Importance of incorporating ecosystem services within the context - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Importance of incorporating ecosystem services within the context

• f social-ecological systems

Lawrence (Larry) A. Kapustka, Ph.D LK Consultancy Turner Valley, Alberta kapustka@xplornet.com

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, & Medicine Committee on the Potential for Biotechnology to Address Forest Health Public Meeting #3 5 April 2018 Washington, DC

Themes

 Ecological-Sociological Constructs for Sustainability  Ecological Risk Assessment with a Landscape Perspective (Scale Issues)  Hierarchical Constraints (Understanding Emergent Properties)  Adverse Outcome Pathways and –omics  Conceptual Models and Bayesian Networks  Cautions of Predicting Futures and the Need for Active Adaptive Management

Interrelationships within Socio-ecological Systems Ecological System

 Maintain diversity and redundancy  Manage connectivity  Manage slow variables and feedbacks

Social System

 Foster an understanding of social- ecological systems as complex adaptive systems  Encourage learning and experimentation  Broaden participation  Promote polycentric governance systems

Biggs R, Schlüter M, Schoon ML. 2015. Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems. Cambridge University Press, 290 pp.

Ideals for the Risk Framework

 Structured approach to identify stakeholder issues and values  Builds values into project-specific conceptual model

 Links values to activities in the context of the ecological setting  Places values in proper time and space relationships

 Organizes information into scenarios  Evaluates likelihood of scenarios being realized  Informs decisions

 Pertaining to Trade-offs  Explicitly describes uncertainty (quantitative and qualitative)  Structures triggers for active adaptive management

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PROBLEM FORMULATION

A N A L Y S I S

RISK CHARACTERIZATION

Data Acquisition; Verification and Monitoring Characterization

• f

Exposure Characterization

• f

Effects

Risk Management

Discussion Between the Risk Assessor and Risk Manager (Results)

Discussion Between the Risk Assessor and Risk Manager (Planning)

Source: US EPA Risk Assessment Forum 1992

U.S.EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Framework

New Directions in Ecological Risk Assessment

Shift toward integrated, holistic approaches to frame and analyze ecological systems.  One Health – integration of human health and ecological systems addressed holistically  Landscape Perspective – Considers the connectivity and interactions among communities (also requires holistic approach)  Ecosystem Services as Endpoints – Uses a systems perspective to examine multiple components within the sociological-ecological landscape with a focus on the stocks and flows of ecological services (i.e., those things that are beneficial to human societies)  Genomics – allows detailed interrogation of a system to identify community composition (primarily using DNA extracted from the medium such as water, sediment, or soil) and function (primarily using RNA to identify which genes are being expressed)  Adverse Outcome Pathways – attempts to build weight of evidence and causal linkages from molecular dynamics to the input into population models. [Note that some purport to bridge

from molecule to population, but really it only reaches the point of having plausible data to put into individual- based population models.]

 Bayesian Network Models to establish probability of alternative outcomes and address causality

Problem Formulation

Understand management goals and decision space Identify Receptors consistent with management goals Develop a Conceptual Model Select Assessment Endpoints Define Data Quality Objectives Select Measurement Endpoints Prepare Sampling and Analysis Plan Prepare Quality Assurance Plan Lignin Modification

• Aim is to reduce pulping costs and use
• f hazardous chemicals in bleaching

processes thereby lowering associated contamination

• Challenges in compromised structural

integrity, increased susceptibility to pathogens leading to increased need for pesticides

Enhanced Frost Tolerance

• Aim is to increase the range
• f trees (e.g., Eucalyptus

species)

• Questions of introducing

exotic species and accompanying “hitchhiker” species

Lowered Rootstock Vigour

• Aim is to keep orchard trees

short to facilitate harvest

• Challenge of weakened

anchoring

Accelerated Growth

• Aim is to reduce time to harvest (heading toward

5-year cycle) and increase yield

• Challenge to maintain soil fertility in the face of

increased water and nutrient demand

Disease Resistance

• Elm, Chestnut in hope of re-establishing that have been

lost in wild conditions

• Challenge of displacing species that have filled the

ecological void

Insect Resistance (Bt)

• Resist insect infestation
• Concerns of gene transfer

and creating “super weeds”

Conceptual Model (CM):

a critical part of the risk framework focus A pictorial/narrative description of how the project, stressor, or event is perceived to work in the specific ecological setting  Proper consideration time and space scales of project and surroundings  Humans and human activities part of the ecological system  Individual values (issues) arranged into linkage diagrams compatible with modelling efforts

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The Hardest Part – reaching an agreed CM

 The overarching goal in building a conceptual model, is to effectively communicate an agreed understanding of the ecological-sociological setting and how the substance, project,

• r policy will influence that system.

 Like all wicked problems, reaching the agreed understanding must be negotiated anew for each situation, and as new information or insights are obtained, the CM will require modification  As the process unfolds, a touchstone focus should be directed toward agreement on what constitutes success and maintains

• pen channels of dialogue to address new insights and shifting

values

An Introductory Biology Fallacy

Molecule Atom Organelle Cell Tissue Organ Organism Population Species Community Biome Biosphere Hierarchical Patch Dynamics Level of Interest Context Mechanism Emergent Properties Thwart Attempts at Linear Modelling

Community

(Structure, diversity, energy transfer efficiency, stability,…)

Xenobiotic introduction

Site of action DNA-RNA Membrane receptors Key enzymes

Molecules

(Biotransformation parameters)

Cells

(Biochemical parameters)

Ecosystem effects Organisms

(Physiological parameters: mortality, morbidity, reproductive success, mutation)

Organismal approach Eco-systemic approach

Toxicology Ecology Ecotoxicology Population

(Density, productivity, mating success, competitive alterations

Inheritable genome, homeostasy Historical traits, non-linearity, chaotic behaviour around attractors

An Approach to Mechanistic Toxicology

Tracing the causal chain from molecular interactions to organism-and population-level effects

Source: Ankley et al. 2010. Adverse outcome pathways: A conceptual framework to support ecotoxicology research and risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 29:730-741.

The Ultimate Goal: Explicit Linkage of Suborganismal Effects to Population Effects

Source: Kramer et al. 2011. Adverse outcome pathways and ecological risk assessment: Bridging to population‐level

• effects. Environ Toxicol Chem 30:64-76

As of yet, there is no robust model capable

• f predicting real-

world population responses. Emergent properties of populations confound predictions. [births, deaths, immigration, emigration, influenced by compensatory feedback loops]

Interrelationships within Socio-ecological Systems Ecological System

 Maintain diversity and redundancy  Manage connectivity  Manage slow variables and feedbacks

Social System

 Foster an understanding of social- ecological systems as complex adaptive systems  Encourage learning and experimentation  Broaden participation  Promote polycentric governance systems

Biggs R, Schlüter M, Schoon ML. 2015. Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems. Cambridge University Press, 290 pp.

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Feedback Loop Feedback Loop a b

• +

Positive also Reinforcing Negative also Dampening

Time Area a b c d e f A B n Multiple, nested feedback loops operating on different temporal and spatial scales.

10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 1 Time (yr) Area (ha)

Kapustka L. 2008. Limitations of the current practices used to perform ecological risk assessment. Integrated Environ. Assess Management 4:290-298 Adapted from Kapustka L. 2008. Limitations of the current practices used to perform ecological risk

• assessment. Integrated Environ. Assess Management 4:290-298.
• rganism

The Answer is 42!

 “…[due to] the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error.”  A type III error is when a correct analysis is conducted but to the wrong question for establishing the cause (Schwartz and Carpenter 1999)

June 2017 Assessing Risks to Humans and the Environment

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Landis WG, Durda JL, Brooks ML, Chapman PM, Menzie CA, Stahl Jr RG, Stauber JL. 2013. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change. Environ Toxicol Chem 32:79-92. Schwartz S, Carpenter KM. 1999. The right answer for the wrong question: Consequences of type III error for public health

• research. Am J Public Health 89:1175–1180.

McCormick R, LA Kapustka. 2016. The Answer is 42… What is “THE” Question? J Environ Studies Science DOI 10.1007/s13412-016-0376-7

Ecosystem Services – sustainability

McCormick et al. 2012. Exploring SETAC’s Roles in the Global Dialogue on Sustainability—An Opening Debate Integr Environ Assess Manag 9:7-11

“Usable expressions (i.e., models) of the processes by which ecosystems produce ecosystem services, often including external influences on those processes…”

Ecosystem Ecosystem Services

ecological production function

How are EPFs defined?

Source: Van Wensem J, Calow P, Dollacker A, Maltby L, Olander L, Tuvendal M, Van Houtven G. 2017. Identifying and assessing the application of ecosystem services approaches in environmental policies and decision making. Integr Environ Manag Assess 13(1):41–51.

EPFs in an environmental management context and decision space

Greater need for EPFs in the assessment of chemicals in environmental management: agricultural pesticides as an example

In the spirit of managing forest lands for multiple uses, benefits and risks need to be considered holistically to account for the complexity of ecosystem services cherished by the diverse array of stakeholders.

Bruins RJF, Canfield TJ, Duke C, Kapustka L, Nahlik AM, Schäfer RB.

• 2017. Using ecological production functions to link ecological

processes to ecosystem services. Integr Environ Assess Manage 13:52-61.

The Relative Risk Model and Bayesian Networks

Bruce Marcot and colleagues have used Bayesian Networks to address forest management challenges for the past two decades.

Interrelationships within Socio-ecological Systems Ecological System

 Maintain diversity and redundancy  Manage connectivity  Manage slow variables and feedbacks

Social System

 Foster an understanding of social- ecological systems as complex adaptive systems  Encourage learning and experimentation  Broaden participation  Promote polycentric governance systems

Biggs R, Schlüter M, Schoon ML. 2015. Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems. Cambridge University Press, 290 pp.

“Mind Map” of System

Foci of most assessments

Principal features of community conditioning

 1. Ecological systems are complex, multidimensional, and dynamic  2. Equilibrium is never attained, one piece of the system may appear to be in stasis, but other parts of the system are in flux  3. Historical events determine current and future structures  4. Past conditions cannot be repeated  5. Forecasting future state of systems is tenuous

Matthews, R.A., Landis, W.G., and Matthews, G.B. 1996. The community conditioning hypothesis and its application to environmental toxicology. Environ. Toxicol. Chem., 15, 597–603.

Why humility should be front and centre when attempting to manipulate ecosystems.

Qualitatively an Impact?

From USGS website.

Additional References

 Kapustka LA, Landis WG (Eds.). 2010. Environmental Risk Assessment and Management from a Landscape Perspective. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, NY USA, 396pp.  Kapustka L, Froese K, McCormick R. 2010. Revisiting the Rationale for Holistic, Integrated Risk Assessments. Integrated Environ Assess Management 4:774-776  Kapustka LA, Landis WG. 1998. Ecology: the Science Versus the Myth. Human Ecol Risk Assess 4:829-838