San Diego Housing Commission “Addressing the Housing Affordability Crisis: San Diego Housing Production Objectives 2018-2028” January 18, 2018 Deborah Ruane Executive Vice President & Chief Strategy Officer San Diego Housing Commission Jenny van der Heyde Senior Policy Analyst San Diego Housing Commission
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 • November 25, 2015: SDHC released “Addressing the Housing Affordability Crisis: Action Plan for San Diego” • 11 recommended actions at the Local, State, and Federal level to reduce costs and increase production • To date, action has occurred on all 11 of the recommendations • This presentation addresses the first of these recommended actions: • City of San Diego set annual housing production goals San Diego Housing Commission Slide #1
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 • SDHC collaborated with Councilmembers Scott Sherman and David Alvarez • Report studied the City’s housing needs and neighborhood-level housing target goals • Report identifies available land, land- use opportunities, and streamlining and process improvements that would enable the City to set realistic and achievable housing production goals San Diego Housing Commission Slide #2
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 • Housing production levels have not kept pace with population growth • Nearly 50 percent of San Diego households are unable to find rental housing they can afford • Approximately 60 percent of San Diego households cannot afford median-priced home ownership • Negative impacts from the low supply of housing: ‒ Quality of life degraded ‒ Environment negatively impacted ‒ Talent available to employers constrained ‒ City revenue lost ‒ Direct construction jobs lost San Diego Housing Commission Slide #3
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 • The San Diego Association of Government’s (SANDAG) 2013-2020 Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) may not fully identify the City of San Diego’s housing need because it does not include the shortfall in housing production in each year • Comparison with housing production in peer cities identifies additional housing shortfall in the City of San Diego • 17,000 – 24,000 units : Annual production rate needed by 2028 to adequately meet the newly identified demand for housing in the City of San Diego • 6,400 units : Top annual production rate in City of San Diego within the last five years San Diego Housing Commission Slide #4
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 • The City of San Diego has the capacity to meet its housing needs within the next 10 years. • Five main sources for potential new units: 1.Rezoning to increase density around transit hubs 2.Redeveloping underutilized parcels of land 3.Adapting disused industrial zones 4.Infilling vacant lots Geo-spatial analysis: Google map that overlays 5.Utilizing Companion Units each of five sources on City of San Diego San Diego Housing Commission Slide #5
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 Unit Addition from Transit Hub Densification Transit hubs in San Diego SANDAG smart growth hubs and average densities in city Metropolitan Urban 20+ units/acre (low average 25; 7-20 units/acre (average 12) higher average 62) Mira Mesa Mission Valley Town Community Greater North 4-7 unit/acre (average 5.5) 1-3 units/acre (average 2) Park Downtown San Diego Otay Mesa SOURCE: SANDAG GIS Data; SANDAG Smart Growth Map San Diego Housing Commission Slide #6
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 Re-developing Underutilized Land 0% 1-25% 25-50% 50-100% >100% Non multi-family Mira Mesa Clairemont Mesa Mission Valley Normal Heights Greater North Park Downtown San Diego Southeastern San Diego Otay Mesa SOURCE: Geo-Spatial Analysis, SANDAG Geo-SpatialData, McKinsey Global Institute ‘A toolkit to close California’s Housing Gap’ San Diego Housing Commission Slide #7
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 Adaptive Reuse of Disused/City-owned Land Disused/light use Industrial city land parcels MTS highlighted developable land (disused/lightly used parking lots) at 1313/1344 National Ave. SOURCE: SANDAG Geo-Spatial Data San Diego Housing Commission Slide #8
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 Vacant Lots that Can Support Single or Multifamily Dwellings Multi family Single family Pacific Highlands Ranch La Jolla Mission Valley Greater North Park Downtown San Diego Otay Mesa SOURCE: Geo-Spatial Analysis, SANDAG Geo-Spatial Data, McKinsey Global Institute ‘A toolkit to close California’s Housing Gap’ San Diego Housing Commission Slide #9
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 Single-Family Homes in San Diego with Potential for Additional Dwelling Units SOURCE: Geo-Spatial Analysis, SANDAG Geo-Spatial Data, McKinsey Global Institute ‘A toolkit to close California’s Housing Gap’ San Diego Housing Commission Slide #10
SDHC – San Diego Housing Production Objectives: 2018-2028 Annual housing production rate targets for San Diego City , Housing units required per year to meet targets Extrapolated historic peak production (40,000 units per year) 1 30,000 28,000 High-case per year 26,000 24,000 production target 2 24,000 22,000 22,000 20,000 Low-case per year 18,000 production target 3 16,000 16,000 17,000 14,000 15,000 12,000 10,000 11,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 Past 5-year peak production 5,000 (approx. 6,400 units per year) 4 6,000 4,000 2,000 2018 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2028 1 Historic high for housing stock growth from 1970 onwards; Average annual rate of 6% housing stock growth (1972-73) applied to current housing stock 2 Based on peer city benchmarks 3 Scaled down high case target, adjusting closer to RHNA magnitude target 4 Average of US census data and SD City data, indicating 12K (2013-14) and 6.5K (2016-17) units per year respectively SOURCE: US Census; Annual Housing Progress Report Outcomes, July 2017 Draft San Diego Housing Commission Slide #11
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