Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel North Sea IIIa IIIa, , IVb,c IVb,c - PDF document

Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Working Group 2 Group 2 Working North Sea IIIa North Sea IIIa, , IVb,c IVb,c & VIId & VIId Pelagic RAC RAC Pelagic ICES Advice Recommendations Recommendations � MSY = unknown Horse Mackerel and Blue Whiting Horse Mackerel and Blue Whiting � Precautionary approach = unknown � Management plan = none TACs 2011 2011 TACs � EU Policy = category 11 � TAC 2010 =47454 London 11 th Oct. 2010 Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel North Sea IIIa IIIa, , IVb,c IVb,c & VIId & VIId North Sea North Sea IIIa North Sea IIIa, , IVb,c IVb,c & VIId & VIId Category 11 TACs should be adjusted towards recent P RAC ADVICE 2011 real catch levels but should not be changed by more than 15% per year or � Category 11 recent real catch levels Member States should develop an implementation plan to provide advice � TAC 2011 = 47,500 (Same as 2010) within a short time. No increase in fishing effort. Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Western Western IIa IIa, , IVa IVa, , Vb Vb, , VIa,VIIa VIa,VIIa- -c,e c,e- -k k & & VIIIa VIIIa- -e e Western Western IIa IIa, , IVa IVa, , Vb Vb, , VIa,VIIa VIa,VIIa- -c,e c,e- -k k & & VIIIa VIIIa- -e e Category 4 ICES Advice � MSY = Less than 229,000 The TAC must be set following the � Precautionary approach = n/a relevant plan. This category � Management plan = 181,000 overrides other categories. � EU Policy = category 4 � TAC 2010 = 185,000

Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Western IIa Western IIa, , IVa IVa, , Vb Vb, , VIa,VIIa VIa,VIIa- -c,e c,e- -k k & & VIIIa VIIIa- -e e Southern Stock IXa Southern Stock IXa ICES Advice P RAC ADVICE 2011 � MSY = N/A � Management Plan Category 4 � Precautionary approach = 25,000 � Management plan = none � TAC 2011 = 181,000 � EU Policy = category 6 � TAC 2010 = 31,142 Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Horse Mackerel Southern Stock IXa Southern Stock IXa Southern Stock IXa IXa Southern Stock Category 6 Aim to set the TAC according to STECF PRAC Advice advice but do not change the TAC by � Accept Category 6 more than 15%. ICES States � TAC 2011 = 26,500 � 20% decrease average estimated abundance last two years compared to three preceding years 15% decrease in TAC . Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock I- I -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV I- -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV I � MSY = 50,700 to 223,000 t 50,700 to 223,000 t � PA = Zero Category 4 � Management plan = 40,100 t The TAC must be set following the relevant plan. This category � EU Policy = category 4 overrides other categories. � Total Agreed TAC 2010: 548,000 t Total Agreed TAC 2010: 548,000 t � � ICES advice 2010: 540,000 t ICES advice 2010: 540,000 t �

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock BLUE WHITING IN SUBAREAS I-IX,XII AND XIV - I- -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV I ICES PREDICTED CATCH I- I -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice: 1600 ICES PERDICTED CATCH Huge variations TAC advice � Huge variations TAC advice � 1400 1200 (Tonnes * 1000) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YEAR Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock I- -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV I Blue Whiting Fishing Mortality 3-7 Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice: � Huge variations TAC advice Huge variations TAC advice � � Huge variations Fishing Mortality Huge variations Fishing Mortality � 65% Higher 2009 estimate of 2008 F 2010 estimate of 2009 F 2010 estimate of 2008 F Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock ICES Advice Last Year ICES Advice Last Year I- I -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV The estimated SSB for 2008 has been revised upwards by 40% and the estimated fishing Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice: mortality in 2007 has been revised downwards � Huge variations TAC advice � Huge variations TAC advice by 13%. Around 40% of the change in SSB is � Huge variations Fishing Mortality Huge variations Fishing Mortality � due to the greater reliance this year on � One stock ICES 2009b report (major ?) One stock ICES 2009b report (major ?) � spawning ground survey results (relaxation of � Management Plan cannot cater large Management Plan cannot cater large � the constraint on survey CV), and the remainder fluctuations fluctuations due to the addition of recent data. Survey problems � Survey problems � � Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32 Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32 � This Year ICES Advice � Calculation MSY in transition Calculation MSY in transition � Compared to last year, the SSB for 2009 is estimated to be about 42% lower and the fishing mortality in 2008 to be about 65% higher.

Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock Commission’s Policy Statement I I- -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV Major issues Advice: Major issues Advice: “For stocks for which no long-term plans have � Huge variations TAC advice Huge variations TAC advice � yet been proposed, it would be appropriate to � Huge variations Fishing Mortality Huge variations Fishing Mortality � � One stock ICES 2009b report (major ?) One stock ICES 2009b report (major ?) � move towards MSY by reducing fishing � Management Plan cannot cater large fluctuations Management Plan cannot cater large fluctuations � � Survey problems Survey problems � mortality in equal steps from � Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32 Precautionary fishing mortality = 0.32 � the 2011 fishing year until the 2014 fishing � Calculation MSY in transition Calculation MSY in transition � � Basis for no recruitment Basis for no recruitment � year to Fmsy, and exploiting stocks at Fmsy in � Catch figures 2009 (major ?) Catch figures 2009 (major ?) � 2015 and thereafter. Starting in 2011, this means four equal steps .” Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock I- I -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV Total Blue Whiting Landings by Country 2009 Tonnes Conclusion Conclusion � Assessment not fit for purpose Assessment not fit for purpose � � Incapable of producing reliable advice Incapable of producing reliable advice � Blue Whiting Combined Stock Blue Whiting Combined Stock I- I -IX,XII & XIV IX,XII & XIV PRAC Recommendations PRAC Recommendations No TAC advice � No TAC advice � END Instead Instead Point out difficulties with assessment � Point out difficulties with assessment � Highlight at Coastal States meeting � Highlight at Coastal States meeting � � Seek immediate benchmark 2011 Seek immediate benchmark 2011 � � Establish PRAC Focus Group with scientists Establish PRAC Focus Group with scientists �