sustainability Ecological Risk Assessment with a Landscape Perspective (Scale Issues) Hierarchical Constraints (Understanding Emergent Properties) Adverse Outcome Pathways and – omics Conceptual Models and Bayesian Networks Cautions of Predicting Futures and the Need for Active Adaptive Management
Interrelationships within Socio-ecological Systems Ecological System Social System Maintain diversity and redundancy Foster an understanding of social- ecological systems as complex Manage connectivity adaptive systems Manage slow variables and Encourage learning and feedbacks experimentation Broaden participation Promote polycentric governance systems Biggs R, Schlüter M, Schoon ML. 2015. Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems . Cambridge University Press, 290 pp.
Ideals for the Risk Framework 4 Structured approach to identify stakeholder issues and values Builds values into project-specific conceptual model Links values to activities in the context of the ecological setting Places values in proper time and space relationships Organizes information into scenarios Evaluates likelihood of scenarios being realized Informs decisions Pertaining to Trade-offs Explicitly describes uncertainty (quantitative and qualitative) Structures triggers for active adaptive management
U.S.EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Framework Data Acquisition; Verification and Monitoring Discussion PROBLEM FORMULATION Between the Risk Assessor and Risk Manager (Planning) A N A Characterization Characterization L of of Y Exposure S Effects I S RISK CHARACTERIZATION Discussion Between the Risk Assessor and Risk Manager (Results) Risk Management Source: US EPA Risk Assessment Forum 1992
New Directions in Ecological Risk Assessment Shift toward integrated, holistic approaches to frame and analyze ecological systems. One Health – integration of human health and ecological systems addressed holistically Landscape Perspective – Considers the connectivity and interactions among communities (also requires holistic approach) Ecosystem Services as Endpoints – Uses a systems perspective to examine multiple components within the sociological-ecological landscape with a focus on the stocks and flows of ecological services (i.e., those things that are beneficial to human societies) Genomics – allows detailed interrogation of a system to identify community composition (primarily using DNA extracted from the medium such as water, sediment, or soil) and function (primarily using RNA to identify which genes are being expressed) Adverse Outcome Pathways – attempts to build weight of evidence and causal linkages from molecular dynamics to the input into population models. [Note that some purport to bridge from molecule to population, but really it only reaches the point of having plausible data to put into individual- based population models.] Bayesian Network Models to establish probability of alternative outcomes and address causality
Problem Formulation Lowered Rootstock Vigour Understand management goals and decision space Aim is to keep orchard trees Identify Receptors consistent with management goals • short to facilitate harvest Develop a Conceptual Model Challenge of weakened • Select Assessment Endpoints anchoring Define Data Quality Objectives Enhanced Frost Tolerance Select Measurement Endpoints Aim is to increase the range • Insect Resistance (Bt) of trees (e.g., Eucalyptus Prepare Sampling and Analysis Plan species) Resist insect infestation • Prepare Quality Assurance Plan Questions of introducing • Concerns of gene transfer • exotic species and and creating “super accompanying “hitchhiker” weeds” Lignin Modification species Aim is to reduce pulping costs and use • Accelerated Growth of hazardous chemicals in bleaching Aim is to reduce time to harvest (heading toward • processes thereby lowering associated 5-year cycle) and increase yield contamination Challenge to maintain soil fertility in the face of • Challenges in compromised structural • increased water and nutrient demand integrity, increased susceptibility to Disease Resistance pathogens leading to increased need for pesticides Elm, Chestnut in hope of re-establishing that have been • lost in wild conditions Challenge of displacing species that have filled the • ecological void
Conceptual Model (CM): 8 a critical part of the risk framework focus A pictorial/narrative description of how the project, stressor, or event is perceived to work in the specific ecological setting Proper consideration time and space scales of project and surroundings Humans and human activities part of the ecological system Individual values (issues) arranged into linkage diagrams compatible with modelling efforts
The Hardest Part – reaching an agreed CM The overarching goal in building a conceptual model, is to effectively communicate an agreed understanding of the ecological-sociological setting and how the substance, project, or policy will influence that system. Like all wicked problems, reaching the agreed understanding must be negotiated anew for each situation, and as new information or insights are obtained, the CM will require modification As the process unfolds, a touchstone focus should be directed toward agreement on what constitutes success and maintains open channels of dialogue to address new insights and shifting values
Biosphere Biome An Introductory Biology Fallacy Community Species Population Organism Organ Emergent Properties Thwart Attempts at Linear Modelling Tissue Hierarchical Patch Dynamics Context Cell Organelle Level of Interest Molecule Mechanism Atom
Ecotoxicology Organismal approach Eco-systemic approach Toxicology Ecology Organisms Community (Physiological (Structure, diversity, parameters: mortality, energy transfer DNA-RNA efficiency, stability,…) morbidity, reproductive Membrane receptors success, mutation) Key enzymes Xenobiotic introduction Ecosystem effects Site of action Population Molecules Cells (Density, productivity, mating success, (Biotransformation (Biochemical competitive alterations parameters) parameters) Historical traits, non-linearity, chaotic Inheritable genome, homeostasy behaviour around attractors
An Approach to Mechanistic Toxicology Tracing the causal chain from molecular interactions to organism-and population-level effects Source: Ankley et al. 2010. Adverse outcome pathways: A conceptual framework to support ecotoxicology research and risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 29:730-741.
The Ultimate Goal: Explicit Linkage of Suborganismal Effects to Population Effects As of yet, there is no robust model capable of predicting real- world population responses. Emergent properties of populations confound predictions. [births, deaths, immigration, emigration, influenced by compensatory feedback loops] Source: Kramer et al. 2011. Adverse outcome pathways and ecological risk assessment: Bridging to population ‐ level effects. Environ Toxicol Chem 30:64-76
Interrelationships within Socio-ecological Systems Ecological System Social System Maintain diversity and redundancy Foster an understanding of social- ecological systems as complex Manage connectivity adaptive systems Manage slow variables and Encourage learning and feedbacks experimentation Broaden participation Promote polycentric governance systems Biggs R, Schlüter M, Schoon ML. 2015. Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems . Cambridge University Press, 290 pp.
15 Negative also Dampening - c d n A B Area a f b Feedback a b e Feedback Loop Loop Time + Multiple, nested feedback loops operating on Positive also Reinforcing different temporal and spatial scales.
1,000,000 100,000 10,000 Area (ha) 1,000 100 10 organism 1 Time (yr) Kapustka L. 2008. Limitations of the current practices used to perform Adapted from Kapustka L. 2008. Limitations of the current practices used to perform ecological risk ecological risk assessment. Integrated Environ. Assess Management 4:290-298 assessment. Integrated Environ. Assess Management 4:290-298.
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