Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation The Hawthorn Club - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation

The Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series The Interweb, 23 June 2020

Michael Liebreich Founder and CEO Liebreich Associates

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

$95bn $121bn $181bn $228bn $258bn $240bn $320bn $350bn $324bn $302bn $369bn $413bn $358bn $402bn $378bn $383bn

100 200 300 400 500 600 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Global clean energy investment and capacity installations 2004 – 2019

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Includes large hydro. Source: BNEF, IRENA

36GW ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 91GW ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 197 GW

50 100 150 200

“Spend more, get more” “Spend the same, get more”

$360 billion

179 GW 147GW

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2016

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Morocco Enel Green Power 2016 2018

Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Chile Solarpack August 2016 2019 Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Denmark Vattenfall 2016 2022

US$ 5.3 c/kWh US$ 3.0 c/kWh US$ 2.91 c/kWh

Source: Various manufacturers and project developers Note: images are illustrative only

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2018

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Mexico Neoen Nov 2017 2019

Solar PV Onshore wind

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Mexico Enel Nov 2017 2018

Offshore wind

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Denmark Vattenfall 2016 2022

US$ 5.3 c/kWh US$ 1.77 c/kWh US$ 1.97 c/kWh

Source: Various manufacturers and project developers Note: images are illustrative only

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2019

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Mexico Neoen Nov 2017 2019

Solar PV Onshore wind

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: UAE ACWA October 2019 2021

Offshore wind

US$ 1.77 c/kWh US$ 1.69 c/kWh

Source: Various manufacturers and project developers Note: images are illustrative only

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Germany Dong/ENBW 2016 2024

US$ 4.9 c/kWh

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2020

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Mexico Neoen Nov 2017 2019

Solar PV Onshore wind

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Qatar Total/Marubeni Jan 2020 2021-2022

Offshore wind

US$ 1.77 c/kWh US$ 1.57 c/kWh

Source: Various manufacturers and project developers Note: images are illustrative only

Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Germany Dong/ENBW 2016 2024

US$ 4.9 c/kWh

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Liebreich Associates; BNEF; BP Note: Calculated as GWh renewable production / GWh consumption

RE proportion of power generation 2007 – 2017

8% 17%

US

61% 66%

Canada

88% 81%

Brazil

16% 52%

Italy

14% 36%

Germany

18% 19%

India

15% 27%

China

9% 17%

Japan

8% 20%

Australia Wind & solar Other renewables

19% 34%

Spain

5% 33%

UK

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Liebreich Associates, IEA, BP, World Bank

Global share of power generation by source 1971 - 2019

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Image: Lomborg.com

Wind and solar are not taking over the world Today, solar and wind make up just 0.8% of global energy. In a quarter century, solar and wind will produce less than 4% of global energy

Bjørn Lomborg visiting professor at the Copenhagen Business School President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center 4 February 2018

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Image: Mark Lyons/Getty Images

Trump on US coal

July 2017

And you know all the people that were saying the mining jobs? Well we picked up 45,000 mining jobs in a very short period of time.

Donald Trump US President

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Fact-checking – US coal mining monthly employment Jan 1995 – May 2020

President Obama President Trump President GW Bush President Clinton

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Gridwatch.uk, Liebreich Associates

UK daily coal share 2012 – 2020

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 >50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

67 days, 22 hours and 55 minutes without coal

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

APAC EMEA AMER

Quarterly EV sales by region Q1 2012 – Q4 2019

CAGR 66% CAGR 57% CAGR 40%

Source: BNEF

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Billion vehicles on the road % Share of global fleet 20 40 60 80 100 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Million sales

Source: BNEF EVO 2019

Annual global passenger vehicle sales Global passenger vehicle fleet

BNEF electric vehicle outlook to 2040

ICE PHEV BEV

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 billion miles

Source: Liebreich Associates; FRED Note: Miles reported as moving 12 month average; data up to June 2019

Vehicle miles travelled Vehicle miles travelled per person

US transportation trends 1970 – 2019

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 billion miles 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 billion miles

? ? ? ?

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Images: Naked Energy; Climeon; Danfoss; SaltX; Sonnen; Radbot; Optiwatt; PassivSystems; Sunamp; Solidpower

Innovation in heat is cool

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Image: UNFCCC

Paris The world must achieve greenhouse gas neutrality some time in the second half of the century

Paris Agreement December 2015

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Images: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica; Wikipedia Commons

Beyond the Three-Third World

Shipping/air/freight Chemicals Energy access Heat Agriculture Manufacturing

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Liebreich Associates, IEA, BP, World Bank

Global share of power generation by source 1971 - 2019

Then they laugh at you… First they ignore you… Then they fight you… Then Covid-19 comes along

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

BloombergNEF, China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association

China state refiners run rates Major power generators coal consumption

Chinese energy companies during the pandemic

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Europe Asia

Electricity demand in Europe and in Asia

Source: Bruegel Note: average daily electricity load from each week in 2020 with the corresponding week from 2019 for peak hours (08:00-18:00). Percentages are adjusted for differences in temperature..

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Eurocontrol

Flights in Europe 2019-2020

75% decrease y/y

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: EIA

US oil demand

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Road congestion in selected cities

Source: BloombergNEF, TomTom Note: TomTom Congestion Index data

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: TomTom Index

Congestion levels in selected Chinese cities

Note: Weekly averages. Figures are percentages of an equivalent week in 2019

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Shanghai Beijing Wuhan

Daily subway passenger numbers in selected Chinese cities

Source: BloombergNEF, local transport authorities

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Department for Transport

Use of transport modes in the UK compared to 2019

Note: Weekly averages. Figures are percentages of an equivalent week in 2019

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Liebreich Associates, IEA

Covid-19 emissions scenarios

Note: Data for 2020 provisional

Historic emissions Pre-Covid-19 ML “forecast” No IEA Sustainable Recovery Plan 2013 – 2019 GDP growth: 23% Emissions Growth: 3% Impact of Covid-19 Without sustainable recovery plan With sustainable recovery plan

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Liebreich Associates, Google Trends

Google trends

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Cameron Hepburn et.al.

Survey of Fiscal Recovery Policies

T Y S X L M K O D N R Q G H W J F A C I P I B E U V

Positive Environment impact Negative Long run multiplier Low High

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Source: Euractiv, BloombergNEF. Note: Assumes 4 years for the duration of measures that extend for the recovery period of Next Generation EU proposals.

Total budgetary contributions of the EU’s green recovery plan by sector

Buildings: the epicenter of green recovery

369 121 45 10 Buildings Transport Hydrogen Power Euros, billions

Source: Euractiv, BloombergNEF. Note: In 2018, 7.6% of European households were unable to keep their homes adequately warm. This represents approximately 9% of total building floor area. Floor space estimates are from 2013.

EU-27 building floor space by sector

Residential (excluding fuel poor), 65% Residential (fuel poor), 9% Health, 2% Education, 5% Private offices 4% Public offices, 3% Wholesale/retail, 7% Hotels and restaurants, 4% Other 1% 18.9 million square meters

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Prioritise cross-cutting energy efficiency action for its economic, social and environmental benefits Act to unlock efficiency's job creation potential Create greater demand for energy efficiency solutions Focus on finance in the wider context of scaling up action Leverage digital innovation to enhance system-wide efficiency The public sector should lead by example Engage all parts of society Leverage behavioural insights for more effective policy Strengthen international collaboration Raise global energy efficiency ambition

Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency’s recommendations

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23 June 2020 @mliebreich Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

michael@liebreichassociates.com www.liebreich.com @mliebreich

Thanks!