Gradients of productivity and flammability drive fire regimes - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Gradients of productivity and flammability drive fire regimes in the SW US Larissa Yocom Don Falk Andi Thode Utah State University University of Arizona Northern Arizona
LarissaYocom
UtahStateUniversity
MikeCrimmins
UniversityofArizona
DonFalk
UniversityofArizona
RachelLoehman
USGS
AndiThode
NorthernArizonaUniversity
WillFlatley
UniversityofCentralArkansas
Collaborators:
MeganFriggens
U.S.ForestService
ZanderEvans
ForestGuild
WindyBunn
NationalParkService
CraigWilcox
U.S.ForestService
ShaulaHedwall
USFWS
Figure:Moritz,Hessburg andPovak inMcKenzieetal.2011
Hoerling etal.2013
Hoerling etal.2013 C.D.AlleninMcDowell&Allen2015 Cayan etal.2013
Merriam’sLifeZones Fuellimitation Flammabilitylimitation Peakin firefrequency Lowfuelmass &continuity Highfuel moisture
Historical Firefrequency
Elevation Elevation
Historical Future? Firefrequency Elevation
At1,539,393randomlylocatedpoints,weextracted:
Precipitation(mm) Temperature(°C) VPD(kPa) Elevation Elevation Elevation
NPP(kgC/m2 Elevation Precipitation Temperature VPD
VPD Temperature Precipitation NPP
Mixedcon Ponderosa Woodland Shrub Grass Desertgrass Scrub Mixedcon Ponderosa Woodland Shrub Grass Desertgrass Scrub
Fuel limitation Flammability limitation
Elevation
Fuel limitation Flammability limitation
Elevation Precipitation Temperature VPD NPP MFRI MFRI MFRI Elevation Precipitation Temperature VPD NPP %HighSev %HighSev %HighSev
inPrecipitation inTemperature inVPD Elevation Elevation Elevation
Mixedconifer Ponderosa Woodland Shrub Grass Desertgrass Scrub
Precipitation Temperature VPD %Precipitation %Temperature %VPD
Mixedconifer Ponderosa Woodland Shrub Grass Desertgrass Scrub
CHANGE %CHANGE
DatafromMACA;Abatzoglou andBrown2011
Precipitation Temperature VPD
DatafromMACA;Abatzoglou andBrown2011
Precipitation Temperature VPD
wiggleroom?
flexibility?
limited
flammabilitylimited
trendsandforecasts?