Global changes in atmospheric concentrations of HFCs and HCFCs: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global changes in atmospheric concentrations of HFCs and HCFCs: assessing the effects of international policy

S.A. Montzka1, B.R. Miller1,2, L. Hu1,3, C. Siso1,2, F. Moore1,2, B.D. Hall1, J.W. Elkins1

1 NOAA/ESRL/GMD, Boulder, CO, USA 2 CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO USA 3 NAS/NRC, Washington D.C., USA.

Acknowledgements:

Many other NOAA colleagues... NOAA & cooperative site personnel from:

 Chinese Meteorological Administration  CSIRO, Australia  Environment Canada  Harvard Univ.  National Science Foundation  SCRIPPS/Humboldt Univ.  US Forest service  Univ. of Bristol, U.K.  Univ. of Colorado INSTAAR  Univ. Wisconsin, Madison  Weizmann Institute, Israel

• M. McFarland, Dupont, USA
• D. Fahey, NOAA/CSD
• D. Godwin, US EPA
• G. Velders, RIVM, Netherlands

NOAA’s Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Program and its Climate Program Office.

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer  Set phase-out schedules for potent ozone-depleting gases (e.g., CFCs)  The transition from HCFCs to HFCs is currently underway…

CFCs HFCs

Ozone Depletion Potential Global Warming Potential

HCFCs

This transition was accelerated by the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol: 1) Capped HCFC production in developing countries for the first time (as of 1 Jan 2013) 2) Could lead to large increases in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), particularly in developing countries (Velders et al., 2009), and radiative forcing…  How have concentrations and emissions of HCFCs and HFCs changed in response?

• ALT

BRW KUM SPO NWR MLO

• CGO

SMO

low alt high alt.

• Halocarbon Surface and Aircraft Sampling Network
• WLG
• •
• PSA

WIS MHD THD LEF HFM SUM

Bi-wkly

(Aircraft)

Daily Flasks

Plus: Oceanic cruises TROICA HIPPO (2009-2011) CARVE

Remote Atmosphere Sampling: Eight sites typically ~3 sample flask pairs/month on average up to 22 year-long records

80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 HCFC-22 (ppt)

spo cgo smo mlo kum nwr brw alt global

HCFC-22 NOAA GC-MS Remote site flask record

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 HFC-134a (ppt)

spo cgo smo mlo kum nwr brw alt global NOAA GCMS flask data

(Montzka et al.)

HFC-134a NOAA GC-MS Remote site flask record

Global Surface Mixing Ratios

Despite the 2007 Adjustments: HCFC concentrations are still increasing …as is total chlorine and radiative forcing from these chemicals Growth rates have changed as production shifted from developed to developing countries (~2004)… But: Increases since 2007 compared to WMO scenario are: * slower for HCFC-22 and -142b, * as projected for HCFC-141b

5 10 15 20 25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

50 100 150 200 250 5 10 15 20 25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

50 100 150 200 250

Global surface mixing ratio (ppt) HCFC-22 HCFC-142b HCFC-141b

Inst A Inst B

WMO Scenario WMO Scenario (WMO Scenarios from Velders and Daniel et al., 2011)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

100 200 300 400 500 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

100 200 300 400 500 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

100 200 300 400 500

Global EMISSION rates derived from global changes

Since 2007: Global emissions have:

• remained constant for HCFC-22
• decreased for HCFC-142b
• increased for HCFC-141b

Compared to the WMO Scenario: Actual emissions were

• smaller for HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b
• similar for 141b

US HCFC-22 emissions (EPA and Hu et al.): * increased in the past… decreasing now?  Are decreases in developed countries now

• ffsetting increases in developing countries?

Hu et al.: following talk Global EMISSIONS (Gg/yr) HCFC-22 HCFC-142b HCFC-141b

US only WMO Scenario WMO Scenario 2007

US EPA Hu et al.

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Summed Global HCFC EMISSIONs

Summed HCFC Emissions

Since 2007 when the Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol were agreed to: Global HCFC emissions have remained nearly constant …even though global production limits applied only after Jan 2013 Ozone and climate benefits… Potential implications for HFCs: Earlier transition to HFCs?

Global EMISSIONS (Gg/yr)

Global atmospheric changes for HFCs:

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

HFC-134a Global surface mixing ratio (ppt)

Inst A Inst B

NOAA data

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Global mean mixing ratio (ppt)

HFC-125 HFC-152a HFC-143a HFC-32 HFC-365mfc HFC-227ea From ongoing flask samples From archived air samples NOAA data

CFC-12 replacement

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Global emission (MtCO

2 -eq/yr)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Global emission (MtCO

2 -eq/yr)

HFC-134a Sum of

• ther HFCs:

Includes: HFC-125, HFC-143a, HFC-32 HFC-152a, HFC-227ea, & HFC-365mfc …but not HFC-23 Velders et al. (2009) Velders et al. (2009)

Global CO2-equivalent emissions of HFCs:

* Global HFC emissions are increasing, consistent with Velders et al. projection— but will this increase accelerate after 2012?

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Global emission (MtCO

2 -eq/yr)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Global emission (MtCO

2 -eq/yr)

HFC-134a Sum of

• ther HFCs:

UNFCCC UNFCCC

Velders et al. (2009) Velders et al. (2009)

Global CO2-equivalent emissions of HFCs:

* Global HFC emissions are increasing, consistent with Velders et al. projection— but will this increase accelerate after 2012? * 40-50% of global HFC-134a emissions are missing from UNFCCC compilations. Either: Transition from ODSs to HFCs is well underway in developing countries  Large inaccuracies exist in UNFCCC reporting from developed countries

Conclusions:

For HCFCs: Atmospheric increases have been slower overall since 2007 than projected. HCFC-22 emissions have been constant since 2007, …decreases in developed country emissions may be offsetting increases expected from developing countries. Summed global HCFC emissions have not increased substantially since the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol were agreed to, …and have likely reached their peak. For HFCs: Velders et al. (2009) projections for HFC emissions are very good through 2012. Reduced releases of HCFC have not caused larger than expected HFC emissions, though large increases are projected for the future… And: Discrepancies with emissions reported to the UNFCCC may suggest that the transition from HCFCs to high-GWP HFCs is well underway in developing countries…

10 20 30 40 50 60 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs)

Prod non-A5 Series12 Series1

HCFC production in the Montreal Protocol:

...phased out in different countries with different schedules

Year

Reported HCFC production, 2007

Non-A5 countries

max allowed (non-A5)

As of 2007:

Developed countries (non-A5): Decreasing, below max.

10 20 30 40 50 60 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs)

Prod_A5 Prod non-A5 Series12 Series1

10 20 30 40 50 60 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs)

Global Prod Prod_A5 Prod non-A5 Series10 Series12 Series9

10 20 30 40 50 60 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs)

Prod_A5 Prod non-A5 Series10 Series12 Series9 Series1

As of 2007:

Developed countries (non-A5): Decreasing, below max. Developing countries (A5): Increasing rapidly, no limit until 2015.

The 2007 MP Adjustments:

* non-A5 lower in 2010 * A5: Limited as of Jan 2013 based on 2009-2010 levels

Production since 2007:

Globally stable,

?

Year

Reported HCFC production, 2007

Non-A5 countries A5 countries

max allowed (non-A5)

HCFC production in the Montreal Protocol:

...phased out in different countries with different schedules

Global total HCFC production ...after 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol

10 20 30 40 50 60 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs)

Global Prod Prod_A5 Prod non-A5 Series10 Series12 Series9 Series1

As of 2007:

Developed countries (non-A5): Decreasing, below max. Developing countries (A5): Increasing rapidly, no limit until 2015.

The 2007 MP Adjustments:

* non-A5 lower in 2010 * A5: Limited as of Jan 2013 based on 2009-2010 levels

Production since 2007:

Globally stable, though could have increased…

How about emissions? implications for HFCs?

Year Non-A5 countries A5 countries

HCFC production in the Montreal Protocol:

...phased out in different countries with different schedules

WMO scenario Global Global total

Peak ODS production in late 1980s was ~1500 ODP-Kt