HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

February 13, 2014

HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Study Phase 2B Draft Results

Presentation By

Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.

Presentation To:

HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force

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TEMS, Inc.

WASHINGTON-RICHMOND-HAMPTON ROADS CORRIDOR IS PART OF SEHSR

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TEMS, Inc.

HRTPO BOARD RESOLUTION (OCTOBER 2009)

The Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization (HRTPO) Resolution #2009-05 provides an overarching vision for development

• f rail passenger service to the Hampton Roads region.

The resolution endorses:

• Designation of a “High-Speed Rail” corridor along the NS/Route 460 corridor; and
• Enhancement of existing intercity passenger rail service along the CSXT/I-64

corridor.

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TEMS, Inc.

ORIGINALLY, DEVELOPMENT “STEPS” WERE DEFINED

FOR BOTH THE PENINSULA AND SOUTHSIDE ROUTES

*Note: Norfolk Southern (NS) does not permit passenger train maximum authorized speed in excess of 79-mph on any NS track. Where the V-line (former Virginian Railway) has existing freight services, maximum authorized speed for passenger trains will be 79-mph. Along the Algren – Kenyon portion of the V-line (over which NS freight rail service has been formally abandoned), passenger rail planners may consider speeds above 79-mph.

HRTPO Focus DRPT Focus

Steps Route Max Speed

• No. of

Trains Infrastructure Station Step 1 I-64/CSXT 79 mph 2 Shared Track Schedule Enhancement Main Street Bowers Hill Route 460/Norfolk Southern 79 mph 1-3 Shared Track NS Staples Mill Only Norfolk Step 2 I-64/CSXT 79 mph 3 Shared Track Main Street Newport News (existing) Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 79-90 mph* 4-6 Shared Track V Line Main Street Bowers Hill Step 3 I-64/CSXT 90 mph 4-6 Shared Track Main Street Newport News Downtown/Airport Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 110 mph 8-12 Dedicated Track V Line Main Street Bowers Hill Step 4 I-64/CSXT 110 mph 6-9 Dedicated Track Main Street Newport News Downtown/Airport Route 460/Norfolk Southern 150 mph 12-16 Dedicated Electric Track V-Line Main Street Bowers Hill

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TEMS, Inc.

… BUT, RECENTLY THE FOCUS HAS BEEN ON REFINING

PLAN FOR THE SOUTHSIDE SERVICE TO NORFOLK

Steps Route Max Speed

• No. of

Trains Infrastructure Station

Step 3 Norfolk-Richmond along Route 460 110 mph 8-12 Dedicated Track V Line Main Street Bowers Hill Step 4 Norfolk-Richmond along Route 460 150 mph+ 12-16 Dedicated Electric Track V Line Main Street Bowers Hill Focus of the HRTPO Passenger Rail Study

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TEMS, Inc.

TEMS STUDIES. . .

Phase 1A Phase 1B Phase 2A Phase 2B

Phase 1A: Preliminary Study of High Speed Rail Potential Phase 1B: Blueprint Study Developing High and Higher Speed Rail Phase 2A: Data Collection for Norfolk-Richmond Corridor Phase 2B: Vision Plan Alternatives Analysis: Norfolk-Richmond Corridor

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TEMS, Inc.

TRAIN TECHNOLOGY HAS ADVANCED SINCE 2010!

Electric HST 160-220 mph

• Business Model of the Midwest

Regional Rail Initiative

• Speeds up to 130-mph on dedicated

high speed tracks;

• Tier I Compliant trains for Shared

tracks in urban areas

• Low Center of Gravity Diesel

Locomotives

• Passive Tilting
• Existing +New Alignment
• Business Model of California HSR
• Speeds up to 220-mph on dedicated high

speed tracks;

• Tier I Compliant trains for Shared tracks

in urban areas

• Low Center of Gravity Electric

Locomotives

• Passive Tilting
• Existing +New Alignment

Diesel HrST 90-130 mph

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TEMS, Inc.

VISION PLAN ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS: NORFOLK-RICHMOND ROUTE OPTIONS

Southern Option 1B Stations Southern Option 1A Northern Option 2A Northern Option 2B Richmond Direct Option 3 Options 1B/2B Shared (NS)

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TEMS, Inc.

MARKET STUDY AREA - BOSTON TO CHARLOTTE: RIDERSHIP & REVENUE ANALYSIS

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TEMS, Inc.

SUMMARY OF NORFOLK TO WASHINGTON, DC HIGH SPEED TRAIN SCHEDULE RESULTS

Stations Super Express Express Local Norfolk √ √ √ Bowers Hill √ √ √ Suffolk – – √ Petersburg/Hopewell* – √ √ Richmond Main St √ √ √ Ashland – – √ Fredericksburg – √ √ Quantico – – √ Alexandria √ √ √ Washington Union √ √ √ 130-mph Total Trains 4 trains 5 trains 4 trains 130-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 2:36 2:46 3:01 130-mph Time Richmond Direct 2:31 2:36 2:51 220-mph Total Trains 5 trains 10 trains 3 trains 220-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 1:45 1:55 2:10 220-mph Time Richmond Direct 1:38 1:43 1:58 * Petersburg and Hopewell stations are bypassed by Route Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

130/220 MPH HIGH-SPEED PASSENGER RAIL RIDERSHIP FORECAST-ANNUAL PERSON TRIPS: NORFOLK-RICHMOND-WASHINGTON, DC CORRIDOR

3.54 3.49 3.71 5.15 5.00 5.33

• 1.00

2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

2025 Annual High-Speed Ridership (million trips)

130 mph 220 mph

* 130 mph: 1 in 6 people in the Norfolk – Washington Corridor make 1 round trip/year * 220 mph: 1 in 4 people in the Norfolk – Washington Corridor make 1 round trip/year

Notes: Ridership from existing Peninsula service is not included in this figure. Additionally, ridership forecast assumptions include development of SEHSR service, NEC Master Plan service, Norfolk to DC HSR service, and 3 trains a day from Newport News to DC.

130-mph 220-mph 130-mph 220-mph 130-mph 220-mph Southside service to Richmond/Petersburg 0.30 0.45 0.29 0.45 0.33 0.50 Southside service to points between DC and Richmond 0.47 0.87 0.47 0.87 0.59 1.01 Southside service to DC 0.69 1.13 0.69 1.13 0.82 1.27 Southside service to points north of DC 0.28 0.55 0.28 0.55 0.32 0.62

Note: Southside service includes departures from Norfolk, Bowers Hill, and Suffolk.

Option 1 via Petersburg Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

Forecast Annual Person Trips

(millions)

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TEMS, Inc.

130/220 MPH HIGH-SPEED PASSENGER RAIL REVENUE FORECAST-ANNUAL REVENUE: NORFOLK-RICHMOND-WASHINGTON, DC CORRIDOR

$185.80 $182.00 $194.20 $320.10 $311.70 $323.90 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

2025 Annual High-Speed Revenues (million 2012$)

130 mph 220 mph

Notes: Revenue from existing Peninsula service is not included in this figure. Additionally, revenue forecast assumptions include development of SEHSR service, NEC Master Plan service, Norfolk to DC HSR service, and 3 trains a day from Newport News to DC.

130-mph 220-mph 130-mph 220-mph 130-mph 220-mph Southside service to Richmond/Petersburg 7.52 $ 14.54 $ 7.47 $ 14.45 $ 8.36 $ 15.81 $ Southside service to points between DC and Richmond 34.56 $ 69.17 $ 34.54 $ 69.09 $ 40.83 $ 75.85 $ Southside service to DC 58.42 $ 102.15 $ 58.39 $ 102.06 $ 66.36 $ 108.41 $ Southside service to points north of DC 22.31 $ 49.33 $ 22.33 $ 49.05 $ 24.50 $ 53.47 $

Note: Southside service includes departures from Norfolk, Bowers Hill, and Suffolk.

Forecast Annual Revenue

(millions) Option 1 via Petersburg Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

2025 FINANCIAL RESULTS (MILLIONS 2012$)

130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph

Total Revenue $210.30 $357.43 $210.30 $357.43 Total Cost $132.95 $179.51 $132.95 $179.51 Operating Surplus

$77.35 $177.92 $77.35 $177.92 Operating Ratio 1.58 1.99 1.58 1.99

Financial 2025 (mill. 2012$)

Southern Option 1 - Via Petersburg Southern Option 1A - Southern Option 1B -

Option 3: 220 mph has the largest operating surplus and highest

• perating ratio.

Option 3 - Richmond 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph Total Revenue 206.17 $ 348.32 $ 206.17 $ 348.32 $ 218.79 $ 360.99 $ Total Cost 131.57 $ 175.77 $ 131.57 $ 175.77 $ 134.63 $ 178.63 $ Operating Surplus 74.60 $ 172.55 $ 74.60 $ 172.55 $ 84.16 $ 182.36 $ Operating Ratio 1.57 1.98 1.57 1.98 1.63 2.02 Northern Option 2 - Via Hopewell Direct Northern Option 2A Northern Option 2B Financial 2025 (million 2012$)

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TEMS, Inc.

CAPITAL COSTS BY SEGMENT: 220 MPH (2013$ MILLIONS)

Option 3: 220 mph is the lowest cost

• ption

Equipment $590,000 $590,000 $590,000 Richmond to Washington, DC $3,439,910 $3,439,910 $3,439,910 Newport News to Richmond N/A N/A N/A Norfolk to Richmond $3,320,923 $3,235,350 $3,121,971 Total $7,350,833 $7,265,260 $7,151,881 OPTION 2A Northern Greenfield/Hopewell 2B NS via I-295/Hopewell 3 Richmond Direct 130 mph option costs 75% of the 220 mph option Equipment $590,000 $590,000 Richmond to Washington, DC $3,439,910 $3,439,910 Newport News to Richmond N/A N/A Norfolk to Richmond $3,318,834 $3,261,481 Total $7,348,743 $7,291,391 OPTION 1A Southern Greenfield/Petersburg 1B NS via Petersburg

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TEMS, Inc.

COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS 130/220 MPH (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS AT 3%)

130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph Total Benefits 8,295 $ 12,245 $ 8,295 $ 12,245 $ 8,175 $ 11,969 $ 8,175 $ 11,969 $ 8,609 $ 12,503 $ Total Costs 5,997 $ 8,102 $ 5,966 $ 8,060 $ 5,975 $ 8,060 $ 5,929 $ 7,996 $ 5,902 $ 7,943 $ NPV (Surplus) 2,298 $ 4,143 $ 2,329 $ 4,185 $ 2,199 $ 3,910 $ 2,245 $ 3,973 $ 2,707 $ 4,560 $ Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.38 1.51 1.39 1.52 1.37 1.49 1.38 1.50 1.46 1.57 3% Discount (million 2012$) Option 1A Option 1B Option 2A Option 2B Option 3 Southern Greenfield NS Northern Greenfield NS Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

SUMMARY OF RESULTS

• 1. 220 mph technology has better results than 130 mph technology
• 2. Options evaluated for Norfolk – Richmond had very comparable

results:

• All had positive Operating Ratios
• All had positive Operating Surpluses
• All had Cost Benefit Ratio over 1.0
• All had Franchisable and PPP potential
• 3. No Fatal Flaws in Environmental Scan
• 4. Option 3 Richmond Direct at 220 mph has:
• Best Cash Flow and Financial Results
• Best Cost Benefit Results

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TEMS, Inc.

ADDITIONAL ALTERNATIVE TO CONSIDER

• Potential synergies with Peninsula are worth

pursuing for Option 3 in particular –

• Same access to Richmond
• Parallel route for 20 miles
• Easy connection to CSX
• Potential low cost link to Toano

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TEMS, Inc.

OPTION 4 RICHMOND DIRECT IMPROVED

Peninsula Schedule

• 8-10 trains per day
• 2 hour schedule to

Washington HRTPO Board Objectives

• This option meets

Board Objectives for both the Peninsula and Southside

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TEMS, Inc.

OPTION 4 RICHMOND DIRECT IMPROVED

• Option 4 Richmond Direct Improved –
• Achieves Board Objectives for Peninsula and Southside
• Significant Synergies for Ridership
• Capital Cost likely to be only a 10% increase over Option 3

Richmond Direct

• Both Financial and Economic Returns are likely to be

significantly higher for Option 4

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TEMS, Inc.

COMPARISON OF ANNUAL RIDERSHIP FOR OPTION 3 & OPTION 4:

NORFOLK-RICHMOND-WASHINGTON, DC CORRIDOR WITH PENINSULA SERVICE

*

Note: This figure includes ridership for both the Southside and Peninsula service at 220-mph. *Option 4 is expected to generate increased ridership, however a portion of the Option 4 ridership is comprised of diverted trips from Southside service to Peninsula service rather than newly generated trips.

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TEMS, Inc.

ANNUAL PENINSULA PASSENGER RAIL RIDERSHIP

FOR VARIOUS OPTIONS

Note: This graphic only reflects ridership for the Peninsula service. Base Case and Options 1-3 assume three conventional Amtrak trains per day on the Peninsula, while Option 4 assumes eight to ten trains per day on the Peninsula with high speed service beginning at Toano.

• 1. Source: Amtrak, Commonwealth of Virginia Amtrak Fact Sheet for Fiscal Year 2013
• 2. Source: TEMS, Inc., Hampton Roads Passenger Rail Vision Plan Alternatives Analysis (Draft), Jan. 2014

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TEMS, Inc.

COMPARISON OF DEMAND FORECASTS TO FEIS STUDY OPTION 1: MODEL CALIBRATION

Time Daily Round Trips 2025 Annual Hampton Roads- Based Rail Trips (million) 2025 Annual Hampton Roads- Based Rail Revenue (million $)

FEIS* Alternative 1 90 mph 1:35 6 1.11 $69.12 TEMS Southern Option via Petersburg Assuming FEIS Option 1 Levels of Service 1:35 6 1.16 $76.70

Note: Both the Tier I FEIS and TEMS Hampton Roads Passenger Rail study based ridership and revenue projections on a market database for the entire Boston-Charlotte study area. *Source: Richmond/Hampton Roads Passenger Rail Project Alternative Analysis and Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement, 2009.

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TEMS, Inc.

NEXT STEPS

• Public Comment on Draft Report
• HRTPO Board meeting on March 20, 2014:

─ Present Phase 2B draft results ─ Present potential Passenger Rail Task Force recommendations to further study phases:

─ Pursue Supplement to Phase 2B report that provides engineering and environmental analysis for Option 4 Richmond Direct Improved (Toano to Richmond) ─ Develop a Service Development Plan for Hampton Roads to Richmond Corridor

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TEMS, Inc.

THANK YOU