http://www.thaioil.co.th The information contained in this - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

http thaioil co th the information contained in this
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

http://www.thaioil.co.th The information contained in this - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

http://www.thaioil.co.th The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain,


slide-1
SLIDE 1

http://www.thaioil.co.th

slide-2
SLIDE 2

The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.

2

slide-3
SLIDE 3
  • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment
  • To create a high-performance organization that promotes

teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainability

  • To emphasis good Corporate Governance and commit to Corporate

Social Responsibility A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC

VISION MISSION

Ownership & Commitment Social Responsibility Integrity Vision Focus Professionalism Excellent Striving Teamwork & Collaboration Initiative

VALUE

3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Corporate Governance Policy

The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity, and transparency.

Roles and Responsibilities for Stakeholders

  • Truthfully report company’s situation and

future trends to all stakeholders equally

  • n a timely manner.
  • Shall

not exploit the confidential information for the benefit of related parties or personal gains.

  • Shall

not disclose any confidential information to external parties.

CG Channels

Should you discover any ethical wrongdoing that is not compliance to CG policies or any activity that could harm the Company’s interest, please inform:

Corporate Management Office Thai Oil Public Company Limited 123 Suntowers Buidling B, 16F Vibhavadi Rangsit Road, Chomphon, Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900 cg-coordinate@thaioil.co.th http://www.thaioil.co.th +66-0-2299-0000

  • ext. 7312-5

+66-0-2299-0024

4

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Q1/10 Highlights Performance Analysis Market Outlook

5

slide-6
SLIDE 6

6

Q1/10 Highlights

slide-7
SLIDE 7
  • A 10-yrs THB 3,000 million bond was issued in April in response to reverse inquiry by local institutional investors.
  • In addition, approx. THB 8 billion of 5-yrs credit revolving facilities at attractive terms were entered with 4 major local

banks, in preparation for the maturing USD 200 million revolver.

  • Entered into a 50% JV in Sapthip, a 200,000 L/D cassava based ethanol plant in Lopburi with a major cassava exporter.
  • TM purchased a new Alframax, a 96,000 DWT petroleum product tanker.

7

  • GRM rebounded strongly as petroleum supply/demand balance improved – demand higher from broad economic

recovery while supply tightened from low refinery runs.

  • Healthy BZ spread from solid demand while PX spread depressed due to slow demand during PTA turnarounds,

Chinese New Year holidays, and higher feedstock cost

  • Robust lube base margins due to shortage supply in the region.

Market Condition

  • Refinery utilization averaged 94%, as a result of a 15-day scheduled CCR-2 Heat Exchanger maintenance shutdown.
  • TPX’s P2F lower due to weaken PX spreads & higher feed cost (platformate & cold MX import).
  • TLB has shown strong performance, whilst continued to introduce new product, 900SN lube base oil, to the market.
  • Integrated cash operating cost dropped from US$1.2/bbl to US$1.0/bbl, due to improved cost control thru OpX.
  • Sought opportunity in price risk management, ~100 MB from oil crack spread and ~50 MB from aromatics.

Performance Business Highlight

slide-8
SLIDE 8

8

Performance Analysis

slide-9
SLIDE 9
  • 5.3
  • 5.8
  • 3.0
  • 4.5
  • 3.0
  • 4.7

+Limited FO supply

  • Western inflow to Asia

9

  • 16.4
  • 31.2
  • 40.0
  • 47.5
  • 47.8
  • 33.7

11.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 9.4 8.3 8.9 7.0 7.0 6.2 8.9 7.3

GO JET

10.5 9.6 8.9 5.1 12.6 8.5

ULG95 HSFO LPG

(controlled price) (Unit: $/bbl)

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

3.8 1.2 0.7

  • 1.4

2.7 1.1

Market GRM

Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09

+Gasoline rebounded strongly tracking western market +Jet fuel demand slowly pick up due to improved air traffic activities +Strong regional demand against limited supply due to heavy spring refinery maintenance (Unit: $/bbl)

slide-10
SLIDE 10

10

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

+ Better US/Global economic recoveries + Improved global oil demand + OPEC keep crude quota unchanged + Geopolitical in Iran and Nigeria + Earthquake in Chile causing2 major refineries’

  • utages
  • Stronger USD against EURO due to concern over

Greece’s debt

  • Fears of tightening monetary policy in China
  • Warmer-than-expected weather results in low

heating oil demand

30 50 70 90 110 2009 Q1/10

(Unit: $/bbl)

62 76

Crude Oil Price - Dubai

slide-11
SLIDE 11

3.0 2.1 3.1 11

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

  • 0.9

3.5 0.4

Q1/09 Q4/09 Q1/10

(Unit: $/bbl)

Stock Gain/Loss

Q1/09 Q1/10

Accounting GRM

(Unit: $/bbl)

30 50 70 90 110 2009 Q1/10

(Unit: $/bbl)

76

Crude Oil Price - Dubai

44 59 68 75 Q4/09

slide-12
SLIDE 12

82% 87% 10% 9% 8% 4% 10% 11% 35% 37% 22% 19% 16% 16% 15% 14% 2% 3% Q4/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q1/10

Far East Local Middle East

Q1/10

Sources of Crude

* LPG Market Price – CP Aramco

  • 10.7

9.4 8.9

  • 3.0

12.6

*

LPG Platformate Gasoline Jet Diesel FO

Spread over Dubai (US$/bbl)

12

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

Q4/09

*

Spread over Dubai (US$/bbl)

  • 17.2

7.3 6.2

  • 4.5

5.1

  • Diversified into more exotic and cheaper crude.
  • Maximize GO production to capture domestic price premium and

EURO 4 incentive

slide-13
SLIDE 13

48% 13% 10% 1% 13% 11% 4% Domestic Jobbers

Q1/2010 Sales Breakdown Export = 15% 79% 85% 21% 15% Q4/09 Q1/10

Export Domestic (KBD) Refinery Intake

259

TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales 13

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

155 128 80 319 53 734 147 127 86 335 50 746

Q4/09 Q1/10 722 699 690 734 746 711 131 215 221 202 138 192

87% 89% 88% 86% 89% 87% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Others Utilization Rate

Domestic Oil Demand / Refinery Intake

Source: DOEB, Ministry of Energy.

Domestic Oil Demand

(KBD) (KBD)

LPG Jet/Kero Diesel FO Gasoline Total Demand

262

+16% +5% +8%

  • 5%
  • 6%
slide-14
SLIDE 14

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Utilization Q4/09 Q1/10 91% 84%

  • PX margin squeezed due to

 Surplus PX during PTA turnaround period & Chinese New Year holidays  PX buyers were on the sidelines waiting for further prices fall  Higher feedstock cost

  • Nippon Oil and CNOOC run

cut to 80% and 75% pushed BZ price and spread though

  • ver supply remained
  • Imported Cold MX to fulfill

PX utilization further pressured P2F

105 123 123 105 119 2 1 25 37 42 43 34 20 46 39 44 29 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 TL BZ MX PX

(Kton/Quarter)

Aromatics Spot Prices & Margins TPX’s Product Sales & P2F

$/ton 157 155 159 154 120 $/bbl 20.6 20.3 21.0 20.2 15.7

14

158 20.7

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

PX ULG95 BZ Q1/09 Q2 Q3 PX-ULG95

384 475 355 321 286

BZ-ULG95

  • 60

79 160 178 215

(US$/Ton)

Q4

384 89

Q1/10

*Revised aromatics price to Platts since Q2/09

MX

slide-15
SLIDE 15

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

  • Higher Base Oil spread from

Bullish import by Indonesia due to Pertamina plant’s furnace blast which caused at least 9 months closure Seasonal peak for lubricant replacement Base Oil plants T/A during Mar10 Lower FO prices widened base oil spread

  • Robust Chinese and SEA

demand for public projects pushed Bitumen price and margin higher

(Kton/Quarter)

Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins TLB’s Product Sales & P2F

$/ton 97 99 96 126 115 $/bbl 14.8 15.1 14.5 19.0 17.4

53 72 67 64 64 23 41 36 39 36 60 81 82 84 87 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10

Bitumen TDAE/Extract /Slack Wax Base Oil

15

104 15.8

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

500SN-HSFO

398 264 404 429 435

Bitumen-HSFO

70

  • 5
  • 3
  • 23

26

Q1/09 Q2 Q3

(US$/Ton)

500SN HSFO Bitumen Q4

374 10

Q1/10

Utilization Q4/09 Q1/10 98% 92%

slide-16
SLIDE 16

6.3 5.0 3.7 2.4 5.4 4.3 5.5 10.8 4.4 5.8 5.7 6.1 3.8 1.2 0.7

  • 1.4

2.7 1.1

Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09

20.6 20.3 20.7 20.2 15.7 20.7

Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09

14.8 15.1 14.5 19.0 17.4 15.8

Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09

Crude Product to Feed Product to Feed

(US$/bbl) (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)

Market GRM*

* which excluded stock gain and loss Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09 (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)

Market GIM Accounting GIM 16

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 FY/09

slide-17
SLIDE 17

.

Refinery Utilization Aromatic Production Lube Base Production Plant Availability Plant Utilization Ship Utilization SAKC Utilization Q4/09 Q1/10 2.1 3.1 P2F

(US$/ton)

Acc GRM

(US$/bbl)

P2F

(US$/ton)

154 120 126 115 94%* 95% 91% 84%* 99% 65%* 74% 81% 94% 91%*

(Unit: MB)

AP Rate

(Baht/KW hour)

0.28 0.30

Q1/10 Net Profit Breakdown

98% 92%

NP ∆QoQ

92% Q4/09 Q1/10 76%

1,926 2,006 781 867 278

  • 13

79 10 38

+25% +253%

  • 46%
  • 20%
  • 113%

+25% +100%

  • 37%

17

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

*MTA 42 days *CCR-2 S/D 15 days *Imported cold MX * 26-day dry-docking for Thaioil 2 and MTA for Thaioil 9

slide-18
SLIDE 18

5.2 1.6 1.9 FY/08 FY09 Q1/10

71,687 73,637 23,924 28,490 42,134 40,959

(Unit: MB)

Trade Payable / Others LT Debt*

143,086 137,745

FY/09 Equities Current Assets Non-Current Assets Q1/10

Balance Sheet

* Including current portion of Long-Term Debt

US$ Bond 35% US$ Loan 7% THB Bond 36% THB Loan 22% 86% 9% 5% 0% Total LT Debt

  • Bt. 40,959 mn.

(US$ 1,259 mn.)

Consolidated Long-Term Debt 1)

1) Including current portion of Long-Term Debt

Net Debt

  • Bt. 28,207 mn.

(US$ 867 mn.)

Q1/10

0.7 0.5 0.4 FY/08 FY/09 Q1/10

As of 31 March 2010 (32.53 THB/US$)

Financial Ratios

Net Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / Equity

≤ 2.0x ≤ 1.0x Interest Rate Currencies 48% Float 58% THB 52% Fixed 42% USD Cost of Debt TOP Group 3.99%

18

Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials

(Net Debt 28,207) (Net Debt 34,196)

slide-19
SLIDE 19

19

2010 Market Outlook

  • Macroeconomics
  • Petroleum Market
  • Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Market
  • Conclusion
  • April 2010 Market Highlight
slide-20
SLIDE 20

Crude up by escalator down by free fall on investors’ fear of sovereign default Massive refinery maintenance supported middle distillate margins Concerns over ample supply curbed aromatic margins Higher base oil & bitumen demand

500SN-FO: 416 436 497 545 Bitumen-FO: -23 26 15 39

Q4 Q1 April May

Dubai: 75 76 84 77 MO-DB: 5 13 10 8 FO-DB: -4 -3 -8 -6 Jet-DB: 7 9 11 11 GO-DB: 6 9 11 11

‘09 ‘10

TL-UG95: 121 129 105 88 PX-UG95: 338 302 250 255 BZ-UG95: 178 215 199 186

‘10

Weaker gasoline market after Vietnam and Indonesia refineries back from outage

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

20

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Macroeconomics Outlook

21

slide-22
SLIDE 22

22

Economic Sentiment Unemployment

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

Industrial Production Retail Sales

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 9 11 13 15 17 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2009 2010 millions

JP

(RHS)

US EU

15 25 35 45 55 65 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2009 2010

US EU IN CN JP

10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25%

  • 12%
  • 8%
  • 4%

0% 4% 8% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2009 2010 %YoY

US EU CN

(RHS)

JP

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2009 2010

US EU CN JP

(RHS)

slide-23
SLIDE 23

23

  • 0.6%

+4.2%

  • 6%
  • 3%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

%YoY China India Japan Thailand US EU World Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, 22 April 10

2010 World GDP Outlook

The worst is over A year of recovery

  • IMF sees 4.2% growth in 2010 world GDP, lead by emerging Asian countries
  • Thai 1Q-10 GDP is expected to grow at 8% - 9%YoY

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

slide-24
SLIDE 24
  • High level of sovereign

debt in Euro zone countries

  • Contagious risks of debt

default on public and private sector

  • High Inflation and asset

price bubble risks in China

  • PBOC continuously raised

interest rate and reserve requirement ratio

  • Increase down payment

for home purchase

  • US reform bill is pending

for Senate votes

  • Curb speculation by

introducing stricter rules

  • n risky trades
  • Trading activities might be

moved to unregulated

  • verseas market

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

24

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Petroleum Market

25

slide-26
SLIDE 26

26

  • IEA expects global oil demand in 2010 to grow by

1.6 MBD from a year earlier to 86.6 MBD, mainly in Asia and the Middle East

  • OPEC increased its supply to capture rising oil

prices and recovering oil demand

Global Oil Demand OPEC-11 Supply

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, May 2010 Source: OPEC, Monthly Oil Market Report, May 2010

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

56% 55% 52% 51%

  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MBD 2010 2007 2008 2009

Target

2010

Demand (mbd) Growth (mbd) IEA 86.40 +1.62 EIA 85.59 +1.57 OPEC 85.26 +0.95

86.5 86.2 84.4 84.1 85.3 85.9 86.3 86.0 87.0 87.2 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 MBD Source: EIA , IEA, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report May 2010

slide-27
SLIDE 27

27

  • US stock market recently dropped more than

7% in one week due as risk appetite fell on EU debts worries

  • USD continues to strengthened against EUR
  • n the back of deteriorating EU economy
  • Net long positions in WTI futures & options

decreased as investors fled to from risky assets

30 45 60 75 90 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 $/bbl Positions

WTI vs DJI WTI Price & Net Long Positions WTI vs USD:EUR

1.2500 1.2800 1.3100 1.3400 1.3700 1.4000 70 75 80 85 90 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 USD:EUR $/bbl WTI $/Euro 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 70 75 80 85 90 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Pts $/bbl WTI DJI

Source: CFTC Source: Reuters

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

slide-28
SLIDE 28

28

81 81 83 44.12 75.42 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 2009 2010

2010 Crude Price Forecast

Source : Bloomberg, TOP

2010 WTI Price Forecast As of $/BBL Fortis 14-Aug-09 77.50 UBS 17-Nov-09 75.00 Standard Chartered 27-Jan-10 82.00 Barclays 05-Feb-10 85.00 Societe Generale 12-Feb-10 85.90 JPMorgan 25-Feb-10 83.50 BNP Paribas 18-Mar-10 82.00 ING 25-Mar-10 82.00 Deutsche Bank 09-Apr-10 70.96 Credit Suisse 19-Apr-10 82.90 Mean 11-May-10 80.68

2009 WTI 2009 Dubai 2010 WTIF 2010 DubaiF

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

slide-29
SLIDE 29

29

  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 CN IN JP KR TW SG TH ID VN Other AP KBD

2009: 24,600 MBD 2010: 25,130 MBD

Asia Pacific Demand Growth 2%

  • Demand in Asia Pacific increases 2% or 530 KBD in 2010, esp. from China (+480 KBD) and

India (+110 KBD), while demand from Japan declines by nearly 200 KBD

  • New 540 KBD additional capacity will come on stream this year, mostly from China (+320

KBD) and India (+230 KBD)

Source: FACTS Spring 2010 Source: FACTS Spring 2010

  • 3,000
  • 2,500
  • 2,000
  • 1,500
  • 1,000
  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2007 2008 2009 2010 KBD Fuel Oil Diesel Kero/jet Gasoline Naphtha LPG

Asia Pacific Net Product Balance

Import Export

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

slide-30
SLIDE 30

30

Massive maintenance capped refinery run in Asia and Europe

  • Massive maintenance during Mar-Apr limited refinery run in

Europe and N. Asia

  • Refinery run for OECD countries is likely to remain low for the

rest of the year due to un-competitiveness and higher cost

  • China’s refinery input hit record high of 8.4 MBD in April

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report May 2010

slide-31
SLIDE 31

31

Source: Morgan Stanley, Reuters, JBC

Middle Distillate Stocks – Onshore Floating

mBBL US EU-16 SG Global Dec-09 160 415 15 100 Mar-10 145 410 13 50 Change

  • 15
  • 5
  • 2
  • 50

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Aromatics, Base Oil, Solvent

32

slide-33
SLIDE 33

33

  • Fabric sale seasonally increases preparing for

summer clothing

  • Fabric demand is expected to reach the peak

by end of Q2

PX SUMMER SEASONAL DEMAND

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

Plants delay

NEW CAPACITY DELAY

PX-KTPA BZ-KTPA Company, Site China Q4/10 1,000 350 Urumqi PC (Delay) Q1/10 250 Tianjin PC Q2/10 250 Zhenhai, Zhejiang 2012 200 Fushun PC (Delay) Thailand Q1/10 230 MOC, Rayong Singapore Q1/10 160 Shell, Bukom

  • PET bottle demand is rising during summer in

Western and NEA

  • 2 big events, Chinese Expo and World Cup in

Africa, are expected to boost the PET bottle consumption

Source: PCI Source: CMAI, TOP

33

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Benzene Bisphenol A

56%

Styrene Monomer (SM)

Polystyrene (PS) Styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) Phenol resins Polycarbonate Epoxy resins

Other Nitrobenzene

18%

Cumene Phenol

Polyamide Nylon 6 Polyamide Nylon 6,6 Aniline

6% 4%

Adipic Acid Hexamethylene Diamine (HMDA)

9%

Cyclohexane

Acetone Caprolactum LAB

Surfactant in Detergent

3%

Maleic Anhydride

Unsaturated Polyester

4%

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

34

slide-35
SLIDE 35
  • China lubricant demand accounted for almost 40%
  • f total AP demand in 2009
  • Q1’10 China car sales up 70% yoy, implying high

lubricant demand for personal & commercial vehicle

  • Industrial lubricant contributed almost 50% of total

Chinese lubricant demand

  • Industrial on the move with 2010 Chinese GDP

expected to grow at double digit rate

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

Source : Bloomberg

35

slide-36
SLIDE 36

41 KT 49 KT QoQ YoY 30 KT 49 KT

  • Strong economic growth
  • Expected sales growth

GDP (%YoY) 2009 2010F Thailand

  • 2.3%

+5.5% Vietnam +5.3% +6.0%

BEATING THE TARGET GROWTH & SYNERGY

Thailand Application

April 2010 Market Highlight Macroeconomics Petroleum Market Aromatics, Base Oil & Solvent Conclusion

Source : IMF

36

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Conclusion

37

slide-38
SLIDE 38

Rapid economic recovery but some risks remain Crude prices expect to finish ~74 $/bbl in Q2 , with upside potential in H2 Improved oil demand, stock drawdown and low refinery run supported GRM High aromatic demand, despite new supply, keeps spreads buoyant Strong regional economy increases base oil and bitumen demand

Market Highlight

Optimized production amidst plant maintenance S/D and margin outlook Improve margin through dynamic marketing strategy and synergy with PTT group Crude flexibility : First SEA refinery to buy ESPO Investment diversification : Sapthip, Alframax New opportunity in price risk management

Operational Excellence

slide-39
SLIDE 39

39

Q & A

slide-40
SLIDE 40

40

Thank You

Any queries, please contact: Investor Relations at email: ir@thaioil.co.th Tel: 662-299-0000 Fax: 662-299-0128

slide-41
SLIDE 41

41

slide-42
SLIDE 42

42

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand by Sector LPG Demand Highlight

  • LPG Demand in Q1/10 grew 14% YoY mainly

from skyrocketed petrochemical demand:

  • Household +12% YoY
  • Transportation -3% YoY
  • Industry +57% YoY
  • Petrochemical +27% YoY

Outlook 2010

  • Expect 17% LPG demand growth in 2010,

largely from industrial and petrochemical industry demand following global economic recovery

  • GSP 6 delay starts up due to MTP impact;

consequently, government needs to import more than 100 KT per month

800 729 802 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010

  • 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2007 2008 2009 2010 ML/Mth Petrochem Industry Transport Household

slide-43
SLIDE 43

43

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

Thailand Gasoline Demand Gasoline Demand by Grade

ULG95 2% ULR91 38% GSH95 40% GSH91 19% E20 1%

2009

Gasoline Demand Highlight

  • Gasoline demand turned negative 5% YoY

in Q1/10 due to higher retail price comparing to last year

  • Average ethanol replacement is 1.25

ML/Day

Outlook 2010

  • Expect slow down in gasoline demand in

2010:

  • Higher retail gasoline price will

continue to pressure down demand

  • Expect higher gasohol consumption

pushed by government intervention

606 592 620 638 500 550 600 650 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010 ULG95 2% ULR91 40% GSH95 37% GSH91 20% E20 1%

Q1/2010

slide-44
SLIDE 44

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2008 2009 2010 mml / month # of aircraft

Relationship between aircraft movement and JP-1 demand

# of Flights (lhs) JP 1 Demand

JET Demand Highlight

  • Skyrocketed demand in Q1/10 (+9% YoY) due

to better tourism from tourist country’s economic recovery (number of tourist flights increased 14% YoY in Q1/10)

Outlook 2010

  • Expect low Jet demand growth in 2010:
  • Political instability and red shirt

congregation deteriorate Jet demand

  • Higher commodities export and import

demand in 2010 from gradually growth in global economic situation will help push up some demand 44

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET-A1 demand and # of flights

425 387 422 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010

slide-45
SLIDE 45
  • 200

400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2007 2008 2009 2010 ML/Mth B5 B2 B0

Gasoil Demand Highlight

  • Gasoil demand grown 0.3% YoY in Q1/10
  • Portion of B2:B5 is 56:44 in 2009 and 59:41

in Q1/10

  • Lower portion of B5 consumption since price

gap between B2 and B5 is lower comparing to 2009

  • Average biodiesel replacement is

1.68 ML/day in 2009 and 1.72 ML/day in Q1/10

Outlook 2010

  • Expect slow down in gasoil demand growth

in 2010:

  • Higher diesel price still pressure on

demand even government try to capture retail price under 30B/Litre

  • Increasing biodiesel replacement from

government policy to increase biodiesel portion 45

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

Thailand Gasoil Demand Consumption of B2 and B5

1565 1546 1688 1,506 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010

slide-46
SLIDE 46
  • 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2007 2008 2009 2010 ML/Mth Others & Article 10 Electricity Industry Transportation

Fuel Oil Demand Highlight

  • FO demand growth turned positive 9% YoY

in Q1/10 since there were some EGAT demand in Feb-Mar during pipeline gas from Burma was under operation

Outlook 2010

  • Expect slow down in Fuel Oil demand

growth in 2010:

  • Substitution of low cost fuels like coal,

LPG and NG in both industry and electricity sectors

  • However, higher industrial utilization

will lift some demand 46

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand by Sector

210 216.5 292.4

  • 100

200 300 400 500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov ML/Mth 2007 2008 2009 2010