I nt roduct ion t o SimCLI M Wei Ye The I nt er nat ional Global - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Wei Ye The I nt er nat ional Global Change I nst it ut e Univer sit y of Waikat o

I nt roduct ion t o SimCLI M

What is SimCLI M?

• A resear ch pr oduct f r om New Zealand Climat e

Change I mpact St udies (CLI MPACTS)

• An int egr at ed comput er model f or climat e change

impact assessment

• Build-in cust omised GI S syst em t o suppor t mult i-

level spat ial analysis

• Based on I PCC guidelines and upgr adeable wit h

lat est scient if ic r esear ch inf or mat ion.

Why Develop int egrat ed

assessment model ?

Some Background:

• Climat e change is REAL and it s impact has been

f elt by people all over t he wor ld

• High demand f rom t he st akeholder s t o include

climat e change impact inf ormat ion int o t heir decision making

Why Develop int egrat ed

assessment model ?

Some Background:

• Model based approach have helped st udy t he global warming, it s

impact and evaluat e t he possibilit y of mit igat ion and adapt at ion possibilit y in t he past and in t he f oreseeable f ut ure

• GCMs are t he most comprehensive t ools f or est imat ing t he

response of climat e t o r adiat ion f orcing

• I t has been a challenge t o mainst ream such scient if ic inf ormat ion

int o act ion, due t o t he uncer t aint ies of t he model and t he complexit y t o ref lect such uncert aint ies in policy-making process

Uncert aint ies!!!

What is t he challenge?

• Uncert aint ies in f ut ure greenhouse gas and

aerosol emissions

• Uncert aint ies in global climat e sensit ivit y, due

t o dif f erences in t he way physical processes and f eedbacks are simulat ed in dif f erent models

• Uncert aint ies in regional climat e changes,

which are apparent f rom t he dif f erences in regional est imat es of climat e

What is t he challenge?

I PCC Task Gr oup on Dat a and Scenar io Suppor t f or I mpact and Climat e Assessment (TGI CA) Gener al guidelines on t he use of scenar io dat a f or climat e impact and adapt at ion assessment

• The I PCC Dat a Dist ribut ion Cent re (DDC)
• Met hods of impact assessment

How t o t ackle t he problem in assessment

models ?

• Dir ect using GCM simulat ion r esult in impact

assessment

Keep model’s physical/ mat hemat ical consist ency Pr ovide t r ansient simulat ion out put Comput at ionally and r esour ce demanding Pr ovide only one possible scenar io of t he f ut ur e t hat can not cover t he f ull r ange of t he uncer t aint ies

• Nor malised Pat t er n Scaling met hod

Possibilit y t o r epr esent t he whole r ange of uncer t aint ies involved in f ut ur e climat e change pr oj ect ion simple t o oper at e and comput at ionally f ast

How t o t ackle t he problem in assessment

models ?

St eps of t he met hod

1. The st andar dised pat t er n of climat e change f r om t he GCM is est imat ed by dividing individual gr id box changes by t he global mean war ming of t hat model exper iment , yielding a r at io 2. The magnit ude of global war ming by a specif ied dat e in t he f ut ur e is est imat ed f r om t he simple model f or a given emissions scenar io and a given climat e sensit ivit y 3. The pat t er ns of changes in dif f er ent climat ic var iables ar e mult iplied by t he global war ming value f r om st age 2

) ( / ) (

) 1990 / 1960 ( ) 2099 / 2070 ( ) 1990 / 1960 ( ) 2099 / 2070 ( gcm gcm gcm gcm gcm

GMT GMT T T T

• )

1 ( ) ( ) 1 ( sebm gcm gcm gcm

GMT T T T

Weakness?

A f undament al assumpt ion of t he scaling approach is t hat while t he magnit ude of climat e change alt ers over t ime in proport ion t o t he global warming, t he pat t ern of change f rom t he GCM remains const ant

SimCLI M st ruct ure

Biophysical I mpact s on: Agricult ure, Coast al, Human Healt h, Wat er Global Climat e Proj ect ion Local Climat e average, variabilit y, ext remes (present and f ut ure) Greenhouse gas emission scenarios USER Climat e and GCM pat t ern import t oolbox Dat a “Plug-in” Models I mpact Model Scenario select ions

• Synt het ic changes
• GCM pat t erns
• Land dat a
• Ot her spat ial dat a

MAGI CC I PCC CMI P (GCMs)

Advant ages of t he SimCLI M modelling approach

• quick running and f lexible
• spat ial and t emporal analyses
• mult i-scale -

nat ional, regional, sit es

• Training – f or awareness raising
• easily updat ed

Mult i-scale, open-f ramework syst em

1990 brings up baseline climat e Scenario years up t o 2100

Key uncer t aint ies:

• Regional variat ions
• Emission scenario
• Climat e sensit ivit y

Const r uct ing Climat e Change Scenar ios: spat ial

Climate feedbacks

Const r uct ing Climat e Change Scenar ios: sit e specif ic

SimCLI M can be used t o SimCLI M can be used t o

• Describe baseline climat es

Describe baseline climat es

• Examine current climat e variabilit y and

Examine current climat e variabilit y and ext remes ext remes

• Assess risks

Assess risks – – present and f ut ure present and f ut ure

• I nvest igat e adapt at ion

I nvest igat e adapt at ion – – present and f ut ure present and f ut ure

• Creat e climat e change scenarios

Creat e climat e change scenarios

• Conduct sensit ivit y analyses

Conduct sensit ivit y analyses

• Examine

Examine sect oral sect oral impact s impact s

• Examine uncert aint ies

Examine uncert aint ies

• Facilit at e int egrat ed impact analyses

Facilit at e int egrat ed impact analyses

Thank You!

weiye@waikat o.ac.nz