H1 2016 Analyst & investor presentation
Tuesday 10 May 2016
H1 2016 Analyst & investor presentation Tuesday 10 May 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
H1 2016 Analyst & investor presentation Tuesday 10 May 2016 Introduction Carolyn McCall Chief Executive Officer easyJets resilient model continues to deliver Robust performance despite the impact from external shocks Continued
Tuesday 10 May 2016
Carolyn McCall Chief Executive Officer
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easyJet’s resilient model continues to deliver
Robust performance despite the impact from external shocks Continued focus on building strong network positions Increased revenue and passenger growth at stable load factors Strong cost performance secured flat PBT and PBT margin at constant currency Capital structure review delivers proposed 50% payout ratio
Strong H1 performance despite shocks
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Andrew Findlay Chief Financial Officer
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Financial performance
H1 2016 H1 2015 Change* Change* £m £m £m £m % % @ CC Total revenue 1,771 1,767 0.3% 2.9% Fuel (462) (516) 10.5% 9.7% Costs excluding fuel (1,333) (1,244) (7.2%) (7.9%) (Loss) / profit before tax (24) 7 Profit before tax at constant currency 5 7 EBITDAR 111 130 (14.8%) 9.3% EBITDAR margin 6.2% 7.3% Earnings per share (pence) (5.1) 1.3
*Favourable / (adverse) ** Profit before tax at constant currency after balance sheet revaluations
5 **
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Revenue performance
H1 2016 H1 2015 Change* Seats flown (m) 34.5 32.2 7.4% Load factor (%) 89.7% 89.7% 0.0ppt Passengers (m) 31.0 28.9 7.4% Average sector length (km) 1,054 1,072 (1.7%) Total revenue - reported (£m) 1,771 1,767 0.3% Total revenue - constant currency (£m) 1,817 1,767 2.9% Total revenue per seat - reported (£) 51.29 54.91 (6.6%) Total revenue per seat - constant currency (£) 52.62 54.91 (4.2%)
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* Favourable / (adverse)
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Revenue per seat bridge
H1 2016
51.29
FX Before
52.62
Other Easter Underlying softness Sharm el-Sheikh Paris H1 2015
54.91 91
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(2.7%) (1.3%) (1.9%) (0.9%) (0.9%)
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Total cost per seat bridge
0.48 0.72 0.39 0.77 0.13 0.28 0.54 2.47 0.38 51.98 98
P&L FX Fuel Before movement in fuel and FX
54.93
Other cost savings H1 201 016 A320 mix Before management action
56.42 54.70
Lean engineering contract Inflation* Balance sheet revaluations Disruption Regulated airports inflation H1 201 015
Management action External factors
* Operational price increases including unregulated airports, ground handling, navigation and crew costs
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H1 2016 fuel impact favourable / (adverse) H1 2016 H1 2015 Fuel $ per metric tonne Market rate 409 707 Effective price 786 925 US dollar rate Market rate 1.48 1.55 Effective price 1.61 1.59 Actual cost of fuel £ per metric tonne 489 581 H1 2016 currency impact favourable / (adverse) EUR CHF USD Other Total £m £m Revenue (47) 2 1 (2) (46) Fuel
Prior year balance sheet revaluations (3) 1 (2)
Costs excluding fuel and prior year balance sheet revaluations 18 (2) (2) (1) 13 Total (32) 1 1 (3) (33) 2 cents 92 Change 298 139 (7 cents)
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Strong cash generation
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219 41 21 314 45 215 12 392 80 23
Net working capital 31 March 2016
1,057*
Ordinary dividend Before dividend
1,276
Depn & amort Operating loss 1 October 2015
939*
Increased borrowings Tax paid CAPEX Other FX Other
*Includes money market deposits but excludes restricted cash
Cash flow bridge
Cash generated from operations (excl dividends): £461m
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Strong balance sheet
£m £m H1 2016 H1 2015 Goodwill and other intangible assets 501 476 Property, plant and equipment 3,089 2,720 Derivative financial instruments (338) (281) Other assets (excluding cash and money market deposits) 367 355 Unearned revenue (1,080) (1,091) Other liabilities (excluding debt) (883) (856) Capital employed 1,656 1,323 Cash and money market deposits 1,057 976 Debt (761) (560) Net cash 296 416 Net assets 1,952 1,739
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Gross capital expenditure
c.£800m c.£850m c.£900m c.£650m c.£550m £0m £500m £1,000m
FY 2020 FY 2019 FY 2018 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2015
£536m
FY 2014
£449m
FY 2013
£421m
FY 2012
£392m
FY 2011
£556m
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Capital Structure Review
pe of the revie iew entai aile led: d: A strong balance sheet is a core part of easyJet’s strategy and is fully aligned with shareholder interests
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Capital Structure Review – Key Changes
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50% PAT dividend ratio
Curren ent Posit ition ion Upda date ted d Posit ition ion
Liqu quidi dity buffer ffer
Cash position of £4 million per aircraft Liquidity buffer including cash and revolving credit facility Cover peak unearned revenue Minimum position of £2.6 million per 100 seats
Fund nding
Mortgage funding secured on aircraft Unsecured funding via EMTN programme Mortgage funding secured on aircraft Revolving credit facility to support liquidity
Gearing
Target gearing between 15% and 30% No specific gearing target Intend to maintain current credit rating (subject to events
Residu dual al Value
Downside flexibility through leasing arrangements Move from 70/30 owned vs leased split to 80/20 to reduce ownership costs Rolling sale and leaseback programme on A319 fleet No material change to 80/20 fleet mix outcome Downside flexibility maintained
Hedg dging
Semi-active fuel and foreign exchange hedging Simple forward contracts No change
Divide vidend 40% payout ratio of post-tax income Increase in payout ratio to 50% of post-tax income Board to keep Balance sheet under review
Carolyn McCall Chief Executive Officer
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Europe’s most successful airline
1. Source: Airline Analyst. AF KLM and Norwegian had negative EBIT during the last 12 months to September 2014. Air Berlin had negative EBIT in both periods , 12 months to 30 Sep 2015 2. FY 2015 3. Technical dispatch reliability
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50 33 30 27 27 20 18 16 16 13
20 30 40 50
Numbe mber of market et pairs flown betwee een primar ary airpor
10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Geari ring ng ROCE
Market leading network Balance sheet strength1 Top quartile operational excellence
Ryanair IAG AF-KLM Air Berlin Norwegian Lufthansa
easyJet et
Customer excellence 90% 80% 74%
9/10 con
ers con
er easyJet et in trav avel el plan ans 8/10 custome
at value 74% of easyJet et passen enger ers have e flown with us prev eviou
Leadin ding g bran and Custom
er satisfact action
Custome
loyalt alty
Asset utilisat atio ion
11.1 hou
OTP
82%
Reliabil ility ity (TDR3)
99.3 .3%
Average ge turn ti time
29 min
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easyJet - Delivering growth and returns to shareholders
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Growth Margin Returns
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Resilient H1 trading
Growth Flow
Trad ading UK- Beach Paris touching Sharm el Sheikh touching UK – Ski City – City
T rading by traffic flow
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easyJet Air France Ryanair KLM Vueling British Thomson Monarch Alitalia
7.4% easyJet capacity growth over winter
United Kingdom +9.4 .4% France +6.5 .5 % Italy 11.7%* Spain +4.5% Switzerland +8.1% Germany +7 %
Source : OAG, scheduled data and Internal easyJet projection April 2016. Country capacity growth is based on network touching seats. * Excludes Rome capacity
Investment in the network in H1
9% 7% 4% 7% 9% 12% 5% 12% 8% 5% 7% 5%
Market growth easyJet growth in the market
Netherlands +27%
7% 27%
Portugal +21.3 .3%
12% 21%
Growth 19
Market share on easyJet routes
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Depth in high GDP markets
1) Catchment areas defined as population living within 50km of airports within the market and ranked according to GDP for that area; 2) Rank of short haul capacity for the 12 months to September 2015; 3) Manchester catchment includes Liverpool airport; 4) Dusseldorf catchment includes Cologne, Dortmund, Friedrichshafen, Nuremburg and Paderborn; 5) Zurich catchment includes Basel
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easyJ syJet et network
catchmen hment t areas as by GDP1
1 Growth
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1) Based on theoretical max runway capacity at airport, Peak = first wave departures (before 8.30am) on weekdays in IATA Summer season . For leisure destinations may also include weekend peak demand periods 2) Based on summer 2016 schedule
Airpor
Curren ent morning peak k utilisat ation
easyJet et tou
g aircraft aft2 London Gatwick
69
Geneva
20
Bristol
14
Luton
21
Basel
14
Manchester
12
Schiphol
13
Milan Malpensa
22
Edinburgh
11
Belfast
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A network that is difficult to replicate
>90% utilised 80-90% utilised
Growth
Strong positions at key airports Increasing frequencies
<80% utilised
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1 2 3 4 5 6 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 Weekly Frequency Addition YoY Number of Daily Flights Average Topups Per Week Average For flights previously with at least a daily frequency, easyJet added YoY on average 1.2 frequencies per week.
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Investing in our network
Deepening the network New bases
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Venice Marco Polo London Luton Amsterdam Schiphol
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Leading in digital
23 Growth
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Leading in data FLI LIGHT GHT CLUB
24 Growth
marke ketable e custom tomers ers
return rning ing custome tomers rs
averag age age
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Grow revenue
25 Growth
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Cost review delivers flat CPS target
26 Margin
Efficient and effective cost base
Lean programme
CPS ex fuel
Relentless focus on an efficient cost base Embed Lean programme across all functions Innovation led approach to lean savings Continue to maintain industry leading utilisation Lean Principles
2015 2019
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Strong pipeline of cost saving initiatives
27 Margin
Focus s area Savings* ings*
Airports & ground handling (eg: LGW)
£ £ £
Supplier relationship management
£ £
Maintenance efficiency
£ £ £
Fleet up-gauging
£ £ £
Lean bases & smart scheduling
£ £
Invest in people
£
Detailed focus on overheads
£ £
IT investment
£ £
Use of data to drive efficiency
£ Lean Target - Flat CPS ex-fuel between 2015-2019
Barcelona Maintenance Ground handling
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Up-gauging our fleet
28 Margin
Up-gauging delivering CPS savings
156 seat ats 186 seat ats
Current generation A319 New generation A320neo
13% 3% -14% 4%
New A320 cabin, 186 seats
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Operational excellence
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Increased customer satisfaction Greater operational efficiency Delivering cost savings
(single ground handling fleet)
Margin
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Outlook in 2016
Capaci city y (seats s flown)
Revenue p per seat at constant currency
Cost per seat at constant currency
FX FX
Fuel
Rates at 9 May 2016 £/USD: 1.4390; £/EUR: 1.2635 Unit fuel guidance based on Jet fuel trading range of $350 / metric tonne to $450 / metric tonne
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easyJet is a structural winner
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Sensitivities – FY16
Fuel requirement US dollar requirement Euro surplus CHF surplus lus
Six months ending 30 September 2016 87% at $793/ metric tonne 76% at $1.61/£ 79% at €1.25/£ 73% at CHF1.46/£ Full year ending 30 September 2016 87% at $814/ metric tonne 80% at $1.62/£ 86% at €1.23/£ 81% at CHF1.46/£ Full year ending 30 September 2017 76% at $626 / metric tonne 70% at $1.53/£ 71% at €1.32/£ 68% at CHF1.42/£
As at 6 May 2016
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H2 forward bookings
% seats sold *
H2 (April 2016 to September 2016) as at 6 May 2016
H2 bookings in line with prior year
35 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep H2
Summer '15 Summer '16
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Competitive capacity environment in H2
Source: Market capacity data from OAG scheduled data, as at 6 May 016 easyJet markets based on internal easyJet definition. easyJet growth based
Short-haul market easyJet city to city pairs
7.6% split by carri rier er
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5.6% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 5.4% 6.5% 8.2% 7.6% Capacity change total SH Market easyJet capacity change Competitors on easyJet markets Capacity Change easyJet markets
Summer 15 Summer 16
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Overall c. 6.6% capacity growth over summer
United Kingdom +6% France +10 % Italy 0% 0% Spain +6% Switzerland +5% Germany +2 %
Source : OAG, scheduled data and Internal easyJet projection April 2016. Country capacity growth is based on network touching seats.
Investment in the network
6% 8% 5% 10% 6% 0% 6% 10% 5% 0% 2% 5%
Market growth easyJet growth in the market
Netherlands +21% +21%
7% 21%
Portugal +15%
14% 15%
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Profit before tax per seat bridge
0.16 0.48 0.21 0.72 0.39
Underlying softness Lean engineering contract A320 Mix
0.38
Disruption
0.28
Cost inflation*
0.77
Balance sheet revaluations
0.13
Fuel
2.47
Regulated airports inflation
0.54
Other revenue
0.47 0.69
H1 201 016 P&L Fx
0.85
H1 2016 @ CC Other cost savings
1.04
Paris and Sharm el-Sheikh
2.20
Easter H1 201 015
* Operational price increases including unregulated airports, ground handling, navigation and crew costs
Revenue Costs
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£m £m H1 2016 H1 2015 Change (Loss) / profit before tax (24) 7 (31) Tax credit / (charge) 4 (2) (6) (Loss) / profit after tax (20) 5 (25) Effective tax 18.1% 20.4% 2.3ppt
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£ per seat H1 2016 H1 2015 Change Seat revenue 50.39 54.05 (6.8%) Non-seat revenue 0.90 0.86 4.6% Total revenue 51.29 54.91 (6.6%)
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Extra aircraft allows greater flexibility in fleet planning
303 333 346 359 257 277 250 223 227 219 301 312 335 357 150 200 250 300 350 400
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Contracted Max Downside case Base Case 41
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* Excludes foreign exchange gains and losses on balance sheet revaluations
Cost per seat excluding fuel Variance at constant currency Variance at constant currency Weighting of variance £ £ % %
from an average of 164 to 166 seats per aircraft
fleet
Overhead 5.46 (0.14) (2.8%) (0.4%)
handling at Gatwick
new contracts
Navigation 3.91 0.01 0.4%
38.68 (0.18) (0.5%) (0.5%) Net Exchange (gains)/losses (0.07) Total CPS excluding fuel 38.61 Airports and Ground handling 14.88 Ownership ex revaluations* 3.96
(0.5%) 0.3% 0.6%
3.22 1.6% Drivers (1.3%) Crew 0.12 Maintenance 0.02 0.1%
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H1 2016 H1 2015 Change A319 (operating lease) 45 50 (5) A319 (owned / finance lease) 99 99 A319 Total 144 149 (5) A320 (operating lease) 18 18 A320 (owned / finance lease) 85 63 22 A320 Total 103 81 22 Total fleet 247 230 17 17 Percentage unencumbered 52% 44% 8ppt Percentage operating lease 26% 30%
Percentage of A320s in fleet 42% 35% 7ppt Average seats per aircraft 166 164 1.0%
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Average effective Euro rate for revenue for H1 2016 was €1.32 (H1 2015: €1.24) Average effective Euro rate for costs for H1 2016 was €1.34 (H1 2015: €1.30)
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H1 2016 H1 2015 H1 2016 H1 2015 Sterling 47% 46% 29% 27% Euro 41% 43% 33% 33% 31% US dollar 1% 1% 1% 32% 35% Other (principally Swiss franc) 11% 11% 10% 6% 6% 7% Revenue Costs
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Certain statements in this presentation constitute or may constitute forward-looking statements. Any statement in this presentation that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company’s future expectations, operations, financial performance, financial condition and business is or may be a forward-looking statement. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied in any forward- looking statement. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market
statements reflect knowledge and information available at the date of this presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update its view of such risks and uncertainties or to update the forward-looking statements contained herein. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast or profit estimate and no statement in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that the future earnings per share of the Company for current or future financial years will necessarily match or exceed the historical or published earnings per share of the Company. This communication is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments who fall within the definition of “investment professionals” in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001;
Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. Persons within the United Kingdom who receive this communication (other than those falling within (i) and (ii) above) should not rely on or act upon the contents of this
the purposes of the prohibition on financial promotion contained in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. This presentation has been furnished to you solely for information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person, nor may it be published in whole or in part, for any other purpose. This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation
basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of easyJet. Without limitation to the foregoing, these materials do not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Securities may not be offered or sold into the United States absent registration under the US Securities Act of 1933 or an exemption there from. easyJet has not verified any of the information set out in this presentation. Without prejudice to the foregoing, neither easyJet nor its associates nor any officer, director, employee or representative of any of them accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss however arising, directly or indirectly, from any reliance on this presentation or its contents. This presentation is not being issued, and is not for distribution in, the United States (with certain limited exceptions in accordance with the US Securities Act of 1933) or in any jurisdiction where such distribution is unlawful and is not for distribution to publications with a general circulation in the United States. By attending or reading this presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
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