Ho Housing Affordability is is Slo lowing th the Market Volusia - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
ho housing affordability is is slo lowing th the market
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Ho Housing Affordability is is Slo lowing th the Market Volusia - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 26, 2023 252 likes •871 views

Ho Housing Affordability is is Slo lowing th the Market Volusia Building Industry Association July 23, 2019 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist Hou ousing Af Affor ordabili lity Continues to o Trend Lo Lower Rising

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Ho Housing Affordability is is Slo lowing th the Market

Volusia Building Industry Association July 23, 2019 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Hou

  • using Af

Affor

  • rdabili

lity Continues to

  • Trend Lo

Lower

  • Rising development and construction costs represent a threat to the

housing market and prospective home buyers

  • The key economic issue of today: housing affordability
  • Metro areas that foster housing affordability will grow
  • Those that don’t will decline
  • Overall economic growth and the Fed
  • Housing demand is solid – within budget constraints
  • Supply-side headwinds: regulatory costs, labor and lumber
  • Forecasts
  • NAHB Home Building Geography Index
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Ris Risin ing Popu

  • pulatio

ion En Entering Hou

  • usi

sing Dem Demand Yea ears

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100+ Avg=4.3 Millions Gen Z: Born After 1997 Gen X: Born 1965-1980 Baby Boomers: Born 1946-1964 Silent Generation: Born 1928-1945

v

Headship rates increase from 15% to 45% Greatest Generation: Born Before 1928 Millennials: Born 1981-1997 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

slide-4
SLIDE 4

309,326 311,580 313,874 316,058 318,386 320,743 323,071 325,147 327,167 18,846 19,093 19,326 19,563 19,860 20,224 20,630 20,977 21,299 494 494 497 500 507 517 529 538 548 6,000 12,000 18,000 24,000 30,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 United States Florida Volusia Thousands Thousands

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 U.S. 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% Florida 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% Volusia County 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8% 1.7%

Pop

  • pulation Growth

Volusia County population grew faster than national and statewide rates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Payroll l Em Employment

Daytona Beach MSA above pre-recession peak

8,056 193

150 170 190 210 230 250 5,600 6,200 6,800 7,400 8,000 8,600 9,200 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

107%

Thousands, SA Thousands, SA

89% 111% 89%

Florida Deltona-Daytona Beach- Ormond Beach MSA

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Exis Existing Hou

  • use Pric

ice Ind ndex

Daytona Beach MSA below pre-recession peak

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 2000Q1 = 100, SA United States Florida Relative to Pre-recession Peak US Florida Daytona MSA Recession-era Low 81% 55% 49% Current 116% 98% 91% Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach MSA Source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Florida Real GDP Growth

  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Q/Q Percent Change (annualized), SAAR

slide-8
SLIDE 8

GDP DP Growth

Economy is slowing

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and NAHB forecast

  • 10%
  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Q/Q Percent Change, SAAR Annual Growth LT avg (‘58-’07) 3.4% 2017 2.2% 2018 2.9% 2019f 2.5% 2020f 1.8% 2021f 1.5%

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Exp Expansio ion is is Agi Aging

Current expansion is 121 months old – the longest

106 92 120 73 20 40 60 80 100 120 Dec 1854 Dec 1858 Jun 1861 Dec 1867 Dec 1870 Mar 1879 May 1885 Apr 1888 May 1891 Jun 1894 Jun 1897 Dec 1900 Aug 1904 Jun 1908 Jan 1912 Dec 1914 Mar 1919 Jul 1921 Jul 1924 Nov 1927 Mar 1933 Jun 1938 Oct 1945 Oct 1949 May 1954 Apr 1958 Feb 1961 Nov 1970 Mar 1975 Jul 1980 Nov 1982 Mar 1991 Nov 2001 Trough to Peak, Months Source: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Tig ight Lab Labor Mar arket

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and NAHB forecast 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Job Openings Rate Unemployment Rate

Percent, SA Percent, SA

Lack of labor represents a macro risk

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Cumulative Cha hange in in Em Emplo loyment by Ag Age Group

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Millions of Employees, SA

55 and Older Under 55

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Mind the Gen-X gap

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Fed ed Fu Funds Ra Rate

Source: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRB)

21

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Federal Funds – Top Rate 10-Year Treasury

slide-13
SLIDE 13

The Easiest Game of Clue …. Ever

“Expansions don’t die of old age. They are murdered.” Ben Bernanke

Who Killed the Expansion?

slide-14
SLIDE 14

The Easiest Game of Clue …. Ever

The Suspects

Who Killed the Expansion?

Professor Plumb Miss Scarlett

  • Mr. Powell
slide-15
SLIDE 15

The Easiest Game of Clue …. Ever

The Weapons

Who Killed the Expansion?

Candlestick Lead Pipe Monetary Policy

slide-16
SLIDE 16

The Easiest Game of Clue …. Ever

The Room

Who Killed the Expansion?

The Boardroom The Lounge The Study

slide-17
SLIDE 17

NAH AHB Fed edCast

Current top rate of 2.5% A more dovish stance for 2019 Rate cut during second half of 2019 Slowing of sales of Treasury bond holdings, ongoing drawdown of MBS

slide-18
SLIDE 18

30 30-Year Fi Fixed Ra Rate Mort

  • rtgage an

and 10 10-Year Treasury

Some increases ahead but nearing peak rates for the cycle

Source: Federal Reserve and Freddie Mac data and NAHB forecast 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

October 31, 2016

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 10-Year Treasury

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Housing Demand and Affordability

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Con

  • nsumer Con
  • nfidence Le

Leveli ling Off

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Index 1985=100, SA Source:The Conference Board

Near two-decade high but economic uncertainty took a toll at end of year

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Hou

  • usehold Bala

alance She Sheets

5.8% 7.2% 5.0% 4.3% 6.7% 6.3% 6.0% 4.9% 5.7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mortgage Consumer

Source: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRB) % of Disposable Inc., SA

A shift in debt away from mortgages

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Con

  • nsumer Deb

Debt

Rise in student and auto loans

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

158% 244%

9/30/2008, 100%

97%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Auto Loans Student Loans Credit Cards Other

99%

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Sha Share of

  • f You
  • ung Ad

Adults Liv Living wit ith Par arents

9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 1990 2000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Ages 18 to 24 Ages 25 to 34

Source: US Census 1990, 2000, PUMS, 2000-2017 ACS, PUMS, and NAHB Estimates

Almost doubled

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Hou

  • usehold Form
  • rmatio

ion

  • 1,000
  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Y/Y Change in Household Count, Thousands, NSA

Owner-Occupied

  • 1,000
  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Renter-Occupied

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC): Housing Vacancies & Homeownership

Demand for home ownership strengthening but stumbled in 1Q19

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Hom

  • meownership Ra

Rate

69.4% 64.3%

  • 0.10

0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68% 69% 70% 71% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Percentage, Quarterly, SA Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC): Housing Vacancies & Homeownership

A decline in 2019 Q1 after ten quarters of growth

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Geo eography of

  • f Hom
  • meownership

Alaska Hawaii Homeownership Rates in the U.S. by County

Homeownership rate for Volusia County was 69.4%

Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Hou

  • using Af

Affor

  • rdabili

lity – NAH AHB/Well lls s Far argo HOI

Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI)

78 61 89 63

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

National Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach MSA

slide-28
SLIDE 28

The Geog eography of

  • f Hou
  • using Af

Affordabili lity-NAHB/Well lls s Far argo HOI

Coastal markets least affordable

Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI)

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Supply-Side Factors

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Reg egulatory Cos

  • sts Ris

Risin ing – Up p 29 29% Over 20 2011-2016 2016

Florida regulatory costs are relatively higher than average

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Reg egulations - 32% of

  • f Mul

ultif ifamily De Development Cos

  • sts

4.8% 7.3% 2.3% 2.3% 4.2% 5.5% 4.0% 5.3% 3.9% 5.4%

5.9% 8.4% 5.2% 7.0% 7.1%

Lower Quartile Average Upper Quartile

Cost increases from changes to building codes over the past 10 years Development requirements that go beyond the ordinary Fees charged when building construction is authorized Cost of applying for zoning approval Other (non-refundable) fees charged when site work begins Cost of complying with OSHA requirements Others 21.7%* 32.1% 42.6%*

Government Regulations as a Share of Multifamily Development Costs

Note: * For quartiles, all types of costs do not sum to the total. Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI survey

NAHB-NMHC research

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Lab Labor - Con

  • nstruction

Labor shortage continued through 2018

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

  • 0.10

0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Job openings rate - Construction 12-month moving average

The number of open construction positions = 369,000 in May 2019

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Cons Construc uction n Sect Sector r Prod

  • ductivit

ity

Lagging overall economy

0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Construction Worker Productivity Overall Worker Productivity Index, 1993 = 1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Bui uilding Materials ls – Lum Lumber Pric ices s

1/5/2018, 436

582

6/28/2019, 354 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $ per thousand board feet

Since January 2018, lumber prices decreased 19%; 63% at peak

Source: NAHB Analysis; Random Lengths Composite Index

37

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Construction Outlook

slide-36
SLIDE 36

NAH AHB/Well lls Far argo Hou

  • usi

sing Mar arket Ind ndex

65

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Index Thousands, SAAR

Single-Family Starts HMI

Lower interest rates stabilize builder confidence

Source: Census Bureau and NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI survey

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Year Units % Change 2016 785,000 10% 2017 852,000 9% 2018 873,000 2% 2019f 866,000

  • 1%

2020f 901,000 4% 2021f 908,000 1%

Sing Single-Family St Starts

Limited growth as economy slows

Trough to Current: Mar 09 = 353,000 Jun 19 = 847,000 +140%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC) and NAHB forecast 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Thousands of units, SAAR

80% fall

slide-38
SLIDE 38

Growth in in Sin Single le-Famil ily Per ermits

December 2018 YTD vs. December 2017 YTD

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

Rank

Decline Growth rate < U.S. Growth rate ≥ U.S. (4.3%) No Change

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Sing Single-Family Buil uilding Per ermits – Flori Florida an and Vol

  • lusi

sia Cou

  • unty

209,162 26,636 97,055 5,068 513 2,128

1,800 3,600 5,400 7,200 9,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Number of Units Number of Units Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

Volusia County growth rate for 2018 was lower than Florida rate

The growth rates for SF permits for Volusia County have been falling in recent years.

slide-40
SLIDE 40

Cape Coral- Fort Myers Crestview-Fort Walton Beach- Destin Deltona-Daytona Beach- Ormond Beach Gainesville Homosassa Springs Jacksonville Lakeland- Winter Haven Miami-Fort Lauderdale- West Palm Beach Naples-Immokalee- Marco Island North Port- Sarasota- Bradenton Ocala Orlando- Kissimmee- Sanford Port St. Lucie Punta Gorda Sebastian- Vero Beach Palm Bay- Melbourne- Titusville Panama City Pensacola- Ferry Pass- Brent Tallahassee Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater The Villages

Sing Single-Family Per ermits 12-Month Growth Ra Rate

Rank

Growth Rate < 0 0 < Growth Rate < U.S. (4.3%) Growth Rate > U.S. (4.3%) Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

slide-41
SLIDE 41

Typical New Hom

  • me Siz

Size

Decline after market shift

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC) 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

SF Starts: Median Floor Area SF Starts: Median 1 Year MA

Square Feet

slide-42
SLIDE 42

Townhouse Mar arket Exp Expanding

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 SF Starts: Attached Townhouse Share: 1-Year Moving Average Thousands, NSA Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

15% growth rate for 2018

slide-43
SLIDE 43

Cus ustom Hom

  • me Bui

uilding Mar arket

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Owner/Contractor Built Units Owner/Contractor Built Share: 1-year Moving Average Thousands, NSA Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

Flat market conditions

slide-44
SLIDE 44

Sing Single-Family Buil uilt-for-Rent a a Nic iche Mar arket

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Built for Rent Built for Rent Share 1-Year Moving Average Thousands, NSA Share of Single-Family Year Built for Rent 2016 4.32% 2017 4.36% 2018 4.85% Percentage Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Mul ultif ifamily Hous

  • using St

Star arts

Leveling off

Year Units % Change 2016 393,000 0% 2017 356,000

  • 9%

2018 377,000 6% 2019f 386,000 2% 2020f 385,000 0% 2021f 399,000 4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC) and NAHB forecast 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Trough to Current: 4th Q 09 = 82,000 1st Q 19 = 349,000 +326%

Thousands of units, SAAR

76% fall Avg=344,000

slide-46
SLIDE 46

Mul ultif ifamily Buil uilding Per ermits – Flori Florida and and Volu

  • lusia Cou
  • unty

78,088 8,639 47,372 1,816 323

800 1,600 2,400 3,200 4,000 18,000 36,000 54,000 72,000 90,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Number of Units Number of Units Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

slide-47
SLIDE 47

Resi esidential l Rem emodeling

Remodeling market slowing

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC) and NAHB forecast 50 100 150 200 250 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Billions, SAAR

Adjusted Actual

Year Percent Change 2017 19% 2018 8% 2019f

  • 2%

2020f 3% 2021f 2%

slide-48
SLIDE 48

The Ag Age e of

  • f the

he Hou

  • using St

Stock

Typical home is almost 40 years old

30% 11% 16% 14% 16% 13% 37% 14% 13% 15% 16% 5%

48 years old or more 38-47 28-37 18-27 8- 17 7 years old or less 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2007 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

slide-49
SLIDE 49

NAHB Home Building Geography Index

slide-50
SLIDE 50

New NAH AHB Hom

  • me Buil

uilding Geo eography Ind ndex

Source: NAHB Analysis of Census data (Building Permits and ACS)

9% of single-family construction takes place in Large Metro – Outlying County

Q1 2019 YOY growth rate: 1.6% 4-quarter MA: 5.6%

slide-51
SLIDE 51

New NAH AHB Hom

  • me Buil

uilding Geo eography Ind ndex

Source: NAHB Analysis of Census data (Building Permits and ACS)

29% of single-family construction takes place in Smaller Metro – Core County

Q1 2019 YOY growth rate:

  • 6.2%

4-quarter MA: 3.2%

slide-52
SLIDE 52

New NAH AHB Hom

  • me Buil

uilding Geo eography Ind ndex

Source: NAHB Analysis of Census data (Building Permits and ACS)

27% of single-family construction takes place in Large Metro – Suburban County

Q1 2019 YOY growth rate:

  • 9.7%

4-quarter MA:

  • 0.7%
slide-53
SLIDE 53

Thank you

Questions? rdietz@nahb.org @dietz_econ eyeonhousing.org housingeconomics.com

slide-54
SLIDE 54

Mod

  • dular Con
  • nstruction

Modular Share of All Single-family Homes Started in 2017

7.4% 4.8% 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Middle Atlantic New England East North Central South Atlantic West North Central East South Central Mountain West South Central Pacific

U.S. Overall: 13,254/847,830= 1.6%

Source: NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction, U.S. Census Bureau

slide-55
SLIDE 55

Pane aneliz ized Con

  • nstruction

Panelized/Precut Share of All Single-family Homes Started in 2017

5.4% 2.9% 2.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% East South Central Middle Atlantic South Atlantic West North Central Pacific East North Central West South Central New England Mountain

U.S. Overall: 16,138/847,830 = 1.9%

Source: NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction, U.S. Census Bureau

slide-56
SLIDE 56

New NAH AHB Hom

  • me Buil

uilding Geo eography Ind ndex

Source: NAHB Analysis of Census data (Building Permits and ACS)

3% of single-family construction takes place in Non Metro/Micro County

Q1 2019 YOY growth rate:

  • 3.9%

4-quarter MA: 3.0%

slide-57
SLIDE 57

New NAH AHB Hom

  • me Buil

uilding Geo eography Ind ndex

Source: NAHB Analysis of Census data (Building Permits and ACS)

6% of single-family construction takes place in Micro County

Q1 2019 YOY growth rate:

  • 11.4%

4-quarter MA: 0.5%

slide-58
SLIDE 58

New NAH AHB Hom

  • me Buil

uilding Geo eography Ind ndex

Source: NAHB Analysis of Census data (Building Permits and ACS)

8% of single-family construction takes place in Smaller Metro – Outlying County

Q1 2019 YOY growth rate:

  • 4.8%

4-quarter MA: 0.0%

slide-59
SLIDE 59

New NAH AHB Hom

  • me Buil

uilding Geo eography Ind ndex

Source: NAHB Analysis of Census data (Building Permits and ACS)

18% of single-family construction takes place in Large Metro – Core County

Q1 2019 YOY growth rate:

  • 8.0%

4-quarter MA: 0.0%

slide-60
SLIDE 60

New NAH AHB Hom

  • me Buil

uilding Geo eography Ind ndex (H (HBGI)

Source: NAHB Analysis of Census Data (Building Permits and ACS)

Multifamily Market Share YOY Growth Rate (4-Quarter MA) (Q1 2019) (4-Quarter MA) Large Metro - Core County 40% 3.2%

  • 1.2%

Large Metro - Suburban County 26%

  • 8.8%
  • 4.4%

Large Metro - Outlying County 4%

  • 5.8%

40.1% Smaller Metro - Core County 21% 3.5%

  • 0.2%

Smaller Metro - Outlying County 3%

  • 1.5%

37.9% Micro County 4%

  • 14.8%

28.9% Non Metro/Micro County 2% 1.5% 70.6%

slide-61
SLIDE 61

Len Lending – AD AD&C Ac Access

Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)

Loans growing but at a slower rate

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% $- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1-4 unit Residential Construction Loans Year-over-Year Growth Rates Millions