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Incorporating Relative Importance selecting a polyphenol production - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Incorporating Relative Importance selecting a polyphenol production method for agro-waste treatment in an environmental and economic multi-criteria decision making context By: Joshua Sohn, Giovanna Croxatto Vega, Morten Birkved, Stig Irving

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Incorporating Relative Importance

selecting a polyphenol production method for agro-waste treatment in an environmental and economic multi-criteria decision making context

By: Joshua Sohn, Giovanna Croxatto Vega, Morten Birkved, Stig Irving Olsen

Presented by: Joshua Sohn

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Overview

  • Introduction to TEA and LCA
  • Introduction to MCDA
  • Application in the assessment of polyphenol

extraction technologies

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 2

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Techno-Economic Assessment - Introduction

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  • Capital

Expenses

  • Operational

Expenses

Economic model Production cost

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Life Cycle Assessment - Introduction

June 2019 4 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production

Photo: www.agc-glass.eu

Every process in the life cycle Emissions to Air Emissions to Land Emissions to Water Inputs

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Emission of Particles to Air Particles Blown by Wind to City Increased Airborne Particle Concentration in City Increase in Respiratory Disease Reduction in Life Expectancy

Life Cycle Assessment – Introduction Emissions: The Cause and Efgect Chain

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 5

Midpoint (Impacts) Endpoint (Damages)

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Life Cycle Assessment – Introduction The Uncertainty Trade-Ofg

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Least Uncertainty Most Uncertainty

Least Decision Support Most Decision Support We usually stop at midpoint… In part because the uncertanty

  • f the endpoints is too high…

But, this, along with the TEA, leaves us with the multiple criteria problem.

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Life Cycle Assessment – Introduction The multiple Criteria Problem

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  • Imp. 1
  • Imp. 2
  • Imp. 3
  • Imp. 4
  • Imp. 5

1 2 3 4 5 6

Idealized Comparison

System A System B System C

  • Imp. 1
  • Imp. 2
  • Imp. 3
  • Imp. 4
  • Imp. 5

1 2 3 4 5 6

Real Life

System A System B System C

Environmental Impact

?

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Multiple-Criteria Decision Assessment (MCDA)

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 8

Consistent Predictable Transparent Relevant

MCDA

Introduce impact relavance to make relavant decisions.

Photo: https://www.ministryinsights.com/interlocking-pieces/ Adapted from: Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Healthcare 2014.03.12 Kwon, Sunhong

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Introduction to MCDA: TOPSIS

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 9

Criterion 1 (e.g. GWP) Criterion 2 (e.g. Cost) Ideal Solution Alt.1 Alt.2 Alt.3 Anti-Ideal Solution The T echnique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution

  • Measures idealness:

minimizing the Euclidean distance to the ideal solution and maximizing Euclidean distance to the anti-ideal solution

  • Compensatory: good

performance in one criteria can compensate for poor performance in another

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Introduction to MCDA: TOPSIS

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 10

Criterion 1 (e.g. GWP) Criterion 2 (e.g. Cost) Ideal Solution Alt.1 Alt.2 Alt.3 Anti-Ideal Solution Alt.1 Alt.2 Alt.3 €3.26 €6.83 €2.4 (0.51) (0.72) (0.48) (0.09) (0.63) (0.90) TOPSIS But, what if criterion 2 had 10 times the efgect of criterion 1? Start with an assumption that both criteria are in Euros. Apply TOPSIS with equal weighting

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

MCDA – Criteria Weighting

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  • In order to correlate the multiple criteria, a weighting profjle is

introduced to relate the importance of each of the criteria with respect to the others

  • Personal/constituent values
  • Scientifjc consensus/modelling
  • Performance demands/thresholds
  • Etc.
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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

MCDA Application to Polyphenol Extraction

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Solvent Extraction Pressurized Liquid Extraction Acetone & Water Ethanol & Water Ethanol, Water & SCCO2 340 ton GA/y 290 ton GA/y 572 ton GA/y solvent ratio: 5 solvent ratio: 2 (dryer required) solvent ratio: 5 solvent ratio: 2 (dryer required) solvent ratio: 10 solvent ratio: 5 S-Acn-5 S-Acn-2 S-EtOH-5 S-EtOH-2 PLE-EtOH-10 PLE-EtOH-5

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t 0,00% 10,00% 20,00% 30,00% 40,00% 50,00% 60,00% 70,00% 80,00% 90,00% 100,00%

Internally Normalized Impacts

S-Acn-5 S-Acn-2 S-EtOH-5 S-EtOH-2 PLE-EtOH-10 PLE-EtOH-5

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

MCDA Application: weighting

  • Developed using relationship of environmental impacts to the emissions of an average

european

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 13 https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary- boundaries.html

Planetary boundaries are not yet developed such that they can be applied. RIF= relative importance factor, MI= Midpoint impact, NF= Normalization factor Normalized to the annual impact of the average European

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

MCDA Application: weighting

  • Developed using relationship of environmental impacts to the emissions of an average

european

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 14

Fine particulate matter formation Fossil resource scarcity Freshwater ecotoxicity Freshwater eutrophicatio n Global warming Human carcinogenic toxicity Human non- carcinogenic toxicity Ionizing radiation Land use Marine ecotoxicity Marine eutrophicatio n Mineral resource scarcity Ozone formation, Human health Ozone formation, Terrestrial ecosystems Stratospheric

  • zone

depletion Terrestrial acidification Terrestrial ecotoxicity Water consumption

12.83 276.36 183.72 86.75 58.98 59.26 3.93 28.40 0.61 161.97 0.86 0.004 23.98 28.77 2.05 21.34 42.57 7.62

Important Unimportant Fossile Resource Scarcity (276) Mineral Ressource Scarcity (0.004) Freshwater Ecotoxicity (183) Land Use (0.6) Marine Ecotoxicity (161) Marine Eutrophication (0.9) Freshwater Eutrophication (86) Stratospheric Ozone Depletion (2.0) Human Carcinogenic T

  • xicity (59)

Human Non-Carcinogenic T

  • xicity (3.9)

Global Warming (59) Water Consumption (7.6)

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

MCDA Application to Polyphenol Extraction

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 15 F i n e p a r t i c u l a t e m a t t e r f

  • r

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  • n

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  • n

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t 0,00% 10,00% 20,00% 30,00% 40,00% 50,00% 60,00% 70,00% 80,00% 90,00% 100,00%

Internally Normalized Impacts

S-Acn-5 S-Acn-2 S-EtOH-5 S-EtOH-2 PLE-EtOH-10 PLE-EtOH-5

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

MCDA Application to Polyphenol Extraction: Conclusions

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 16

Using MCDA allows for transparent delivery of decision support Introducing relative importance removes ‘chatter’ from less important criteria

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Questions?

June 2019 Incorporating Relative Importance: MCDA polyphenol production 17