Global and economic growth prospects www.stephenarcher.eu Agenda - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global and economic growth prospects www.stephenarcher.eu Agenda - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 13, 2022 22 likes •604 views

Global and economic growth prospects www.stephenarcher.eu Agenda Forecasting : For you and by you The outlook for the world The view for Africa Outliers: Trump and the breakup of Europe Major change ahead 1900! Relative

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Global and economic growth prospects

www.stephenarcher.eu

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Agenda

  • Forecasting : For you and by you
  • The outlook for the world
  • The view for Africa
  • Outliers: Trump and the breakup of Europe
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Major change ahead –1900!

China CUG

Relative Share of World Manufacturing Output 1750-1900

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NOfP

Share of world GDP 1969-2009

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“In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009”

Tim Harford-Financial Times

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IMF’s revisions of world growth

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Economic forecasting ignores too much of the real behaviour of people

Traditional Economics

Economics agents act rationally 100% of the time, maximising their lifetime happiness; utility

Psychology

People might be predisposed, or conditioned by their environment to behave in certain ways

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“You should do the mathematics but then burn the paper and write it down in

  • words. Maths and models should be ‘aids to

thinking’, not substitutes for it”.

Alfred Marshall -the founder of Cambridge economics

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Global Probity …. ?

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(2001) (2014/2015) (2013)

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Bribery scandals in the news

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World Corruption Index

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“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that you'll do things differently.”

Warren Buffett

Credibility

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Outlook

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2016 GDP Outlook

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Cracks in the BRIC (s)

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Corruption by country

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Emerging acronyms: BRICS, MINT s and EAGLEs

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RISKS

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The Terror

  • f Terror
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Dresden

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G82013 Ireland

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Global outlook

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‘’In football the game is complicated by….. ..the presence of the

  • ther team ’’
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  • Debt stimulated 2009 -2011 and failed
  • Debt burdened 2011…
  • Over capacity
  • Slowed demand
  • Stimulus not working
  • Property bubble

China – dropping the ball?

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Debts of counties of the European Union in % of GDP

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The market can remain irrational…

John Maynard Keynes 1883 - 1946

...for longer than you can remain insolvent.

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Conditions for an effective fiscal pact in Eurozone

Central fiscal autonomy Central monetary autonomy Central control of banks Central budgeting across all nations Central political leadership

Regional and sustainable electorate acquiescence to the above…

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Choose to be optimistic it feels better.

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Working Better Re-Engineering Working Cheaper Out-Sourcing Working Elsewhere Globalisation

Three ages of competitiveness

1980 1990 2000

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The Fourth Age

In skilling

Source: Hansen Medical

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Electronic connectivity

“The biggest revolution since the telephone and the radio combined”

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Electronic connectivity

  • The final stage in shrinking the global village
  • Expertise can be found and used more easily
  • Small enterprises can compete with big
  • Intellect and skills can out gun scale and volume
  • Intellectual property access is opened up
  • Corporates can achieve differentiation with virtual resources
  • Speed and time are no longer barriers

The impact

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Areas of greatest earning power in emerging economies

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Workforce size will expand with population growth

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Stand out from the crowd

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Thank you

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www.stephenarcher.eu

Questions?