District of Columbia Office of Planning POPULATION TRENDS April 26, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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District of Columbia Office of Planning POPULATION TRENDS April 26, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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District of Columbia Office of Planning POPULATION TRENDS April 26, 2016 presentation Renewed Population Growth Between 2000 and 2015 the District added 100,000 people. Total Population as of 2015 was 672,228 900,000 Highest District

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April 26, 2016 presentation

District of Columbia

Office of Planning

POPULATION TRENDS

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100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

People Living in the District Year Forecasted Growth Highest District Population

Between 2000 and 2015 the District added 100,000 people.

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Total Population as of 2015 was 672,228

Renewed Population Growth

Source: US Census Bureau and MWCOG Cooperative Forecast

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Between 2000 and 2015 households increased citywide with the highest levels of growth in:

Mount Vernon Triangle Capital Riverfront U Street Columbia Heights NoMa Logan Circle Foggy Botuom

a a b b c c d d e e f f g g

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Source: MWCOG Cooperative Forecast

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4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Annual Deaths 4,698 Annual Births 9,264

Births and Deaths in the District

Source: DC Department of Health

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  • 10,000

10,000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Migration Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration

Migration to the District

Source: US Census Bureau

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$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

Median Income in the District

Source: US Census Bureau 2015 Dollars

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20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Black Population White Population

Racial Composition of the District

Source: DC State Data Center

7 Annual data Decennial data

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

18 to 24 year olds 25 and up

Bachelors and Above Some College High School Less than HS

Educational Attainment

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Source: US Census Bureau 2014 1 year ACS

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8

White Population Black Population Asian Population Other Population Latino Population

Race and Ethnicity in the District

Source: US Census Bureau 2014 5 year ACS

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42% - 95% 27% - 41% 12% - 26% 2% - 11% 42% - 95% 27% - 41% 12% - 26% 2% - 11%

2005-2009 2010-2014

Poverty in the District

Source: US Census Bureau 5 year ACS Percent of People in Poverty Percent of People in Poverty

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$95,000 - $231,000 $68,000 - $94,000 $39,000 - $67,000 $0 - $38,000 $136,000 - $210,000 $62,000 - $135,000 $32,000 - $61,000 $0 - $31,000

2010-2014 2005-2009

Median Income in the District

Source: US Census Bureau 5 year ACS

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67% - 95% 30%- 66% 2% - 30% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ward 8 Ward 7 Ward 6 Ward 5 Ward 4 Ward 3 Ward 2 Ward 1

Percent of Population with a Bachelors Degree or Higher

Educational Attainment

Source: US Census Bureau 2014 5 year ACS

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12%-27% 7%-11% 2%-7% 0%-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Ward 8 Ward 7 Ward 6 Ward 5 Ward 4 Ward 3 Ward 2 Ward 1

Population that Speaks English Less than “Very Well”

Population that Speaks English Less than “Very Well”

Source: US Census Bureau 2014 5 year ACS

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90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 110,000 115,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

Declines in the District’s youth population between 2000 and 2010 have been reversed.

Y

  • uth Population (Ages 0-17)

Source: US Census Bureau Census and Estimates

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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0-2 Years 3-4 Years 5-10 Years 11-13 Years 14-17 Years

Y

  • uth Population Composition

Source: DC State Data Center

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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0-2 Years 3-4 Years 5-10 Years 11-13 Years 14-17 Years

Y

  • uth Population Composition

Source: DC State Data Center

Between 2000 and 2010 a 36% decline in 5-10 year olds accounted for most of the youth population loss

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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0-2 Years 3-4 Years 5-10 Years 11-13 Years 14-17 Years

Y

  • uth Population Composition

Source: DC State Data Center

Between 2010 and 2014 the 5-10 year old youth population has grown by 16%

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Y

  • uth Population Trends

Source: US Census Bureau

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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2011 2012 2013 2014

Under 5 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 5 to 9 years White Youth Black Youth Latino Youth

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26,579-51,558 9,199-26,579 2,529-9,199

Currently the youth population is largest in mid-city neighborhoods and far south east.

Y

  • uth Population 2015

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Source: DC State Data Center

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100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

People Living in the District Year Forecasted Growth Highest District Population

Over the next 15 years the District is likely to reach a new peak population above 800,000 residents.

Continued Growth is Likely

Source: US Census Bureau and MWCOG Cooperative Forecast

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Between 2015 and 2030 households are expected to continue to grow city wide with the highest levels in:

NoMa Capitol Riverfront Florida Avenue Market Fort Totuen Hill East Lower Georgia Ave Waterfront Edgewood Brentwood

a a b b c c h g d d e e f f g h g g

Source: MWCOG Cooperative Forecast

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3,279-5,281 1,772-3,278 575-1,771

Brightwood, Crestwood Petworth Columbia Heights, Mt. Pleasant, Pleasant Plains, Park View Congress Heights, Bellvue, Washington Heights

a

a

b b c c

Areas of Signifjcant Forecasted Growth

Y

  • uth Population 2015-2022

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forecast assumptions

  • By Age 5
  • 1/3 of children are anticipated to move out of the District.
  • 1/2 of Children in Central Washington are anticipated to move

to single family neighborhoods.

  • 1/5 are anticipated to stay in Central Washington, in single family

neighborhoods with house prices between $500,000 and $800,000.

  • The positive trends regarding the aturaction and

retention of households with children will continue.

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Forecast limitations

  • OP’s Youth Population Model Limitations
  • Over sensitive to higher income households
  • Uses a previous long range forecast of population that

underestimated growth.

  • Young professionals are likely under estimated for the next 10

years.

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Key Takeawa ys

  • The District as a whole is growing, and our latest forecast

suggests we will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

  • The citywide median income is increasing, but these income

gains remain unevenly distributed among the Wards.

  • Our youth population has been on a growth trend since 2010.
  • Since 2010, the population of 0-10 year olds has grown

signifjcantly while the 11-17 age cohort has remained static.

  • There maybe opportunity to maximize the aging-up of

elementary age children to try to capture them at middle and high school.

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For More Information Contact

Rogelio Flores Facilities Planner e: rogelio.fmores@dc.gov p: 202.741.0815 Joy Phillips, PhD Associate Director, DC State Data Center e: joy.phillips@dc.gov p: 202.442.7630