Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles Josh Miller, Senior - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles Josh Miller, Senior - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles Josh Miller, Senior Researcher International Council on Clean Transportation Fourth International Transport Energy Modeling workshop 30-31 October 2018 International Institute for Applied Systems

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Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles

Josh Miller, Senior Researcher International Council on Clean Transportation

Fourth International Transport Energy Modeling workshop 30-31 October 2018 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Schloßplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

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Early action to reduce SLCPs (i.e. black carbon, methane, and HFCs) and LLGHGs is necessary to secure a sustainable future.

Source: Scientific Advisory Panel of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition. Shindell, D. (2018). Scaling up action on SLCPs to address climate change and air pollution. In Science Policy Dialogue. Toronto, Canada.

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2012

  • CCAC launches the Heavy-Duty Vehicles

(HDV) Initiative. 2016

  • HDV Initiative releases a global strategy for

low-sulfur fuels and cleaner diesel vehicles.

  • 36 countries endorse the strategy at the High

Level Assembly of the CCAC in Marrakech. 2018

  • HDV Initiative releases the first of two

annual assessments to monitor progress toward implementing the global strategy. 2019

  • HDV Initiative to release the second report on

global progress toward soot-free vehicles.

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The CCAC Heavy-Duty Vehicles Initiative is working to reduce diesel black carbon (BC) emissions to achieve climate and health benefits.

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  • About 200 individual countries covering 99.8% of world population
  • Diesel on-road vehicles divided into six vehicle types
  • Passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, three-wheeled vehicles
  • Buses and minibuses, medium-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks
  • Bottom-up fleet characterization
  • Sales, stock, vehicle activity, energy use, CO2 and non-CO2 pollutants
  • By model year, calendar year, vehicle type, country
  • Policy impacts
  • New vehicle standards, used import restrictions, fuel sulfur standards
  • Focus on black carbon emissions and non-CO2 temperature impacts

Scope of analysis

Three-wheeled diesel vehicles are only modeled for China and India.

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Diesel road transport fleet emissions model methodology

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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Diesel fuel consumption in road transport has grown eightfold since 1970.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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One quarter of diesel vehicles worldwide are HDVs, but three quarters

  • f on-road diesel consumption and BC emissions are from HDVs.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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About 70% of new HD diesel vehicles originate in 11 major markets.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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World-class “soot-free” standards reduce exhaust PM and BC more than 99% compared with uncontrolled levels, and ~90% compared with earlier standards.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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Fleet average emission factors vary substantially across countries as a result of differing fuel and vehicle standards.

Uncertainties arise from:

  • share of on-road diesel

consumption by vehicle type and emission control level

  • share of high emitters and

magnitude of high emitter emissions

  • volume, age, and emissions

performance of second hand vehicle imports

Source: Follow-up analysis of the results produced for: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles.

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  • Baseline
  • Timeline of vehicle emissions and fuel quality standards that were in force in 2015.
  • Adopted
  • Final regulations adopted as of May 2018, including those with a future implementation date.
  • Global Sulfur Strategy
  • Assumes all countries implement at least Euro 4/IV by 2025 and Euro 6/VI by 2030.
  • High Ambition
  • Assumes all countries implement at least Euro 4/IV by 2021 and Euro 6/VI by 2025.

Four policy scenarios facilitate the evaluation of emissions trends for diesel vehicles and the benefits of further action.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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Ultralow sulfur diesel (ULSD) is a requirement for soot-free vehicles. By 2021, more than 80% of the world’s on-road diesel will be ULSD.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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Since the CCAC initiated work on fuel desulfurization in 2012, a net 17 countries have switched to 10 ppm diesel, and another 17 to 50 ppm.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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The adoption of China VI will increase the share of new HDVs meeting soot-free standards in 2021 from half of global sales to two thirds.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

In 2021...

  • two thirds of new

HD diesel vehicles worldwide will be “soot-free”

  • one fifth of existing

HD diesel vehicles worldwide will be “soot-free”

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The balance of diesel BC emissions is shifting from regions with soot-free standards to regions without such standards.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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Trade blocs and a handful of populous countries are important targets for near-term introduction of soot-free standards.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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Proposed targets:

  • 1. Reduce global SLCP emissions from all sectors by enough to avoid

0.5°C of warming over the next 25 years.

  • 2. Reduce global anthropogenic BC emissions to approximately 75%

below 2010 levels by around 2030.

Members of the CCAC Scientific Advisory Panel have proposed targets to reduce SLCP impacts and BC emissions.

Shindell, D., Borgford-Parnell, N., Brauer, M., Haines, A., Kuylenstierna, J. C. I., Leonard, S. A., … Srivastava, L. (2017). A climate policy pathway for near- and long-term benefits. Science, 356(6337), 493–494. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aak9521

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High Ambition scenario could reduce BC from diesel road transport to 75% below 2010 levels in the 2030 timeframe.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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Soot-free standards could avoid warming in 2050 equivalent to 15.4%

  • f the 0.5℃ SLCP reduction identified in the 2011 UNEP-WMO study.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

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Technical Appendix

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Comparison with ECLIPSE estimates shows good alignment considering uncertainties in multiple determinants of BC emissions.

Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., Heyes, C., Purohit, P., Cofala, J., Rafaj, P., … Schöpp, W. (2017). Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17(14), 8681–8723. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8681-2017

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Definition of vehicle types and trade blocs.

Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018