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ALEADINGFULLYINTEGRATEDREFINING&PETROCHEMICAL
COMPANYINASIAPACIFIC
teamwork,innovationandtrustforsustainability
SocialResponsibility
Vision Focus Professionalism ExcellentStriving
Ownership&Commitment SocialResponsibility Integrity VisionFocus Teamwork&Collaboration Initiative
3
Theboard ofdirectors,management and all staff shall commit to moral
futuretrendsto allstakeholders equally i l principles, equitable treatment to all stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with
not exploit the confidential information for the benefit of related dedication,integrity,andtransparency. partiesorpersonalgains.
not disclose any confidential informationtoexternalparties.
CorporateManagementOffice Thai Oil Public Company Limited +66022990000 7312 5
Should you discover any ethical wrongdoing that is not compliancetoCGpoliciesorany activity that could harm the
ThaiOilPublicCompanyLimited 123SuntowersBuidlingB,16F VibhavadiRangsitRoad, Chomphon,Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900
+66022990024
activity that could harm the Company’s interest, please inform:
Bangkok10900 cgcoordinate@thaioil.co.th http://www.thaioil.co.th
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5
6
150 9.6 7 9
MarketGRM
(Unit:$/bbl)
CrudeOilPrice Dubai
(Unit:$/bbl)
50 100 4.5 3.4 7.9 3.8 1.2 0.7 6.4 1.1
41 75 89
94 62
1.4 14.9
StockGain/Loss
(Unit:$/bbl)
24.5
AccountingGRM
(Unit:$/bbl)
2008 2009 2.4 14.9 10 3 0.9 6.1 0.8 3.5 4.2 2.3 6.9 3.0 7.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 3.4 10.3 22.7 26 3
AccountingGIM IntegratedIntake
(Unit:KBD) (Unit:$/bbl)
6.9 14.8 7.3 26.3 5.6 10.8 4.4 5.8 4.3 6.1 288 301 272 289 294 283 292 274 287 286
7
4.1 13.8 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08FY/09 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08FY/09
InterestExpense OperatingCost
(Unit:$/bbl) (Unit:$/bbl)
Group’sCompetitiveCashCost
AccountingGIM
42%
1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.6 FY/08 FY/09 4.3 6.1 FY/08 FY/09 FY/08 FY/09
NetProfitBreakdown
ConsolidatedNetProfit
FY/08 FY/09
Refinery Aromatics LubeBase Others
12,062
5285%
12,062
5285%
S b (Unit:MB) (Unit:MB)
224 224
Subs.
4,301 3,281
Refinery Subs.
8,781
FY/08 FY/09 FY/08 FY/09
4,077
Refinery
8
FY/08 FY/09
Operation&Business
g g g pp 1,130million
Finance
Investments
9
100% 100% 55% 100% PTT26% JPower19% 100%
Thaioil ( ) ThaiLubeBase ( ) ThaioilPower ( ) ThaioilMarine ( ) ThaioilEthanol ( ) ThaiParaxylene ( )
30%
(TOP) (TLB) (TP) (TM) Capacity: 275,000barrels/day SmallPowerProducer Program SellsElectricity/ SteamtoGroup Oil&ChemicalTankers Capacity:61,000 deadweighttons
Padaeng 35% MitrPhol Group 35%
Others60%
LubeBaseOil Capacity: BaseOil 270,000 tons/annum AromaticsCapacity: Paraxylene 489,000 tons/annum MixedXylene (TET) (TPX) Platformate 1 8 million tons/annum MaesodCleanEnergy (MCE) Program 3on1CombinedCycle Electricity118MW Steam168 tons/hour
9% PTT31% O e s 60%
Bitumen 400,000 tons/annum 90,000 tons/annum Benzene 177,000 tons/annum Toluene 144,000 tons/annum 1.8milliontons/annum Independent Power ( ) SugarcaneBasedEthanol Capacity:200,000 litres/day
PTT20% Thaioil24% 56% 100%
Thappline (THAP) MultiproductPipeline Capacity: 26,000millionlitres/year , / Total 900,000tons/annum
100%
IndependentPower (Thailand)(IPT)
ThaioilEnergySolutions (TES)
, /y ThaioilSolvent ThroughTOPSolvent(TS) 1st IndependentPower ProducerProgram 2on1GasFired, b d l
100% 80.52% Solvent distribute Sak Chaisidhi Top Sol ent
PTT ICT Solutions
10
PTTGroup80% (TES)
Provideshighquality consultantservice
20%
Capacity: 100,000 tons/annum CombinedCycle Electricity700MW
Solventdistribute toThailand SakChaisidhi (SAKC) TopSolvent Vietnam Solventdistribute toVietnam
PTTICTSolutions (PTTICT)
AchievedtheBoardoftheYearawardfortheyear2008/2009fromtheThaiInstituteof Directors (IOD) for the second consecutive terms
BoardsoftheYear0809
Directors(IOD)forthesecondconsecutiveterms.
CGRating2009
AchievedtheExcellentRatingthroughCorporateGovernanceReportofThaiListed Companies 2009 from the Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
IntegrationManagementSystem
Firstrefinery&petrochemicalplantsinThailandtoreceivethecertificationfor I t ti M t S t (IMS) hi h i f ISO 9001 ISO 14001 TIS Companies2009fromtheThaiInstituteofDirectors(IOD) IntegrationManagementSystem(IMS),whichcomprisesofISO9001,ISO14001,TIS 18001&BSOHSAS18001fromtheManagementSystemCertificationInstitute(Thailand)
ThailandQualityClass:TQCAward
TLBreceivedtheExcellenceAward(ThailandQualityClass:TQCAward)fromtheOffice
ZeroAccidentAward
Asaresultofnoaccidenttostopoperationtimefor12yearssinceitsestablishment,TPX receivedtheGoldenZeroAccidentAwardfortheyear2009fromtheMinistryofLabor.
CSR DIW
11 TPX&SAKCreceivedthecertificateofmanagementsystemincompliancewiththe standardsforCorporateSocialResponsibilityoftheDepartmentofIndustrialWorks (CSRDIW).
. CG
13
16 4
GO LPG
(controlledprice) (Unit:$/bbl)
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
63.4 24.6 16.4 31.2 40.0 47.5 65.6 33.7 23.0 37.6 25.7 17.7 26.0 88.9 85.3 17.7 8.9 7.0 7.0 6.2 7.3
ULG95 HSFO
16.8 10.9 7.8 5.3 5.8 3.0 4.5 14.9 4.7 13.7 12.9
JET
24.3 12.9 6.0 3.7 10.5 9.6 8.9 5.1 9.1 8.5
Market GRM
22.8 37.4 28.8 22.1 27.8 9.6 7.9 6.4
MarketGRM 14
11.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 8.3 4.5 3.4 3.8 1.2 0.7 1.4 6.4 1.1 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08FY/09 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08FY/09
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
CrudeOilPrice Dubai
(Unit: $/bbl)
+ PositiveUSeconomicdatai.eISMmfgindex&
emplo ment rate
130 150
(Unit:$/bbl)
employmentrate
+ SignificantincreaseonIndianandChineseoildemand + ConcernsoverIran’snuclearambitious + OPEC’smaintainedcrudequota
70 90 110
q
winter 94
30 50 70
winter
62
2008 2009
andlowerruns
15
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
(Unit: $/bbl)
StockGain/Loss
(Unit: $/bbl)
CrudeOilPrice Dubai
(Unit:$/bbl)
130 150
(Unit:$/bbl)
4.2 2.3
70 90 110
94
FY/08 FY/09 30 50 70
62
/ / FY/08 FY/09
AccountingGRM
(Unit: $/bbl)
3.4
(Unit:$/bbl)
16 2.2
FY/08 FY/09
DomesticOilDemand/RefineryIntake DomesticOilDemand
(KBD) (KBD)
+2%
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
131 215 221 197 172 191
87% 89% 88% 85% 86% 87% 60% 80% 100% 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 ( ) (KBD)
+5% +2%
698713
FY/08 FY/09 722 699 690 734 698 713
0% 20% 40% 200 400 600
+6% 5% 16% +5%
137 123 78 304 56 144 130 74 318 47 DomesticDemand/Sales NetExport Others UtilizationRate
TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales
Source: DOEB, Ministry of Energy.
LPG Jet/Kero Diesel FO Gasoline Total Demand 14% 11%
19% 19%
(KBD) RefineryIntake
274 276
TOP sDomestic&ExportSales
43% 11% 2% 11% Domestic
FY/2009 Sales Breakdown 81% 81% 19% 19%
Export Domestic 16% 3% Domestic Jobbers
Export=19% FY/08 FY/09
17
Utilization
AromaticsSpotPrices&Margins
PX ULG95
271 328 360 207 384 475 355 321
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 70% 93% 92% 91%
1,800
PXULG95
271 328 360 207 384 475 355 321
BZULG95
156 123 184 33 60 79 160 178
(US$/Ton)
292 108 384 89
800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
PTAduetoeconomic stimuluspackage.In
PX BZ
200 400 600
p g addition,economics growthinAsiahasdriven aromaticsspread.
ULG95 Q2 Q1/08 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2
*RevisedaromaticspricetoPlatts
Q3 Q4
unabletofullyoperateas feedstocklimitedowingto refinery run cut worldwide
47 1 28 42 28 25 37 42 43 13 33 21 20 46 39 44 TL BZ
(Kton/Quarter)
TPX’sProductSales&P2F refineryruncutworldwide
firmdemandfromSM pushedBZpriceandspread
13 78 129 92 105 123 123 105 102 47 1 2 28 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 MX PX
101 158
p p p higher.
$/ton 50 93 163 95 157 155 159 154 $/bbl 6.6 12.1 21.4 12.4 20.6 20.3 21.0 20.2
18
101 13.2 158 20.7
500SN HSFO
434 535 796 817 398 264 404 429
BaseOil&BitumenSpotPrices&Margins
Utilization
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
1,600 500SNHSFO
434 535 796 817 398 264 404 429
BitumenHSFO
100 177 157 62 70 5 3 23
(US$/Ton)
646 93 374 10
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 56% 105% 100% 98%
600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
fromeconomicrecovery, while supply tightened due
500SN Bitumen
200 400
whilesupplytighteneddue toGroupIbaseoilplants closeddown&refineryrun cut.
Q2 Q1/08 Q3
TLB’s Product Sales & P2F
Q4 Q1/09 Q2 HSFO Bitumen Q3 Q4
asaresultofeconomic stimuluspackages, especially in China & India
(Kton/Quarter)
TLB sProductSales&P2F
40 35 3 41 36 39 92 89 89 65 60 81 82 84
Bitumen TDAE/Extract
especiallyinChina&India.
lowerthan2008,asF/O price was higher following
67 68 59 35 53 72 67 64 40 35 37 21 23 41 36 39 65 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4
/ /SlackWax BaseOil
114 104
pricewashigherfollowing crudepricerally.
$/ton 88 153 173 14 97 99 96 126 $/bbl 13.4 23.2 26.3 2.1 14.8 15.1 14.5 19.0
19
114 17.2 104 15.8
6.6 12.1 21.4 12.4 20.6 20.3 20.7 20.2 13.2 20.7
Product to
(US$/bbl)
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08 FY/09
4.5 9.6 3.4 7.9 3.8 6.4
Productto Feed
(US$/bbl)
3.4 1.2 0.7 1.4 1.1
Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08 FY/09
23 2 26 3
Crude Market GRM*
13.4 23.2 26.3 2.1 14.8 15.1 14.5 19.0 17.2 15.8
Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08 FY/09
Productto Feed
(US$/bbl) * hi h l d d k i d l
26.3 12.0
Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08 FY/09 *whichexcludedstockgainandloss (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)
MarketGIM AccountingGIM
7.3 5.6 10.8 4.4 5.8 4.3 6.1 5.7 5.7 8.4 6.4 5.0 3.7 2.4 7.9 4.3 4.1 13.8
Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08 FY/09 Q1/08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/08 FY/09
20
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
Refinery Utilization Aromatic Production LubeBase Production Plant Availability Plant Utilization ShipUtilization SAKC Utilization 99% 100% 87% 97% 96% 77% 93% 94% 91% 93% 76% 75% 77% 75% 76% FY/08 FY/09 52%*
.
FY/ 08 6.4 P2F
(US$/ ton)
GRM
(US$/ bbl)
P2F
(US$/ ton)
101 114 AP Rate
(Baht/ KW hour)
0.32
*OnlyinDec.
FY/ 09 1.1 158 104 0.28
FY/2009NetProfitBreakdown
(Unit:MB)
NP
11,378 12 062 3 281 7 091 1 006 570 240 26 157
NP YoY
12,062 3,281 7,091 1,006 570 240 26 157
+5285% +180% +252% 4% 0% +38% 46% n/a
21
FY/09 FY/08
YoY+/()
% (US$/bbl) Q4/09 Q3/09 Q4/08
QoQ+/()
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
3.4 2.2 +1.2 +55% 6.1 4.3 +1.8 +42% AccountingGRM 2.1 1.4 (14.8) +0.7 AccountingGIM 5.8 4.4 (13.8) +1.4 (MB) SalesRevenue 78,944 78,035 65,221 +909 284,123 399,125 115,002 29% EBITDA 3,637 3,821 (9,568) 184 FinancialCharges (433) (503) (629) +70 FX G/L & CCS 243 440 (509) 197 21,393 7,949 +13,444 +169% (2,115) (2,116) 1 0% 1 575 (898) +2 473 +275% FXG/L&CCS 243 440 (509) 197 TaxExpense (85) (104) 3,145 19 Net Profit / (Loss) 1 611 1 978 (8 394) 367 1,575 (898) +2,473 +275% (2,005) 786 +2,791 +355% 12 062 224 +11 838 +5285% NetProfit/(Loss) 1,611 1,978 (8,394) 367 EPS(THB/Share) 0.79 0.97 (4.11) 0.18 THB/US$ ending 33 52 33 70 35 08 0 18 12,062 224 +11,838 +5285% 5.91 0.11 +5.80 +5273% 33 52 35 08 1 56 4% THB/US$ ending 33.52 33.70 35.08 0.18 EffectiveTaxRate(%) 5% 5% n/a 33.52 35.08 1.56 4% 14% n/a n/a n/a 22
(Unit: MB)
BalanceSheet ConsolidatedLongTermDebt1)
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
42,115 42,134
(Unit:MB)
LTDebt*
137,745 132,841
Current Assets TotalLTDebt Bt.42,134mn. (US$1,257mn.) NetDebt Bt.34,196mn. (US$1,020mn.)
FY/09 63,579 71,687 27,146 23,924
TradePayable /Others Equities Assets NonCurrent Assets US$ Bond THB Loan 22% 10% 6% 0% FY/08
Figuresshownareunauditedfromthecompany’sCertifiedPublicAccountants
FY/09
*IncludingcurrentportionofLongTermDebt
35% US$ Loan 8% THB Bond 35% 22% 84%
1)IncludingcurrentportionofLongTermDebt
FinancialRatios
NetDebt/EBITDA NetDebt/Equity
I nterest Rate Currencies
5.2
2.0x 1.0x 48% Float 57% THB 52% Fixed 43% USD
0.9 1.6
FY/ 07 FY/ 08 FY09 0.4 0.7 0.5 FY/ 07 FY/ 08 FY/ 09 Asof30December2009(33.52THB/US$)
Cost of Debt TOP Group 3.94%
23
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
FY/09 FY/08
(Unit:Bt.mn.)
FY/09 FY/08 OperatingCashFlow 15,336 8,441
Netincome&noncashadj. 22,214 8,711 Change in assets & liabilities (6 878) (270)
+
CAPEX&Investment (2,466) (9,641)
CAPEX(PP&E) (1,300) (6,283) Other investment (1 166) (3 358) Changeinassets&liabilities (6,878) (270) Otherinvestment (1,166) (3,358)
+
FreeCashFlow 12 870 (1 200) Financing (12,268) 5,003
Drawdown/(Re/Prepayment) of ST/ LT loans (5 864) 16 389
12,870 (1,200)
Drawdown/(Re/Prepayment) ofST/LTloans (5,864) 16,389 Dividend (4,334) (9,368) Interest (2,070) (2,018)
24 + = BeginningCash 8,016 4,213 NetIncreaseinCash 602 3,803 EndingCash 8,618 8,016
DividendPolicy: N l h 25% f lid d fi f d d i
Refining Aromatics Lube Base IntegratedMargin PerformanceBreakdown Financials
Dividend THB/Share Payout
Notlessthan25%ofconsolidatednetprofitafterdeductingreserves, subjecttocashflowandinvestmentplan
25% Min Div Payout THB/Sh
Payment THB/Share Payout FY/04 1.80 25% FY/05 3 50 40%
7.82 9.19 8.13 9.40
EPS 25%Min.Div.Payout
n.a.
THB/Share
FY/05 3.50 40% FY/06 Interim Annual 3.50 1.50 2.00 45%
5.91 4.50
Total Dividend
25% 40% 45% 48% 43%
Annual 2.00 FY/07 Interim Annual 4.50 1.75 2.75 48%
1.80 3.50 3.50 2.75 2.55
FY/08 Interim Annual 2.75 1.75 1.00 n.a.
0.11 FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 FY/07 FY/08 FY/09
Interim
1.05 FY/09 Interim Annual 2.55 1.05 1.50 43% Yield 3.5% 5.5% 6.7% 5.2% 11.0% 6.3%
25
26
‘09 ‘10
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
Clearsignofeconomicrecoveryfrom positiveeconomicdata
Q3 Q4Jan Dubai:687576.7 Dubai:687576.7
Crudereached$83/bbloninvestors’ increasedriskappetite Improved GRM on colder weather & low
MODB:9511.3 MODB:9511.3 JetDB:779.2 JetDB:779.2
ImprovedGRMoncolderweather&low refineryrun
FODB:34.51.8 FODB:34.51.8 GODB:767.6 GODB:767.6
Improvedaromaticsspreadsonhigher demandandtightersupplyduetocapacity delay and limited feedstock
PXUG95:372338377 PXUG95:372338377 BZUG95:160178290 BZUG95:160178290
delayandlimitedfeedstock Improvedbaseoil&bitumendemand
500SNFO:404416404 500SNFO:404416404 TLUG95:109121171 TLUG95:109121171 BitumenFO:3232 BitumenFO:3232 27
4 0 17
EconomicSentiment Unemployment
45 110
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
3.0 3.5 4.0 13 15 17 lions JP
(RHS)
US EU 35 40 45 80 90 100 110 US EU CN JP
(RHS)
2.0 2.5 3.0 9 11 13 mill 20 25 30 50 60 70 80 US Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2009 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2009 2010
IndustrialProduction RetailSales
45 55 65 US EU IN CN JP 19% 22% 25% 0% 4% 8% Y US JP 25 35 45 13% 16% 8% 4% %YoY EU CN 15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2009 2010 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2009 2010
28
15% %YoY
WorldGDPOutlook
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
9% 12% 15% China
Theworstisover Ayearofrecovery
+3.9% 3% 6% 9% India Japan Thailand 0.8% 3% 0% US EU World 6% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source:IMFWorldEconomicOutlookUpdate,26Jan10
D id i k i
PolicyAftermath &ExitStrategy Interestrate policies Laws&Regulations
p ,
Downsiderisksremain
Inflation&Asset pricebubble Sovereigndebt default
unemployed
High unemployment
29
GlobalOilDemand OPEC11Supply
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
86.5 86.3 85.9 86.1 85.8 86.9 87.2 86 87 88 MBD 29 30 MBD 2010 2007 2008 84.5 84.1 85.3 85.8 83 84 85 86 26 27 28 82 83 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 24 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Target Source:IEA,OilMarketReport,February2010 Source:OPEC,MonthlyOilMarketReport,February2010
to86.5MBD
pp y p g p g
30
$/BBL
WTI vs USD
$/Euro $/BBL
WTI vs DJI
Points
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
1.45 1.50 1.55 70 80 90 $/BBL
WTIvs USD
WTI
$/ 10,000 11,000 70 80 90 $/BBL
WTIvs DJI
WTI
1.30 1.35 1.40 40 50 60
USD
7,000 8,000 9,000 40 50 60
DJI
1.20 1.25 30 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 6,000 7,000 30 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
LargedeclineinstockmarketandmuchstrongerUSDasinvestorsareuncertain abouteconomicrecoveryespeciallyproblemsinEurope
supportaround$70/bbl pp /
31
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
2010CrudePriceForecast
2010WTIPrice Forecast Asof $/BBL Fortis 14Aug09 77.50 Credit Suisse 3Nov09 70 00
2009WTI
CreditSuisse 3Nov09 70.00 UBS 17Nov09 75.00 BNPParibas 18Nov09 81.00 ING 10 D 09 70 00
2009Dubai 2010WTIF 2010DubaiF
ING 10Dec09 70.00 DeutscheBank 22Jan10 65.00 JPMorgan 26Jan10 78.25 StandardChartered 27Jan10 82.00 Barclays 5Feb10 85.00 Societe Generale 12Feb10 85.90 Mean 16Feb10 76.97
Source:Bloomberg
32
AsiaPacificAdditionalRefiningCapacity
KBD
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
1,500 1,750 2,000 KBD ME +2.5MBD +1.0MBD 750 1,000 1,250 Others Japan 250
500 Vietnam India China 250 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: FACTS Fall 2009
expectedtocomeonstreamin2010, l l th 2009
Y10 KBD Company,Site China Q1 200 PetroChina, Qinzhou (Guangxi) Q1 110 PetroChina,Lanzhou
Source:FACTSFall2009
lesslowerthan2009
mainlyfromChina,India,andPakistan
India Q2 120 BharatOmanRefinery, Bina Pakistan Q4 120 Bosicor, Karachi
33
MiddleDistillatesInventorycontinuedtodrawfromrecordhigh
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
demandinthewestasaresultofcolderweather
34
Simplerefineriessufferedfrompoormarginandwereforcedtocutrun
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
margins margins
downin2009
35
Refiningmarginbegantoimproveyetpressuredby
KTPA
AromaticsSupply/Demand(NEA&SEA)
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
24,000 28,000
Paraxylene Benzene
20,000 24,000
Toluene
12,000 16,000 8,000 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 Supply Demand
36
LOWASIANREFINERYRUN NEWCAPACITYDELAY
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
90% 92% 7.0 8.0
Refinery Utilization(%) GRM($/bbl)
82% 84% 86% 88% 3 0 4.0 5.0 6.0 74% 76% 78% 80% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
SingaporeCracking Margin APRefineryUtilization
80%
Source:FACTSFall2009,Reuters
PotentialPlantDelayin2010 PotentialPlantDelayin2010
New Capacity in 2010 New Capacity in 2010
Y10 PXKTPA BZKTPA Company,Site China Q4 1 000 350 Urumqi PC (Delay)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
y
logisticconstraint y
logisticconstraint
NewCapacityin2010
Reformers1CoalandSEA :2Crackers
NewCapacityin2010
Reformers1CoalandSEA :2Crackers
China Q4 1,000 350 UrumqiPC(Delay) Q1 250 TianjinPC Q2 250 Zhenhai,Zhejiang 2012 200 Fushun PC (Delay)
availability
availability
useBZlocallytoreplaceAsianBZimport useBZlocallytoreplaceAsianBZimport
2012 200 FushunPC(Delay) Thailand Q1 230 MOC,Rayong Singapore Q1 160 Shell, Bukom
37
LOWASIANREFINERYRUN NEWCAPACITYDELAY
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
90% 92% 7.0 8.0
Refinery Utilization(%) GRM($/bbl)
Plants delay
82% 84% 86% 88% 3 0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Plantsdelay
74% 76% 78% 80% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
SingaporeCracking Margin APRefineryUtilization
80%
Source:FACTSFall2009,Reuters
PotentialPlantDelayin2010 PotentialPlantDelayin2010
New Capacity in 2010 New Capacity in 2010
Y10 PXKTPA BZKTPA Company,Site China Q4 1 000 350 Urumqi PC (Delay)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
y
logisticconstraint y
logisticconstraint
NewCapacityin2010
Reformers1CoalandSEA :2Crackers
NewCapacityin2010
Reformers1CoalandSEA :2Crackers
China Q4 1,000 350 UrumqiPC(Delay) Q1 250 TianjinPC Q2 250 Zhenhai,Zhejiang 2012 200 Fushun PC (Delay)
availability
availability
useBZlocallytoreplaceAsianBZimport useBZlocallytoreplaceAsianBZimport
2012 200 FushunPC(Delay) Thailand Q1 230 MOC,Rayong Singapore Q1 160 Shell, Bukom
38
18 000
Demand/SupplyinSEAandNEA
KMT
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
14,000 16,000 18,000
Supply
10,000 12,000 ,
GrIII G II
Demand
6,000 8,000
GrII GrI
2,000 4,000
2 3 4 5
2009 2010
G I b il i till h t i A i d t hi h d d G I b il i till h t i A i d t hi h d d
39
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
ProductionAndRetails ThailandMarketApplication
Expectinggrowthinsales
40
January2010MarketHighlight Macroeconomics PetroleumMarket Aromatics, BaseOil&Solvent ProductSpreads&Margin
IntentionallyLeftBlank
41
Present Future
CompetitiveEnhancement GrowthEnhancement OrganicGrowth ValueChainEnhancement
A B
Bestinclassoperations OpX,the nextlevel&benchmarking improvement Ahead of the Curve enhance 1 2 Alternativeenergy Diversification
C D
AheadoftheCurve– enhance forecasting&planningcapabilities CashisKing– rigorouscashflow mgmt & prudent investment 2 3 M&A/InternationalInvestment
D E
mgmt&prudentinvestment Proactiveriskmanagement Synergycapture 4 5
Projects(Unit:M$) 2009 2010 2011 Total
TMNewFleets
5 14
14
TLB TDAE
5 20
25 HCURevamp
ProspectInvestment
TLB TDAE
5 20
25
EuroIVGasoline
27 20
47
PXUpgrading
21 24
45 LubeBaseSpecialty/Gr.II/III BenzeneDerivatives
Upgrading&Reliability Improvement(StudyPart)
24 10
34 Total 10 106 54 170 SolventExpansion&Ethanol M&A/InternationalInvestment
42
TOP on our Mind TOPonourMind
TOPoftheCurve
TOPDiversification
TOPCompetitiveness
43
44
45
46
ThailandLPGDemand LPGDemandHighlight
ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010
LPGDemandin2009grew5%YoY mainlyfrom skyrocketedpetrochemicaldemand: Household+5% Transportation 14%
700 800 900
Transportation14% Industry11% Petrochemical+43%
400 500 600
LPGDemandbySector Outlook2010
400 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
largelyfrompetrochemicalindustry
consequently,governmentneedstoimport morethan100KTpermonth 47
Source:DepartmentofEnergyBusiness,MinistryofEnergy
ThailandGasolineDemand
ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010
GasolineDemandHighlight
650 700
Gaso e de a d g e 6% 009 t higherportionofgasoholdemandesp. GSH95
500 550 600
Averageethanolreplacementis0.94 ML/Dayin2008and1.25ML/Dayin2009
GasolineDemandbyGrade
500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Outlook2010
ULG95 2% GSH91 E20 1%
2009
ULG95 5% GSH91 13% E20 0%
2008
2010: Highergasolinepricewillcontinueto
ULR91 38% 19% ULR91 48% GSH95 34% 13%
pressuredowndemand Expecthighergasoholconsumption pushedbygovernmentintervention 48
Source:DepartmentofEnergyBusiness,MinistryofEnergy GSH95 40%
JETDemandHighlight
ThailandJETA1Demand
ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010
S ugg s de a d 009 ( 5% o ) due to domesticpoliticaluncertaintyandand H1N1 virus
350 400 450 500 200 250 300 350
Outlook2010
d d h
JETA1demandand#offlights
200 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Highertourism Highercommoditiesexportandimport
400 450 500 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000
nth aft
demandin2010fromgraduallygrowth inglobaleconomicsituation
200 250 300 350 20 000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000
mml/mon #ofaircra
#ofFlights(lhs) JP1Demand
49
Source:DepartmentofEnergyBusiness,MinistryofEnergy 200 20,000 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2007 2008 2009
GasoilDemandHighlight
ThailandGasoilDemand
ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010
Gasoildemandgrown5%YoY in2010from higherdomesticconsumption(government spending)
1,600 1,700 1,800
in2009
1.2ML/dayin2008and
1,300 1,400 1,500
1.68ML/dayin209
Outlook2010 ConsumptionofB2andB5
1,200 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
in2010: Higherdieselpricestillpressureon
1,500 2,000 ML/Mth B0 B2 B5
demandevengovernmenttrytocapture retailpriceunder30B/Litre IncreasingtrendofB5consumption
1,000
relativetoB2 50
Source:DepartmentofEnergyBusiness,MinistryofEnergy Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2007 2008 2009
FuelOilDemandHighlight
ThailandFuelOilDemand
ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010
FOdemandgrowthturnednegative16%in 2009duetoNGreplacementinpower sector
300 400 500 100 200
Outlook2010 ThailandFuelOilDemandbySector
Mar May Jul Sep Nov
growthin2010: Substitutionoflowcostfuelslikecoal,
400 500 ML/Mth Transportation Industry Electricity Others& Article10
LPGandNGinbothindustryand electricitysectors However,higherindustrialutilization
100 200 300
willliftsomedemand 51
Source:DepartmentofEnergyBusiness,MinistryofEnergy
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2007 2008 2009