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How many times does it take a smoker to quit smoking? Michael - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
How many times does it take a smoker to quit smoking? Michael - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
How many times does it take a smoker to quit smoking? Michael Chaiton A life history of smoking ONTARIO TOBACCO SURVEY 4500 ONTARIO SMOKERS (18+) FOLLOWED EVERY 6 MONTHS FOR UP TO 3 YEARS Median attempt for daily smoker: 7 days * Percent
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ONTARIO TOBACCO SURVEY
4500 ONTARIO SMOKERS (18+) FOLLOWED EVERY 6 MONTHS FOR UP TO 3 YEARS
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Median attempt for daily smoker: 7 days*
Percent who relapse after 1 year smoke-free: 29
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Is it a quit attempt if it doesn’t last a day?
- 9% of serious quit attempts
don’t last 24 hours
- More likely to have higher
intentions to quit, higher dependence
- 24 hours is an outcome not
a start
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HOW MANY TIMES DO SMOKERS TRY BEFORE QUITTING FOR GOOD?
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We don’t really know
- 1. Cross-sectional
- 2. Biased recall of quit
attempts
- 3. Based only on successful
quitters
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Designing a conclusive study
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- Use cross-sectional age
specific mortality rates to create a theoretical cohort lasting from birth to death.
- Use quit attempt specific
success rates to create a theoretical cohort lasting from the first to the last quit attempt.
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New methodology
Use standard life table methodology to create a lifetime cohort Outcome successful quitting rather than death
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Ontario Tobacco Survey
- Included 1277 current
smokers at baseline who made a serious quit attempt in the first 3 follow ups
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.05 .1 .15 1 2 3 4 5
Quit attempt number
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.02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10
Quit attempt number
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.2 .4 .6 .8 1
Percent Survival
10 20 30 40
Quit attempt number
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A more realistic value?
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A more realistic value?
Can make other assumptions
Recalled attempts among successful quitters 6.3 attempts
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A more realistic value?
Can make other assumptions
Every quit attempt has the same chance
- f success
19.6 attempts
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A more realistic value?
Can make other assumptions
Using the lifetable, but including recalled attempt 142 attempts
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Implications
- 5-7 attempts underestimates the difficulty in
quitting
- A substantial proportion of smokers are never
successful at quitting
- How should the difficulty of quitting be
communicated? A larger question.
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Findings from the Ontario Tobacco Survey and
- ther OTRU studies. To see a poster online and for