Emissions Concentrations Impacts Climate (GtC/yr) (ppmv) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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emissions concentrations impacts climate gtc yr ppmv
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Emissions Concentrations Impacts Climate (GtC/yr) (ppmv) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 11, 2023 9 likes •134 views

Emissions Concentrations Impacts Climate (GtC/yr) (ppmv) Sea-level rise ( ) Heat waves Drought Extremes etc. Emissions Concentrations Impacts Climate (GtC/yr) (ppmv) Sea-level rise ( ) Heat

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Emissions (GtC/yr) Concentrations (ppmv) Climate (℃) Impacts

  • Sea-level rise
  • Heat waves
  • Drought
  • Extremes
  • etc.
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SLIDE 2

Climate Sensitivity (℃/ppmv)

  • Cloud feedbacks
  • Non-linear
  • Depends on timescale!

Emissions (GtC/yr) Concentrations (ppmv) Climate (℃) Impacts

  • Sea-level rise
  • Heat waves
  • Drought
  • Extremes
  • etc.
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SLIDE 3

Carbon Cycle

  • Ocean uptake
  • Land uptake
  • Feedbacks etc.

Climate Sensitivity (℃/ppmv)

  • Cloud feedbacks
  • Non-linear
  • Depends on timescale!

Emissions (GtC/yr) Concentrations (ppmv) Climate (℃) Impacts

  • Sea-level rise
  • Heat waves
  • Drought
  • Extremes
  • etc.
slide-4
SLIDE 4

Carbon Cycle

  • Ocean uptake
  • Land uptake
  • Feedbacks etc.

Climate Sensitivity (℃/ppmv)

  • Cloud feedbacks
  • Non-linear
  • Depends on timescale!

Emissions (GtC/yr) Concentrations (ppmv) Climate (℃) Impacts

  • Sea-level rise
  • Heat waves
  • Drought
  • Extremes
  • etc.

Carbon-Climate Response (℃/GtC)

  • Function of cumulative emissions
  • Basis for carbon budget, Paris, etc.
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SLIDE 5

Solomon 2009, PNAS Year Atmospheric CO2concentration

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SLIDE 6

Solomon 2009, PNAS Year Atmospheric CO2concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion

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SLIDE 7

Solomon 2009, PNAS Year Atmospheric CO2concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion Year Temperature response

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SLIDE 8

Solomon 2009, PNAS

Ocean carbon uptake Ocean heat uptake Constant temp. response!

+ =

Year Atmospheric CO2concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion Year Temperature response

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SLIDE 9

Solomon 2009, PNAS

Ocean carbon uptake Ocean heat uptake Constant temp. response!

+ =

Year Atmospheric CO2concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion Year Temperature response

Ceasing emissions today will fix surface temperatures at today’s values, for hundreds of years.

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Solomon 2009, PNAS

Ocean carbon uptake Ocean heat uptake Constant temp. response!

+ =

Year Atmospheric CO2concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion Year Temperature response

Ceasing emissions today will fix surface temperatures at today’s values, for hundreds of years.

(sea level and deep ocean temps, however, will continue to rise)

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SLIDE 11

Value of CCR ?

Year

Williams 2017, Journal of Climate CCR for model ensemble under emissions consistent with 1%/yr CO2 increase

CCR (℃/1000 GtC)

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SLIDE 12

Carbon Cycle

  • Ocean uptake
  • Land uptake
  • Feedbacks etc.

Climate Sensitivity (℃/ppmv)

  • Cloud feedbacks
  • Non-linear
  • Depends on timescale
  • Ignores carbon cycle

Emissions (GtC/yr) Concentrations (ppmv) Climate (℃) Impacts

  • Sea-level rise
  • Heat waves
  • Drought
  • Extremes
  • etc.

Carbon-Climate Response (℃/GtC)

  • Function of cumulative emissions
  • Basis for carbon budget, Paris, etc.
  • Timescale-independent
  • Accounts for carbon cycle