Gradients of productivity and flammability drive fire regimes - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Gradients of productivity and flammability drive fire regimes - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Gradients of productivity and flammability drive fire regimes in the SW US Larissa Yocom Don Falk Andi Thode Utah State University University of Arizona Northern Arizona


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Gradientsofproductivity andflammabilitydrive fireregimesintheSWUS

LarissaYocom

UtahStateUniversity

MikeCrimmins

UniversityofArizona

DonFalk

UniversityofArizona

RachelLoehman

USGS

AndiThode

NorthernArizonaUniversity

WillFlatley

UniversityofCentralArkansas

Collaborators:

MeganFriggens

U.S.ForestService

ZanderEvans

ForestGuild

WindyBunn

NationalParkService

CraigWilcox

U.S.ForestService

ShaulaHedwall

USFWS

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Fireregimecontrols: climate,ignitions,vegetation

Figure:Moritz,Hessburg andPovak inMcKenzieetal.2011

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Climate &vegetation arechanging

Hoerling etal.2013

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Climate &vegetation arechanging

Hoerling etal.2013 C.D.AlleninMcDowell&Allen2015 Cayan etal.2013

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Vegetationandfireregimes varyalongelevationgradients

Merriam’sLifeZones Fuellimitation Flammabilitylimitation Peakin firefrequency Lowfuelmass &continuity Highfuel moisture

Historical Firefrequency

Elevation Elevation

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Questions

  • Doweseethiscurveinavailabledata?
  • Whatislikelytohappentofireactivityinthe

future?

Historical Future? Firefrequency Elevation

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Studyarea

At1,539,393randomlylocatedpoints,weextracted:

  • Elevation(Landfire)
  • Vegetation:BioPhysical Setting(Landfire)
  • NetPrimaryProductivity(NTSG)
  • Climate(Gridmet &MACA)
  • Historicalfirefrequency&severity(Landfire)
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MAP,MAT,VPDƒ elevation

Precipitation(mm) Temperature(°C) VPD(kPa) Elevation Elevation Elevation

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NPPƒ MAP,MAT,VPD

NPP(kgC/m2 Elevation Precipitation Temperature VPD

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Vegetationtypesƒ elevation,climate

VPD Temperature Precipitation NPP

Mixedcon Ponderosa Woodland Shrub Grass Desertgrass Scrub Mixedcon Ponderosa Woodland Shrub Grass Desertgrass Scrub

Fuel limitation Flammability limitation

Elevation

Fuel limitation Flammability limitation

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Firefrequency&severityreflectinteractions

  • ffuelproductivity&flammability

Elevation Precipitation Temperature VPD NPP MFRI MFRI MFRI Elevation Precipitation Temperature VPD NPP %HighSev %HighSev %HighSev

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Projectedchangesinclimateare variableacrosstheelevationgradient

  • RCP8.5scenario,20402069vs.19812010

inPrecipitation inTemperature inVPD Elevation Elevation Elevation

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Projectedchangesbyvegetationclass

RCP8.5scenario,20402069vs.19812010

Mixedconifer Ponderosa Woodland Shrub Grass Desertgrass Scrub

Precipitation Temperature VPD %Precipitation %Temperature %VPD

Mixedconifer Ponderosa Woodland Shrub Grass Desertgrass Scrub

CHANGE %CHANGE

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Projected%changeinclimatevariables

RCP8.5,19812010to20402069

DatafromMACA;Abatzoglou andBrown2011

Precipitation Temperature VPD

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Projected%changeinclimatevariables

RCP8.5,19812010to20402069

DatafromMACA;Abatzoglou andBrown2011

Precipitation Temperature VPD

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Caveats

  • Wefocusedonhistoricalfirefrequency;frequency

hasalreadychanged

  • Historicalfirefrequencystillrepresentsfire

potential,becauseofthecrossingofthetwofire limitationgradients(fuelload/continuity& flammability)

  • Also:aconfoundingfactoroflegacyfuelsfrom

suppressionera

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Conclusions

  • Somethoughts
  • Lowestelevations:greatestabsolutechange
  • Highestelevations:greatest%change
  • Somepartsofthegradienthavetighterrelationships no

wiggleroom?

  • Otherplacesonthegradienthavewidevariability roomfor

flexibility?

  • Ifmoreprecip inlowelevationplaces:theystopbeingfuels

limited

  • Ifhighertempsinhighelevationplaces:theystopbeing

flammabilitylimited

  • Placebasedanalysesarecritical;incorporatefeedbacks
  • Question:Atwhatscalecanwesafelygeneralizeabout

trendsandforecasts?

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Thankyou

Funding:JointFireScienceProgram