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- To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment
- To create a high-performance organization that promotes
teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainability
- To emphasis good Corporate Governance and commit to Corporate
Social Responsibility A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC
VISION MISSION
Ownership & Commitment Social Responsibility Integrity Vision Focus Professionalism Excellent Striving Teamwork & Collaboration Initiative
VALUE
3
Corporate Governance Policy
The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity, and transparency.
Roles and Responsibilities for Stakeholders
- Truthfully report company’s situation and
future trends to all stakeholders equally
- n a timely manner.
- Shall
not exploit the confidential information for the benefit of related parties or personal gains.
- Shall
not disclose any confidential information to external parties.
CG Channels
Should you discover any ethical wrongdoing that is not compliance to CG policies or any activity that could harm the Company’s interest, please inform:
Corporate Management Office Thai Oil Public Company Limited 123 Suntowers Buidling B, 16F Vibhavadi Rangsit Road, Chomphon, Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900 cg-coordinate@thaioil.co.th http://www.thaioil.co.th +66-0-2299-0000
- ext. 7312-5
+66-0-2299-0024
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Q1/10 Highlights Performance Analysis Market Outlook
5
6
Q1/10 Highlights
- A 10-yrs THB 3,000 million bond was issued in April in response to reverse inquiry by local institutional investors.
- In addition, approx. THB 8 billion of 5-yrs credit revolving facilities at attractive terms were entered with 4 major local
banks, in preparation for the maturing USD 200 million revolver.
- Entered into a 50% JV in Sapthip, a 200,000 L/D cassava based ethanol plant in Lopburi with a major cassava exporter.
- TM purchased a new Alframax, a 96,000 DWT petroleum product tanker.
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- GRM rebounded strongly as petroleum supply/demand balance improved – demand higher from broad economic
recovery while supply tightened from low refinery runs.
- Healthy BZ spread from solid demand while PX spread depressed due to slow demand during PTA turnarounds,
Chinese New Year holidays, and higher feedstock cost
- Robust lube base margins due to shortage supply in the region.
Market Condition
- Refinery utilization averaged 94%, as a result of a 15-day scheduled CCR-2 Heat Exchanger maintenance shutdown.
- TPX’s P2F lower due to weaken PX spreads & higher feed cost (platformate & cold MX import).
- TLB has shown strong performance, whilst continued to introduce new product, 900SN lube base oil, to the market.
- Integrated cash operating cost dropped from US$1.2/bbl to US$1.0/bbl, due to improved cost control thru OpX.
- Sought opportunity in price risk management, ~100 MB from oil crack spread and ~50 MB from aromatics.
Performance Business Highlight
8
Performance Analysis
- 5.3
- 5.8
- 3.0
- 4.5
- 3.0
- 4.7
+Limited FO supply
- Western inflow to Asia
9
- 16.4
- 31.2
- 40.0
- 47.5
- 47.8
- 33.7
11.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 9.4 8.3 8.9 7.0 7.0 6.2 8.9 7.3
GO JET
10.5 9.6 8.9 5.1 12.6 8.5
ULG95 HSFO LPG
(controlled price) (Unit: $/bbl)
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
3.8 1.2 0.7
- 1.4
2.7 1.1
Market GRM
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09
+Gasoline rebounded strongly tracking western market +Jet fuel demand slowly pick up due to improved air traffic activities +Strong regional demand against limited supply due to heavy spring refinery maintenance (Unit: $/bbl)
10
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
+ Better US/Global economic recoveries + Improved global oil demand + OPEC keep crude quota unchanged + Geopolitical in Iran and Nigeria + Earthquake in Chile causing2 major refineries’
- utages
- Stronger USD against EURO due to concern over
Greece’s debt
- Fears of tightening monetary policy in China
- Warmer-than-expected weather results in low
heating oil demand
30 50 70 90 110 2009 Q1/10
(Unit: $/bbl)
62 76
Crude Oil Price - Dubai
3.0 2.1 3.1 11
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
- 0.9
3.5 0.4
Q1/09 Q4/09 Q1/10
(Unit: $/bbl)
Stock Gain/Loss
Q1/09 Q1/10
Accounting GRM
(Unit: $/bbl)
30 50 70 90 110 2009 Q1/10
(Unit: $/bbl)
76
Crude Oil Price - Dubai
44 59 68 75 Q4/09
82% 87% 10% 9% 8% 4% 10% 11% 35% 37% 22% 19% 16% 16% 15% 14% 2% 3% Q4/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q1/10
Far East Local Middle East
Q1/10
Sources of Crude
* LPG Market Price – CP Aramco
- 10.7
9.4 8.9
- 3.0
12.6
*
LPG Platformate Gasoline Jet Diesel FO
Spread over Dubai (US$/bbl)
12
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
Q4/09
*
Spread over Dubai (US$/bbl)
- 17.2
7.3 6.2
- 4.5
5.1
- Diversified into more exotic and cheaper crude.
- Maximize GO production to capture domestic price premium and
EURO 4 incentive
48% 13% 10% 1% 13% 11% 4% Domestic Jobbers
Q1/2010 Sales Breakdown Export = 15% 79% 85% 21% 15% Q4/09 Q1/10
Export Domestic (KBD) Refinery Intake
259
TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales 13
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
155 128 80 319 53 734 147 127 86 335 50 746
Q4/09 Q1/10 722 699 690 734 746 711 131 215 221 202 138 192
87% 89% 88% 86% 89% 87% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Others Utilization Rate
Domestic Oil Demand / Refinery Intake
Source: DOEB, Ministry of Energy.
Domestic Oil Demand
(KBD) (KBD)
LPG Jet/Kero Diesel FO Gasoline Total Demand
262
+16% +5% +8%
- 5%
- 6%
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Utilization Q4/09 Q1/10 91% 84%
- PX margin squeezed due to
Surplus PX during PTA turnaround period & Chinese New Year holidays PX buyers were on the sidelines waiting for further prices fall Higher feedstock cost
- Nippon Oil and CNOOC run
cut to 80% and 75% pushed BZ price and spread though
- ver supply remained
- Imported Cold MX to fulfill
PX utilization further pressured P2F
105 123 123 105 119 2 1 25 37 42 43 34 20 46 39 44 29 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 TL BZ MX PX
(Kton/Quarter)
Aromatics Spot Prices & Margins TPX’s Product Sales & P2F
$/ton 157 155 159 154 120 $/bbl 20.6 20.3 21.0 20.2 15.7
14
158 20.7
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
PX ULG95 BZ Q1/09 Q2 Q3 PX-ULG95
384 475 355 321 286
BZ-ULG95
- 60
79 160 178 215
(US$/Ton)
Q4
384 89
Q1/10
*Revised aromatics price to Platts since Q2/09
MX
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
- Higher Base Oil spread from
Bullish import by Indonesia due to Pertamina plant’s furnace blast which caused at least 9 months closure Seasonal peak for lubricant replacement Base Oil plants T/A during Mar10 Lower FO prices widened base oil spread
- Robust Chinese and SEA
demand for public projects pushed Bitumen price and margin higher
(Kton/Quarter)
Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins TLB’s Product Sales & P2F
$/ton 97 99 96 126 115 $/bbl 14.8 15.1 14.5 19.0 17.4
53 72 67 64 64 23 41 36 39 36 60 81 82 84 87 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10
Bitumen TDAE/Extract /Slack Wax Base Oil
15
104 15.8
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
500SN-HSFO
398 264 404 429 435
Bitumen-HSFO
70
- 5
- 3
- 23
26
Q1/09 Q2 Q3
(US$/Ton)
500SN HSFO Bitumen Q4
374 10
Q1/10
Utilization Q4/09 Q1/10 98% 92%
6.3 5.0 3.7 2.4 5.4 4.3 5.5 10.8 4.4 5.8 5.7 6.1 3.8 1.2 0.7
- 1.4
2.7 1.1
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09
20.6 20.3 20.7 20.2 15.7 20.7
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09
14.8 15.1 14.5 19.0 17.4 15.8
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09
Crude Product to Feed Product to Feed
(US$/bbl) (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)
Market GRM*
* which excluded stock gain and loss Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09 (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)
Market GIM Accounting GIM 16
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09
.
Refinery Utilization Aromatic Production Lube Base Production Plant Availability Plant Utilization Ship Utilization SAKC Utilization Q4/09 Q1/10 2.1 3.1 P2F
(US$/ton)
Acc GRM
(US$/bbl)
P2F
(US$/ton)
154 120 126 115 94%* 95% 91% 84%* 99% 65%* 74% 81% 94% 91%*
(Unit: MB)
AP Rate
(Baht/KW hour)
0.28 0.30
Q1/10 Net Profit Breakdown
98% 92%
NP ∆QoQ
92% Q4/09 Q1/10 76%
1,926 2,006 781 867 278
- 13
79 10 38
+25% +253%
- 46%
- 20%
- 113%
+25% +100%
- 37%
17
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
*MTA 42 days *CCR-2 S/D 15 days *Imported cold MX * 26-day dry-docking for Thaioil 2 and MTA for Thaioil 9
5.2 1.6 1.9 FY/08 FY09 Q1/10
71,687 73,637 23,924 28,490 42,134 40,959
(Unit: MB)
Trade Payable / Others LT Debt*
143,086 137,745
FY/09 Equities Current Assets Non-Current Assets Q1/10
Balance Sheet
* Including current portion of Long-Term Debt
US$ Bond 35% US$ Loan 7% THB Bond 36% THB Loan 22% 86% 9% 5% 0% Total LT Debt
- Bt. 40,959 mn.
(US$ 1,259 mn.)
Consolidated Long-Term Debt 1)
1) Including current portion of Long-Term Debt
Net Debt
- Bt. 28,207 mn.
(US$ 867 mn.)
Q1/10
0.7 0.5 0.4 FY/08 FY/09 Q1/10
As of 31 March 2010 (32.53 THB/US$)
Financial Ratios
Net Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / Equity
≤ 2.0x ≤ 1.0x Interest Rate Currencies 48% Float 58% THB 52% Fixed 42% USD Cost of Debt TOP Group 3.99%
18
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
(Net Debt 28,207) (Net Debt 34,196)
19
2010 Market Outlook
- Macroeconomics
- Petroleum Market
- Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Market
- Conclusion
- April 2010 Market Highlight
Crude up by escalator down by free fall on investors’ fear of sovereign default Massive refinery maintenance supported middle distillate margins Concerns over ample supply curbed aromatic margins Higher base oil & bitumen demand
500SN-FO: 416 436 497 545 Bitumen-FO: -23 26 15 39
Q4 Q1 April May
Dubai: 75 76 84 77 MO-DB: 5 13 10 8 FO-DB: -4 -3 -8 -6 Jet-DB: 7 9 11 11 GO-DB: 6 9 11 11
‘09 ‘10
TL-UG95: 121 129 105 88 PX-UG95: 338 302 250 255 BZ-UG95: 178 215 199 186
‘10
Weaker gasoline market after Vietnam and Indonesia refineries back from outage
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
20
Macroeconomics Outlook
21
22
Economic Sentiment Unemployment
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
Industrial Production Retail Sales
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 9 11 13 15 17 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2009 2010 millions
JP
(RHS)
US EU
15 25 35 45 55 65 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2009 2010
US EU IN CN JP
10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25%
- 12%
- 8%
- 4%
0% 4% 8% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2009 2010 %YoY
US EU CN
(RHS)
JP
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2009 2010
US EU CN JP
(RHS)
23
- 0.6%
+4.2%
- 6%
- 3%
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
%YoY China India Japan Thailand US EU World Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, 22 April 10
2010 World GDP Outlook
The worst is over A year of recovery
- IMF sees 4.2% growth in 2010 world GDP, lead by emerging Asian countries
- Thai 1Q-10 GDP is expected to grow at 8% - 9%YoY
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
- High level of sovereign
debt in Euro zone countries
- Contagious risks of debt
default on public and private sector
- High Inflation and asset
price bubble risks in China
- PBOC continuously raised
interest rate and reserve requirement ratio
- Increase down payment
for home purchase
- US reform bill is pending
for Senate votes
- Curb speculation by
introducing stricter rules
- n risky trades
- Trading activities might be
moved to unregulated
- verseas market
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
24
Petroleum Market
25
26
- IEA expects global oil demand in 2010 to grow by
1.6 MBD from a year earlier to 86.6 MBD, mainly in Asia and the Middle East
- OPEC increased its supply to capture rising oil
prices and recovering oil demand
Global Oil Demand OPEC-11 Supply
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, May 2010 Source: OPEC, Monthly Oil Market Report, May 2010
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
56% 55% 52% 51%
- 40%
- 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MBD 2010 2007 2008 2009
Target
2010
Demand (mbd) Growth (mbd) IEA 86.40 +1.62 EIA 85.59 +1.57 OPEC 85.26 +0.95
86.5 86.2 84.4 84.1 85.3 85.9 86.3 86.0 87.0 87.2 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 MBD Source: EIA , IEA, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report May 2010
27
- US stock market recently dropped more than
7% in one week due as risk appetite fell on EU debts worries
- USD continues to strengthened against EUR
- n the back of deteriorating EU economy
- Net long positions in WTI futures & options
decreased as investors fled to from risky assets
30 45 60 75 90 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 $/bbl Positions
WTI vs DJI WTI Price & Net Long Positions WTI vs USD:EUR
1.2500 1.2800 1.3100 1.3400 1.3700 1.4000 70 75 80 85 90 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 USD:EUR $/bbl WTI $/Euro 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 70 75 80 85 90 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Pts $/bbl WTI DJI
Source: CFTC Source: Reuters
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
28
81 81 83 44.12 75.42 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 2009 2010
2010 Crude Price Forecast
Source : Bloomberg, TOP
2010 WTI Price Forecast As of $/BBL Fortis 14-Aug-09 77.50 UBS 17-Nov-09 75.00 Standard Chartered 27-Jan-10 82.00 Barclays 05-Feb-10 85.00 Societe Generale 12-Feb-10 85.90 JPMorgan 25-Feb-10 83.50 BNP Paribas 18-Mar-10 82.00 ING 25-Mar-10 82.00 Deutsche Bank 09-Apr-10 70.96 Credit Suisse 19-Apr-10 82.90 Mean 11-May-10 80.68
2009 WTI 2009 Dubai 2010 WTIF 2010 DubaiF
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
29
- 1,000
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 CN IN JP KR TW SG TH ID VN Other AP KBD
2009: 24,600 MBD 2010: 25,130 MBD
Asia Pacific Demand Growth 2%
- Demand in Asia Pacific increases 2% or 530 KBD in 2010, esp. from China (+480 KBD) and
India (+110 KBD), while demand from Japan declines by nearly 200 KBD
- New 540 KBD additional capacity will come on stream this year, mostly from China (+320
KBD) and India (+230 KBD)
Source: FACTS Spring 2010 Source: FACTS Spring 2010
- 3,000
- 2,500
- 2,000
- 1,500
- 1,000
- 500
500 1,000 1,500 2007 2008 2009 2010 KBD Fuel Oil Diesel Kero/jet Gasoline Naphtha LPG
Asia Pacific Net Product Balance
Import Export
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
30
Massive maintenance capped refinery run in Asia and Europe
- Massive maintenance during Mar-Apr limited refinery run in
Europe and N. Asia
- Refinery run for OECD countries is likely to remain low for the
rest of the year due to un-competitiveness and higher cost
- China’s refinery input hit record high of 8.4 MBD in April
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report May 2010
31
Source: Morgan Stanley, Reuters, JBC
Middle Distillate Stocks – Onshore Floating
mBBL US EU-16 SG Global Dec-09 160 415 15 100 Mar-10 145 410 13 50 Change
- 15
- 5
- 2
- 50
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
Aromatics, Base Oil, Solvent
32
33
- Fabric sale seasonally increases preparing for
summer clothing
- Fabric demand is expected to reach the peak
by end of Q2
PX SUMMER SEASONAL DEMAND
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
Plants delay
NEW CAPACITY DELAY
PX-KTPA BZ-KTPA Company, Site China Q4/10 1,000 350 Urumqi PC (Delay) Q1/10 250 Tianjin PC Q2/10 250 Zhenhai, Zhejiang 2012 200 Fushun PC (Delay) Thailand Q1/10 230 MOC, Rayong Singapore Q1/10 160 Shell, Bukom
- PET bottle demand is rising during summer in
Western and NEA
- 2 big events, Chinese Expo and World Cup in
Africa, are expected to boost the PET bottle consumption
Source: PCI Source: CMAI, TOP
33
Benzene Bisphenol A
56%
Styrene Monomer (SM)
Polystyrene (PS) Styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) Phenol resins Polycarbonate Epoxy resins
Other Nitrobenzene
18%
Cumene Phenol
Polyamide Nylon 6 Polyamide Nylon 6,6 Aniline
6% 4%
Adipic Acid Hexamethylene Diamine (HMDA)
9%
Cyclohexane
Acetone Caprolactum LAB
Surfactant in Detergent
3%
Maleic Anhydride
Unsaturated Polyester
4%
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
34
- China lubricant demand accounted for almost 40%
- f total AP demand in 2009
- Q1’10 China car sales up 70% yoy, implying high
lubricant demand for personal & commercial vehicle
- Industrial lubricant contributed almost 50% of total
Chinese lubricant demand
- Industrial on the move with 2010 Chinese GDP
expected to grow at double digit rate
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
Source : Bloomberg
35
41 KT 49 KT QoQ YoY 30 KT 49 KT
- Strong economic growth
- Expected sales growth
GDP (%YoY) 2009 2010F Thailand
- 2.3%
+5.5% Vietnam +5.3% +6.0%
BEATING THE TARGET GROWTH & SYNERGY
Thailand Application
April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion
Source : IMF
36
Conclusion
37
Rapid economic recovery but some risks remain Crude prices expect to finish ~74 $/bbl in Q2 , with upside potential in H2 Improved oil demand, stock drawdown and low refinery run supported GRM High aromatic demand, despite new supply, keeps spreads buoyant Strong regional economy increases base oil and bitumen demand
Market Highlight
Optimized production amidst plant maintenance S/D and margin outlook Improve margin through dynamic marketing strategy and synergy with PTT group Crude flexibility : First SEA refinery to buy ESPO Investment diversification : Sapthip, Alframax New opportunity in price risk management
Operational Excellence
39
Q & A
40
Thank You
Any queries, please contact: Investor Relations at email: ir@thaioil.co.th Tel: 662-299-0000 Fax: 662-299-0128
41
42
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand by Sector LPG Demand Highlight
- LPG Demand in Q1/10 grew 14% YoY mainly
from skyrocketed petrochemical demand:
- Household +12% YoY
- Transportation -3% YoY
- Industry +57% YoY
- Petrochemical +27% YoY
Outlook 2010
- Expect 17% LPG demand growth in 2010,
largely from industrial and petrochemical industry demand following global economic recovery
- GSP 6 delay starts up due to MTP impact;
consequently, government needs to import more than 100 KT per month
800 729 802 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010
- 100
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2007 2008 2009 2010 ML/Mth Petrochem Industry Transport Household
43
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand Gasoline Demand Gasoline Demand by Grade
ULG95 2% ULR91 38% GSH95 40% GSH91 19% E20 1%
2009
Gasoline Demand Highlight
- Gasoline demand turned negative 5% YoY
in Q1/10 due to higher retail price comparing to last year
- Average ethanol replacement is 1.25
ML/Day
Outlook 2010
- Expect slow down in gasoline demand in
2010:
- Higher retail gasoline price will
continue to pressure down demand
- Expect higher gasohol consumption
pushed by government intervention
606 592 620 638 500 550 600 650 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010 ULG95 2% ULR91 40% GSH95 37% GSH91 20% E20 1%
Q1/2010
200 250 300 350 400 450 500 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2008 2009 2010 mml / month # of aircraft
Relationship between aircraft movement and JP-1 demand
# of Flights (lhs) JP 1 Demand
JET Demand Highlight
- Skyrocketed demand in Q1/10 (+9% YoY) due
to better tourism from tourist country’s economic recovery (number of tourist flights increased 14% YoY in Q1/10)
Outlook 2010
- Expect low Jet demand growth in 2010:
- Political instability and red shirt
congregation deteriorate Jet demand
- Higher commodities export and import
demand in 2010 from gradually growth in global economic situation will help push up some demand 44
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET-A1 demand and # of flights
425 387 422 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010
- 200
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2007 2008 2009 2010 ML/Mth B5 B2 B0
Gasoil Demand Highlight
- Gasoil demand grown 0.3% YoY in Q1/10
- Portion of B2:B5 is 56:44 in 2009 and 59:41
in Q1/10
- Lower portion of B5 consumption since price
gap between B2 and B5 is lower comparing to 2009
- Average biodiesel replacement is
1.68 ML/day in 2009 and 1.72 ML/day in Q1/10
Outlook 2010
- Expect slow down in gasoil demand growth
in 2010:
- Higher diesel price still pressure on
demand even government try to capture retail price under 30B/Litre
- Increasing biodiesel replacement from
government policy to increase biodiesel portion 45
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand Gasoil Demand Consumption of B2 and B5
1565 1546 1688 1,506 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010
- 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2007 2008 2009 2010 ML/Mth Others & Article 10 Electricity Industry Transportation
Fuel Oil Demand Highlight
- FO demand growth turned positive 9% YoY
in Q1/10 since there were some EGAT demand in Feb-Mar during pipeline gas from Burma was under operation
Outlook 2010
- Expect slow down in Fuel Oil demand
growth in 2010:
- Substitution of low cost fuels like coal,
LPG and NG in both industry and electricity sectors
- However, higher industrial utilization
will lift some demand 46
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand by Sector
210 216.5 292.4
- 100
200 300 400 500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010