Modeling Housing Affordability in Corpus Christi, Texas
December 13, 2018
Modeling Housing Affordability in Corpus Christi, Texas December - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Modeling Housing Affordability in Corpus Christi, Texas December 13, 2018 Ov Overview I. Background II. Owner-Occupied Housing Affordability III. Renter-Occupied Housing Affordability IV. Future Housing Needs V. Housing & Neighborhood
December 13, 2018
City of Corpus Christi Nueces County Population 325,600 361,221 Households 115,797 128,490 Median Family Income $63,100 $63,100 Percent of Owner- Occupied Housing Units 57% 58% Percent of Renter- Occupied Housing Units 43% 42%
Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development, U.S. Census Bureau
Property Type Number of Owner- Occupied Units in the City of Corpus Christi Proportion of Owner- Occupied Units in the City of Corpus Christi Number of Owner- Occupied Units in Nueces County Proportion of Owner- Occupied Units in Nueces County
Single-family 82,996 92.6% 94,505 90.6% Condominium 3,620 4.0% 6,352 6.1% Townhouse 3,042 3.4% 3,491 3.3% Total 89,658 100.0% 104,348 100.0%
Source: Nueces County Appraisal District
Source: Nueces County Appraisal District
Property Type Number of Renter- Occupied Units in the City of Corpus Christi Proportion of Renter- Occupied Units in the City of Corpus Christi Number of Renter- Occupied Units in Nueces County Proportion of Renter- Occupied Units in Nueces County
1-4 30,427 61.7% 33,415 63.5% 5-9 8,630 17.5% 8,733 16.6% 10-49 6,259 12.7% 6,447 12.3% 50 or more 3,977 8.1% 4,014 7.6% Total 49,293 100.0% 52,609 100.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Income Cohort Percent of Median Family Income Income Range Percent of Households in the City of Corpus Christi Percent of Households in Nueces County Extremely Low Income 0 - 39% $0 - $24,600 22.9% 23.6% Very Low Income 40 - 49% $24,601 - $31,050 6.5% 6.6% Low Income 50 - 79% $31,051 - $49,700 17.0% 17.4% Workforce 80 - 120% $49,701 - $75,720 19.1% 18.3% Market-rate 121%+ $75,721+ 34.5% 34.1%
Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development, U.S. Census Bureau
Income Cohort Income Range Percent of Owner- Occupied Households in the City of Corpus Christi Percent of Renter- Occupied Households in the City of Corpus Christi Percent of Owner- Occupied Households in Nueces County Percent of Renter- Occupied Households in Nueces County Extremely Low Income $0 - $24,600 16.3% 33.6% 15.7% 32.3% Very Low Income $24,601 - $31,050 4.9% 9.0% 4.7% 8.9% Low Income $31,051 - $49,700 13.7% 22.3% 13.4% 21.7% Workforce $49,701 - $75,720 19.1% 17.3% 19.4% 18.6% Market-rate $75,721+ 46.1% 17.8% 46.8% 18.4%
Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development, U.S. Census Bureau
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Housing Affordability measures the relationship between home price or rent and median family (or household) income.
required income to qualify for a mortgage
home price based on the total monthly mortgage payment (monthly mortgage payment + additional expenses associated with homeownership)
income (Example: Rent is 30% of median income)
Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Owner-Occupied Housing Affordability in the Corpus-Christi MSA
Median Home Price Median Family Income +31% +39%
Widening gap between median home price and median family income diminishes affordability
Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
1.45 1.33 1.42 1.73 1.84 1.94 2.14 1.86 1.63 1.79 1.74 1.80 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Housing Affordability Index
Housing Affordability Index: Corpus-Christi MSA
Increasing Affordability Median Income > Qualifying Income Median Income < Qualifying Income
Recession, Corpus Christi is relatively affordable in comparison to other geographies.
Texas Corpus Christi Beaumont- Port Arthur Brownsville- Harlingen McAllen- Edinburg- Mission San Antonio- New Braunfels Victoria
2011 2.04 1.94 2.40 1.68 1.58 1.98 2.12 2017 1.54 1.80 2.01 1.54 1.54 1.59 2.06 Housing Affordability Index
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Annual Home Price Appreciation in the Corpus Christi MSA, 1981-2017
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
Historical average: 2.7% Seven-year average (2011-2017): 3.5%
income households
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent of Total Homes Sold
All Residential Sales in Nueces County (2010-2017)
$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $299,999 $300,000 -$399,999 $400,000+
income households
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent of Total Homes Sold
All Residential Sales in the City of Corpus Christi (2010-2017)
$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000+
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percent of New Homes Sold
New Residential Sales Activity in Nueces County (2010-2017)
$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000+
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percent of New Homes Sold
New Residential Sales Activity in the City of Corpus Christi (2010-2017)
$0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000+
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Source: CoreLogic, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Utilities): 6.00% of Home Value
Source: CoreLogic, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Family Income Maximum Home Price Affordable $20,000 $70,357 $30,000 $105,536 $40,000 $140,714 $50,000 $175,893 $60,000 $211,071 $70,000 $246,250 $80,000 $281,429 $90,000 $316,607 $100,000 $351,786
Income Cohort Income Range Range in Maximum Home Price Affordable Extremely Low Income $0 - $24,600 $0 - $86,539 Very Low Income $24,601 - $31,050 $86,540 - $109,229 Low Income $31,051 - $49,700 $109,230 - $174,837 Workforce $49,701 - $75,720 $174,838 - $266,372 Market-rate $75,721+ $266,373+
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, CoreLogic
Income Cohort Family Income Range of Maximum Home Price Affordable Percent of Owner- Occupied Households Percent of Owner- Occupied Units Over or (Under) Supply
Extremely Low Income $0 - $24,600 $0 - $86,539
16.3% 22.9% 6,892
Very Low Income $24,601 - $31,050 $86,540 - $109,229
4.9% 9.7% 5,046
Low Income $31,051 - $49,700 $109,230 - $174,837
13.7% 30.5% 17,515
Workforce $49,701 - $75,720 $174,838 - $266,372
19.1% 22.8% 3,855
Market-rate $75,721+ $266,373+
46.1% 14.2% (33,307)
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, CoreLogic, Nueces County Appraisal District, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
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Income Cohort Family Income Range of Maximum Home Price Affordable Percent of Owner- Occupied Households Percent of Owner- Occupied Units Over or (Under) Supply
Extremely Low Income $0 - $24,600 $0 - $86,539
15.7% 21.6% 5,251
Very Low Income $24,601 - $31,050 $86,540 - $109,229
4.7% 10.1% 4,804
Low Income $31,051 - $49,700 $109,230 - $174,837
13.4% 32.8% 17,356
Workforce $49,701 - $75,720 $174,838 - $266,372
19.4% 23.7% 3,915
Market-rate $75,721+ $266,373+
46.8% 11.8% (31,326)
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, CoreLogic, Nueces County Appraisal District, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Income Cohort Family Income Range of Maximum Home Price Affordable Percent of Owner- Occupied Households Percent of Owner- Occupied Units Over or (Under) Supply
Extremely Low Income $0 - $24,600 $0 - $86,539
16.3% 9.6% (6,951)
Very Low Income $24,601 - $31,050 $86,540 - $109,229
4.9% 6.4% 1,648
Low Income $31,051 - $49,700 $109,230 - $174,837
13.7% 27.0% 13,836
Workforce $49,701 - $75,720 $174,838 - $266,372
19.1% 32.6% 14,076
Market-rate $75,721+ $266,373+
46.1% 24.4% (22,608)
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, CoreLogic, Nueces County Appraisal District, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Income Cohort Family Income Range of Maximum Home Price Affordable Percent of Owner- Occupied Households Percent of Owner- Occupied Units Over or (Under) Supply
Extremely Low Income $0 - $24,600 $0 - $86,539
15.7% 9.8% (5,335)
Very Low Income $24,601 - $31,050 $86,540 - $109,229
4.7% 6.7% 1,782
Low Income $31,051 - $49,700 $109,230 - $174,837
13.4% 28.6% 13,624
Workforce $49,701 - $75,720 $174,838 - $266,372
19.4% 34.7% 13,744
Market-rate $75,721+ $266,373+
46.8% 20.2% (23,815)
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, CoreLogic, Nueces County Appraisal District, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Affordability:
income cohort are “buying down”—i.e., they are purchasing lower-priced homes. Availability:
supply shortage of owner-occupied units.
more to purchase a home.
Source: Nueces County Appraisal District
Source: Nueces County Appraisal District
Type of Loan Number of Loans Percent of Loans Median Loan Amount Median Applicant Income Estimated Median Price- to-Income Multiplier Conventional 10,752 52% $161,000 $90,000 2.52 FHA-insured 6,294 30% $151,000 $63,000 2.60 FSA/RHS- guaranteed 10 0.05% $86,000 $52,000 1.79 VA- guaranteed 3,671 18% $198,000 $78,000 2.76 Total 20,727 $164,480 $79,657 2.59
Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Average loan-to-value ratio: 89%
(households earning greater than 120% of the median family income)
low income households (households earning less than 50% of the MFI)
Income Cohort Number of Home Purchase Originations Percent of Home Purchase Originations
Extremely Low Income
24 0.1%
Very Low Income
375 1.8%
Low Income
2,308 11.2%
Workforce
5,447 26.4%
Market-rate
12,472 60.5%
Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Development (HUD) defines cost-burdened households as those who spend more than 30% of their income on rent.
calculations of renter-occupied housing affordability.
Income Cohort Family Income ($) Monthly Rent Affordable ($)
Extremely Low Income
$0 - $24,600 $0-$615
Very Low Income
$24,601 - $31,050 $616-$776
Low Income
$31,051 - $49,700 $777-$1,243
Workforce
$49,701 - $75,720 $1,244-$1,893
Market-rate
$75,721+ $1,894+ Median rent in Corpus Christi: $970
Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Urban Development
Income Cohort Family Income Monthly Rent Affordable Percent of Renter- Occupied Households Percent of Renter- Occupied Units Over or (under)supply
Extremely Low Income
$0 - $24,600 $0-$615 33.6% 20.5% (6,892)
Very Low Income
$24,601 - $31,050 $616-$776 9.0% 14.1% 2,692
Low Income
$31,051 - $49,700 $777-$1,243 22.3% 34.4% 6,359
Workforce
$49,701 - $75,720 $1,244-$1,893 17.3% 23.2% 3,112
Market-rate
$75,721+ $1,894+ 17.8% 7.8% (5,271)
Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development, U.S. Census Bureau
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Urban Development
Income Cohort Family Income Monthly Rent Affordable Percent of Renter- Occupied Households Percent of Renter- Occupied Units Over or (under)supply
Extremely Low Income
$0 - $24,600 $0-$615 32.3% 19.8% (6,148)
Very Low Income
$24,601 - $31,050 $616-$776 8.9% 14.2% 2,619
Low Income
$31,051 - $49,700 $777-$1,243 21.7% 34.4% 6,216
Workforce
$49,701 - $75,720 $1,244-$1,893 18.6% 23.7% 2,469
Market-rate
$75,721+ $1,894+ 18.4% 7.9% (5,156)
Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development, U.S. Census Bureau
374,157 people by 2020 and 407,534 people by 2030 (average annual growth of 0.89 percent).
hovered between 2.64 and 2.78. Assuming an average household size of 2.71, the County needs,
year to keep pace with population growth.
the Great Recession), building permits averaged 1,441 annually.
Source: Texas Water Development Board
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Number of Permits Single family units Multifamily units
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 YEAR BUILT
Median Lot Size (SF) by Year Built
Source: Nueces County Appraisal District
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
YEAR BUILT
Median Living Area (SF) by Year Built
Source: Nueces County Appraisal District
builders have reduced median lot by 1,121 SF
builders have increased median living area by 206 SF
to reduce lot size or living area.
neighborhood quality.
not mean that it is of adequate quality or that it is located in a neighborhood with access to good schools, jobs, healthcare, amenities, etc.
to be an issue for lower-income households.
household resides significantly effects the
which offer households access to better schools, jobs, health care, and amenities and reduces exposure to crime, is more likely to enhance the opportunities and life outcomes of that household.
able to afford homeownership in high-quality neighborhoods.
Limited financial resources, lower educational status Faces lower access to good schools, jobs, and health care; higher exposure to crime Resides in a neighborhood
quality
Low- income household
Resides in a high-quality neighborhood Faces greater access to good schools, jobs, and health care; lower exposure to crime Fewer
for upward mobility; lower household
More
for upward mobility; improved household
Source: Nueces County Appraisal District
Source: Nueces County Appraisal District
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 $40.0 $45.0
MEDIAN IMPROVEMENT VALUE PSF MEDIAN LAND VALUE PSF
Single Family 2017 Appraised Value By Year Built
Median Land Value PSF Median Improvement Value PSF
Single Family Land >= $25 PSF
Single Family Land < $7 PSF
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 $4.0 $4.5 $5.0
MEDIAN IMPROVEMENT VALUE PSF MEDIAN LAND VALUE PSF
Single Family 2017 Appraised Value By Year Built
Median Land Value PSF Median Improvement Value PSF
Single Family Land >= $4 PSF Single Family Land < $3 PSF
longtime residents with lower income
suburbs.
to the most jobs
household outcomes for low-income households.
income cohort (extremely low income families).
homes affordable to the lowest-income cohort will worsen affordability.
affordable housing while enhancing neighborhood quality?