My powerpoint presentations: UKSDS 2018.PPT John Raven Modelling the Network of Social Forces that have the future of Homo Sapiens and the Planet in their Grip and Designing a Dynamic Public Management System
Andreas Harbig and Alex Voigt AT 2017 annual conference No of Crossrail projects required in all major cities to cope with population growth.
Financially and technically feasible, but, from ecological point of view, cannot be done.
Bill Rees and others have shown that it would require 3-5 back up planets engaged in nothing but agriculture for everyone alive today to live as we live in the West.
Similar conclusions from our own work and that of Clive Spash and this years’ report to the Club of Rome. We have to radically change the way we live.
So many changes necessary that cannot be centrally specified. Bookchin: Sustainable society will not even be recognisable as any political economy known to us. “Blueprint” not possible: Agricultural cf industrial society. .
Problem is to devise a public management system which will promote evolution in those public management arrangements
One which will innovate and learn without central direction.
Only systemic attempt to find way forward re the ecological issues was Limits to Growth based on Jay Forrester World Model Others merely make ad-hoc suggestions.
Particularly important to look at this since Weizsacker and Wijkman’s 50 th anniversary report to Club of Rome utterly fails to build on or extend that work. Instead we get yet more ad-hoc demonstrations, assertions, and good ideas.
Not at all obvious in Limits to Growth.
Another World Model: STELLA
The systemic mapping behind the Limits to Growth Projections is not discussed.
Here are some.
Demographics population labor force participation fraction initial population 15 to 44 initial population 0 to 14 labor force initial population 54 to 64 initial population 65 plus reproductive lifetime Population 15 Population 45 Population 65 Population 0 To 44 To 64 Plus To 14 maturation maturation maturation deaths 65 plus births 64 to 65 14 to 15 44 to 45 deaths 45 to 64 deaths 0 to 14 deaths 15 to 44 <Time> mortality 65 plus mortality 15 to 44 mortality 0 to 14 mortality 45 to 64 population equilibrium time <one year> <one year> mortality 15 mortality 0 to mortality 45 mortality 65 <life <total fertility> to 44 table 14 table to 64 table plus table <life expectancy> expectancy> deaths
Fertility <desired total fertility> total fertility <fertility control effectiveness time s> <Time> fertility control maximum total fertility normal maximum total fertility effectiveness fertility control effectiveness table <GDP pc unit> <one year> fecundity multiplier fertility control need for fertility <health services impact delay> facilities per capita fecundity multiplier table control <life expectancy> lifetime perception delay fertility control <service output per capita> allocation per capita perceived life desired total expectancy fertility fraction services allocated fraction services allocated to fertility control table to fertility control <Time> desired completed desired completed family size normal family size completed multiplier <one year> <GDP pc unit> from perceived lifetime <zero population growth time s> completed multiplier from social family size normal family response to perceived lifetime table social norm social family size normal table delayed industrial output per capita family response to social norm table family income social adjustment delay expectation <industrial output per capita> average industrial income expectation averaging time output per capita
Life Expectancy life expectancy life expectancy normal <Time> lifetime multiplier from lifetime multiplier from lifetime multiplier from <persistent pollution index> health services health services 1 persistent pollution lifetime multiplier from lifetime multiplier from health services 1 table persistent pollution table lifetime multiplier lifetime multiplier from crowding <GDP pc unit> lifetime multiplier from from food health services 2 <food per capita> effective hea lth services per capita <GDP pc unit> crowding multiplier lifetime multiplier from food table from industry lifetime multiplier from fraction of <subsistence food per capita> health services 2 table population urban health services impact delay <GDP pc unit> health services per <unit population> <population> capita <industrial output per capita> <GDP pc unit> fraction of population urban table crowding multiplier from industry table <service output per capita> health services per capita table
Persistent Pollution industrial capital output industrial capital output ratio ratio multiplier from multiplier from pollution table pollution technology <industrial output> industrial material toxicity index fraction of resources Persistent persistent pollution from persistent materials Pollution generation factor 1 Technology persistent pollution persistent pollution technology change rate persistent pollution industrial material <POLICY YEAR s> generation factor 2 technology emissions factor intensity industry <Time> development <persistent pollution delay <population> <Time> technology change time persistent pollution persistent pollution persistent pollution s> technology change generation factor generation industry persistent pollution multiplier persistent pollution technology change technology change <POLICY YEAR s> multiplier 1 <per capita resource multiplier 2 desired persistent persistent pollution use multiplier> pollution index technology change persistent pollution mult table 1 generation rate persistent pollution persistent persistent pollution technology change mult pollution in 1970 generation agriculture table 2 persistent assimilation half pollution index initial persistent pollution life multiplier assimilation half <Arable Land> life mult table agricultural material Persistent assimilation toxicity index assimilation half Pollution half life persistent pollution persistent pollution life in 1970 appearance rate assimilation rate fraction of agricultural inputs from persistent materials <agricultural input per hectare> persistent pollution transmission delay
Non Renewable Resources industrial capital output ratio multiplier from resource industrial capital output ratio conservation technology multiplier from resource table resource use factor 1 resource use fact 2 Resource Conservation Technology <POLICY YEAR s> resource technology <POLICY YEAR s> change rate <Time> <Time> resource use factor <technology development delay> resource technology <initial <resource technology change rate multiplier nonrenewable change time s> resources s> resource technology desired resource change rate multiplier 1 resource technology use rate Nonrenewable change rate multiplier 2 resource technology Resources resource change table 1 usage rate resource technology fraction of change table 2 <population> resources per capita resource use multiplier remaining <industrial output per capita> <GDP pc unit> per capita resource use mult table fraction of capital allocated to fraction of capital allocated fraction of capital allocated obtaining resources 2 table to obtaining resources 1 to obtaining resources 2 <fraction of industrial capital fraction of capital allocated to fraction of industrial capital allocated to obtaining <Time> obtaining resources 1 table allocated to obtaining resources resources switch time s>
Food Production average life of agricultural inputs 1 fraction of agricultural inputs for land maintenance table <average life of agricultural inputs 2 Agricultural agricultural input s> per hectare Inputs fraction of agricultural inputs for land maintenance average life agricultural inputs <fraction of agricultural inputs <Time> current agricultural inputs <Arable Land> allocated to land development> <POLICY YEAR s> land fraction harvested <land yield> <industrial output> total agricultural investment processing loss food Perceived fraction of industrial output fraction industrial output Food Ratio allocated to agriculture allocated to agriculture table 1 <population> <POLICY YEAR s> fraction of industrial output <Time> food shortage allocated to agriculture 1 perception delay food per capita food ratio fraction of industrial output allocated to agriculture 2 subsistence food per capita fraction industrial output indicated food allocated to agriculture table 2 indicated food per capita per capita 1 indicated food per capita table 1 <POLICY YEAR s> <GDP pc unit> <industrial output <Time> per capita> indicated food per capita 2 indicated food per capita table 2
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