Q4 and FY 2007 Results Analyst Presentation Thaioil Public Company - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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February 18, 2008

Thaioil Public Company Limited

Q4 and FY 2007 Results Analyst Presentation

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Disclaimer Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.

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Corporate Vision, Mission and Value Corporate Vision, Mission and Value

TOP seeks to be one of the leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical companies in the region recognized for our sustainable growth, optimum stakeholder value, and commitment to environmental and social well-being.

VISION

• To be PTT’s flagship refinery through optimized

management of the group’s refining portfolio

• To expand facilities to better meet domestic

demand growth

• To enhance the competitive advantage of our

power generation operations to further solidify the core refining business

• To create a high-performance organization that

promotes teamwork, innovation and trust

MISSION

P = Professionalism O = Ownership & Commitment S = Social Responsibility I = Integrity T = Teamwork and Collaboration I = Initiative V = Vision Focus E = Excellent Striving

CORPORATE VALUE

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Presentation Outline Presentation Outline

2007 Key Highlights 2007 Key Highlights Market Conditions & Financial Performance Market Conditions & Financial Performance Progress of Investment Projects Progress of Investment Projects TOP Group Strategy TOP Group Strategy Conclusion Conclusion

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• A step-up of cooperation amongst PTT group resulted in further logistic cost

savings and better feedstock procurement, especially during CDU-3 S/D

• Operating cost reduction / margin enhancement of US$ 0.30/bbl was

achieved through continuous Hydrocarbon Management Review.

• One MR and two chemical tankers were acquired by Thaioil Marine to better

cope with group’s logistic requirement.

2007 Key Highlights 2007 Key Highlights

• Year 2007 witnessed a solid performance, supported by healthy margins and

group integrated operations.

• Group net profit hits a record level of Bt. 19,176 mn, a 9% increase Y-o-Y.
• Successful completion of CDU-3 and MX revamp projects as planned. Our

capacity increases to 275 kbd, with maximum run upto 300 kbd.

Finance Operation & Business

• Capitalized on strong financial position, our financing costs were further

reduced through refinancing and interest rate reduction.

• $150 million CCS was unwound to realize cash gain of Bt. 596 mn.
• To optimize capital structure, TPX bought back Bt. 2,918 mn. preferred

shares from TOP.

• Bt. 1.75/share of interim dividend was made in October 2007 vs Bt.

1.5/share in 2006.

Overall

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Financial Highlights Financial Highlights

Consolidated EBITDA Consolidated Net Profit

3,245 24,577 6,043 29,030 Q4/06 Q4/07 FY06 FY07 1,480 17,659 4,621 19,176 Q4/06 Q4/07 FY06 FY07

* Percentage was based on total amount before deducting inter-company transaction

FY/06

24,577 MB

FY/07

29,030 MB

FY/06

17,659 MB

FY/07

19,176 MB +18% +9% +212% +9% +86% +18%

25% 12% 11% 52%

(Unit: MB) (Unit: MB)

73% 13% 7% 11%

PX 31% LB 13% Power& Others 10% Refinery 46% PX 18% LB 6% Power& Others 3% Refinery 73%

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Presentation Outline Presentation Outline

2007 Key Highlights 2007 Key Highlights Market Conditions & Financial Performance Market Conditions & Financial Performance Progress of Investment Projects Progress of Investment Projects TOP Group Strategy TOP Group Strategy Conclusion Conclusion

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20 40 60 80 100 120

J A J O J A J O

Record High Oil Prices and Spreads Record High Oil Prices and Spreads

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4

Oil Product & Crude Prices Oil Product & Crude Prices

• 25
• 15
• 5

5 15 25 35 03-01-06 03-04-06 03-07-06 03-10-06 03-01-07 03-04-07 03-07-07 03-10-07

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jet GO ULG95 Dubai HSFO Jet-DB GO-DB ULG95-DB HSFO-DB (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)

• High crude prices were

supported by

–

prolonged conflicts in/with petroleum exporting countries

–

U.S dollar depreciation

–

Capital flows into commodities, following concerns over sub-prime & US recession

• Gasoline price was pressured

by high inventory & the end of driving season in the US

• Price of middle distillates was

strengthened significantly due to demand from China following an increase in state- controlled prices, effective as from Nov’ 1st.

57.9 64.8 65.9 57.3 55.4 64.8 70.1 83.2 Dubai 9.3 18.8 11.7 7.0 12.9 20.9 11.6 12.6 ULG95-DB

61.5 68.4 11.7 14.5

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Improved Oil Demand for 2007 Improved Oil Demand for 2007

Domestic Oil Demand / Refinery Intake Domestic Oil Demand by Product

695 738 724 704 730 724 733 143 110 120 104 140 117 117 87% 89% 77% 91% 91% 86% 87%

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/06 FY/07

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Petrochem & Others Utilization Rate

Source: DOEB, Ministry of Energy.

42% 10% 10% 14% 8% Domestic Jobbers

93 125 72 334 107 126 77 316 102 103 118 128 84 323 73

LPG Jet/Kero Diesel FO Gasoline

TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales

86% 82% 88% 14% 18% 12%

FY/05 FY/06 FY/07 Export Domestic

2007 Sales Breakdown

FY/05 FY/06 FY/07

4% Export = 12%

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16% 18% 3% 11% 10% 10% 38% 42% 45% 19% 19% 12% 26% 22% 17% 6% 7% 16% 82% 81% LPG ULG Jet Diesel FO

Robust Gross Refinery Margins Robust Gross Refinery Margins

TOP’s Crude Mix & Oil Product Yield Oil Prices / Spreads - MOPS (US$/bbl) TOP’s Accounting GRM (US$/bbl)

2006 2007

Thailand’s Oil Demand Light Middle Heavy TP (F/E) DB (M/E) TP

• DB

Q4/06 63.3 57.3 6.2 7.0 17.8 13.1

• 14.5

Q4/07 93.4 83.2 10.2 12.6 22.7 19.4

• 10.6

Δ YoY +30.1 +26.1 +4.0 +5.6 +4.9 +6.3 +3.9 ULG 95

• DB

Jet

• DB

Diesel

• DB

Fuel Oil

• DB

4.81 10.56 2.84 0.73 8.28 10.56 6.00 4.84 11.67 8.97

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY06 FY07

Market GRM Stock Gain/(Loss)

F/E Local M/E FY/06 69.9 61.5 8.4 FY/07 72.7 68.4 4.3 14.5 23.5 21.7

• 5.9

+6.9 +4.1 +2.8 11.7 19.1 15.3

• 13.1

Δ YoY +2.8 +4.4 +6.4 +7.2

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400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07

Soften PX and LB Margins Soften PX and LB Margins

PX MX ULG95

• PX prices softened during

Q4/07 from lower demand as a result of lower PTA plants

• perations and shutdown of

MEG plants in Saudi Arabia.

• PX margin in Q4/07 was

pressured by higher ULG price / feedstock cost.

• 500 SN - HSFO spread in

Q4/07 was further reduced as a result of: – soften regional demand – higher feedstock costs

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 402 404 733 575 542 473 395 268

500SN HSFO

480 525 623 687 637 538 466 Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 380

500 SN & HSFO Spot Prices / Margins (US$/Ton) PX, MX and ULG 95 Spot Prices / Margins (US$/Ton)

529 420 579 505

PX-ULG 95 500SN-HSFO

12 4.84 8.97 11.67 8.28 4.81 10.56 2.84 0.73 10.56 6.00

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY06 FY07

Robust Integrated Margins Robust Integrated Margins

Integrated Margin 1) (US$/bbl)

Crude PX - ULG 95 GRM LB - HSFO

268 529 420 402 404 733 575 473 395 542

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY06 FY07

(US$/Ton) (US$/bbl) (US$/Ton)

1.75 1.48 2.69 2.04 1.85 1.40 1.28 0.10 1.98 1.25 0.67 1.15 1.12 1.22 1.15 0.71 0.64 1.03 0.86 0.87

10.52 7.61 11.34 10.8 7.03 12.64 6.51 3.95 12.32 7.67

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY06 FY07

• Despite continually softening PX and LB

margins, TOP Group’s integrated margin stood at $10.52/bbl, 38% higher Y-o-Y.

1) calculated from integrated intake

• 21%

+85%

• 13%

+38%

637 480 525 623 687 538 466 579 505 380

Q1/06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY06 FY07

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Performance Breakdown by Company Performance Breakdown by Company

104 96 82 74 92 91 91 88 87 86 91 96

FY/06 FY/07

Refinery Utilization PX Production Lube Base Production Plant Availability Plant Utilization Ship Utilization

• MX S/D
• Margin drop
• FX
• Feeds cost
• Tax 30%
• FX
• TOP S/D
• Cost of FO
• Tax 30%
• Insurance claim
• Maintenance

FY/06 FY/07

4.84 8.97

PX-ULG95

529 420 579 505

GRM 500SN-HSFO

• CDU3 S/D
• High GRM

5,666 318 30 262 13 1,574 2,412 8,456 627 1,130 3,401 14,083

FY/06 FY/07

Net Profit Breakdown

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Impact of accounting policy change Impact of accounting policy change

(Unit: Million THB) 2007 The Company Consolidated

Balance Sheet

Assets 114,940 (12,634) 102,306 150,109 (13,046) 137,063

• Property, Plant & Equipment

50,423 (12,634) 37,789 84,486 (13,046) 71,440

Liabilities 56,437 (2,491) 53,946 67,668 (2,491) 65,177

• Deferred Tax Liabilities

3,954 (2,491) 1,463 3,994 (2,491) 1,503

Equities 112,449 (10,143) 102,306 147,618 (10,555) 137,063 Before Adj. After Before Adj. After

* Figures shown are unauditted from the company’s Certified Public Accountants

Profit & Loss

Net Profit 16,504 1,360 17,864 17,804 1,372 19,176

• Depreciation

4,535 1,829 2,706 6,165 1,841 4,324

• Income Tax

4,237 (457) 4,694 4,851 (457) 5,308

The change of accounting policy on Fixed Assets Valuation from Revaluation to Cost Method in 2007

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Consolidated Financial Performance Consolidated Financial Performance

(US$/bbl) Q4/06 Q3/07 Q4/07 % YoY % QoQ FY/07 +95% +47% 8.97 10.52 FY/06 +1503% 4.84 7.61 +186% 11.67 11.34 %YoY TOP’s GRM 0.73 6.00 +85% Integrated Margin 3.95 7.69 +38% (MB)

• 3%

Accounting Adjustment 1,347

• 1,347

+100% +100%

• +21%

261,051 29,030 (1,728) 2,150 (5,308) 19,176 14,083

• 26%

+21% 5,093 +169% +84% +211%

• 68%
• 1%

279,109 24,577 (1,917) 3,570 (3,203) 17,659 8,456 9,203 +86%

• 31%
• 64%

+544% +212% +511%

• 54%

61,241 6,043 (342) 339 (1,482) 4,621 4,261 360 Sales Revenue 61,723 63,312

• 6%

3,245 +18%

• 10%
• 40%

+66% +9% TOP 697 1,369 +67%

• 45%

(496) 931 (230) 1,480 783 EBITDA 4,992 Financial Charges (460) Subsidiaries 1,140 FX G/L & CCS 281 Tax Expense (551) Net Profit 2,509 EPS (THB/Share) 0.73 1.23 2.26 +210% +84% 9.40

• 1%

+7% 33.89 22% 8.66

• 6%

36.23 15% +18% 33.89 25% +9% 36.23

• 6%

+7% 7% THB/US$ - ending 34.39 Effective Tax Rate (%) 18%

*

* Restated P&L regarding to the change of accounting policy

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Balance Sheet Consolidated Long-Term Debt

Robust Financial Position Robust Financial Position

71,886 60,166 51,338 33,218 19,706 20,249 31,959 30,452 35,869

(Unit: MB) Current Assets Non-Current Assets Other Liabilities LT Debt

107,456 110,324 137,063 FY/05 FY/06 FY/07

Equities

Financial Ratios

0.8 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 FY/05 FY/06 FY/07

Net Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / Equity

Treasury Policy

• Bt. 31,959 mn.

(US$ 943 mn.)

TOP 75% IPT 13% TPX 10% TP 2% THB Loan 30% US$ Loan 16% THB Bond 17%

Currencies

As of 31 December 2007 (33.89 THB/US$)

Interest Rate

US$ 53% THB 47% Float 41% Fixed 59%

* Figures shown are unauditted from the company’s Certified Public Accountants

Net Debt / Equity ≤ 1.0x Net Debt / EBITDA ≤ 2.0x

US$ Bond 37%

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Presentation Outline Presentation Outline

2007 Key Highlights 2007 Key Highlights Market Conditions & Financial Performance Market Conditions & Financial Performance Progress of Investment Projects Progress of Investment Projects TOP Group Strategy TOP Group Strategy Conclusion Conclusion

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TOP Group TOP Group’ ’s Major CAPEX Programs s Major CAPEX Programs

On-going Projects COD 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total CDU-3 Revamp Dec’07 New Gas Turbine Dec’07 9 22 12 43 Thaioil Marine’s New Fleets On-going 47 33 80 Feb’08 Mar’08 Jan’09 59 109 202 SBM Expansion 34 6 78 59 13 150 TPX Expansion 66 200 10 282 Ethanol 0.2 MLPD1) 18 18 Under Development Ethanol 0.5 MLPD Pending TLB Specialties 2009 45 16 61 2011 58 92 150 49 Euro IV 50 50 100 Total 225 445 159 108 50 50 1,086

1)Investment for 30% equity stake

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CDU CDU-

• 3 Revamp

3 Revamp

FACTS & FIGURES:

• 252 Equipment tags
• 240,000 Pipe DB (Approx.

51 KM pipe length)

• 190 KM cable length
• 1,758 instrument control

loop

• Over 8 million Man Hours

New Crude Tank New Heater

In Operation

S/D for Revamp & MTA

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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects

Projects Details Work Progress as of end Jan’08 SBM Expansion Size : 52” diameter * 14.5 km subsea pipeline (to receive full VLCC @ 2 mn. bbl crude) Cost : US$ 150 mn. C.O.D. : Feb’08

Overall Progress: 100%

• Ready to receive first

crude cargo

Buoy body after painting Main bearing installation

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Details & Progress of Investment Projects Details & Progress of Investment Projects

Projects Details Work Progress as of end Jan’08 TPX Expansion Size : +480 KTA Aromatics +PX 141 KTA +MX 18 KTA +BZ 177 KTA +Tol 144 KTA Cost : US$ 282 mn. EPC : Bechtel PMC : Foster Wheeler C.O.D: : Q1/08 Overall Progress : 95%

• Targeted Mechanical: 15 Mar’08

Completion

• Targeted C.O.D.:

end Mar’08 TPX is being shutdown for 2 months for major turnaround & tie-in with the new facilities.

Piping work Equipment & Structure in MX unit New MX Unit

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Thaioil Marine Thaioil Marine’ ’s New Fleet Expansion s New Fleet Expansion

PTT Group Marine Demand

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TM Expansion (7000 DWT) Thai Vessel PTT Group Demand

BTX Product Bitumen

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TM Expansion (2,500-5,000 DWT) Thai Vessel PTT Group Marine Demand

TPX & ATC

2 4 6 8 10 12 Oil Product Feedstock Chemical Bitumen

Mn TPA KTPA KTPA 25% 25%

18 Million tons p.a.

Export Export Export

SA + Kamee

International Maritime Organization (IMO) starts enforcing the double hull vessel in chemical and oil

products transportation in 2007 and 2010, respectively.

Most of the existing Thai fleets are the single hull type with more than 20 years age. Following the business expansion of PTT Group, Thailand’s export of oil, aromatics products and bitumen

will increase significantly which support Thaioil Marine’s plan to expand its vessel fleet

Acquired one second hand MR vessel (32,000 DWT) since Dec’07 and currently in operation. Two new chemical vessels (7,000 DWT) will be delivered by Jun’08 and Jan’09

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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Molasses Cane Juice+Molasses Cassava+Molasses Cassava

Ethanol Projects Ethanol Projects

• Domestic Ethanol is traded at 17.28 Baht per

Litre (~ US$ 81/bbl).

• Domestic demand is ~ 0.7 Mn L/D vs.

production capacity of > 1.0 Mn L/D.

• To promote Gasohol usage, gap between

ULG95/91 and Gasohol 95/91 has been widened to 4.00 Baht per Litre.

• PTT has started selling Gasohol E20
• Government policy is essential for success of

the Project.

Current Situation

Mn L/D

Domestic Demand / Supply of Ethanol

* Assume 90% gasohol consumed in stead of ULG from 2009 onward

Ethanol Plant Sugar Cane Based Cassava Based Capacity 0.2 mn. L/D 0.5 mn. L/D Feedstock Sugar Cane (~0.8 mn. T/Y) Tapioca chips (~0.5 mn. T/Y)

• Est. Investment

US$ 60 mn. US$ 150 mn. Location Maesod, Tak, Thailand Central, Thailand Partners with TOP

• Padaeng Industry (35%)
• Mitr Phol Sugar Group (35%)

Under discussion Project IRR > 15% > 15% Expected COD Jan’09 Pending Current Status Under Construction Review Feasibility Study and Demand / Supply situation

Demand

24 Source: Prelim Global Lubricant Basestocks Study, Kline - Apr, 07

Japan China Indo Others

Regional TDAE Demand / Supply

KT

• As EU will enforce to use low toxic

extract for tyre and rubber industry in Jan’10 and some Asian countries have already started, regional TDAE demand is expected to grow at 45% CAGR.

100 200 50 150

Demand Supply

2006 2011

D e m a n d + 4 5 % C A G R

TDAE

Strategy: to develop the Specialties products which are friendly to the environment and enhance the higher profit in long term Strategy: to develop the Specialties products which are friendly to the environment and enhance the higher profit in long term

Treated Distillate Aromatics Extract

To upgrade Extract (one of by-products) to higher value product Completed feasibility study & trial production in Q2/07 commercial production will be started in 2008. 1st Phrase production is aimed at 15,000 TPA 2nd phrase to install a new unit with a capacity of 50,000 TPA at US$ 25 mn CAPEX has been approved. COD is expected in 2010.

Thai Lube Thai Lube -

• Specialties Products

Specialties Products

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• Euro IV product specification will be enforced in

Thailand in Jan 2012.

• TOP’s complex configuration allows opportunity

to produce EURO IV products ahead of others.

• Additional investment will be required in 2009-10

to reduce the operating cost down.

Product Specification: EURO III vs. EURO IV

Projects under Development Projects under Development -

• EURO IV

EURO IV

Strategy: to develop environmental friendly products and enhance domestic market share Current Condition

1st Phase commercial production of EURO

IV Gasoil in March 2008.

2nd Phase commercial production of EURO

IV gasoline in 2H 2008

* EPPO will provide incentive at 0.24 Baht/liter for both Gasoline and Gasoil.

PPM

Gasoil Gasoil Gasoline Gasoline

PPM PPM

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Presentation Outline Presentation Outline

2007 Key Highlights 2007 Key Highlights Market Conditions & Financial Performance Market Conditions & Financial Performance Progress of Investment Projects Progress of Investment Projects TOP Group Strategy TOP Group Strategy Conclusion Conclusion

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TOP Group Development TOP Group Development

A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL GROUP OF COMPANIES IN THE REGION

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Others Expansion & New Biz. Crude Oil & Product Prices

THAIOIL’ S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Yesterday Today Future Revenue 1964 : CDU-1 (35 kbd) 1970 : CDU-1/2 (65 kbd) 1989 : HCU-1 (90 kbd) 1992 :

• Buy back TOC1/2
• Diversification program

1993 : CDU-3 / CCR (205 kbd) 1994 : CDU Revamp (220 kbd) 2004 : IPO 2000 : Restructuring 2008 :

• Complex Refinery (275 kbd)
• Integrated / Diversified Business

1964 2008 1986 2016

M & A Refinery GRM Plant Availability Plant Efficiency FX & Interest

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TOP Group Development TOP Group Development

A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL GROUP OF COMPANIES IN THE REGION

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

THAIOIL’ S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Yesterday Today Future Revenue 1964 : CDU-1 (35 kbd) 1970 : CDU-1/2 (65 kbd) 1989 : HCU-1 (90 kbd) 1992 :

• Buy back TOC1/2
• Diversification program

1993 : CDU-3 / CCR (205 kbd) 1994 : CDU Revamp (220 kbd) 2004 : IPO 2000 : Restructuring 2008 :

• Complex Refinery (275 kbd)
• Integrated / Diversified Business

1964 2008 1986 2016

REPUTATION EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

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TOP Group Strategy TOP Group Strategy

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE REPUTATION EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT

Capabilities

• Strong

technological, engineering &

• perational

expertise

• Good

relationship with municipal & surrounding community

• Ability to

produce Euro IV products at low cost prior to others

• Networking

within PTT group

Enablers Strategic Program

Alternative Energy Diversification Strategy Leading Fully Integrated Refining and Petrochemical Companies in Asia-Pacific Organic Growth Value Chain Enhancement M&A

• Inter. Invest.
• Experience in
• il business
• Partnership

with feedstock & technology suppliers

• Experience in

power business (SPP&IPP)

• Knowledge &

expertise in refining and petrochemical industry

• Strong

balance sheet (low gearing ratio)

• Strategic fit

with PTT group aspiration

A B C D E

CAPABILITY DRIVEN STRATEGY CAPABILITY DRIVEN STRATEGY

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M & A International Investment

D

Diversification Alternative Energy

C B

Value Chain Enhancement

A

Organic Growth

TOP Group Strategic Initiatives TOP Group Strategic Initiatives

• 1. Residue Upgrading
• 2. PX Capacity Expansion
• 3. New IPP
• 4. New SPP
• 5. Marine Fleet Expansion
• 1. EURO IV
• 2. Synergy w/ PTT & Other Refineries
• 3. Downstream Aromatics
• 4. TLB Specialties Products
• 1. Municipal Waste Power Plant
• 2. Ethanol Plant
• 1. M & A
• 2. International Investment
• 1. Thaioil Energy Solutions
• 2. MFC Energy Fund

E

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THAIOIL THAIOIL’ ’ S ENABLER PROGRAM S ENABLER PROGRAM

ENABLERS CAPABILITY ENHANCEMENT

• Good Corporate Governance
• Brand Promise Actualization
• CSR Programs
• TOP Energy Solutions

STRATEGIC INITIATIVES

EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE REPUTATION

Organic Growth Value Chain Enhancement Alternative Energy Diversification

• Leadership / Talent Development
• Knowledge Management
• Macro Structure
• HR Alignment
• Employee Brand Engagement
• P O S I T I V E Values

M&A / Inter. Invest.

A

B C D E

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Presentation Outline Presentation Outline

2007 Key Highlights 2007 Key Highlights Market Conditions & Financial Performance Market Conditions & Financial Performance Progress of Investment Projects Progress of Investment Projects TOP Group Strategy TOP Group Strategy Conclusion Conclusion

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Conclusions Conclusions

Despite 2 month CDU3 shutdown and lower refinery throughput in 2007, TOP Group net profit made a record high of over Bt. 19 billion, mainly resulting from:

• early completion of CDU-3 Revamp Project
• proper supply chain management during shutdown
• strong integrated margin
• increase of oil prices high stock gain

We shall put our best effort to meet our stakeholders’ expectation in 2008 by:

• complete TPX expansion project as planned
• launch Euro IV products to capture additional domestic market
• professionally and effectively implement our group strategic

program

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Q & A Q & A

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Thank you Thank you

Should you have any queries, please contact: Should you have any queries, please contact: Investor Relations Investor Relations at email: ir@thaioil.co.th at email: ir@thaioil.co.th Tel: 662 Tel: 662-

• 617

617-

• 8300

8300 Fax: 662 Fax: 662-

• 299

299-

• 0128

0128

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APPENDICES APPENDICES

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Business Outlook Business Outlook

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Regional Oil Demand/Supply Outlook Regional Oil Demand/Supply Outlook

600 1,200 1,800 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 KBD Others Japan India China

Total

China 7,526 100 852 630 350 410 400 2,742 Japan 4,473 56

• 32

19

• 107

India 2,991 64 690 366 60 624 300 2,104 Taiwan 1,293

• Thailand

1,042 50 69

• 119

Vietnam 5

• 121
• 121

Others 7,223 41

• 90
• 250

381 Total 24,553 311 1,611 1,239 429 1,034 950 5,574

2011F 2012F 2010F Kbd Jul '07 Existing 2007F 2008F 2009F

1)The Company

China 6,896 6.5% 7,214 8,603 9,419 5.3% Japan 4,959

• 1.8%

4,758 4,492 4,274

• 2.4%

India 2,384 2.9% 2,495 2,829 3,054 4.2% South Korea 2,235 2.4% 2,299 2,407 2,467 1.7% Thailand 976 3.5% 962 1,074 1,147 2.7% Singapore 869 5.8% 953 1,153 1,313 7.1% Others 5,080 3.4% 5,315 5,838 6,162 3.3% Total Demand 23,399 2.6% 23,996 26,396 27,836 2.9% Total Supply 21,787 2.7% 22,378 25,329 27,114 3.7% ME Sur/(Def) 2,611

• 1.8%

2,458 2,449 3,272 3.8%

% Annual Growth (2006-12F) 2007F 2010F 2012F Kbd 2006A % Growth

Source: FACTS, Fall 2007 issued in October 2007

YoY Demand Growth YoY Capacity Addition

1)

• Regional demand will remain outstrip supply

even with several additional refining capacity projects during 2008-9, mainly in China and India.

• Chinese additional capacity is geared toward

domestic demand. Indian capacity addition is geared for export to US & EU.

• Several new grassroot refinery projects in M/E

(about 840 kbd - mainly in 2010) have been delayed or canceled due to longer delivery time

• f major equipment and high escalating costs.

1) Include Naphtha demand * Total supply is based on 90% utilization rate

Regional Oil Demand1) Asia Pacific Refining Capacity Additions Asia-Pacific Demand/Supply Balance

39

Middle East : CDU Addition Delay Middle East : CDU Addition Delay

• FACTS - Fall 2007 revised the forecast refinery capacity in Middle East buildup from 3

MBD to 3.6 MBD during 2007 – 2015.

• However, the timing of project completion has changed drastically and pushed back in

general.

• Only 0.7 MBD of new CDU was expected to come on stream during 2007- 2010, and

most projects are expected to materialize during 2011-2012

FACTS: SPRING 2007 Middle East CDU additions FACTS: SPRING 2007 Middle East CDU additions FACTS: FALL 2007 Middle East CDU additions FACTS: FALL 2007 Middle East CDU additions

40 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

ATC Esso TPX Demand

PX Business Outlook PX Business Outlook

Domestic PX Demand & Supply Global Total PX Supply / Demand & Operating Rate

KTA

Source: CMAI, March 2007 & Company

Global PX Supply & Demand Growth

• Operating rate is expected to remain high

during 2008-09 due to strong demand growth and delay of PX Projects in China and Middle East.

• Thailand remains net importer of PX until end

2008 when new ATC II project will be completed in Q3/08.

• Strong PX margin is expected to continue till

2009.

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

• Mn. T.

10 11 World Demand Growth Americas Europe Africa/Mideast Asia/Pacific 10 20 30 40 50 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Million Tons 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% America Europe Asia ME/Others

Operating Rate CAGR = 7%

Supply by region Global PX demand

41

Benzene Business Outlook Benzene Business Outlook

Domestic BZ Demand & Supply Global BZ Supply & Demand Growth Global Total BZ Supply / Demand & Operating Rate

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 KTPA

ATC No.1 ROC IRPC TPX ATC No.2 MOC Demand

Source: CMAI, March 2007 & Company

• Average global benzene derivative demand grow

4% per year. Supply addition is more than demand in 2009.

• Thailand remains net exporter of BZ. Supply

addition come from TPX expansion in 1H 2008, PTTAR expansion in 2H 2008 and MOC in 2011.

42

LB Business Outlook LB Business Outlook

Source: Prelim Global Lubricant Basestocks Study, Kline - Apr, 07

• Regional Base Oil demand / supply

growth will be more prominent than the global.

• Shortage of Group I/II supply in the

region will support strong margin on high viscosity grade.

• Group III surplus would put pressure
• n low viscosity base oil.

100 200 300 Demand Supply Group I Group II Group III

2006 2010 2015

Demand + 3.8% CAGR

Regional Base Oil Demand / Supply

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Demand Supply Group I Group II Group III

Global Base Oil Demand / Supply

• Global Base Oil demand is expected

to grow by 2.1% CAGR through 2015.

• Global supply for Group I is expected

to gradually drop and be replaced by Group II and III.

2006 2010 2015

Demand + 2.1% CAGR