Presentation To: HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force HRTPO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presentation To: HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force

December 17, 2013

HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasts

Presentation By

Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.

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TEMS, Inc.

COMPASS™ Forecasting Process

Base Year Socio- Economics Demand Model Calibration

• Total Demand
• Induced Demand
• Modal Split

Base Year Matrix Transportation Strategies Travel Demand Model Run Financial Analysis User Benefit Analysis Economic Rent Analysis Transport Network Origin- Destination Data Trip Matrices Stated Preference Survey Economic Scenarios Forecast Year Trip Matrices Revenue Analysis

Data Requirement Model System Development Evaluation Process

Forecasting Assumptions

Travel Demand Forecasts

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TEMS, Inc.

Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecast Study Area Zone System

State Number of Zones Connecticut 5 Delaware 1 District of Columbia 10 Maryland 70 Massachusetts 7 New Jersey 16 New York 9 North Carolina 43 Pennsylvania 5 Rhode Island 5 Virginia 162 Total Number of Zones 333

PETERSBURG JAMES CITY GLOUCESTER COUNTY POQUOSON WILLIAMSBURG NEWPORT NEWS HAMPTON ISLE OF WIGHT NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH VIRGINIA BEACH SUFFOLK CHESAPEAKE YORK COUNTY

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TEMS, Inc.

Hampton Roads Region Zones Zoom-In

NEWPORT NEWS

HAMPTON ROADS

VIRGINIA BEACH CHESAPEAKE SUFFOLK NORFOLK HAMPTON PORTSMOUTH ISLE OFWIGHT POQUOSON YORK COUNTY GLOUCESTER COUNTY WILLIAMSBURG JAMES CITY COUNTY

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TEMS, Inc.

Sources for Socioeconomic Database

• U.S. Census Bureau
• Hampton Roads Planning District Commission
• Richmond Regional Planning District Commission
• Crater Planning District Commission
• Virginia Employment Commission
• Metropolitan Washington County of Governments
• Baltimore Metropolitan Council
• Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.

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TEMS, Inc.

Socioeconomic Growth Projection for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

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TEMS, Inc.

Attributes Included in COMPASS™ Transportation Networks

Public Modes Auto Time In-Vehicle Time Travel Time Access/Egress Time Congestion Delay Transfer Time Wait Time Costs Fare Operating Costs* Access/Egress Costs Tolls* Parking Cost Parking Costs* Schedule Service Frequency

* Divided by occupancy

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TEMS, Inc.

Sources of Transportation Networks

Transportation networks were based on:

• State and Local Departments of Transportation

highway databases

• National Highway System (NHS) database
• Amtrak schedules
• Airline schedules
• The ten percent sample of airline tickets
• Greyhound schedules
• Megabus schedules

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TEMS, Inc.

COMPASS™ Networks

• The COMPASS™ Networks include the following

networks from Charlotte, NC to Boston, MA (including the Hampton Roads area, Richmond, VA, Washington, DC, and New York, NY):

• Intercity Highway
• Passenger Rail
• Air
• Intercity Bus

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TEMS, Inc.

Sources of Base Year Trip Database

• The Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) Air Ticket

Database

• T-100 Air Market and Segment Database
• Greyhound and Megabus Schedules
• Previous travel origin-destination surveys
• State department of transportation (Virginia, Maryland,

Washington, DC, North Carolina, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts) highway traffic volume Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data

• Amtrak passenger rail ridership data
• Amtrak station volume data
• TEMS 2012 Virginia Travel Survey

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TEMS, Inc.

Base Year 2012 Annual Intercity Travel Market for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

Person Trips by Mode (million) Travel Market Share by Mode

Total Base Year 2012 Annual Person Trips: 58.97 Million

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TEMS, Inc.

Values of Time, Frequency, and Access Time

VOT (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Car Rail Business $44.45 $11.07 $19.42 $22.51 Commuter

• $7.15

$14.80 $18.80 Social $31.76 $8.54 $16.88 $17.88 VOF (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $28.81 $7.33 $18.58 Commuter $6.50 $13.67 Social $26.28 $7.75 $16.13 VOA (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $62.91

• $42.73

Commuter

• $8.89

$29.15 Social $47.94 $10.77 $37.66

• Intercity value of time is larger than intraurban value of time due to longer trip length, this explains

why commuters have lower value of time, which have more intraurban trips than other trip purposes

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TEMS, Inc.

Future Crude Oil Price Projections

• Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/

*EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated

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TEMS, Inc.

Future Gasoline Price Projections

• Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/

*EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated

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TEMS, Inc.

Automobile Highway Fuel Efficiency Projections

• Estimated based on Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA)

historical automobile highway energy intensities data

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TEMS, Inc.

Gasoline Price Projections Adjusted by Fuel Efficiency Improvement

*EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated

• Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/

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TEMS, Inc.

Highway Congestion Estimates

2012 Travel Time 2025 Estimated Travel Time Norfolk, VA - Richmond, VA 1Hour 40Min 1Hour 55Min Norfolk, VA - Petersburg, VA 1Hour 35Min 1Hour 43Min

• Corridor Highway Travel Time Projection

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TEMS, Inc.

COMPASS™ Hierarchical Travel Demand Model Structure

Total Demand Public Modes Auto Air Surface Modes Rail Bus LEVEL 4 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 2 Southside/Norfolk Route Peninsula Route LEVEL 1

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TEMS, Inc.

Travel Utility Estimation Process

Step 2: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus

Rail: )] exp( ) [exp(

Peninsula Rail South Rail Rail Rail Rail

U U Ln U + + = β α Bus:

Bus Bus Bus

GC U β =

Step 4: Compute Utilities for Public and Auto Step 5: Compute Total Utility

Public:

)] exp( ) [exp(

Air Surface Public Public Public

U U Ln U + + = β α

Auto:

Auto Auto Auto

GC U β = Total: )] exp( ) [exp(

Public Auto Total

U U Ln U + =

Reference:

• Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, Moshe Ben-Akiva and Steven R.

Lerman, The MIT Press 1987

Step 3: Compute Utilities for Surface and Air

Surface: Air:

Air Air Air

GC U β = )] exp( ) [exp(

Bus Rail Surface Surface Surface

U U Ln U + + = β α

Rail Southside/Norfolk Route:

South Rail South Rail South Rail South Rail

GC U β α + =

Rail Peninsula Route:

Peninsula Rail Peninsula Rail Peninsula Rail

GC U β =

Step 1: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus

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TEMS, Inc.

Study Area Travel Market Forecast – Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

• Average annual travel demand growth: 0.9%

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TEMS, Inc.

130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast- Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

• Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast- Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

• Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast- Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

• Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips
• Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast- Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte

• Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips
• Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast – Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025

130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR

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TEMS, Inc.

Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast – Northern Option 2 via Hopewell 2025

130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR

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TEMS, Inc.

Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast – Option 3 Richmond Direct 2025

130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR

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TEMS, Inc.

Sources of HSR Trips- Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025

130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR

• Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors

that contribute to growth in demand

• Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation

system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand

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TEMS, Inc.

Sources of HSR Trips- Northern Option 2 via Hopewell 2025

130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR

• Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors

that contribute to growth in demand

• Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation

system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand

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TEMS, Inc.

Sources of HSR Trips- Option 3 Richmond Direct 2025

130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR

• Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors

that contribute to growth in demand

• Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation

system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand

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TEMS, Inc.

2025 Annual Station Volumes – 130 MPH

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

2025 Annual Station Volumes – 220 MPH

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

2025 Annual Segment Loadings – 130 MPH

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

2025 Annual Segment Loadings – 220 MPH

Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct

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TEMS, Inc.

Comparison to AECOM 2009 Study Option 1

Time Daily Round Trips 2025 Annual Hampton Road- Based Rail Trips (million) 2025 Annual Hampton Road- Based Rail Revenue (million $) AECOM Option 1 90 MPH 1:35 6 1.11 $69.12 TEMS Southern Option via Petersburg Assuming AECOM Option 1 Levels of Service 1:35 6 1.16 $76.7

• Source: Richmond/Hampton Roads Passenger Rail Project Alternative Analysis

and Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement by AECOM, 2009

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TEMS, Inc.

Contribution of Service and Market Factors to TEMS Forecast of 2025 Annual Rail Trips

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TEMS, Inc.

Apples-to-Apples Comparison to Amtrak NEC Master Plan and Next-Gen HSR (Internal Intercity Trips Only)

2025 Hampton Roads- Washington Corridor - 130 MPH 2025 Hampton Roads- Washington Corridor - 220 MPH 2030 NEC Master Plan (Constrained Acela) 2030 NEC Next-Gen HSR (220 MPH) 2030 NEC Master Plan NYC-DC Corridor (Constrained Acela) 2030 NEC Next-Gen HSR NYC-DC Corridor (220 MPH) Rail Trip Rate (trips per 10,000 person per day) 6.83 10.29 14.18 16.64 18.86 22.19

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TEMS, Inc.

Appendix

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TEMS, Inc.

Stated Preference Survey Deployment

On-Site Survey Team Actual Deployment & Online Survey

TEMS conducted the stated preference survey in order to

• Update Value of Time (VOT), Value of Frequency (VOF), and Value of

Access/Egress (VOA) in the study area

• Update the modal choice model and total demand model for the passenger rail

ridership and revenue forecasts

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TEMS, Inc.

Stated Preference Survey Counts

Actual Survey Counts

Location Field & Online Count (Actual) DMV 1,377 Airport 573 Amtrak 690 Bus 96 TOTAL 2,736

TOTAL of VOT’s, VOF’s & VOA’s for all modes = 3,792

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VOT Calculation Results

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VOF Calculation Results

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VOA Calculation Results

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TEMS, Inc.

Thank You