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Identifying potentially commercially disruptive technologies Peter - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Identifying potentially commercially disruptive technologies Peter - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Identifying potentially commercially disruptive technologies Peter Evans peter.evans@ipo.gov.uk Senior Analyst Need to identifying emerging technology Current emerging tech work/new approach Benson CL, Magee CL (2015) Quantitative
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Current emerging tech work/new approach
- Benson CL, Magee CL (2015) Quantitative Determination of Technological
Improvement from Patent Data
- Carley SF, Newman NC, Porter AL, Garner JG (2017) A measure of staying
power: Is the persistence of emergent concepts more significantly influenced by technical domain or scale?, Scientometrics
- Erdi P, Makovi K, Somogyvari Z, Tobochnik J, Volf P, Zalanyi L (2012)
“Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent citation network” Scientometrics (2013)
- Daim T, Rueda G, Martin H, Gerdsri P (2005) “Forecasting emerging
technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis”
- Buchanan B, Corken R (2010) Disruptive technology: a toolkit,
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The seven basic plots
- Overcoming the monster
- Rags to Riches
- The Quest
- Voyage and Return
- Comedy
- Tragedy
- Rebirth
Booker, C. (2004). The Seven Basic Plots: Why we tell stories. Continuum.
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Our question
Can the patenting behaviour surrounding historically ground breaking products be used to identify ground breaking, disruptive or emerging technologies?
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The ground breaking products
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Back stories
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Clustering
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Data
Total patent applications/granted Applicant type Holdings Existing/new applicants Inventors Family Citations IPC Unclassifiable IPC
- Ground breaking
technology area
- Ground breaking
applicant
- 400 + variables
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Next steps
- 1. Identify variables synonymous within the ground
breaking technology groups
- 2. Group patent data into technology groups and search for
patterns like those synonymous with ground breaking technology groups
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Data science
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Provisional results
Ground breaking firms vs Ground breaking technology area
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Provisional results
High tech ground breaking technology area vs All other ground breaking technology areas
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500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000
Patent publications
Data coverage 1
Pre Publication Application Growth
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Data coverage
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Data coverage
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1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 1782 1817 1838 1841 1844 1847 1850 1853 1856 1859 1862 1865 1868 1871 1874 1877 1880 1883 1886 1889 1892 1895 1898 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Patent publications and IPC
Publication count IPC count
Data coverage 2
IPC established by the Strasbourg Agreement
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1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 1782 1817 1838 1841 1844 1847 1850 1853 1856 1859 1862 1865 1868 1871 1874 1877 1880 1883 1886 1889 1892 1895 1898 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Patent publications and citations
Publication count Citation count
Data coverage 3
European Patent Convention Online searching
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Next steps
- 1. Identify variables synonymous with the ground breaking
technology groups
- 2. Group patent data into technology groups and search for
patterns like those synonymous with ground breaking technology groups
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