How can the Conservative Party reach out to ethnic minority voters? James Kanagasooriam, Onward
The challenge
Roughly half of BAME voters currently say they would never vote Conservative. 1. The share of the electorate that is BAME and mixed race is growing rapidly and 2. looks set to increase the number of no-go areas for the party. The situation shows signs of getting worse. 3. The 2017 General Election revealed the true electoral cost for lack of engagement 4. and support amongst BAME voters. The reasons for lack of BAME support appear to be different amongst differing 5. BAME groups. It’s not just about income – White low-income voters were the group most likely to 6. switch to the Conservatives at GE 2017
The story so far
This is not a new problem… Source: Ashcroft Polls, April 2012
The story, 2010 to 2017 Source: Ipsos Mori
New Onward polling shows the scale of the challenge... Source: For each of the following, where would you put yourself on a scale of 0-100 Populus (where 100 means you completely agree, 0 means you completely disagree)
Most party support, within voting segments, should look like this For each of the following, where would you put yourself on a scale of 0-100 in feeling that party is for people like me (where 100 means you completely agree, 0 means you completely disagree) Source: Populus
For white voters, we see the same rejector /supporter distribution between both main parties Source: Populus Rejectors Neutrals Supporters
But for BAME voters, we see different pattern. Cons have almost no strong supporters Source: Populus Rejectors Supporters Neutrals
Changing ethnicity by age, England and Wales Source: Census 17.2m 19.5m 10.2m 9.2m White Mixed Asian 80% 84% Black 92% 95% Other 4% 2% 10% 9% 1% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0-24 25-49 50-64 65+
If BAME vote (net Indian vote) is >30%, Tories can’t win Source: House of Commons library, Census
As BAME vote trends to 10%, a seat is more likely to be Labour than Tory Source: House of Commons library, Census
The future
The situation can improve. Conservative conversion of BAME considerers is low… Source: House of Commons library, White voters 2017 Census, Onward BAME voters Modelling, British 100 100 % future, IPSOS Mori % Did not vote 2017 This report Rejectors Did not vote 2017 Rejectors shows there is clear scope for the party to Considerers improve its performance Considerers among ethnic Vote 2017 minorities, as Weak supporters Vote 2017 the proportion of Weak supporters BAME voters Promoters grows Promoters Composition of GE 2017 Composition of GE 2017 Con vote Con vote Conversion = 70% (45% / 64%) Conversion = 36% (19% / 53%)
We have begun working out how different BAME voter groups voted by seat with Using a cutting edge statistical technique (MRP) we have begun the task of understanding how different minority groups vote differently in every seat in England and Wales. This, coupled with the ability to model through likely changes in the composition of the ethnic composition of the country, means we are beginning to understand the precise seats that could fall as a) BAME population increases b) the BAME vote flexes between parties. Much of the modelling is provisional and subject to change, but it illustrates the political consequences of BAME vote change and growth as a share of the population.
Cons either need 2% white swing, or 12% BAME swing to off-set expected BAME growth rates by 2031 to avoid losing seats
The seats that fall by 2031 (-6% decline in white population on Rees projections…) Ethnic Population Projections for the UK and Local Areas, 2011-2061: New Results for the Fourth Demographic Transition Leeds University Philip Rees, Pia Wohland, Stephen Clark, Nik Lomax , Paul Norman These are seats that progressively go from Conservative to Labour as the white population across the country goes down 1%. By 2031 the white % of the country will have decreased 6% from today. These are the seats most likely to fall given ethnic composition
Reversing these stats are the key… not the numbers Source: Ashcroft Polls, April 2012
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