H1 2016 Analyst & investor presentation Tuesday 10 May 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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H1 2016 Analyst & investor presentation Tuesday 10 May 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

H1 2016 Analyst & investor presentation Tuesday 10 May 2016 Introduction Carolyn McCall Chief Executive Officer easyJets resilient model continues to deliver Robust performance despite the impact from external shocks Continued


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H1 2016 Analyst & investor presentation

Tuesday 10 May 2016

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Introduction

Carolyn McCall Chief Executive Officer

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easyJet’s resilient model continues to deliver

 Robust performance despite the impact from external shocks  Continued focus on building strong network positions  Increased revenue and passenger growth at stable load factors  Strong cost performance secured flat PBT and PBT margin at constant currency  Capital structure review delivers proposed 50% payout ratio

Strong H1 performance despite shocks

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Financial review

Andrew Findlay Chief Financial Officer

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Financial performance

H1 2016 H1 2015 Change* Change* £m £m £m £m % % @ CC Total revenue 1,771 1,767 0.3% 2.9% Fuel (462) (516) 10.5% 9.7% Costs excluding fuel (1,333) (1,244) (7.2%) (7.9%) (Loss) / profit before tax (24) 7 Profit before tax at constant currency 5 7 EBITDAR 111 130 (14.8%) 9.3% EBITDAR margin 6.2% 7.3% Earnings per share (pence) (5.1) 1.3

*Favourable / (adverse) ** Profit before tax at constant currency after balance sheet revaluations

5 **

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Revenue performance

H1 2016 H1 2015 Change* Seats flown (m) 34.5 32.2 7.4% Load factor (%) 89.7% 89.7% 0.0ppt Passengers (m) 31.0 28.9 7.4% Average sector length (km) 1,054 1,072 (1.7%) Total revenue - reported (£m) 1,771 1,767 0.3% Total revenue - constant currency (£m) 1,817 1,767 2.9% Total revenue per seat - reported (£) 51.29 54.91 (6.6%) Total revenue per seat - constant currency (£) 52.62 54.91 (4.2%)

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* Favourable / (adverse)

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7 7 Footer box on intersect of lines line h=8.03 9 and v=8.75 with font 10pt Arial not bold 1.48 0.72 1.04 0.48 0.47 1.33

Resilient revenue performance

Revenue per seat bridge

H1 2016

51.29

FX Before

  • re FX

52.62

Other Easter Underlying softness Sharm el-Sheikh Paris H1 2015

54.91 91

7

(2.7%) (1.3%) (1.9%) (0.9%) (0.9%)

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A strong focus on costs

Total cost per seat bridge

0.48 0.72 0.39 0.77 0.13 0.28 0.54 2.47 0.38 51.98 98

P&L FX Fuel Before movement in fuel and FX

54.93

Other cost savings H1 201 016 A320 mix Before management action

56.42 54.70

Lean engineering contract Inflation* Balance sheet revaluations Disruption Regulated airports inflation H1 201 015

Management action External factors

  • Total cost per seat at constant currency: 4.3% decrease
  • Cost per seat ex fuel at constant currency: 0.5% increase

* Operational price increases including unregulated airports, ground handling, navigation and crew costs

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Impact of fuel & currency

H1 2016 fuel impact favourable / (adverse) H1 2016 H1 2015 Fuel $ per metric tonne Market rate 409 707 Effective price 786 925 US dollar rate Market rate 1.48 1.55 Effective price 1.61 1.59 Actual cost of fuel £ per metric tonne 489 581 H1 2016 currency impact favourable / (adverse) EUR CHF USD Other Total £m £m Revenue (47) 2 1 (2) (46) Fuel

  • 4
  • 4

Prior year balance sheet revaluations (3) 1 (2)

  • (4)

Costs excluding fuel and prior year balance sheet revaluations 18 (2) (2) (1) 13 Total (32) 1 1 (3) (33) 2 cents 92 Change 298 139 (7 cents)

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Strong cash generation

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219 41 21 314 45 215 12 392 80 23

Net working capital 31 March 2016

1,057*

Ordinary dividend Before dividend

1,276

Depn & amort Operating loss 1 October 2015

939*

Increased borrowings Tax paid CAPEX Other FX Other

  • perating

*Includes money market deposits but excludes restricted cash

  • Net cash: £296m (FY15: £435m)
  • Adjusted net debt: £474m (FY15: £363m)

Cash flow bridge

Cash generated from operations (excl dividends): £461m

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Strong balance sheet

£m £m H1 2016 H1 2015 Goodwill and other intangible assets 501 476 Property, plant and equipment 3,089 2,720 Derivative financial instruments (338) (281) Other assets (excluding cash and money market deposits) 367 355 Unearned revenue (1,080) (1,091) Other liabilities (excluding debt) (883) (856) Capital employed 1,656 1,323 Cash and money market deposits 1,057 976 Debt (761) (560) Net cash 296 416 Net assets 1,952 1,739

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Gross capital expenditure

c.£800m c.£850m c.£900m c.£650m c.£550m £0m £500m £1,000m

FY 2020 FY 2019 FY 2018 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2015

£536m

FY 2014

£449m

FY 2013

£421m

FY 2012

£392m

FY 2011

£556m

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  • Assumes base case fleet plan
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Capital Structure Review

  • The scope

pe of the revie iew entai aile led: d: A strong balance sheet is a core part of easyJet’s strategy and is fully aligned with shareholder interests

Liquidity buffer Gearing Residual Values Dividend Policy

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Capital Structure Review – Key Changes

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50% PAT dividend ratio

Curren ent Posit ition ion Upda date ted d Posit ition ion

Liqu quidi dity buffer ffer

Cash position of £4 million per aircraft Liquidity buffer including cash and revolving credit facility Cover peak unearned revenue Minimum position of £2.6 million per 100 seats

Fund nding

Mortgage funding secured on aircraft Unsecured funding via EMTN programme Mortgage funding secured on aircraft Revolving credit facility to support liquidity

Gearing

Target gearing between 15% and 30% No specific gearing target Intend to maintain current credit rating (subject to events

  • utside easyJet’s control)

Residu dual al Value

Downside flexibility through leasing arrangements Move from 70/30 owned vs leased split to 80/20 to reduce ownership costs Rolling sale and leaseback programme on A319 fleet No material change to 80/20 fleet mix outcome Downside flexibility maintained

Hedg dging

Semi-active fuel and foreign exchange hedging Simple forward contracts No change

Divide vidend 40% payout ratio of post-tax income Increase in payout ratio to 50% of post-tax income Board to keep Balance sheet under review

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Business Review

Carolyn McCall Chief Executive Officer

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Europe’s most successful airline

1. Source: Airline Analyst. AF KLM and Norwegian had negative EBIT during the last 12 months to September 2014. Air Berlin had negative EBIT in both periods , 12 months to 30 Sep 2015 2. FY 2015 3. Technical dispatch reliability

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50 33 30 27 27 20 18 16 16 13

  • 10

20 30 40 50

Numbe mber of market et pairs flown betwee een primar ary airpor

  • rts
  • 10%

10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130%

  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Geari ring ng ROCE

Market leading network Balance sheet strength1 Top quartile operational excellence

Ryanair IAG AF-KLM Air Berlin Norwegian Lufthansa

easyJet et

Customer excellence 90% 80% 74%

9/10 con

  • nsumer

ers con

  • nsider

er easyJet et in trav avel el plan ans 8/10 custome

  • mers say we are great

at value 74% of easyJet et passen enger ers have e flown with us prev eviou

  • usly

Leadin ding g bran and Custom

  • mer

er satisfact action

  • n

Custome

  • mer

loyalt alty

Asset utilisat atio ion

11.1 hou

  • urs per day2

OTP

82%

Reliabil ility ity (TDR3)

99.3 .3%

Average ge turn ti time

29 min

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easyJet - Delivering growth and returns to shareholders

17

Growth Margin Returns

  • Passenger growth of 7%-8% CAGR
  • T
  • p quartile ROCE
  • 50% PAT pay-out ratio
  • Stable margin
  • Strong cost underpin
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Resilient H1 trading

Growth Flow

  • w

Trad ading UK- Beach Paris touching Sharm el Sheikh touching UK – Ski City – City

T rading by traffic flow

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easyJet Air France Ryanair KLM Vueling British Thomson Monarch Alitalia

  • ther

7.4% easyJet capacity growth over winter

United Kingdom +9.4 .4% France +6.5 .5 % Italy 11.7%* Spain +4.5% Switzerland +8.1% Germany +7 %

Source : OAG, scheduled data and Internal easyJet projection April 2016. Country capacity growth is based on network touching seats. * Excludes Rome capacity

Investment in the network in H1

9% 7% 4% 7% 9% 12% 5% 12% 8% 5% 7% 5%

Market growth easyJet growth in the market

Netherlands +27%

7% 27%

Portugal +21.3 .3%

12% 21%

Growth 19

Market share on easyJet routes

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Depth in high GDP markets

1) Catchment areas defined as population living within 50km of airports within the market and ranked according to GDP for that area; 2) Rank of short haul capacity for the 12 months to September 2015; 3) Manchester catchment includes Liverpool airport; 4) Dusseldorf catchment includes Cologne, Dortmund, Friedrichshafen, Nuremburg and Paderborn; 5) Zurich catchment includes Basel

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easyJ syJet et network

  • rk
  • Number 1 or 2 position in the primary airport in 12 of Europe’s top 25

catchmen hment t areas as by GDP1

1 Growth

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1) Based on theoretical max runway capacity at airport, Peak = first wave departures (before 8.30am) on weekdays in IATA Summer season . For leisure destinations may also include weekend peak demand periods 2) Based on summer 2016 schedule

Airpor

  • rt

Curren ent morning peak k utilisat ation

  • n? 1

easyJet et tou

  • uching

g aircraft aft2 London Gatwick

69

Geneva

20

Bristol

14

Luton

21

Basel

14

Manchester

12

Schiphol

13

Milan Malpensa

22

Edinburgh

11

Belfast

9

A network that is difficult to replicate

>90% utilised 80-90% utilised

Growth

Strong positions at key airports Increasing frequencies

<80% utilised

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1 2 3 4 5 6 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 Weekly Frequency Addition YoY Number of Daily Flights Average Topups Per Week Average For flights previously with at least a daily frequency, easyJet added YoY on average 1.2 frequencies per week.

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Investing in our network

Deepening the network New bases

22 Growth

Venice Marco Polo London Luton Amsterdam Schiphol

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Leading in digital

23 Growth

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Leading in data FLI LIGHT GHT CLUB

24 Growth

25 25m m

marke ketable e custom tomers ers

74 74% %

return rning ing custome tomers rs

41 41.5 5

averag age age

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Grow revenue

25 Growth

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Cost review delivers flat CPS target

26 Margin

Efficient and effective cost base

Lean programme

  • ffsets inflation

CPS ex fuel

Relentless focus on an efficient cost base Embed Lean programme across all functions Innovation led approach to lean savings Continue to maintain industry leading utilisation Lean Principles

2015 2019

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Strong pipeline of cost saving initiatives

27 Margin

Focus s area Savings* ings*

Airports & ground handling (eg: LGW)

£ £ £

Supplier relationship management

£ £

Maintenance efficiency

£ £ £

Fleet up-gauging

£ £ £

Lean bases & smart scheduling

£ £

Invest in people

£

Detailed focus on overheads

£ £

IT investment

£ £

Use of data to drive efficiency

£ Lean Target - Flat CPS ex-fuel between 2015-2019

  • *Size of savings – More £ signs means larger saving
  • Lean target assumes pre abnormal levels of disruption
  • Porto

Barcelona Maintenance Ground handling

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Up-gauging our fleet

28 Margin

Up-gauging delivering CPS savings

156 seat ats 186 seat ats

Current generation A319 New generation A320neo

13% 3% -14% 4%

New A320 cabin, 186 seats

  • CPS savings based on fuel price quoted in original plan
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Operational excellence

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Increased customer satisfaction Greater operational efficiency Delivering cost savings

(single ground handling fleet)

Margin

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Outlook in 2016

Capaci city y (seats s flown)

  • H2 c.+6.5% (before disruption)
  • FY c.+7% (before disruption)

Revenue p per seat at constant currency

  • Q3 revenue per seat: down c. 7%
  • H2 revenue per seat: down low to mid single digits

Cost per seat at constant currency

  • FY cost per seat excluding fuel: down c. 1% (assuming normal levels of disruption)

FX FX

  • H2: c.£20 million adverse movement from foreign exchange rates
  • FY: c.£55 million adverse movement from foreign exchange rates

Fuel

  • H2: unit fuel costs £85 million to £90 million favourable
  • FY: unit fuel costs £170 million to £180 million favourable
  • Expected total fuel cost £1,120 million

Rates at 9 May 2016 £/USD: 1.4390; £/EUR: 1.2635 Unit fuel guidance based on Jet fuel trading range of $350 / metric tonne to $450 / metric tonne

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easyJet is a structural winner

  • Europe's best network that is difficult to replicate
  • Best customer proposition
  • Constant innovation to drive demand and loyalty
  • Cost plan to deliver flat CPS ex-fuel
  • 50% profit after tax pay-out ratio

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Q & A

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appendix

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Fuel and foreign exchange hedging

Sensitivities – FY16

  • $10 per tonne change in fuel price will impact the full year pre-tax result by +/- $1.5 million
  • One cent movement in the £/$ will impact the full year pre-tax result by +/- £1.3 million
  • One cent movement in the £/€ will impact the full year pre-tax result by +/- £0.6 million

Fuel requirement US dollar requirement Euro surplus CHF surplus lus

Six months ending 30 September 2016 87% at $793/ metric tonne 76% at $1.61/£ 79% at €1.25/£ 73% at CHF1.46/£ Full year ending 30 September 2016 87% at $814/ metric tonne 80% at $1.62/£ 86% at €1.23/£ 81% at CHF1.46/£ Full year ending 30 September 2017 76% at $626 / metric tonne 70% at $1.53/£ 71% at €1.32/£ 68% at CHF1.42/£

As at 6 May 2016

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H2 forward bookings

% seats sold *

H2 (April 2016 to September 2016) as at 6 May 2016

H2 bookings in line with prior year

35 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep H2

Summer '15 Summer '16

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36 36 Footer box on intersect of lines line h=8.03 9 and v=8.75 with font 10pt Arial not bold easyjet Ryanair Vueling BA AF-KLM Other

Competitive capacity environment in H2

Source: Market capacity data from OAG scheduled data, as at 6 May 016 easyJet markets based on internal easyJet definition. easyJet growth based

  • n H2 2016 schedule vs H2 2015 flown capacity

Short-haul market easyJet city to city pairs

7.6% split by carri rier er

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5.6% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 5.4% 6.5% 8.2% 7.6% Capacity change total SH Market easyJet capacity change Competitors on easyJet markets Capacity Change easyJet markets

Summer 15 Summer 16

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Overall c. 6.6% capacity growth over summer

United Kingdom +6% France +10 % Italy 0% 0% Spain +6% Switzerland +5% Germany +2 %

Source : OAG, scheduled data and Internal easyJet projection April 2016. Country capacity growth is based on network touching seats.

Investment in the network

6% 8% 5% 10% 6% 0% 6% 10% 5% 0% 2% 5%

Market growth easyJet growth in the market

Netherlands +21% +21%

7% 21%

Portugal +15%

14% 15%

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Profit before tax

Profit before tax per seat bridge

0.16 0.48 0.21 0.72 0.39

Underlying softness Lean engineering contract A320 Mix

0.38

Disruption

0.28

Cost inflation*

0.77

Balance sheet revaluations

0.13

Fuel

2.47

Regulated airports inflation

0.54

Other revenue

0.47 0.69

H1 201 016 P&L Fx

0.85

H1 2016 @ CC Other cost savings

1.04

Paris and Sharm el-Sheikh

2.20

Easter H1 201 015

* Operational price increases including unregulated airports, ground handling, navigation and crew costs

Revenue Costs

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Loss after tax

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£m £m H1 2016 H1 2015 Change (Loss) / profit before tax (24) 7 (31) Tax credit / (charge) 4 (2) (6) (Loss) / profit after tax (20) 5 (25) Effective tax 18.1% 20.4% 2.3ppt

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Revenue per seat

£ per seat H1 2016 H1 2015 Change Seat revenue 50.39 54.05 (6.8%) Non-seat revenue 0.90 0.86 4.6% Total revenue 51.29 54.91 (6.6%)

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Fleet flexibility

Extra aircraft allows greater flexibility in fleet planning

303 333 346 359 257 277 250 223 227 219 301 312 335 357 150 200 250 300 350 400

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Contracted Max Downside case Base Case 41

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Cost per seat excluding fuel - key drivers

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* Excludes foreign exchange gains and losses on balance sheet revaluations

Cost per seat excluding fuel Variance at constant currency Variance at constant currency Weighting of variance £ £ % %

  • Efficiency gained from upgauging our fleet

from an average of 164 to 166 seats per aircraft

  • Decrease in average sector length
  • Improved crew scheduling
  • Offset by pay increases
  • Reduction in number of leased aircraft in the

fleet

  • Savings from new maintenance contract
  • Offset by Inflationary increases

Overhead 5.46 (0.14) (2.8%) (0.4%)

  • Higher disruption costs
  • Rate increases and investment in ground

handling at Gatwick

  • Offset by volume savings and savings from

new contracts

Navigation 3.91 0.01 0.4%

  • Decrease in average sector length
  • Depreciation on new aircraft purchased
  • Offset against decreasing lease costs

38.68 (0.18) (0.5%) (0.5%) Net Exchange (gains)/losses (0.07) Total CPS excluding fuel 38.61 Airports and Ground handling 14.88 Ownership ex revaluations* 3.96

  • (0.19)

(0.5%) 0.3% 0.6%

  • 7.25

3.22 1.6% Drivers (1.3%) Crew 0.12 Maintenance 0.02 0.1%

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Increasing proportion of A320’s

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H1 2016 H1 2015 Change A319 (operating lease) 45 50 (5) A319 (owned / finance lease) 99 99 A319 Total 144 149 (5) A320 (operating lease) 18 18 A320 (owned / finance lease) 85 63 22 A320 Total 103 81 22 Total fleet 247 230 17 17 Percentage unencumbered 52% 44% 8ppt Percentage operating lease 26% 30%

  • 4ppt

Percentage of A320s in fleet 42% 35% 7ppt Average seats per aircraft 166 164 1.0%

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Currency impact

Average effective Euro rate for revenue for H1 2016 was €1.32 (H1 2015: €1.24) Average effective Euro rate for costs for H1 2016 was €1.34 (H1 2015: €1.30)

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H1 2016 H1 2015 H1 2016 H1 2015 Sterling 47% 46% 29% 27% Euro 41% 43% 33% 33% 31% US dollar 1% 1% 1% 32% 35% Other (principally Swiss franc) 11% 11% 10% 6% 6% 7% Revenue Costs

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Disclaimer

Certain statements in this presentation constitute or may constitute forward-looking statements. Any statement in this presentation that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company’s future expectations, operations, financial performance, financial condition and business is or may be a forward-looking statement. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied in any forward- looking statement. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market

  • conditions. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described in this
  • presentation. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking

statements reflect knowledge and information available at the date of this presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update its view of such risks and uncertainties or to update the forward-looking statements contained herein. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast or profit estimate and no statement in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that the future earnings per share of the Company for current or future financial years will necessarily match or exceed the historical or published earnings per share of the Company. This communication is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments who fall within the definition of “investment professionals” in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001;

  • r (ii) high net worth bodies corporate, unincorporated associations and partnerships and trustees of high value trusts as described in

Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. Persons within the United Kingdom who receive this communication (other than those falling within (i) and (ii) above) should not rely on or act upon the contents of this

  • communication. Nothing in this presentation is intended to constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity for

the purposes of the prohibition on financial promotion contained in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. This presentation has been furnished to you solely for information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person, nor may it be published in whole or in part, for any other purpose. This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation

  • f any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities of easyJet plc (“easyJet”) in any jurisdiction nor should it or any part of it form the

basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of easyJet. Without limitation to the foregoing, these materials do not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Securities may not be offered or sold into the United States absent registration under the US Securities Act of 1933 or an exemption there from. easyJet has not verified any of the information set out in this presentation. Without prejudice to the foregoing, neither easyJet nor its associates nor any officer, director, employee or representative of any of them accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss however arising, directly or indirectly, from any reliance on this presentation or its contents. This presentation is not being issued, and is not for distribution in, the United States (with certain limited exceptions in accordance with the US Securities Act of 1933) or in any jurisdiction where such distribution is unlawful and is not for distribution to publications with a general circulation in the United States. By attending or reading this presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

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